Discussion April Data Analysis

21times

Aspiring Trainer
Member
Hi Beachbums! Time again for my monthly review. In April, I went 225-206, a win percentage of 52%. I played an unbelievable number of different decks – 48 in total. Many of these decks have 0-5 or 1-4 records – a dozen of these decks actually had five matches or less and only one (or zero) wins. My best decks this month:

· Decidueye Tauros Vileplume 32 wins, 9 losses, 78%

· Decidueye Tauros (no Vileplume) 12 wins, 4 losses, 75%

· Volcanion 16 wins, 6 losses, 73%


I had the advantage 138 times (32%), neither of us had the advantage 138 times (32%), and my opponent had the advantage 153 times (36%). In case you’re doing the math, I did count two matches I played against friends. I won 57% of the time when I had the advantage, 53% when neither of us had the advantage, and 46% when my opponent had the advantage.


What is interesting is that this is the first time in a while that my opponent has had the advantage more than I’ve had the advantage. I’m not sure if this is because my win percentage was lower because I was playing so many bad decks. I have wondered if there’s anything more to the algorithm than just won-loss percentage. If I have no GX’s or EX’s and I go up against a deck that’s loaded with them, does the algorithm see that and give my opponent the advantage? I still think that it just looks at straight won-loss percentage, but I’m starting to wonder if there’s some additional logic.

Since SUM’s release on February 4th, I’ve won 64% when I have the advantage, 54% when neither of us have the advantage, and 44% when my opponent has the advantage.


So here’s one of the most interesting stats of the month: against decks with abilities, I went 149-163 (48%). Against decks without abilities, I went 76-43, 64%. This is a HUGE discrepancy and should make you think twice about playing decks without abilities. I faced decks with abilities 72% of the time (312 out of 431 matches), which is less than last month’s 75%. Since SUM, I’m 61% against decks without abilities, 52% against decks with abilities, and I’ve gone up against decks with abilities 74% of the time.


And one of the oddest stats: I went 44 and 26 against decks that ran hammers (Crushing, Enhanced, Flare Grunt, or Skull Grunt are what I count as hammers). I won 63% of my matches against decks running that kind of disruption. I went 181 and 180 against decks that did not run hammers. That seems so odd to me, it seems completely backwards that I do better against decks with hammers than those that don’t have hammers, but the stats are what they are. In April, I faced decks with hammers only 16% of the time. Since SUM, I’ve seen decks with hammers 17% of the time. Since SUM, I win 55% of the time against decks with hammers and 54% of the time against decks without hammers.


But probably the biggest swing in stats was with special energy. I saw decks with special energy only 51% of the time in April (222 times in 431 matches). Last month it was 55% and since SUM 54%. In April, I won 49% of the time when my opponent played special energy and 56% when he did not. Since SUM, I win 52% of the time when my opponent plays special energy and 57% of the time when he does not.


The most common Pokemon I saw in April and the number of times I faced them:

Tauros GX_33

Oranguru_31

Lurantis GX_23

Lapras GX_20

Decidueye GX_19

M Mewtwo EX_18

Solgaleo GX_17

Espeon GX_14

Passimian_14

Volcanion EX_13

Volcanion_13

Umbreon GX_13

Vileplume_12

Manaphy EX_12

Garbodor_10

Mew_10

Darkrai EX_10

Talonflame_9

Lugia EX_9

Wobbuffet_8

Octillery_8

Yveltal_6

Yveltal EX_6

Regice_5

M Rayquaza EX_5

Vaporeon_5

Palkia EX_5


And how well Pokemon did against me in April (Pokemon, Wins, Total, Win Pct):


