Standard Tsareena Lockdown

[Asmer]

Haha, perhaps answer in the morning?
3) atm I'm doing 2-2-3 so I dump Tsareena over Steenee from a start hand ultra ball.
6) have actually been running SR, how did you guess?!?
7) I mean to say that for t1 turboing Tsareena you need 3 shays: Generally only 2 will be played for the t1 lock; rarely need to dig with the third; reason 2) If one is prized, (roughly 21% chance if I were running only 2). All in all the 3rd shay is relevant a little less than a third of games.
8) True that
9) Just realised that there was no 9 my bad.
10) True that
12) 4 syca 3 N 1 Skyla 4 vs 4 tmail is a reasonably thick for a supporter lineup by general standards, solid minimum being 4 syca 2 N 4 vs 3 Tmail, and doesn't require 2 extra supporters.
13a) Lurantis-GX/friends: please elaborate which said friends Lurantis is bringing to the party.
13b)
I am interested in how often you think the combo goes off? Give me a nice solid % figure.
13c) LOL dat Golduck!!! Wouldn't call it a simple set-up, but boy I have spent ages trying to make that card actually work.
Let the good times roll!

For the Lurantis and Friends comment: Any of the good options, to be honest. Then again, I'm horribly biased in favor of Lurantis GX right now. I personally prefer Lurantis GX/Tauros GX/Garbodor because of how easy it is to set up Tauros GX and how good the card is. Plus, Lurantis is no slouch, either.

I don't have solid numbers of how often Lurantis/Vileplume goes off on T1 and I highly doubt I will unless A. I have someone do the number crunching for me out of a fairly valuable sample size (100+ seems reasonable, but I'd love more), or B. I simply did it myself, which isn't going to happen. So, I'll give you the political answer:

Doesn't matter. GarboLock. (Please don't take this seriously.)

That said, I'm going to straight out say that while I still do think the deck is strong, it was extremely overhyped considering the options that are still in the Format. Still, give it a few Majors. Results are the most solid form of evidence we can get (alongside with actual player interviews) and I have no problem admitting I'm wrong so long as the evidence favors the other argument. In other words, this is my opinion, but it is subject to change.

Golduck is a weird deck. It either works and it absolutely stomps things extremely early or it flops and everyone laughs. That said, it can do some impressive things all things considered. I may write an article on it and go in to deeper analysis eventually, but I don't think it'll be any time soon. Then again, I never know what I'll do next lol.

 

[swan]

I was talking about my list for Tsareena lock, not lurantis/vileplume...
Also, are you running wally for your garb? At least for me

Well when you do write your golduck article, remember to include a copy of the break and not to spam burst balloons or splash energies.

 

[Asmer]

I was talking about my list for Tsareena lock, not lurantis/vileplume...
Also, are you running wally for your garb? At least for me

Well when you do write your golduck article, remember to include a copy of the break and not to spam burst balloons or splash energies.

Oh, you meant how often do I think the Tsareena combo will go off? Same answer as I gave before. I don't have actual numbers and assumptions aren't very useful.
Lol.

I feel like your last line is a passive insult. I'll take it as a serious comment and say I'll do my best to remember the advice, however.

 

[swan]

I feel like your last line is a passive insult. I'll take it as a serious comment and say I'll do my best to remember the advice, however.

I'm sorry, I guess it is very obvious stuff.
When I asked how often you thought the combo worked, I meant how often do you think it works as you made a point of saying it was inconsistent. Take a guess, I have a rough figure from a small session of playtesting for consistency.

 

[Asmer]

I'm sorry, I guess it is very obvious stuff.
When I asked how often you thought the combo worked, I meant how often do you think it works as you made a point of saying it was inconsistent. Take a guess, I have a rough figure from a small session of playtesting for consistency.

