“Prismatic Evolutions” Pull Rates Revealed, Special Illustration Rares Twice as Easy to Pull!

By: Water Pokémon Master · Posted Posted onJan 17, 2025 at 1:54 PM · 17 Comments

The pull rates for Prismatic Evolutions have been determined by our friends at TCGplayer based on 1,200 booster pack openings. This sample size is smaller than usual because this is a special set, but it still gives us a good idea of the pull rates.

At 1 in 45 packs, Special Illustration Rares are now twice as easy to pull as the last four sets. In Surging Sparks and before, they were found in roughly every 85 to 90 packs.

The last time they were this easy to pull was in Paradox Rift, where they were in 1 out of 47 packs. Before then, the rate was 1 out of 32 packs.

However, there are more Special Illustration Rares in this set than usual — 32! This means the chance to pull a specific SIR is 1 in 1,440 packs. This will make it much harder to pull an Umbreon ex.

Poke Ball reverse holo can be found in 1 out of every 3 packs. Master Balls can be found in 1 out of every 20 packs.

Hyper Rare gold cards are found in 1 out of 180 packs, which is nearly the same as Surging Sparks. The pull rates of gold cards have steadily become rarer over time. (In earlier Scarlet & Violet sets, they were in 1 out of ~54 packs.)

All other rarities remain roughly the same as previous Scarlet & Violet sets.

Ultra Rares are found in 1 out of 13 packs, which is slightly easier than previous sets.

ACE SPEC cards have a pull rate of 1 out of 21 packs, almost the same as when they were introduced in Temporal Forces.

You can see TCGplayer’s graphics below for the main Scarlet & Violet sets.

Check out our Prismatic Evolutions set guide for the card list, products, and everything else to know about the set!

View thread (17 replies)
Checking the prices on TCGplayer for Kieran and the Blueberry Academy Elite 4 just took 50 years off of my life. Time to wait a month or three before getting them !
 
Man this is weird. It’s almost like they completely changed the pull rates just before the set released…

Also, do we know anything about God Pack HR ?
 
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Yeah… no. I’d much rather see a SIR pull rate on-par with or better than the pre-PAR sets, the fact that you could open 200+ packs without getting a single SIR is just sad.

But then again that’s why I’m critical of special sets in general rather than being critical of Prismatic Evolutions on its own. The sooner the international market embraces JPN-style releases the better.
GaKi134 said:
Man this is weird. It’s almost like they completely changed the pull rates just before the set released…

Also, do we know anything about God Pack HR ?
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Seeing the second-hand market for some cards, they clearly didn’t change enough to actually matter.
 
Wait, are they really that good? Everyone's been saying they're really hard, at least prerelease pulls were.
 
Prismatic Evolutions Pull Rates based on 1,200 pack openings but all the previous SV set data based on 8,000 pack openings? Hmm, I don't know if I trust these numbers... at only 1200 packs it still weighs on the "got a lucky batch of packs" for me. But I hope the second print run makes this ratio true so I can afford to buy the singles haha
 
KillerObstagoon said:
Prismatic Evolutions Pull Rates based on 1,200 pack openings but all the previous SV set data based on 8,000 pack openings? Hmm, I don't know if I trust these numbers... at only 1200 packs it still weighs on the "got a lucky batch of packs" for me. But I hope the second print run makes this ratio true so I can afford to buy the singles haha
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Hello! I am a math major and can reverse-engineer the data to perform an analysis:

I only looked between Prismatic and Surging because that reduces minuscule inter-set variability, and Surging is basically dead-set on the average for post-Temporal data. From 8640 packs of Surging and 1260 packs of Prismatic, the odds that the two have equal pull rates are around .15% (Z=3.17), so yes, the difference is significant and is very likely not just a lucky batch.

Rarity​
SSP​
PRE​
Z​
p​
Double Rare.1694.1651-0.386.6992
Ultra Rare.0675.07462.455.0141
ACE Spec.0503.0468-0.536.5917
Special Illustration Rare.0115.02223.172.00151
Hyper Rare.0053.00560.105.9162
 
I got two binders, one for me and my daughter. Ten packs between us. I got 1 ex out of five packs. She got one ex, one ace spec, and two poke balls (one Pokémon and one on a trainer card). She definitely got the better binder lol.
 
This amazing work from TCG Player is of course a small sample size where even slightly incorrect distribution of the different tier of cards can significantly affect results. I ripped 49 packs yesterday, and sadly for me my success (or lack there of) didn't reflect the pull rates published above. No SIR, no Master ball, just 4 ex double rares (that actually stings the most), 3 ultra rare trainers, 11 common/uncommon Poke balls and 3 rare Poke balls. But hey, I got 4 ACE specs!!!
 
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