Vaporeon_5_5_1

Volcanion EX_13_17_0.76

Manaphy EX_12_16_0.75

Lurantis GX_23_32_0.72

Palkia EX_5_7_0.71

M Rayquaza EX_5_7_0.71

Vileplume_12_17_0.71

Garbodor_10_15_0.67

Primarina GX_4_6_0.67

Flareon_4_6_0.67

Decidueye GX_19_30_0.63

Lapras GX_20_32_0.63

Mew_10_16_0.63

Umbreon GX_13_21_0.62

Wobbuffet_8_13_0.62

Passimian_14_23_0.61

Talonflame_9_15_0.6

Yveltal EX_6_10_0.6

Mewtwo_3_5_0.6

Dragonair_3_5_0.6

Diancie EX_3_5_0.6

M Scizor EX_3_5_0.6

Greninja Break_4_7_0.57

Solgaleo GX_17_30_0.57

Tauros GX_33_60_0.55

M Mewtwo EX_18_33_0.55

Oranguru_31_58_0.53

Lugia EX_9_17_0.53

Regice_5_10_0.5

Dragonite EX_4_8_0.5

Unown_4_8_0.5

Vespiquen_4_8_0.5

Espeon EX_3_6_0.5

Lugia_3_6_0.5

Ariados_3_6_0.5

Zoroark Break_4_9_0.44

Zoroark_4_9_0.44

M Alakazam EX_3_7_0.43

Raichu_3_7_0.43

Shiinotic_3_7_0.43

Mew EX_3_7_0.43

Typhlosion_3_7_0.43

Octillery_8_20_0.4

Yveltal_6_15_0.4

Lycanroc GX_2_5_0.4

Giratina EX_2_5_0.4

Garchomp_3_8_0.38

Darkrai EX_10_27_0.37

Espeon GX_14_38_0.37

Gumshoos GX_4_12_0.33

Glaceon EX_2_6_0.33

M Gardevoir EX_3_12_0.25

Lunala GX_2_9_0.22

Houndoom EX_1_8_0.13



Again, something to keep in mind was that a pretty good number of these matches came against decks that were pretty much uncompetitive. That may skew these numbers a bit.


Since SUM, the most common Pokemon and the number of times I’ve faced them:


Tauros GX_83

Oranguru_56

Lurantis GX_47

Darkrai EX_44

Decidueye GX_39

Garbodor_39

Volcanion EX_35

Volcanion_35

M Mewtwo EX_35

Lapras GX_33

Umbreon GX_31

Espeon GX_30

Vileplume_29

Manaphy EX_27

Passimian_26

Solgaleo GX_25

Yveltal EX_24

Yveltal_23

Octillery_23

Mew_20

Talonflame_19

Lugia EX_16

Giratina EX_15

M Rayquaza EX_15

Zoroark Break_12

Glaceon EX_12

Vespiquen_11

M Gardevoir EX_11

Zoroark_11

Dragonite EX_10

Wobbuffet_9

Typhlosion_9

Lycanroc GX_9

Regice_9

Carbink Break_9

Articuno_9

Gumshoos GX_9

Starmie_9

Flareon EX_9

Xerneas Break_8

Greninja Break_8

Unown_8

Shiinotic_8

Jolteon EX_8

M Scizor EX_8

Flareon_7

M Alakazam EX_7

Rainbow Road_7

Palkia EX_7

Raichu_6

Primarina GX_6

Golduck Break_6

Lunala GX_6


And since SUM, how well the top decks have done against me (Pokemon, wins, total, pct):


