Discussion The Octillery Ripple Effect (2018-19 Standard Format Discussion)

AFEX

AFEX

Serena is too cute!
Member
Hello, AFEX here,

Today I'm going to be talking about the potent ripple effect that could occur once Octillery (BKT) rotates.

To start, if you don't know already, Octillery is a draw support card introduced in BREAKthrough in 2015. The card, since then has seen use, mainly as a draw support alternative to Shaymin EX, before it rotated last year. Ever since last rotation, decks that wouldn't use Octillery, used at least a 1-1 2-2 Line of it, because of lack of draw support. Lele was of course around when Octillery became "big", and with that, some decks (including most variants of largely competitive decks) would have the following since rotation last year:

1x Remoraid
1x Octillery
2x Tapu Lele GX

Especially that of Buzzwole variants would run the lineup above, because of synergy with Brooklet Hill.
So the real question now is, what will be the effects of Octillery rotating. Below, I will discuss said things, and find more draw support cards that could become big once the Sushi Master rotates.

Effect 1- Tapu Lele GX Price Drive

I'm almost certain this will happen, none of the draw support (Octillery replacement) options I will be discussing will be nearly effective enough to keep Lele counts, and Lele prices at a median, or the same as they are now.

My Prediction- Lele will be around $55.00 (U.S. Dollars), pretty similar to how much it was when Burning Shadows came out (Or in other words, when Gardevoir GX came out), and most decks I believe could run 3-4 Tapu Lele GX.

Effect 2- A slightly slower format

Even with Tapu Lele, you can still only play one supporter a turn (unless you're in expanded with Dual Brains Magnezone), so a slightly (not by much) format should be expected.

My Prediction- TCPI will eventually release some kind of draw support card, coming in these next few sets, maybe SM7/8. Maybe SM6 if we're lucky. (I don't think we will be)

Part II- Potential Octillery Replacements~

1. Marshadow (SHL)

This card definitely isn't terrible, being Guzma bait like the rest listed here, you shuffle your hand into your deck, and draw 4, (When card is placed from your hand, onto your bench, so; no nest ball) which is an effective Judge card mechanic, except your opponent does not shuffle their hand, and do the same.

2. Bewear (GRI)

A stage 1, like Octillery, this card allows you when you play this Pokemon from your hand onto your bench when you evolve 1 of your Pokemon, to draw 3 Cards, which to be honest isn't bad, you could abuse this with Devolution Spray, but that is a lot of effort for draw support. However the reason this card isn't nearly as great as Octillery, is purely because you can use Octillery once per turn throughout the game.

3. Oranguru (SUM)

While, I personally, with extreme bias, hate this card, when you run down your hand to nothing, or your opponent Delinquent's you, this card is actually quite handy, despite the fact that you only draw up to 3 cards when you play Oranguru from hand to bench. The card is still lackluster, regardless; but I guess it could have some potential, if given the opportunity (Oranguru could work great against Mill decks, that discard cards from hand)

4. Zoroark GX (SHL)

While already around a 10.50-12.00 dollar card, the draw support it provides is definitely anything but lackluster (Oranguru *cough cough*). The ability is amazing, discard 1 card from hand to draw 2 cards, which is small yes, but if you have 4 Zoroark GX in play, that means you can draw 8 Cards! (At the cost of 4 discards) Not to mention his 1st attack and GX attack are amazing. Zoroark GX's Riotous Beating does 20x the number of your Pokemon in play (Math: 100 w/full bench, 130 w/full bench w/Choice Band against EX's GX's, 200 against Pokemon w/weakness to Dark type, 260 against Pokemon w/ Dark type Weakness w/Choice Band attached against EX's and GX's)

So that sums up the Octillery replacements, for that matter.
Thank you all so much for reading this Mini article/discussion, I'd love to write more of these in the future!

Take Care!~AFEX
 
Awesome breakdown! Don't hate so much on the monkey, bro! His attack can be a killer against energy-heavy attackers (Gardy, most metal-types) and is a fantastic OHKO against an attacking Alolan Ninetales ( now THAT is a card I HATE)

One little thing....Zoro includes itself in the pokemon count, so full bench damage is 120/150
 
AFEX said:
Hello, AFEX here,

Today I'm going to be talking about the potent ripple effect that could occur once Octillery (BKT) rotates.

