Finished Werewolf XXX: Future in Stasis - GAME OVER! Town Wins! Now w/ Postgame analysis!

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Assuming you all want me to vote either tgk or Celever, although I'm finding it a bit hard to follow the arguments surrounding them.

##VOTE: Celever, tentatively, on more or less a gut instinct. tgk's claim looks just a mite more believable to me.

Jabberwock: Seems less active than last game, which is odd. Scum Read.
I was very inactive last game in the first few days.
 
Didn't you just say that there is an equal amount of info gatherable from each lynch?

I said there is kind of equal amount. I tested it again after your post and from the posts of the votes that I quoted, you can actually see more detailed vote posts. This means that if we go with : more words from people=more info, then we should lynch tgk.



FTR, though, I find @scattered mind extremely scummy and I'm planning on scrutinising his posts (in-game) tonight to arm myself with some ammo leading into Day 2. My case on him was weak, but as the day has progressed his contribution has dropped and he's made a couple contradictions (one of which you pointed out in the above post).

I will wait for you. Have fun with my posts.
 
- More reads information in regards to the lynch options that Celever has been pushing/suggesting over his own lynch (i.e. bb, tgk, morda, scattered and Cypher)
- If my suspicions are correct that his 1-shot is a janitor/recruiting ability/1-shot vig, we get an idea of how powerful the scum are.

His reads are very vague though and lack explanation to go with. I think morda, for example, looks scummy either way since it seems very comfortable to throw him under the bus.

I don't think we can get that idea from one role. I assume that like every game, some roles are more powerful and some are less, in both town and mafia.
 
I said there is kind of equal amount. I tested it again after your post and from the posts of the votes that I quoted, you can actually see more detailed vote posts. This means that if we go with : more words from people=more info, then we should lynch tgk.
...
Just because there are more words =/= more info. Looking at the votes on TGK, many of them appear to have the same issues, while the reasons for voting for Celever are quite spread.

His reads are very vague though and lack explanation to go with. I think morda, for example, looks scummy either way since it seems very comfortable to throw him under the bus.
Uh, no...
Celever's leads were very vague, but reads can be as simple as "this person is scummy" and "look into A, B and C". You are one of those that do sound like I good option to look into, jsyk.

I don't think we can get that idea from one role. I assume that like every game, some roles are more powerful and some are less, in both town and mafia.
It is an idea nevertheless; more powerful roles do give an idea of power for the scum, as often abilities average to be a little less than "just as good".
 
...
Just because there are more words =/= more info. Looking at the votes on TGK, many of them appear to have the same issues, while the reasons for voting for Celever are quite spread.

You have to separate amount of reasons given and amount of info we can get. The way I see it, more words are much easier to analyze.

With morda, I mean that if both him and Celever are scums, I feel like Celever tried to lynch him instead of himself since he is a very easy target (not fighting back) and since he is one of the few people to get other's people attention.
 
Assuming you all want me to vote either tgk or Celever, although I'm finding it a bit hard to follow the arguments surrounding them.

##VOTE: Celever, tentatively, on more or less a gut instinct. tgk's claim looks just a mite more believable to me.


I was very inactive last game in the first few days.
Ordinarily this wouldn't be a bad reason, but one of the interesting things about this game is that our lovely host @Reinforce gave the mafia full safeclaims. This means that how good the claims look doesn't really matter, as it all comes from the host. The main thing you can get from the claims is "is it provable or not?" and "how useful for the town is it?". For me and TGK, mine is provable, albeit difficult to set up proving, which means Reinforce won't have given it to me as a safeclaim. TGK's ability isn't provable at all. Mine is also more powerful (though bb seems to disagree; that also seems to happen a lot :p) so there's more to lose if you do lynch me.
The only reason I brought this up is Melee had a lower amount of scum than "usual". The numbers vary.

@bbninjas that was an oversight on my end, but I townread you, even after your long and pointless with Celever.
I noticed the same thing and I don't like it either.

