Expanded is my jam.
The BIGGEST factor to consider is how much Alolan Muk and Garbodor (Garbotoxin) will be played. The announcement of Hex Maniac being banned got a lot of people thinking that Energy acceleration decks like Malamar, Bronzong, Eels, and Archie's Blastoise could make a huge comeback. Some of these decks (namely Bronzong and Archie's Blastoise) are really decent and could make a splash, so inertia takes effect and Garbodor would make sense to stop these decks in their tracks.
If the meta is oversaturated in Garb, the above becomes irrelevant. If the meta is undersaturated in Garbodor, then Energy acceleration decks are to be expected.
Also, for a regional standpoint, I'd expect about 75% of people in Portland to copypasta what was played in top 32 in Roakoke, Virginia because Expanded is a red-headed stepchild format of sorts.
- Zoroark variants - it's a bit hard to call what will be the superior variant. LonZoroark seems to be the favorite going in because they were including Alolan Muk already. There's going to be ZoroCargo and ZoroEggs. Maybe ZoroGarb. That said, it has been noted that, without Puzzle of Time, the deck doesn't run as clean as it used to. Kinda sucks when you min/max a deck so hard that when you remove some of it's components, it runs like a car at 100,000 miles and needs its first oil change.
- Buzzwole - This is a safe variant to run. Hits hard, goes against Zoroark, super aggressive. And the way it's built can tackle weird stuff like Trevenant.
- Psychic Toolbox - This is the deck that won the October 2017 regional. It looks like a good pick with Buzzwole being a more dominant force and the meta having less resource recovery. The deck is built to play the long-con and can absolutely dumpster decks using Special Energy due to Drampa GX. That said, even pros have noted that its a difficult toolbox deck to run. So if you want to practice with it, start doing it now and not 2 weeks before an event or your future will be filled with tears.
- Trevenant - The only reason why this deck was played was because of the T1 Item-lock donk. Now that Wally is gone, there's not much a reason to play it. IT does gain the new baby Psychic Tapu Lele as something that can mess with their damage counters to score easier KOs, considering that the deck has always had a problem closing games; Tapu Lele can close games a bit faster. I think people are going to play it, but I think Seismitoad variants are a better play.
- Night March - Peter Kica stated on his Twitter that Night March is dead. He's been running Night March forever, so if he says it's dead, I'll believe it. Especially considering that Puzzles became such a HUGE mainstay in the deck and allowed it to play a lot more loose. Now it seems like a complicated aggro deck with little recovery and REALLY vulnerable to Karen.
- Wailord EX - This is viable for Portland, I have my doubts as to how viable it'll be when Lost Thunder comes out as there are some Grass-type Pokemon who can effectively KO Wailord EX with minimal effort. I'm also convinced that Volcanion will be able to handle Wailord with Blacephalon GX being able to OHKO Wailord EX as well.
- Volcanion EX - More viable now that Hex Maniac is gone. Archie's Blastoise MAY prevent it from being played a lot, but it being able to Lysandre Prism for SIX can REALLY hurt certain builds and cinch games. It think the deck will be more viable with Blacephalon GX and Heat Factory Prism Star in Lost Thunder.
- Seismitoad variants - I'm not sure which is the BEST variant to run, but I like Seismitoad for Portland. Almost no one will run Pokemon Ranger, so as long as you can keep attacking, Item-lock sticks. It's damage output is garbage, but the deck is all about accumulated pressure. I have doubts as to how good it will be in Anaheim and Dallas due to Grass-type Pokemon in Lost Thunder if they become a thing.
- Archie's Blastoise - This is the only Energy acceleration deck that I think will be the best version running into a regional. The deck has a really good matchup spread and can T1 Archie's Ace in the Hole if it has the appropriate components. That said, it doesn't happen often and the deck has a tendency to brick; albeit, not as often as Greninja BREAK. The big issue is that the deck is REALLY tight on deckspace, so anyone that faces it will know pretty much 58-60 cards in your deck.
- Sabeleye/Garb - Anyone that says, "it lost Puzzles, it's dead! Hurr durr!", doesn't realize that the deck was functioning and WINNING before Puzzle of Time was even a thing. Ghetsis was the big card that was preventing this deck from being better. If anything, the loss of Ghetsis helps out WAY more than the loss of Puzzle hurts it. That said, the deck isn't going to be reactive, so you have to make spot-on calls for Junk Hunt every turn. Garbodor helps with Ability-lock, so there's that. I will say this, unless you are practicing with the deck now, or are already good with the deck, don't consider it for Portland 2 weeks before the event. I've been playing control decks since 1998 and I've been running Sableye-Garb and a Sableye variant off and on for the last year. The deck is hard to pilot.
- Rotoms - I have heard that these are seeing a bit of play on PTCGO. With Trevenant and Seismitoad potentially being a thing, I'd be wary of playing them unless you ABSOLUTELY KNOW FOR SURE that your meta/regional meta won't have them.
So let's say they aren't in the meta, Garbodor and Alolan Muk will be a thing and any deck you face that has them is like writing a blank check to them for a free win. As much as I want Rotoms to be a thing, let memes be memes.
I remember the Japanese player that played Hippopotas + Electrode GX and ran DEEP in a Japanese tournament said that the deck only works in 'best of one' like a League Challenge or a Cup. But once you start playing 'best 2 out of 3', you're done. It's easy to play around if you know what's going to happen.
I'm sure there's some that I have left off, if anyone has any suggestions, let me know and I'll update