Jolteon EX_8_11_0.73

M Rayquaza EX_15_21_0.71

Magearna EX_5_7_0.71

Vikavolt_5_7_0.71

Lycanroc GX_9_13_0.69

M Scizor EX_8_12_0.67

Vileplume_29_45_0.64

Rainbow Road_7_11_0.64

Decidueye GX_39_62_0.63

Vaporeon_5_8_0.63

Xerneas Break_8_13_0.62

Volcanion EX_35_58_0.6

Passimian_26_43_0.6

Articuno_9_15_0.6

Tauros GX_83_141_0.59

Garbodor_39_67_0.58

Lurantis GX_47_83_0.57

M Altaria EX_4_7_0.57

Umbreon GX_31_55_0.56

Wobbuffet_9_16_0.56

Volcanion_35_64_0.55

Yveltal EX_24_44_0.55

Mew_20_37_0.54

M Alakazam EX_7_13_0.54

Dragonite EX_10_19_0.53

Carbink Break_9_17_0.53

Shiinotic_8_15_0.53

Lapras GX_33_63_0.52

Vespiquen_11_21_0.52

Manaphy EX_27_53_0.51

Talonflame_19_38_0.5

Starmie_9_18_0.5

Zygarde EX_5_10_0.5

Salamence EX_4_8_0.5

Klefki_3_6_0.5

Regirock EX_3_6_0.5

Dodrio_3_6_0.5

Delphox Break_3_6_0.5

Entei_3_6_0.5

Coballion_3_6_0.5

Trevenant EX_3_6_0.5

Oranguru_56_115_0.49

Solgaleo GX_25_52_0.48

Zoroark Break_12_25_0.48

Flareon EX_9_19_0.47

Flareon_7_15_0.47

Darkrai EX_44_96_0.46

Golduck Break_6_13_0.46

Espeon GX_30_67_0.45

Typhlosion_9_20_0.45

M Mewtwo EX_35_79_0.44

Octillery_23_52_0.44

Primarina GX_6_14_0.43

Sceptile EX_3_7_0.43

M Audino EX_3_7_0.43

Latios EX_3_7_0.43

Espeon EX_3_7_0.43

Dragonair_3_7_0.43

Lugia EX_16_38_0.42

Giratina EX_15_37_0.41

Glaceon EX_12_29_0.41

Gumshoos GX_9_22_0.41

Yveltal_23_57_0.4

Raichu_6_15_0.4

Raikou_4_10_0.4

Garchomp_4_10_0.4

Palkia EX_7_18_0.39

M Gardevoir EX_11_29_0.38

Regice_9_24_0.38

Hypno_5_13_0.38

Spinda_3_8_0.38

Mewtwo_3_8_0.38

Greninja Break_8_23_0.35

Zoroark_11_32_0.34

Unown_8_24_0.33

Ariados_4_12_0.33

Slowking_3_9_0.33

Rattata_2_6_0.33

Ho-Oh EX_2_6_0.33

Pidgeot EX_2_6_0.33

Incineroar GX_2_6_0.33

Bunnelby_5_16_0.31

Lugia_4_13_0.31

Mew EX_4_13_0.31

Houndoom EX_3_10_0.3

Gyarados_3_10_0.3

Lunala GX_6_23_0.26

Jolteon_2_8_0.25

Gengar_2_8_0.25

M Blastoise EX_2_8_0.25

Xerneas_2_10_0.2

Raticate_1_6_0.17

Dragonite_1_6_0.17

M Charizard EX_1_6_0.17

Electrode_1_8_0.13


I know there’s a lot to crunch here this month. Thanks for reading. As always, I hope this adds insight to your game prep.
 
What exactly do you mean by "pokemon with abilities"?

Do you mean that they had a lot of/several pokemon with abilities, or just that they played a shaymin-ex? I'd be interested to see what the win/loss is if you ignore shaymin in calculating ability vs no ability.


This is really cool though! I would love to do the same thing if I weren't so lazy :D
 
Sorry I guessed I stopped explaining the rules I go by a couple of months ago.

When I say Pokemon with abilities, I mean all Pokemon with the exception of Shaymin EX, Hoopa EX, and Talonflame because it is very difficult to stop those abilities from being used with Garbodor. Back at rotation last September, I wanted to track how often Garb was played. I knew there were a number of really good decks - Volcanion, Greninja, Giratina, etc. with abilities that I wanted to use Garb to shut down. I have tracked ability usage since then.

Glad you liked it, thanks for the feedback. Hope it gives you something to think about.
 
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