I believe the vote is currently tied with both of us at 8, so this is gonna be a really fun day at school waiting to see what happens! Deadline is actually at 2PM for me, which is right in the middle of school time, meaning that I won't be able to be on at deadline, and in about an hour I'll have left the house and also won't be able to make any posts besides quick ones on my phone.

I'll go for reads too, however I woke up late and need to get ready for school quickly, so I'm just going to do my strongest reads or anything else I think is really noteworthy. Unfortunately there won't be huge amounts of reasoning, because I am rushing this post a little bit. I know who I think is scum, though, and I've already expressed many of my opinions already, particularly on my main two.
5. @Keeper of Night ~ Main town read![/s] Scum. I've definitely expressed my opinions about KoN during the game, but I don't like his playstyle at all. He's being super aggro which isn't how he usually is, and I see this as a big playstyle shift. He's been completely fine with both mine and TGK's lynches, which to me reads like a scum keeping his options open; I actually read bbninjas as much more of a townie because he took a side (even if it was against me! :(). If TGK flips town, I intend on looking into the people who did keep their options open like KoN has. He's been tunnelling me. I made a post about him a little while ago and he defended against it here; he responded to this, but I didn't respond to him because another argument this close to deadline would have been too distractive and I believe he was trying to bait me into one. Furthermore, the content of his defense was weak, and the tone of his post was extremely defensive. Early game, he was one of the people saying "we should policy lynch RPers" which is clearly scummy as it's sort of an "anyone but me" mentality. Overall he hasn't contributed greatly to the town cause (despite generally being at least a notable name on D1 for the good reasons) and I don't recall seeing his scum meta on this site before. The playstyle shift could be his scum meta, and all of the scummy and contentless things which he's done anyway secure him as my 2nd best scumread in the game. As far as I can tell, this is an unpopular opinion for whatever reason. People may call this OMGUS, but the whole game has been targeting me at one point or another, so all of my cases are "OMGUS".
6. @double o squirtle ~ Just want to note that y'all need to be very conscious of his playstyle. I don't particularly read him as scum, but he's flying under the radar expertly well.
7. @scattered mind ~ Scum. Actually my strongest scumread in the game. And his lynch would have given us some decent info, too. The only reason why I didn't suggest it is because I know it would've have caught on with some of the more vocal players and as such I would have been wasting my time. His contradiction is definitely a weak lead, but also still somewhat notable. Since I called him out, his contribution dropped dramatically, and he became totally fixated on Squirtle Squad of all people. He's completely sold on me being scum, but AFAIK hasn't posted much reasoning and logic behind his scumread, leading me to believe it is pretty much OMGUS. He's sold on Squirtle Squad being scum too, because of one thing he said. Squirtle Squad then defended against that point perfectly, but scattered mind sort of went "eh, he's scum anyway". This shows that he's afraid of backpedalling, which I consider a sign of being scum, since they tend to be stringent with how natural and genuine they are in fear of getting called out on this normal scumtells. No, I wouldn't have called him out for backpedalling because I think that in many situations backpedalling is pretty much necessary and/or warranted, and this was one of them. I just don't see scattered mind doing that as town.

Anyway, that was only one small point on him. There's more to come tomorrow as I've said earlier as I intend on going back over his posts earlier on in the game and refreshing what exactly I found scummy about them, because I noticed lots of little things here and there, which is why I chose him as my target of "weak case pressure time!"
11. @thegrovylekid ~ Scum. Realistically I think that enough has been stated about him on almost everyone's end. FTR he's scum read #3 for me.
12. @Squirtle Squad ~ Town. Yeah, I really think that Squirtle Squad is town. He's been a presence during most of the game and has been raising good points. He's not as big a town read as simsands, but he's a strong #2. I do understand that he was agreeing with me and it feels like biased might be a thing here from being derived from that, but I also think he's town because scattered mind tried to set up a scumteam between me and him. This could be him assuming I'm getting lynched and so when I flip town his buddy will get some cred, but I think it's much more likely that scattered wanted to try to set up the links between two townies now so that he would have a good way to try and cause a Squirtle Squad lynch (so on another townie) a little bit down the line.
~~ Annoyingly, I'm out of time. I guess I went a little overboard on KoN and scattered :p.