Oh okay. I'll use normal search numbers just for an example.
So, let's consider that we're running something along the lines of 4 Ultra Ball, 4 Level Ball, and 4 Sycamore, 3 N, and like... 4 Trainers' Mail. Besides the normal proability of putting stuff in prizes etc, after initial draw, you'll minus 6 for Prizes and 8 for hand (14/60, which is near 25% of your deck already.). You have a 2-2-3 line, which is 7 cards and then you have 4 Forest of Giant Plants which is necessary for the combo, another 4 cards. So... factoring in 4 Ultra Ball and 4 Level Ball, you have an extra 8 cards that basically go in to one of the 7 Pokemon. We'll call them "Pokemon" too because they search, so...

7 + 8 = 15 "Pokemon"

4 Sycamore are a Straight -7 from the deck itself, which is good, so no matter what, you can calculate whatever your current deck is and drop 7 from that total and factor in the probability of obtaining a single card per draw per number of cards in deck (more maffs).

Considering about 25% of your deck is full of "Pokemon", plus 4 auto -7s from deck, plus N which is a harder calculation, but at a minimum stops you from minus when it comes to dropping the probability of drawing the evolution line... Drawing in to all 3 Pokemon is pretty dang high. Like...80% kind of high (give or take).

The big problem would be drawing in to Forest of Giant Plants. alongside with it. Unfortunately, searching for it isn't nearly as easy as the Pokemon Line because they aren't straight searchers sans Skyla (who limits your Supporter Spot), so you'd have to rely a bit more on Trainers' Mail/Sycamore/N/Skyla than you would on Ball cards. That said, if you can find a strong, consistent way of drawing in to Forest of Giant Plants, this deck would probably flow pretty smoothly.

That said, I haven't seen a really consistent way of doing that quite yet (probably because we simply don't have the tools for it right now, but maybe increasing Skylas may work out after all, I don't know, but it's worth a try), but it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

-Asmer

 

[swan]

Nice calcs, (did you factor in that using sycamore took up one of the extra 7 cards?). With my list, I have about 68-70%, which is pretty good if the absolute maximum possibility is 80.
More importantly! I have good news! Tapu Lele-GX (I mean jirachitwo) has been announced for sm2! (same set as absol) This is a huge boost as it serves as both an attacker, and search engine which may allow us to drop a supporter from the list!
170hp [P]
ability: Stellar guidance - search deck for a supporter when played onto the bench.
[c, c] X Ball - 20x no. of energy on both active pokemon.
GX- [p] Heal to benched pokemon
no weakness; no resistance; 1 retreat cost
This thing will be expensive...
Boy am I worried for jirachi-EXs price drop.

 

[Asmer]

Nice calcs, (did you factor in that using sycamore took up one of the extra 7 cards?). With my list, I have about 68-70%, which is pretty good if the absolute maximum possibility is 80.
More importantly! I have good news! Tapu Lele-GX (I mean jirachitwo) has been announced for sm2! (same set as absol) This is a huge boost as it serves as both an attacker, and search engine which may allow us to drop a supporter from the list!
170hp [P]
ability: Stellar guidance - search deck for a supporter when played onto the bench.
[c, c] X Ball - 20x no. of energy on both active pokemon.
GX- [p] Heal to benched pokemon
no weakness; no resistance; 1 retreat cost
This thing will be expensive...
Boy am I worried for jirachi-EXs price drop.

I calculated Sycamore as an 8th, yeah. And yeah, my numbers ended up around 65-70% overall for getting Tsareena + FoGP out turn 1, which is good. My only concerns are that...
A. Getting FoGP is harder than getting out Tsareena (which is funny)
B. You'll be able to get out Tsareena, but how consistent the loop itself becomes depends on how many Devolution Spray you also draw in to, which sucks. Unfortunately, it's not like Vileplume where once you drop the combo, it's done. Still, at least we know that it's at a pretty decent probability to produce at least one wombo.

And yeah, Tapu Godlike is coming next set. I really think it is a terrible example of how cards should be structured, especially in a game that gains a ton of power from searchers. Still, the card is absolutely powerful, which will definitely change the way we play Pokemon this upcoming Format, which is good at least.

What I hope is that people will only play 2 or so for now so that the price eventually simmers down a bit. Then, I can hoard a bunch of them and sit on them for the next year or so and make bank.