To start, if you don't know already, Octillery is a draw support card introduced in BREAKthrough in 2015. The card, since then has seen use, mainly as a draw support alternative to Shaymin EX, before it rotated last year. Ever since last rotation, decks that wouldn't use Octillery, used at least a 1-1 2-2 Line of it, because of lack of draw support. Lele was of course around when Octillery became "big", and with that, some decks (including most variants of largely competitive decks) would have the following since rotation last year:

1x Remoraid
1x Octillery
2x Tapu Lele GX

Especially that of Buzzwole variants would run the lineup above, because of synergy with Brooklet Hill.
So the real question now is, what will be the effects of Octillery rotating. Below, I will discuss said things, and find more draw support cards that could become big once the Sushi Master rotates.

Effect 1- Tapu Lele GX Price Drive

I'm almost certain this will happen, none of the draw support (Octillery replacement) options I will be discussing will be nearly effective enough to keep Lele counts, and Lele prices at a median, or the same as they are now.

My Prediction- Lele will be around $55.00 (U.S. Dollars), pretty similar to how much it was when Burning Shadows came out (Or in other words, when Gardevoir GX came out), and most decks I believe could run 3-4 Tapu Lele GX.

Effect 2- A slightly slower format

Even with Tapu Lele, you can still only play one supporter a turn (unless you're in expanded with Dual Brains Magnezone), so a slightly (not by much) format should be expected.

My Prediction- TCPI will eventually release some kind of draw support card, coming in these next few sets, maybe SM7/8. Maybe SM6 if we're lucky. (I don't think we will be)

Part II- Potential Octillery Replacements~

1. Marshadow (SHL)

This card definitely isn't terrible, being Guzma bait like the rest listed here, you shuffle your hand into your deck, and draw 4, (When card is placed from your hand, onto your bench, so; no nest ball) which is an effective Judge card mechanic, except your opponent does not shuffle their hand, and do the same.

2. Bewear (GRI)

A stage 1, like Octillery, this card allows you when you play this Pokemon from your hand onto your bench when you evolve 1 of your Pokemon, to draw 3 Cards, which to be honest isn't bad, you could abuse this with Devolution Spray, but that is a lot of effort for draw support. However the reason this card isn't nearly as great as Octillery, is purely because you can use Octillery once per turn throughout the game.

3. Oranguru (SUM)

While, I personally, with extreme bias, hate this card, when you run down your hand to nothing, or your opponent Delinquent's you, this card is actually quite handy, despite the fact that you only draw up to 3 cards when you play Oranguru from hand to bench. The card is still lackluster, regardless; but I guess it could have some potential, if given the opportunity (Oranguru could work great against Mill decks, that discard cards from hand)

4. Zoroark GX (SHL)

While already around a 10.50-12.00 dollar card, the draw support it provides is definitely anything but lackluster (Oranguru *cough cough*). The ability is amazing, discard 1 card from hand to draw 2 cards, which is small yes, but if you have 4 Zoroark GX in play, that means you can draw 8 Cards! (At the cost of 4 discards) Not to mention his 1st attack and GX attack are amazing. Zoroark GX's Riotous Beating does 20x the number of your Pokemon in play (Math: 100 w/full bench, 130 w/full bench w/Choice Band against EX's GX's, 200 against Pokemon w/weakness to Dark type, 260 against Pokemon w/ Dark type Weakness w/Choice Band attached against EX's and GX's)

So that sums up the Octillery replacements, for that matter.
Thank you all so much for reading this Mini article/discussion, I'd love to write more of these in the future!

Take Care!~AFEX
Click to expand...

Agreed, the only thing is that Pokémon may replace Octillery with another card in the near future. I can't make any predictions, but if Pokémon doesn't create a card with a similar effect to Octillery, all the things that you have mentioned will most likely happen. One thing that will lessen the impact of Octillery leaving is the loss of N as well. The main reason people would play cards like Octillery or Oranguru is to give themselves some way out of a N to one. Fortunately, by the time Octillery rotates so will N, so this will somewhat level out the loss of these cards. Anyways, thanks for creating this article, I enjoyed reading it! Keep up the good work!

