Finished Mafia LI: Senate Subterfuge~Game Over!

[Vracken]

Certamen: Ludi Circenses

Salve, omnes! Today’s certamen will be held in the circus, as we will watch a wonderful chariot race! As always, there are four teams competing: the Reds, the Whites, the Greens, and the Blues. Your job is to bet on the winners. Just submit who you predict will finish in what place, like this example submission:

Spoiler

1. Reds
2. Whites
3. Greens
4. Blues

Whoever correctly predicts the winner will win this certamen. If more than one player predicts the winner, whoever correctly predicts the winner and second place will win, etc. If nobody is correct at a tiebreaker, we’ll move on to the next place. If two or more players are tied for winning, the player to submit their prediction first will win.
The standings will be completely randomized, but there’s more than just a guess at play. If the Reds win, the winner will gain the power to throw a player in jail tonight, preventing them from performing or being targeted by any action. If the Whites win, the winner will get to hide behind a player tonight. All actions that would target them will be redirected to that player, but if that player is not aligned with the Loyalists, the player hiding will die. If the Greens win, the winner will deflect all actions used on them the next two night onto the player that used them (including the nightkill). If the Blues win, the winner will get to target a dead player and learn who they targeted every night and their results. No matter what, the winner will remain completely anonymous if they want it to remain that way.

You are not allowed to communicate about this certamen in-thread, but you are allowed to discuss it in any chats.
The first [⅔ rounded down of those alive] players to like this post get to participate in this certamen, along with any players with an ability that allows them to do such.

 

[NinjaPenguin]

He is technically not host-confirmed scum because we have seen what host confirmation looks like, and it includes the line "This is not to be doubted in any way, shape, or form. is host confirmed to be ." Lele's flip did not include that line.

@Ninja Penguin / @Vracken, should Lele's flip have included that line?

"This is not to be doubted in any way, shape, or form. is host confirmed to be ." is exclusively for that specific occurrence.
The results of the Oracle at Delphi, as with everything else in this game, will not get that explicit guarantee.

 

[Celever]

I'm currently voting Lele ...?

Exactly

This is actually worth noting for the sake of argument: iirc NP has been very vocal in the past about his dislike of traditional seer roles. So there's a decent chance that there's something screwy with this one.

I agree: there's a genuine possibility that Lele is telling the truth and that it's not his role, on paper. His defence hasn't been great and the tone has been off, but this seems like a really weird role for NP and Vracken to include in the game because neither of them like traditional seers, and it seems a little unbalanced.

Whoa whoa what? No you haven't; you've said turbolynching him was a bad idea. Do you believe it's a bad idea to lynch Lele at all today? And if so, why?

This is true. Though we don't have any information surrounding how he would get out of the basement in his role, this would traditionally be a democratic vote within the mason chat, and obviously this isn't going to happen now that the other two people in the chat know that he's mafia. Keeping him around gives us a failsafe later on, and lynching him now means we don't get as much information as we would by lynching someone new. So I support this decision.

1. You are aware of the fact that the role flip is real unless the hosts are, as you said, meanie.

TBF I think the hosts are more meanie if the flip is legit -- it kinda screws up any chance that Lele had in this game due to things totally beyond his control.

2. You say Lele is mafia and can't really get out of it = he is mafia 100%

At the time we thought he was, but he's not host-confirmed as we know what that looks like thanks to Luxinity using their town inno child role.

3. You also acknowledge the fact that we do not know anything about how he would get out of the basement - so you probably know or have thought about how dangerous this might be if he actually does get out,

It could be dangerous, but there are 2 other people in the basement chat with him and there's no way they'll let Lele out. I'd put money on the way to get out being a democratic vote of some kind, as I can't see another way the role could really work.

After all that, you ask me how I can be sure he is really scum?
And then you say that lynching him is not the best option?

I have read the conversation with you and Lele, and I didn't see anything that got you convinced that he might be town. So please, explain this change of thought.

Same quote as above for Jabs. Even if he is mafia, which is likely, I don't think he's the best lynch today. Obviously I'm fine if it goes through, but it's technically more productive to get information.

As another point about the Lele lynch in general, if that role isn't Lele's it's almost definitely someone's, and so I think it's worth waiting for the activity kills at the end of the day, just in case one of the inactives has what we currently think is Lele's role. No lynch could genuinely be a good option today because of the activity kills that are gonna happen, cos then we will get a fair bit of information.

