Help Probability Issues with my Deck

[RisingRaichuu]

Hey there. I have a deck at the moment that runs 4 Mysterious Treasure, 3 Ultra ball, 2 Lele and 2 Brigettes-that's 11 Brigette outs in all. As a result, I reckon my deck is pretty consistent when it comes to T1 Brigettes! However, yesterday I did some testing on PTCGO and I just didn't start Brigette all day!
I'm really confused by this as I think my deck is really consistent and I was just dead drawing. So I need your help. How likely really am I to start Brigette? Is my deck consistent enough?
Thanks so much for your help,
@RisingRaichuu

 

[JGB146]

By my quick math, there's roughly a 70-75% chance of you starting with Brigette or an out to Brigette (ignoring prizing issues).

The way you calculate this is (1 - [chance of missing]) * 100. So there's a 1-(49/60) chance or 18% chance that the first card is a Brigette out. And a 1-(48/59 * 47/58) chance, 34%, that one of the first two cards are an out to Brigette.

Note that we start with 48 and 59 because of the requirement that our first card be a basic that isn't one of our Leles.

Taken alone, the math says 78% based on eleven outs. But when prizing or starting Lele could drastically reduce this, I think we need to deduct at least 5% from our results.

 

[RisingRaichuu]

Thanks so much.