-Asmer

 

[swan]

Actually, you forgot to factor in red card. And technically your calcs are for getting to hand with 3 pieces of tsareena in it, not neccessarily the correct 3. But having said that, there are so many variables it is hard to find a figure with a lower s.d. than 30% just through 1 man number crunching.
When I said 68-70%, I included multiple levels of success: e.g. your opponent starting with a 0-1 card hand, your opponent starting with 2 cards, etc. With the included general criteria of being able to attack the same turn, which if not met would bump the test result down a catagory. Achieving the combo, and not ending with being able to attack or any form of draw power (1-2 topdecks considered), was treated as 0.5 of a lock, (although technically its worth a loss because the game is lost). Also achieving only red card and tsareena while having an attacker and either energy or draw power, was treated as 0.5 (1 red card + tsareena once treated as a failure).

On the subject of our new tapu (mewtwo-Ex/jirachi-Ex reprint as a Legend card), I now prenounce Mmewtwo officially dead. This means decks like Tapu koko (going to be so good...), aerodactyl, golduck, raikou, vespiquen and talonflame will no longer be held down by damage change. This card is destroying the ptcg equivalent of the stock market.

 

[Asmer]

Actually, you forgot to factor in red card. And technically your calcs are for getting to hand with 3 pieces of tsareena in it, not neccessarily the correct 3. But having said that, there are so many variables it is hard to find a figure with a lower s.d. than 30% just through 1 man number crunching.
When I said 68-70%, I included multiple levels of success: e.g. your opponent starting with a 0-1 card hand, your opponent starting with 2 cards, etc. With the included general criteria of being able to attack the same turn, which if not met would bump the test result down a catagory. Achieving the combo, and not ending with being able to attack or any form of draw power (1-2 topdecks considered), was treated as 0.5 of a lock, (although technically its worth a loss because the game is lost). Also achieving only red card and tsareena while having an attacker and either energy or draw power, was treated as 0.5 (1 red card + tsareena once treated as a failure).

On the subject of our new tapu (mewtwo-Ex/jirachi-Ex reprint as a Legend card), I now prenounce Mmewtwo officially dead. This means decks like Tapu koko (going to be so good...), aerodactyl, golduck, raikou, vespiquen and talonflame will no longer be held down by damage change. This card is destroying the ptcg equivalent of the stock market.

I did forget Red Card. Whoops.
Also, considering I did that on a whim and in my head, I probably didn't type proper calcs down. Oh well.
Granted, if you're looking for each piece, you would have to factor each card separately (sans Prizing them for now), calculate the chances of drawing in to Ultra Ball, the chances of drawing in to Level Ball sans Tsareena, the chances of drawing in to Red Card, the chances of drawing in to Forest of Giant Plants, Devolution Spray for more than what, 3 Loops? Plus Sycamores, Ns, Trainers' Mail, and anything that can potentially search the combo pieces along side with calculations of not only drawing in to non combo pieces, but drawing in to more searching cards and then calculate drawing in to Supporters once a Supporter is used and things like extra cards off of Mulligans etc. (which you mentioned all of this I'm pretty sure) and as you said in your own post:

there are so many variables it is hard to find a figure with a lower s.d. than 30% just through 1 man number crunching.

But... I digress. What I will say again is that while there are a bazillion factors that you can throw in to either direction of the wind (both in favor and against Tsareena), it's still all stopped by a Top Deck Supporter assuming you get your combo off to begin with. Now, I'm honestly not even sure where this conversation is going anymore considering it went from "This combo probably isn't going to work as well as you think..." to "Well, this is the basics of mental probability..." to whatever this is, but I suppose I'll bring it to this new point (because let's just turn this in to even more of a mess for SnG):

Why would you want to go through that many numbers for a combo that, when successful, is fairly easily stopped by most decks?