I think one way we could clear this whole situation up is to know if there actually is a basement chat. If there is than Lele is scum if not than he's (most likely) not scum.

Claiming to be in this chat will probably trigger anti-claiming mechanics.

One player we need to keep an eye on is Celever he is playing very similarily to how Yog did in the last game. We have to be careful as he is taking a leadership role.

A person talking in a normal voice in a room full of whispers isn't shouting. Likewise, just because no one else is posting, the fact that I'm active doesn't mean I'm trying to lead the town; I'd much rather be able to take a backseat.

If he starts pushing bad lynches than he needs to go.

This goes without saying and it seems strange to say it.

He also seems to fly under the radar as he seems afraid to put attention on himself and never once put his vote on one of the prime lynch candidates so far.

> Accuses of leading
> Also: Accuses of flying under the radar

Pick one.

In my opinion all he's done is create and confusion by trying to make a problem where there isn't one, and quite obviously trying to take attention off of the most important issue (Lele).

I've talked largely about Lele, which isn't taking focus off them. But we should take the focus off him a bit and make a headway on the Day 3 lynch.

Also @Celever your vote being one me does nothing and is not a very logical as we have better options such as bbninjas and Tapu Lele. Not only that but your vote is based off off of an imaginary scumslip that never happened.

So ## SMILE AT: CELEVER

This is interesting: why do you think bbninjas is a better lynch option?

 

[Luxinity]

is this where you make actions? i honestly have no idea

 

[double o squirtle]

I don't remember who asked for this but iirc someone wanted the reason why TE was scummy in the certamen QT?

Spoiler: fairly large

31
TOTAL EPICNESS
05-29-2018
06:56 AM ET (US)
I never said I wanted nobody too get it but Celever was saying it doesn’t matter if mafia gets it so I pointed out that if they get it yeah it doesn’t benefit them but we don’t get any benefits
30
DoS
05-29-2018
06:43 AM ET (US)
Ayyy gottem
29
DoS
05-29-2018
06:43 AM ET (US)
Is this how you bold...?
##Prize:Cel
28
NinjaPenguinPerson was signed in when posted
05-29-2018
06:36 AM ET (US)
You have 11.5 hours left to decide who gets the prize! Be sure to get your votes in by then!
27
MQ DreadPerson was signed in when posted
05-28-2018
10:52 PM ET (US)
TE, you rather no one receive it compare to the small chance mafia receiving the ability. Thats totally make no sense
26
DoS
05-28-2018
09:02 PM ET (US)
So would you rather just abstain from giving a potential townie a good ability?
25
TOTAL EPICNESS
05-28-2018
02:29 PM ET (US)
Yeah but the point is that if mafia gets it then we won’t get it
24
CeleverPerson was signed in when posted
05-28-2018
02:18 PM ET (US)
I'll make a case on him in the thread Day 2.
23
Tapu LelePerson was signed in when posted
05-28-2018
01:54 PM ET (US)
Could you elaborate a bit more on what you mean by bb's scum meta? I don't have the luxury of playing any games with him before.
22
CeleverPerson was signed in when posted
05-28-2018
01:48 PM ET (US)
D'awww thanks guys <3 Ironic that I wasn't here for that entire conversation when I'm being voted for my activity, but still

Tbf as this is some sort of investigative ability it doesn't even really matter if it ends up on mafia. Like it'd be a shame because town would lose that information, but it's not like mafia would gain an awful lot from it, as 95% of investigative abilities are based on figuring out who the mafia are, which the mafia knows already. And the bulletproof is fine cos that's just nightkill which mafia wouldn't kill themselves, either.

Not that I am mafia so this is by-the-by, just throwing it out there. I'll put my vote on Drac cos he's the next-most experienced player in this chat and he would also do well with this ability. Not that that means the rest of y'all shouldn't vote me, you totally should.

Also putting this here for posterity in the postgame: bb's definitely mafia: this is his scum meta all over.
21
MQ DreadPerson was signed in when posted
05-28-2018
10:35 AM ET (US)
No point argueing if there scum in here. This chat us just for the day and as long ad we dont post any crucial info about each of us. If the scum is here. The most they would know is who we plan to give the ability which based on what i read on NP post would be public information either way.