(also, as @Mario W mentioned, Zoroark GX counts itself in the math for damage output, so the total is 120-150 with Choice Band)
 
I think they need to stay away from good Pokemon draw for a while. Pokemon players as a whole became way too dependent letting the cards do all the work rather than just playing and building better decks as well as reprints. Since B/W, the game has always had a direct reprint of very dominate effects. Pokemon Reversal was replaced by Pokemon Catcher, which was needed to remove the luck based games we were seeing with the high damage of the Magnezone Prime decks with Pokemon Catcher being reprinted with a coin flip, which lead to Lysandre being printed and now that that rotated, we immediately got Guzma, leaving the effect in the format for over ten year.

These things have a place in the game but I honest believe they need to change formats because I'm seeing little reason for rotation to exist.
 
Mario W said:
Awesome breakdown! Don't hate so much on the monkey, bro! His attack can be a killer against energy-heavy attackers (Gardy, most metal-types) and is a fantastic OHKO against an attacking Alolan Ninetales ( now THAT is a card I HATE)

One little thing....Zoro includes itself in the pokemon count, so full bench damage is 120/150
Click to expand...

Oh, thank you!
 
I'm actually more concerned about the effect of Garbotoxin rotating out of Standard. Without that card there will be nothing to keep stuff like Vikavolt, Magnezone, Venusaur etc. in check which is a bit crazy.
 
Without the awful thing that is N to 1 I doubt Octillery will be as needed in some decks there's also zoroark which can provide a secondary draw it's also entirely possible that decks that 100 need Octillery to function such as gardevoir would stop being as good.
 
We're having a lot of draw support rotate out, aren't we?

If nothing on the current course changes, I expect to see Cynthia everywhere.

Also, Oranguru is useful for more than just hand-refilling; many decks have it as their only stopgap against Ninetales and Hoopa.
 
My deck ran 2-2 Octodad and replaced it with 2-2 Zoroark and I haven't looked back. It's been great, and I run fewer Sycamore which made room for Mallo and some other techs.
 
I think it's best to just take things one step at a time. People worried a lot about Shaymin rotating, but we got Tapu Lele GX just before it left. With Forbidden Light and possibly another set being released before rotation I would say it would be best to see what the upcoming sets have to offer before jumping after other cards.

Unless of course you're jumping on the Zoroark bandwagon, which then definately do.
 
Are there any known draw support cards in Forbidden Light?
 
I'm crossing my fingers for a Great Encounters Claydol reprint, though it probably won't ever happen.

Also, doesn't Marshadow have both you and your opponent shuffle and draw 4, not just you?
 
I personally think Oranguru is a pretty balanced card. Octillary is very, very good. Getting N’d to 1-2 cards then playing one or more of them and getting a draw to 5, wins you a lot of games. If your hand is something like choice band, energy, Pokémon and you play the choice band and energy, being able to draw those 2 extra cards is very good. We will still have Lele which could become a 4 of in decks. Who knows what else will come out before rotation as well. Still, Oranguru is not a card that should be forgotten about. It’s not as good as Octillary, but still provides a good enough balanced draw engine.
 
Zoroark has a box that's still being printed so the card has a price ceiling, it can't go much above where it is now with the box still around.
 
uncleyuri said:
I personally think Oranguru is a pretty balanced card. Octillary is very, very good. Getting N’d to 1-2 cards then playing one or more of them and getting a draw to 5, wins you a lot of games. If your hand is something like choice band, energy, Pokémon and you play the choice band and energy, being able to draw those 2 extra cards is very good. We will still have Lele which could become a 4 of in decks. Who knows what else will come out before rotation as well. Still, Oranguru is not a card that should be forgotten about. It’s not as good as Octillary, but still provides a good enough balanced draw engine.
Click to expand...

And as I mentioned before, Oranguru can actually fight, whereas Octillery's attack is pretty bad (3 for 40? Seriously) so it basically can't attack; draw is its only use. So drawing to only 3 is a good trade-off.
 
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