I don't know, maybe the sheer amount of 3 and 4-ofs required is visually unappealing or perhaps I mental shortcut way too often (I know this is true), but considering that you would need, what...
Red Card
Forest of Giant Plants
1-3 Tsareena Lines + X Devolution Spray or Delinquent somewhere

...to kill your Opponent's hand, you're basically playing a much more combo-centric version of Vileplume, who basically does the same thing mechanically when it comes down to it. Granted, Vileplume doesn't give you hand information nor does she discard Energy, but she slows down decks to a hard crawl if successfully placed. I'm not saying that you should be running Vileplume, either, but what I will say is that as a strategy, this isn't nearly as powerful as it needs to be. Heck, I don't think Vileplume is as powerful as it needs to be because things like Yveltal EX can STILL run over the decks playing it (with the exception of Walls if it sets up t1 with Jolteon in front).

So... I suppose that's me from a competitive perspective. Can this deck do nice things in good situations? Of course. I don't doubt that. Is it high level good? I personally don't believe so and I don't see much in favor of it over other decks and strategies that we currently have. Should you play it anyway?

Duh. Why should someone like me stop you from playing what you want? I'd be angry if you did because that's not the point of me rambling, anyway.

So, hopefully I've answered everything at this point, at least when it comes to the deck itself. I'm sure there are some slightly better additions I've missed somewhere, but eh... it happens and I'm almost certain someone will find something that even interests me as an option. Still, until then, I think that about covers it.

Keep working on it and see if it works out for you. Hopefully it does and if not, well... eh, on to the next.

-Asmer

 

[swan]

I agree its getting a bit back and forth over a very minimal group of details, so sorry in advance for this:
Well, typically, the odds of your opponent drawing out in the first turn are between 14.5-24% where 24% is: 4 syca 4 N 4 vs (1 supporter was discarded) 2 shay= 13 outs in 55 cards (prizes are unknown and mutually exclusive; so don't factor in). After that, absol can put in some work and buy a couple of turns by sacrificing 1 turn. This gives a 2 turn advantage to try and get an unstopable prize lead. The only good thing about this above vileplume ofc, is that it denys energy. As said before, 68% the combo is pulled off effectively (reminder that this result is from playtesting): 0.68x(1-0.24)= 52% win ratio, unfortunetaly only when going first. Also, the biggest problem atm is the fact that "mechanically powerful" decks can easily make up the prize advantage anyway. I don't exactly want to play this deck, I just wanted to see how far it could go!

Keep working on it and see if it works out for you. Hopefully it does and if not, well... eh, on to the next.

Lol that sounds about right. I guess we both love our little projects: maybe aerodactyl/lele is next!
I'll drop my final list here in case anybody wants it:
Pokemon(18):
2-2-3 Tsareena
3 shaymin-EX
4 Unown
1 absol
1 lugia-EX
1 Tauros-GX
1 Tapu lele-GX
Energy(7):
4 dce
3 dark
Supporters(4):
3 Lillie
1 sycamore
Trainers(27):
4 Puzzle of Time
4 Tmail
4 Ultra ball
4 Devo spray
3 Level ball
2 Nest ball
3 red card
2 Float stone
1 Special charge
Stadium(4):
4 FOGP

Until next time,
Swan out

 

[Alex Friolle]

Hey swan, I know this thread is already a couple of months old. Why not try this on expanded and use tsareena absol and sableye to achieve this lock. I tried but its too clunky, can you help me out on this please?

 

[swan]

sure let's try it! Which sableye are we talking about? (I assume junk hunt)

 

[Alphahitman4]

For this deck would Drampa GX be useful, Big Wheel attack could be useful, only need 1 energy and can probably get the combo off again the next turn with 10 cards,unless they play N on you. Also since SM2 has come out, any other cards from the set you think could be good? I am tryin to make deck in time for the Regionals in June, so limited amount of time left to play around, thanks for any insight.

 

[swan]

For this deck would Drampa GX be useful, Big Wheel attack could be useful, only need 1 energy and can probably get the combo off again the next turn with 10 cards,unless they play N on you. Also since SM2 has come out, any other cards from the set you think could be good? I am tryin to make deck in time for the Regionals in June, so limited amount of time left to play around, thanks for any insight.

I think we need to be trying for a first turn lock as opposed to trying to set it up through an attack. Also, despite my boundless enthusiasm, I would advise against trying to make this work in standard on the grounds that decidueye/plume outclasses it.