Im guessing this chat would not be used for other rounds
20
DoS
05-28-2018
09:16 AM ET (US)
That's a good point, TE. We really don't. I could be scum, you could be scum. We're basically doing this blind. But we only have this chat to choose from. You and lele don't exactly have the best rep rn, so even if you were town and could use this ability for good, I highly doubt scum would want to kill you. Drac is incredibly hard to read, and me and him aren't the most productive when it comes to these games. Celever might be scum, but he also might not be. If he is, then yeah that's not good, but if he's town, then we just made one of the few active players in this game bulletproof for a night.

Idk about you but I'm willing to take that risk.
19
TOTAL EPICNESS
05-28-2018
09:07 AM ET (US)
Celever is probably a good choice
But how do we know that scum hasn’t infiltrated this

This is the main part of the conversation.

is this where you make actions? i honestly have no idea

Discuss. For example, what do you think about the current situation? If you're talking about ability based actions, that's for your PM.

For my thoughts on the whole lele thing, I'm leaning towards lynching him, but I'm also a bit... iffy. Like lele has sorta been going back and forth in terms of reads for me early in the game he was reading for me as scummy, then his defense read as townie, and now we have this role flip. Part of me is agreeing with Cel that we should keep him around for later as a failsafe, however, I think lynching Lele would both give us a potential lynch on scum, as well as a lot of info. Like if Lele flips scum, then FoS on Cel.

 

[Tapu Lele]

You are host confirmed scum. You are trying to fool town, and some people actually fall for this.
You are host confirmed scum. You are trying to fool town, and some people actually fall for this.

???

Assuming it exists, why doesn't your "exclusive rule" prevent you from saying "that's not my role"? That's a partial-claim of sorts, as you've claimed not to be that particular role.

I doubt this very much for the simple reason that when designing a game, coming up with twenty-odd different useful power roles is annoying enough without also giving each one its own set of claiming rules. And fwiw, I don't have any special claiming rules for my role beyond what it says in the OP.

I also find it very difficult to believe that Tapu Lele is being kept by the hosts from discussing certain aspects of his role. There's a text-book example as to why hosts should never implement this sort of restriction, and I'd be near-certain that NP would know of it: a player is given the alignments of half of the town, but he is not allowed to share this information with the town. That player could simply claim being seer and each day claim 'seering' one of the players, and that would have technically gotten around their role restriction.

Just got word back from NP. I can tell you that this exclusive rule is tied to my role, but nothing more as of yet. I cannot discuss my role because it was a rule that came along with my role.

Also, bb, I don't think town would find it very nice if a person was "searing" a player every day :V

You made an defense (by questioning) very early in the game that basically echoed the type of question that I would ask. I then explain why this would be the case - I gave you this advice in Mafia 50. The odd thing is that you then claimed to have found this argument by looking at guides, and then checked multiple past games, discovering that I used this line of reasoning often. That's just a very convoluted explanation on your part. The problem? I don't see why you would give such a convoluted explanation as either alignment.

I'm ashamed to admit it, but I actually forgot about this comment which you told me in the role PM:

Just to add about tells; while all those that NP listed could be an indicator that someone is innocent or mafian, you'd need to consider WHY this tell is scummy in that context. If you say someone is scummy because of a tell, but you don't quite understand why that tell suggests they are a Mischief Maker, then you're really just taking a shot in the dark.

****

...I do not understand; the conversation was in a private Forum conversation after the game ended, not on Discord. Yeah, @Jabberwock, I have no qualms over quoting what was said in that conversation.

I'm mixing up conversations here ?_?
The only off-thread conversation with bb I cited prior was this one:

...if you had actually got that Ability, no way should you actually claim it
The optimal play would be to claim something that the mafians will want out of the game immediately, and they'll kill you
Then your ability activates, and happy days

...Which came from a private discord chat

Why do you say 'distancing' in particular? The mafians would only need to distance themselves from you if you are mafian. If you are town, they would happily push you and get an easy mislynch. If you are innocent as you claimed, I would have expected you to say something like "voting" or "pushing" - and "distancing" should not have even crossed your mind.