13. @Luispipe8 ~ Scum.
14. @simsands ~ #1 Town Read.
15. @bbninjas ~ I feel like I should comment on him because we did have the argument. I think his contribution after the argument increased and was much more useful, but I still haven't forgiven him for his early game offences, so he's pretty null atm...
16. @Cypher333 ~ Not sold on his lynch. Be wary of Camo's pushing on him.
18. @Yeowie ~ Scum. Actually, forget what I said about TGK, Yeowie is #3. I find him really, REALLY suspicious and overall contentless with a little bit of panic and trying to appease everyone thrown in there.
19. @Athena ~ Town. I really love that she actually participated in Day 1 a bit and her contribution was always welcome.
20. @mordacazir ~ Scum.
21. @Chaos Jackal ~ Scum.

I'm really frustrated because CJ is my new read here, and I didn't get the chance to talk about him. Oh well, see you Day 2/bad posts on my phone!
 
OMFG I can't do anything about that strikethrough. That's just about the most infuriating thing ever... That's like the biggest eyesore ever.
I'll go for reads too, however I woke up late and need to get ready for school quickly, so I'm just going to do my strongest reads or anything else I think is really noteworthy. Unfortunately there won't be huge amounts of reasoning, because I am rushing this post a little bit. I know who I think is scum, though, and I've already expressed many of my opinions already, particularly on my main two.
5. @Keeper of Night ~ Main town read! Scum. I've definitely expressed my opinions about KoN during the game, but I don't like his playstyle at all. He's being super aggro which isn't how he usually is, and I see this as a big playstyle shift. He's been completely fine with both mine and TGK's lynches, which to me reads like a scum keeping his options open; I actually read bbninjas as much more of a townie because he took a side (even if it was against me! :(). If TGK flips town, I intend on looking into the people who did keep their options open like KoN has. He's been tunnelling me. I made a post about him a little while ago and he defended against it here; he responded to this, but I didn't respond to him because another argument this close to deadline would have been too distractive and I believe he was trying to bait me into one. Furthermore, the content of his defense was weak, and the tone of his post was extremely defensive. Early game, he was one of the people saying "we should policy lynch RPers" which is clearly scummy as it's sort of an "anyone but me" mentality. Overall he hasn't contributed greatly to the town cause (despite generally being at least a notable name on D1 for the good reasons) and I don't recall seeing his scum meta on this site before. The playstyle shift could be his scum meta, and all of the scummy and contentless things which he's done anyway secure him as my 2nd best scumread in the game. As far as I can tell, this is an unpopular opinion for whatever reason. People may call this OMGUS, but the whole game has been targeting me at one point or another, so all of my cases are "OMGUS".
6. @double o squirtle ~ Just want to note that y'all need to be very conscious of his playstyle. I don't particularly read him as scum, but he's flying under the radar expertly well.
7. @scattered mind ~ Scum. Actually my strongest scumread in the game. And his lynch would have given us some decent info, too. The only reason why I didn't suggest it is because I know it would've have caught on with some of the more vocal players and as such I would have been wasting my time. His contradiction is definitely a weak lead, but also still somewhat notable. Since I called him out, his contribution dropped dramatically, and he became totally fixated on Squirtle Squad of all people. He's completely sold on me being scum, but AFAIK hasn't posted much reasoning and logic behind his scumread, leading me to believe it is pretty much OMGUS. He's sold on Squirtle Squad being scum too, because of one thing he said. Squirtle Squad then defended against that point perfectly, but scattered mind sort of went "eh, he's scum anyway". This shows that he's afraid of backpedalling, which I consider a sign of being scum, since they tend to be stringent with how natural and genuine they are in fear of getting called out on this normal scumtells. No, I wouldn't have called him out for backpedalling because I think that in many situations backpedalling is pretty much necessary and/or warranted, and this was one of them. I just don't see scattered mind doing that as town.

