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Good Today, Good Tomorrow — Dragapult ex Before and After Rotation
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Along with this, I would also swap out a Lance for a Hisuian Heavy Ball. You still have the one that can be searchable with Lumineon, you don’t need to worry about Budew or any of the other 1-offs being prized, and you can TM Evo if you’re fighting Lugia or something else which doesn’t really rely on items too heavily
ok but won't it get absolutely bodied by gardevoir ex after rotation? it may be an even matchup now, but gardevoir doesn't lose much post rotation either (its biggest loss probably being refinement kirlia but i'm sure there's ways around that). post rotation it will gain some powerful cards; im mainly thinking about lillie's clefairy ex which would make dragapult an easy ohko.
Hey all, sorry about the late response to some of these, been somewhat busy on my end unfortunately! Let me try and answer your questions now.
First, let me go over the choice for the second copy of Budew in a bit more detail. The two main advantages of having the second Budew are that you have a lower chance of prizing it, and you have a greater chance of starting with it. The prizing bit is fairly straightforward; by playing a second copy of Budew, you decrease your chances of prizing it by about 9 percent or so, which is pretty substantial. Yes, you can still win without it, but given how much that bonus turn tends to flip games, I’m personally in favor of making sure you don’t have to deal with that ~1 in 10 chance. You also increase your chances of starting with Budew, which can be useful in that you no longer need to find the resources to switch into it, not to mention find it. The chances go from ~15.7% with 1 to ~28.5% with 2. This also slightly decreases your chances of having to start with Lumineon V, admittedly not by a ton, but it does help. By starting with it, that can save you an Energy, it can mean you get to save Rescue Board for a more optimal time, not to mention that you might be able to grab different things entirely with your search cards, which can put you in a more advantageous position. If you can grab Forest Seal Stone with Arven instead of Rescue Board, for instance, that’s going to make it much easier to have an explosive start or to find what you need to properly set up your board.
This aspect is particularly notable for the debate between Budew #2 and Hisuian Heavy Ball; as far as finding Budew itself, the two cards are mostly the same, but Hisuian Heavy Ball doesn’t give you that start advantage. There are also a few other downsides to going Hisuian Heavy Ball over Budew. If you play Hisuian Heavy Ball instead of the Budew, it also isn’t quite a one-to-one in the case that Budew is prized, since you can’t Buddy-Buddy Poffin for the Heavy Ball and another Basic Pokemon, like you can if you have the second Budew. Any Pokemon-searching Item that you might have naturally drawn into also isn’t an out, so you’re basically looking at eight fewer cards in your deck that can get you that Budew. So, between the lower starting chance and the additional inconsistency, I don’t think it’s worth having the Heavy Ball, even if it does help you find your other prized Pokemon in those situations.
As for Technical Machine: Evolution, I’ve flipped back and forth on whether or not to include it. Technical Machine: Evolution does fit in pretty well, especially seeing as the deck already plays four Arven and a bunch of useful Stage 1s. It’s going to naturally be better against the decks where you aren’t looking to use Budew early, though you won’t want to use it as often against the matchups where you do. Strategically, I’m not a huge fan of having a card in specifically to be a backup plan for if you prize something - I always figure, if you’re going to use up that card spot, just use it on the card itself so that you don’t prize it - so the debate is more is the TM:Evo going to be useful often enough to justify replacing the Budew, and limiting yourself in those 10% of games where it is prized, as well as reducing your odds of starting with it. And, it’s close. It really depends on the meta, specifically what percentage of decks are you going to face that you don’t want to use Budew at all. It’s a bit awkward too because often in those matchups, you don’t want to be going second either, you’d rather try to rush to the turn two Dragapult, so I’ve tended to find the TM:Evo to be a bit underwhelming in practice? It requiring an Energy attachment can also be obnoxious, it makes it a bit trickier to use in situations where you’re using your Active as a sacrifice, as you can typically count on whatever that Basic is being KO’d on your opponent’s second turn, since you aren’t slowing them down with Itchy Pollen. So, even if the meta share of decks where you wouldn’t want Budew looks high enough to warrant the switch, TM:Evo isn’t necessarily a viable play in all of those games either. With that said, in the games where it does work out, it’s quite nice, and I always like having more strategic options when playing.