Distancing was the entire discussion topic of Gekki's posts, so it's still pretty fresh in my mind

 

[Jabberwock]

...I do not understand; the conversation was in a private Forum conversation after the game ended, not on Discord. Yeah, @Jabberwock, I have no qualms over quoting what was said in that conversation.

Just to add about tells; while all those that NP listed could be an indicator that someone is innocent or mafian, you'd need to consider WHY this tell is scummy in that context. If you say someone is scummy because of a tell, but you don't quite understand why that tell suggests they are a Mischief Maker, then you're really just taking a shot in the dark.

The only evidence that would suggest that Lele is actually telling the truth, imo, is that there was no you should not doubt this in any way message from the hosts. (Not that we would have expected it at that point, since there were no earlier precedents.)

No, but the fact that there was no retroactive addendum and that we now know that there shouldn't've been is telling.

Exactly

I believe that Lele should be lynched today because we still do not know for certain whether he is scum or not, and his actual flip at this point would indeed give us information on you, bb, and pretty much anyone who's already voted him. If the hosts had confirmed Lux-style that he was unquestionably scum, then I'd be more inclined to agree with you about holding off on his lynch in favor of new information.

As another point about the Lele lynch in general, if that role isn't Lele's it's almost definitely someone's, and so I think it's worth waiting for the activity kills at the end of the day, just in case one of the inactives has what we currently think is Lele's role. No lynch could genuinely be a good option today because of the activity kills that are gonna happen, cos then we will get a fair bit of information.

Lynching Lele is an infinitely better option than NL lol.

Just got word back from NP. I can tell you that this exclusive rule is tied to my role, but nothing more as of yet. I cannot discuss my role because it was a rule that came along with my role.

You didn't answer my question. Why were you allowed to say "that's not my role", if you are allowed to discuss nothing about your role? Or are you saying you're not allowed to answer that question?

I'm ashamed to admit it, but I actually forgot about this comment which you told me in the role PM:

A'ight.

 

[Tapu Lele]

You didn't answer my question. Why were you allowed to say "that's not my role", if you are allowed to discuss nothing about your role? Or are you saying you're not allowed to answer that question?

I am not allowed to discuss the role itself, or it's mechanics. I mentioned what the role is not, not what it is, or how it works. I haven't received any shaming/consequences from the mods when making this statement, so I think I was safe to talk about? TBH, I made this statement without checking with the mods on this first, because I thought that this was something ok to say. Else, I wouldn't even be able to say anything much in my defense at all. Hopefully I'm not wrong on this...

If it is ok, I guess I could say everything that the role is not, but I think I'd be pushing the limits there.

 

[Acetrainer_Samwise]

This is interesting: why do you think bbninjas is a better lynch option?

I've read over a few of the past games and he is playing very similarly to how he does when he's scum. He also seems to fly under the radar and never make to big of a scene when he does post.

Like if Lele flips scum, then FoS on Cel.

If we lynch Lele it gives us alot of information so he is probably our option. Especially by looking at all the people who have defended him like Cel.

 

[Celever]

I've read over a few of the past games and he is playing very similarly to how he does when he's scum. He also seems to fly under the radar and never make to big of a scene when he does post.

This is a good observation -- I said something similar to this in the certamen chat yesterday.

 

[Nick Tornell]

If we lynch Lele it gives us alot of information so he is probably our option. Especially by looking at all the people who have defended him like Cel.

I believe the same. If the defenders of Lele have nothing to defend, they will have interesting reactions (most probably OMGUS revenge but whatever)

 

[double o squirtle]

If we lynch Lele it gives us alot of information so he is probably our option. Especially by looking at all the people who have defended him like Cel.

You literally just quoted my post and reworded part of it.

 

[Acetrainer_Samwise]

You literally just quoted my post and reworded part of it.

I was agreeing with you. Chill.

 

[Tapu Lele]

I believe the same. If the defenders of Lele have nothing to defend, they will have interesting reactions (most probably OMGUS revenge but whatever)

Why do you explicitly mention OMGUS revenge? Just curious

 

[NinjaPenguin]

Vote Count 2​

@Tapu Lele (4): bbninjas, Jabberwock, Acetrainer_Samwise, scattered mind, TeamAqua4Life #HEYNICK, @OshaCraft360
Acetrainer_Samwise (1): Celever
Celever (1): Acetainer_Samwise

Abstaining:
mordacazir, Professor_jplap, @GekkisaiDaiNi, @Jadethepokemontrainer, GM Draclord, @Luispipe8, Tapu Lele, @PMJ, bbninjas, mirdo, @Dusk Form Lycanroc, @Luxinity, double o squirtle

Players yet to post twice today have been tagged, along with the player who would be lynched if the day ended right now (Tapu Lele).
Those who have yet to post nor are on V/LA have also been notified about this via Discord.