Anyway, that was only one small point on him. There's more to come tomorrow as I've said earlier as I intend on going back over his posts earlier on in the game and refreshing what exactly I found scummy about them, because I noticed lots of little things here and there, which is why I chose him as my target of "weak case pressure time!"
11. @thegrovylekid ~ Scum. Realistically I think that enough has been stated about him on almost everyone's end. FTR he's scum read #3 for me.
12. @Squirtle Squad ~ Town. Yeah, I really think that Squirtle Squad is town. He's been a presence during most of the game and has been raising good points. He's not as big a town read as simsands, but he's a strong #2. I do understand that he was agreeing with me and it feels like biased might be a thing here from being derived from that, but I also think he's town because scattered mind tried to set up a scumteam between me and him. This could be him assuming I'm getting lynched and so when I flip town his buddy will get some cred, but I think it's much more likely that scattered wanted to try to set up the links between two townies now so that he would have a good way to try and cause a Squirtle Squad lynch (so on another townie) a little bit down the line.
~~ Annoyingly, I'm out of time. I guess I went a little overboard on KoN and scattered :p.
13. @Luispipe8 ~ Scum.
14. @simsands ~ #1 Town Read.
15. @bbninjas ~ I feel like I should comment on him because we did have the argument. I think his contribution after the argument increased and was much more useful, but I still haven't forgiven him for his early game offences, so he's pretty null atm...
16. @Cypher333 ~ Not sold on his lynch. Be wary of Camo's pushing on him.
18. @Yeowie ~ Scum. Actually, forget what I said about TGK, Yeowie is #3. I find him really, REALLY suspicious and overall contentless with a little bit of panic and trying to appease everyone thrown in there.
19. @Athena ~ Town. I really love that she actually participated in Day 1 a bit and her contribution was always welcome.
20. @mordacazir ~ Scum.
21. @Chaos Jackal ~ Scum.

I'm really frustrated because CJ is my new read here, and I didn't get the chance to talk about him. Oh well, see you Day 2/bad posts on my phone!

You'll have to make do with no colour, since I've gotta go now.
 
Hey, do you think that the strikethrough is showing just how useful my reads are? :p

If it makes you feel any better, my biggest scum reads that aren't part of today's discussion (Yeowie and CJ) are listed as scum reads by you too, so that has to mean something, right? :p
 
You have to separate amount of reasons given and amount of info we can get. The way I see it, more words are much easier to analyze.
This is false. Note the following sentences. One is longer than the other, but they say the exact same thing.

"Jimmy justified his sentence" vs "Jimmy made a justification of his sentence."

I could also write "I'm going to school now.", but that obviously gives minimally little/no information.

With morda, I mean that if both him and Celever are scums, I feel like Celever tried to lynch him instead of himself since he is a very easy target (not fighting back) and since he is one of the few people to get other's people attention.
Who are you talking to? Because this is unrelated to the post of mine you quoted.

@Celever, thankyou for your reads, as they will be useful if I am wrong in reading you as scum over TGK. Funnily enough, I also have been scum reading Yeowie (lurky/echoing, gut due to post tone) but I've been town reading Jackal (more logical and contributes imo).
 
Ok I've got time to stop and post! Sorry for lurking :p (if anyone's noticed haha)

I really liked Celever's reads post :) much helpful.

This whole day period reminds me of the Camo Vs keeper day period back in Avatar, and I feel like if Celever gets lynched and flips town that somehow TGK will slip under the radar somehow and survive. Though the same could potentially happen if TGK were lynched and flipped town.


