I point to your attention the public XLS https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByFlyUy0nCCURmdZeEZoWmFOU0E/edit
So, A LOT of peolpe liked my Talonflame posts both here and elsewhere (I guess it's a good sign), so I did statistics with Greedy Dice.
These are very different, and I don't expect to get a lot of agreement here, but it's something to consider.
With Talonflame, we had a...difficult task of accounting for 386.2 million combinations of the first 7 cards drawn from the deck. This is easy. What's not easy, however, is predicting the next 6 cards.
To account for all of the possibilities, we need to consider from the first 7 followed by the first 6:
The first thing we realize in contrast to the Talonflame statistics, is that 60C7 (the combinations of opening cards) are FULLY accounted for with just analyzing how many basics we have, without the target card.
In order for me to first determine Greedy Dice in the opening hand, I need to run 2-10 basics, with 0-4 greedy dice in the opening hand.
THEN, of those combinations, we have to figure out how many have Greedy dice in the prize pile - anywhere from 0 to 4.
Is it possible to run the numbers? Maybe if I feel like being an insomniac again. But for now, I'll just pose some simple numbers to ponder in the spreadsheet. Just to prove I'm not lazy, you have 8.86 Quadrillion non-mulligan draws of opening hands (60C7) and prizes (53C6) which is more than Excel can really display anyway. The math is so tedious, I don't even want to attack it, it's making my head spin.
Of the 386.2 million combinations of the opening hand, running 4 dice, 231.9 million of those hit 0 dice. Of the 22.957 million combinations of prizes that follow, 8.97 million have one or more dice - 1.3 million have 2 or more.
These odds are...ridiculous. You either have to play this with no other hope of winning (fun decks,) or with real strategy in mind to take more than 1 prize card already (deltaPlus Articuno at worlds strikes me as one. Umbreon-EX if you are playing against Mega-Evolutions is another.
The other way of treating this math is by ignoring individual possibilities (and again ignoring mulligans.)
graywh on the official TCG forums treated it as 1 Basic that you MUST play, and 12 more cards are distributed, six of which are prizes. That gives 59C6 as total, or about 45.06 million combinations.
So, A LOT of peolpe liked my Talonflame posts both here and elsewhere (I guess it's a good sign), so I did statistics with Greedy Dice.
These are very different, and I don't expect to get a lot of agreement here, but it's something to consider.
With Talonflame, we had a...difficult task of accounting for 386.2 million combinations of the first 7 cards drawn from the deck. This is easy. What's not easy, however, is predicting the next 6 cards.
To account for all of the possibilities, we need to consider from the first 7 followed by the first 6:
- How many are mulligans?
- How many have greedy dice in the opening hand?
- How many have basics, and what are their probabilities?
The first thing we realize in contrast to the Talonflame statistics, is that 60C7 (the combinations of opening cards) are FULLY accounted for with just analyzing how many basics we have, without the target card.
In order for me to first determine Greedy Dice in the opening hand, I need to run 2-10 basics, with 0-4 greedy dice in the opening hand.
THEN, of those combinations, we have to figure out how many have Greedy dice in the prize pile - anywhere from 0 to 4.
Is it possible to run the numbers? Maybe if I feel like being an insomniac again. But for now, I'll just pose some simple numbers to ponder in the spreadsheet. Just to prove I'm not lazy, you have 8.86 Quadrillion non-mulligan draws of opening hands (60C7) and prizes (53C6) which is more than Excel can really display anyway. The math is so tedious, I don't even want to attack it, it's making my head spin.
Of the 386.2 million combinations of the opening hand, running 4 dice, 231.9 million of those hit 0 dice. Of the 22.957 million combinations of prizes that follow, 8.97 million have one or more dice - 1.3 million have 2 or more.
These odds are...ridiculous. You either have to play this with no other hope of winning (fun decks,) or with real strategy in mind to take more than 1 prize card already (deltaPlus Articuno at worlds strikes me as one. Umbreon-EX if you are playing against Mega-Evolutions is another.
The other way of treating this math is by ignoring individual possibilities (and again ignoring mulligans.)
graywh on the official TCG forums treated it as 1 Basic that you MUST play, and 12 more cards are distributed, six of which are prizes. That gives 59C6 as total, or about 45.06 million combinations.
- It gives us a rough sum proability of 64% chance no dice show in the prize pile - these could be in the hand, or in the deck, but the numbers do not tell us much.
- If you are looking in terms of building a deck, the odds are pretty close.
- If you have two identical decks, and you're betting money as to who will win, and you can see both player's hands, mine probably gives better situational pictures.
- Or if you are playing, and you want to see "do I concede immediately," but it's irrelevant anyway.