Additionally, here's a friendly reminder that a certamen has started and has three more slots available for everyone to join (until 12 players like the post). Also, please submit your submission for it via PM ASAP, as your submission should take two minutes or less unless you wish to communicate about it via chats.

 

[Nick Tornell]

Why do you explicitly mention OMGUS revenge? Just curious

Simply mentioning that whatever scumbuddies you may have could go on the offensive as they protected you.

 

[bbninjas]

OH! Speaking of Certamens, someone has prevented me from participating in them today - so there's an ability like that floating around. >.>

For my thoughts on the whole lele thing, I'm leaning towards lynching him, but I'm also a bit... iffy. Like lele has sorta been going back and forth in terms of reads for me early in the game he was reading for me as scummy, then his defense read as townie, and now we have this role flip. Part of me is agreeing with Cel that we should keep him around for later as a failsafe, however, I think lynching Lele would both give us a potential lynch on scum, as well as a lot of info. Like if Lele flips scum, then FoS on Cel.

Why do you think there should be FoS on Cel if or because Lele flips scum? What about defending a mafian Lele actually indicates that Celever is a scumbuddy? In this situation, when its been publicly revealed that a scumbuddy is a mafian, scumbuddies generally won't defend them and try get someone lynched - most mafians would just cut their losses and go along with it.

Distancing was the entire discussion topic of Gekki's posts, so it's still pretty fresh in my mind

Do you mean the distancing topic that was discussing back in early Day 1?? That was 5+ days ago, I have no idea why that would still be pretty fresh in your mind.

I believe the same. If the defenders of Lele have nothing to defend, they will have interesting reactions (most probably OMGUS revenge but whatever)

What did you mean by the bolded? What are the defenders of Lele having to defend against that would result in interesting reactions?

I've read over a few of the past games and he is playing very similarly to how he does when he's scum. He also seems to fly under the radar and never make to big of a scene when he does post.

Why would you think it's pro-town for someone to make a bit of a scene when they post? Did you end up looking at a few of the past games where I'm town? - cause I've had the unfortunate pleasure of being scum in the vast majority of my recent games here, so what you appear to think is my scum meta is just pretty standard to how I might play.

 

[Jabberwock]

I've read over a few of the past games and he is playing very similarly to how he does when he's scum. He also seems to fly under the radar and never make to big of a scene when he does post.

Define making a scene. Each of bb's posts generally addresses the last page or so, and garners at least a few responses to it. They're also usually very big posts compared to those of most other players. What could he possibly do to make any more of a scene?

Why do you think there should be FoS on Cel if or because Lele flips scum? What about defending a mafian Lele actually indicates that Celever is a scumbuddy? In this situation, when its been publicly revealed that a scumbuddy is a mafian, scumbuddies generally won't defend them and try get someone lynched - most mafians would just cut their losses and go along with it.

I'm of two minds about this. On the one hand, that makes sense, but on the other, Cel has been defending Lele all game; since well before his reveal. So I think it's probably too WIFOMy a point to tackle right now.

 

[Tapu Lele]

Do you mean the distancing topic that was discussing back in early Day 1?? That was 5+ days ago, I have no idea why that would still be pretty fresh in your mind.

Yeah I see you're point, but I'm still learning, and these things leave an impression on me, you know?

 

[bbninjas]

@Tapu Lele If not you, who do you think should be lynched today? I'm very specific about saying "who should be lynched" instead of "who do you think is scummy", by the way - I'm of the mind that you should absolutely and definitely be lynched at this point, even if I'm feeling increasingly uncertain about what you will flip.

I'm of two minds about this. On the one hand, that makes sense, but on the other, Cel has been defending Lele all game; since well before his reveal. So I think it's probably too WIFOMy a point to tackle right now.

Oh yeah, I totally agree that the evidence is much too WIFOMy right now. I'm actually asking this as to see double o's thought process.