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My calc was correct for 4 froakie and 2 talonflame. I even show the general way of how the probability progresses which was the whole point of my post. Initial impressions in the thread did not account for difference with Mulligans. Your spreadsheet might be a major resource for talonflame...

Mine was 39.09 ignoring the odds of going past 3 Mulligan. It is correct and I used a card probability calculator for the combinations and permutations. My method is using discrete math to avoid a probability tree as it is not necessary. @21 times,. You could run 1 basic and 4 talonflame...

One thing to consider is running more talonflame run into diminishing returns. There are those times where you start with one and then run into or draw into them through the game (or have 2 in opening hand for instance). My first guess for a good number was 2 but I guess it was fairly popular...

I believe my calculations are correct.

One example would be say Greninja that doesn't run octillery there are only 4 basic pokemon on the deck (4 froakie). A common problem is getting benched out (donked), or mulligan too many times. With talonflame you have a better opportunity to get greninja setup even in the face of an item...

Any fire deck built competitively. Mega ray should do well against it, but obviously greninja and primal groudon are good matchups for sceptile. Sceptile is a deck that depends an awful lot on what people are playing because while you can have a very controlling board state with the healing...

There's so much more to this and you have to consider the context of each decision. In the beginning I had trouble making the mistake of lysandre'ing the Shaymin-EX and then knocking it out for the 2 quick prizes, but then leaving a good attacker to get clobbered when I might have been able to...

That's a tough one, but for the 2 weeks that both aromatisse and xerneas break are legal I would say -1 fighting fury belt, -1 m gardevoir. The last -1 probably depends on your meta but I guess hex maniac becomes less important for me and I can't imagine dropping anything else. 3 sycamore is...

##Pokémon - 17 * 2 Shaymin-EX ROS 106 * 1 Giratina-EX AOR 57 * 1 Hydreigon-EX ROS 62 * 1 Gardevoir-EX PRC 105 * 2 Gardevoir-EX GEN 130 * 3 M Gardevoir-EX GEN 131 * 1 Spritzee BKP 84 * 1 Aromatisse XY 93 * 4 Xerneas XY 96 * 1 Hoopa-EX AOR 36 ##Trainer Cards - 28 * 2 Battle Compressor Team...

I still have 4 leagues before rotation... Maybe not everybody is limiting themselves to post rotation. I ran 1-1 aromatisse and it worked very well with the old m gardevoir and giratina / hydreigon. I would possibly run 1 of the new m gardevoir when its legal, but my deck centered around the...

What I noticed in my blacksmith deck was that using blacksmith stopped you from using a draw supporter. In order to make my deck more effective I used scorched earth and increased the energy count slightly to allow for draw when you plan on using blacksmith. For my deck to win consistently I...

Nobody really even knows what it will look like, it would be a little soon to call things so drastic. The format will likely change in ways that haven't been anticipated. On a side note you can always lysandre-up that pokemon and take a shot at it. They've hinted that attacks that get rid...

I wanted to try to take advantage of the fact that Serperior gets by with only 1 energy and can do OK with any type of energy. I thought maybe the new delphox would give the deck an advantage against decks with a fire weakness (and it attacks for 3 normal type energy). Its sort of like...

I tried aegislash-EX but the problem was that it is easily played around (hex maniac, lysandre, wobbuffet, etc) and that you end up putting a lot of resources into it in order to do minimal damage. It can be good against night march or vespiquen if the players are less experienced, but most...

T1 item lock before you have a turn is too much. Its worse than latios donk decks honestly, although the M-alakazam deck that can wipe out your 2 or 3 starting pokemon before you take a turn is pretty bad as well. And lets face it, starting with 2-3 pokemon today in a competitive deck involves...

@Roy - The deck wants to start yveltal XY in the active spot and use battle compressor/ultra ball to get maxxie's hidden ball trick, gallade, and a dark energy or two into the discard pile. Use oblivion wing to attach the energy to your preferred attacker you want to setup (Yveltal-EX). Attach...

My other TCG experience is Magic and I have to say that while I like Pokemon a lot more, there is certainly more luck in Pokemon. There is way too much put on winning the coin flip to go first in Pokemon, and there is no way that you should be item locked before having a turn in a game where...

I ran an adjusted list this past weekend and did well, but mega manectric still took me out. I really couldn't feel too bad about it because I lost the coin flip and then had bad luck with prizes. My best chance would have been to try for a 1st or 2nd turn maxxie's -> gallade but I didn't...

Joltik or pumpkaboo would be your best bet... Otherwise you might go with Lucario-EX, if you can manage that and some strong energy you can get by.

I've been playing this list: Pokémon - 17 2 Shaymin-EX ROS 106 1 Yveltal BKT 94 1 Yveltal GEN 116 2 Yveltal XY 78 2 Yveltal-EX PR-XY XY08 2 Zoroark BREAK BKT 92 3 Zorua BKT 89 2 Zoroark BKT 91 1 Gallade BKT 84 1 Seismitoad-EX FFI 20 Trainer Cards - 31 1 Hex Maniac AOR 75 1 Lysandre FLF 90 3...