Discussion For Collectors, a question we have all wondered

[Nate The Bug Catcher]

A topic that has been discussed millions of times throughout the years. I found myself back collecting cards and even Playing The TCG casually with some friends. I'm 29 years old about to be 30. 5 years ago I stumbled across Pokémon Again. From 1997 (When I was 7 years old) to around 2002 or 2003 whenever skyridge ended. That's the timeline that I was Pokecard crazy. Most of us were. I mean I was there in the toy stores buying the first base set booster packs ever, We all did. I had them all... Story of my life and so many others. When I was 12 I started getting into other things. There was A huge stigma in middle school that If you liked Pokémon you were a loser. It was known and made a lot of us quit. As did I. Gave my whole 10 Binder Collection to my neighbor who moved away. And started listening to Punk rock and skateboarding. So 15 or so years pass. I'm like 25 in Walmart. I haven't touched or seen a Pokémon card since way back in 2002. And I see a booster pack in the store. I'm curious why the hell not. Buy it. I have no idea how many pokemon there are im thinking if there were 150 to 250 back when I quit there has to be like 3000 now. I wasn't excited as I really only wanted to open up vintage packs. But I grabbed whatever pack that had a Pokémon on it I recognized.

Well It just so happened that I bought an XY Evolutions booster pack. I didn't know any of the new sets. Nothing. When I opened it a whole ton of feelings and memories came back and here I am now 5 years later with a massive XY Sun moon, sword shield and vintage collection.

The question : What Booster Boxes, packs or Sets are worth holding onto. Either Sealed or Single. Sealed is what im thinking. I have looked at how prices work between a 10 Year window frame. And Even XY booster boxes (early ones) are rising in price some double already. About right considering they are about 5 years old already. And a lot of them have not rose in price yet. Like Roaring Skies, Breakpint etc.

I have studied A lot of the expansions and see how expensive even ones from 13 years ago are. Booster boxes are insane. Booster packs ranging from 50 to 100 dollars and these are not even "Vintage" yet.
I understand That any set basically before Skyridge, Expedition or Aqaupolis all the way back to base set is a total different ballpark. But those aside. I believe Prices for every set will rise if its sealed.

Sealed Pokémon Products are the most searched item. Ppl want sealed stuff. Question is how many collectors are there VS Competetive Players in the market. Competetive players don't care about that stuff they just want new cards. Single cards.

But the Pokémon World is so massive and so Popular its a cash cow. Sets will always rise. Some will be less than others. XY Phantom Forces is already doubled and half will sets less popular "Steam Siege" stay the same. But its the ones in between im focusing on.
Im still watching whats happening in the market. But I am starting to get ready to buy XY booster boxes that still are in the 00 range. Watch very soon they will rise in a blink.

What do you think?

 

[Scoop]

I'm not really the biggest expert on the sealed market, but I'd pay attention to how much of a set got printed-this heavily determines how much the resale of anything in it will be, sealed or otherwise. The ORAS and BREAK sets in the XY series were printed a LOT more than the first four sets in the series, and some were even REprinted (PC/RS/AO I believe got second print runs when their cards were in demand for the competitive game). This ESPECIALLY applies to sets like Steam Siege and Evolutions, which were printed so much that four years later they're still trying to get rid of their stock of the set. There's a few sun and moon sets like this now, Burning Shadows iirc is one, but there's less of this because they started controlling print runs a little bit more.

When you have so much of a set that after four years they're still selling for so low, I feel like that's a sign that it's not going to change anytime soon.

I don't really recommend in going crazy on anything past gen 5, barring something like Flashfire, if you're looking for a crazy increase in value or something. The money is NOT in the recent years of the TCG, as they've printed so much product that it'll last years on end and still be easily accessible. If you WANT to go for a collection for collecting's sake, sure keep one of each set that's come out in the last while, but I wouldn't expect insane increases on stuff like Steam Siege. Evolutions, sure maybe in many years from now but that set got 3+ large print runs, it's not going anywhere.

It's all about scarcity, which is why stuff like Skyridge or the EX era (Gen 3) is so much more expensive-Skyridge had one print run. E-series was when Pokemon was the least popular it had ever been, so less got printed. That's what you have to look for, so if you're going for modern sealed stuff? Go for whatever got printed the least, and go for rare Charizards if we're talking singles, but like I said, you should not be expecting much.

That's my input on it, sorry if I'm not making sense, it's 2AM where I am and I'm rather tired.

 

[Merovingian]

I'm not an expert on foreseeing what could be good value in the future. But I will say that Burning Shadows and Ultra Prism are good sets for it.

Burning Shadows is because of the "potential" of pulling a RR Charizard-GX. Even crazier is that the first print runs had better quality are are more likely to PSA10 than the rest of the print runs, which typically get PSA9. IT's something along those lines.
That and the 3 SR Energy in the set (Fire, Darkness, and Fairy) are HUGE cash cows.

Ultra Prism was (inadvertantly) turned into a short print run set. Sealed boxes go for A LOT, like, get one now while it's still "cheap".

 

[Serperior]

While I don't invest in sealed product, I like @Merovingian's thought process. Print runs and chase cards are the most significant factors to any sealed box's potential, and Burning Shadows and Ultra Prism have both. I would keep an eye on Evolutions also - despite being overprinted, surely a nostalgic set with several Charizard to chase should increase in value.

I have no idea why XY Phantom Forces has doubled in value - I see absolutely zero set appeal aside from the Silver Dialga-EX. (The Secret Rares themselves are worth pennies - I just purchased a few M Manectric-EX SR for ~$4 apiece.) I anticipate on this plateauing over time or even dropping in price.

 

[Scoop]

I have no idea why XY Phantom Forces has doubled in value - I see absolutely zero set appeal aside from the Silver Dialga-EX. (The Secret Rares themselves are worth pennies - I just purchased a few M Manectric-EX SR for ~$4 apiece.) I anticipate on this plateauing over time or even dropping in price.

This is something I'm actually curious about as well (it seems to be a trend with the first four XY sets-Flashfire understandably given it's full of Charizard). I think it may just be that they're older and were printed a decent amount less than later sets in the era, causing a weird spike in price for the sealed boxes themselves for people looking for those? My best guess-While I doubt it's going to drop in price, I think it already has plateaued and will continue to for some time as it has been for a good while now.

 

[Serperior]

Maybe that's the case - I don't know. If sealed collectors want them for their sealed collection, I guess I understand that the box itself is just going to be harder to find down the line when compared to Roaring Skies or Fates Collide. There isn't anything particularly nostalgic from Phantom Forces from a card perspective that makes it any more valuable than other sets, (specifically Flashfire like you mentioned), I guess it's simply a trend of supply and demand.