At this point however I'm pretty convinced TGK is scum. He's finally resurfaced but his posts don't exactly read like a person just about to get lynched. A. Townie would be a little more actively defending himself and trying to get himself off the chopping block.

TGK is the better lynch option.
And I've just realised wouldn't chansey just be a straight up healer? Jailer seems a little unlike chansey. But I don't wanT to read too much into roles as scum were given claims.

TGK should be lynched .
 
This whole day period reminds me of the Camo Vs keeper day period back in Avatar, and I feel like if Celever gets lynched and flips town that somehow TGK will slip under the radar somehow and survive. Though the same could potentially happen if TGK were lynched and flipped town.
Not gonna make the same mistake twice!

At this point however I'm pretty convinced TGK is scum. He's finally resurfaced but his posts don't exactly read like a person just about to get lynched. A. Townie would be a little more actively defending himself and trying to get himself off the chopping block.
Wouldn't a scum be more likely to get himself off the chopping block, as the scum's aim is to survive, unlike a townie, who's aim is to lynch scum so shouldn't be half as concerned if they are getting lynched?

And I've just realised wouldn't chansey just be a straight up healer? Jailer seems a little unlike chansey. But I don't wanT to read too much into roles as scum were given claims.
Just went back and checked the role cause I recalled something about the Day Care, which on review explains p'well why Chansey is a jailer and not a straightup healer.
 
This is false. Note the following sentences. One is longer than the other, but they say the exact same thing.

"Jimmy justified his sentence" vs "Jimmy made a justification of his sentence."

I could also write "I'm going to school now.", but that obviously gives minimally little/no information.


Who are you talking to? Because this is unrelated to the post of mine you quoted.

OK so there is more content to go with. I definitely didn't see who has more words without looking what they had written.

Of course I was talking to you. Maybe I didn't quote right.
 
OK so there is more content to go with. I definitely didn't see who has more words without looking what they had written.
I just checked your post here, and there is more "content" in the votes of those voting for Celever over those voting for tgk.


Of course I was talking to you. Maybe I didn't quote right.
Oh, I think I know what you're referring to now. :p
 
Not gonna make the same mistake twice!


Wouldn't a scum be more likely to get himself off the chopping block, as the scum's aim is to survive, unlike a townie, who's aim is to lynch scum so shouldn't be half as concerned if they are getting lynched?


Just went back and checked the role cause I recalled something about the Day Care, which on review explains p'well why Chansey is a jailer and not a straightup healer.
Town should never give up as town.
That's poor form. Town should really be fighting it to the very end. Giving up is dumb and frowned upon. TGKs drop in activity is a scumtell and not appreciated.
 
Wouldn't a scum be more likely to get himself off the chopping block, as the scum's aim is to survive, unlike a townie, who's aim is to lynch scum so shouldn't be half as concerned if they are getting lynched?

I feel like this is setting up a false dichotomy. Townies should totally be concerned about being lynched. After all, to a typical townie*, they are the only person that they know is 100% innocent, so every single other person in the game is potentially a better lynch target. What should be suspicious is not if a person defends him-/herself from a lynch, but how they do it. This is part of why TGK is my highest scum-read of today's options.

(* - Masons are really the only exception to this since they know their partner is inno. Seers to a lesser extent as well.)
 
I feel Celever's more recent posts have felt slightly scummy/illogical. Though not enough to make me think he's scum, I'm keeping him on my radar. I'm still in favour of a TGK lynch, but they're both really close to being lynched, so I'll keep my vote for the moment.
 
I just checked your post here, and there is more "content" in the votes of those voting for Celever over those voting for tgk.



Oh, I think I know what you're referring to now. :p

Maybe CJ's post, yours and Yeowie's? Still, more content from tgk's voters: KoN SS Vom Luis Camo. (My post doesn't go over all the points that were made by Camo and Luis since I only quoted the post with the vote, but Camo made also the point about the unvote and Luis also mentioned tgk's role that was suspicious iirc.
 
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