So far the tournament lists have been pretty split as well it seems; I was kind of hoping the results in Merida would have clarified things a bit, but the successful Dragapult ex lists there have been pretty 50/50 on whether to include the second Budew or not. On the flipside, those results have certainly shown that either way can work. One thing to keep an eye on will be if the meta shifts in one direction or another; if people stop respecting Budew as much, for instance, than the second Budew will be stronger, whereas if we start seeing more decks that don’t care about Itchy Pollen as much, then the Technical Machine will be the play. As for right now, it really could go either way; while I personally prefer the two Budew, I could easily see switching back at some point in the future.
As for post-rotation Gardevoir ex, losing Refinement ends up being a pretty big deal; not only does it hurt the deck’s draw power, but it also means that it has fewer ways to discard Psychic Energy. Lillie’s Clefairy ex helps in the Dragon matchups, but the rest of its matchup spread goes downhill pretty much across the board. It’s not unplayable by any means, but it is a good bit worse, which has naturally led to it losing meta share, making it not as much of a deck to be worried about. When I was writing the article, I believe it was sitting at about 4% in the Japanese post-rotation events, that could certainly change if it does well at Champions League Fukuoka this weekend, but at the moment, it’s simply not all that popular. It’s also worth noting that without Refinement, Gardevoir becomes much more susceptible to being slowed down by Budew; it’s still a liability against Munkidori, but it can be a lot more worth it if it means that you can stop the opponent from evolving up properly before you get out your Dragapult ex. Lillie’s Clefairy ex is also within Phantom Dive’s OHKO range, so if you have a second one ready to go, you can typically trade knockouts fairly easily, or even get a third Prize if the opponent had to KO you with something that wasn’t Gardevoir ex itself. So, all in all, I’m not too worried about Gardevoir ex in the post-rotation format. The more threatening Lillie’s Clefairy ex deck right now actually seems to be the Ogerpon ex one, again, we’ll see if that makes any big waves this weekend. The Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex in the post-rotation list helps with that deck as well though, so even if that sees a huge spike in play, it’s already somewhat prepared.
Hope this helps!
First, let me go over the choice for the second copy of Budew in a bit more detail. The two main advantages of having the second Budew are that you have a lower chance of prizing it, and you have a greater chance of starting with it. The prizing bit is fairly straightforward; by playing a second copy of Budew, you decrease your chances of prizing it by about 9 percent or so, which is pretty substantial. Yes, you can still win without it, but given how much that bonus turn tends to flip games, I’m personally in favor of making sure you don’t have to deal with that ~1 in 10 chance. You also increase your chances of starting with Budew, which can be useful in that you no longer need to find the resources to switch into it, not to mention find it. The chances go from ~15.7% with 1 to ~28.5% with 2. This also slightly decreases your chances of having to start with Lumineon V, admittedly not by a ton, but it does help. By starting with it, that can save you an Energy, it can mean you get to save Rescue Board for a more optimal time, not to mention that you might be able to grab different things entirely with your search cards, which can put you in a more advantageous position. If you can grab Forest Seal Stone with Arven instead of Rescue Board, for instance, that’s going to make it much easier to have an explosive start or to find what you need to properly set up your board.
This aspect is particularly notable for the debate between Budew #2 and Hisuian Heavy Ball; as far as finding Budew itself, the two cards are mostly the same, but Hisuian Heavy Ball doesn’t give you that start advantage. There are also a few other downsides to going Hisuian Heavy Ball over Budew. If you play Hisuian Heavy Ball instead of the Budew, it also isn’t quite a one-to-one in the case that Budew is prized, since you can’t Buddy-Buddy Poffin for the Heavy Ball and another Basic Pokemon, like you can if you have the second Budew. Any Pokemon-searching Item that you might have naturally drawn into also isn’t an out, so you’re basically looking at eight fewer cards in your deck that can get you that Budew. So, between the lower starting chance and the additional inconsistency, I don’t think it’s worth having the Heavy Ball, even if it does help you find your other prized Pokemon in those situations.
As for Technical Machine: Evolution, I’ve flipped back and forth on whether or not to include it. Technical Machine: Evolution does fit in pretty well, especially seeing as the deck already plays four Arven and a bunch of useful Stage 1s. It’s going to naturally be better against the decks where you aren’t looking to use Budew early, though you won’t want to use it as often against the matchups where you do. Strategically, I’m not a huge fan of having a card in specifically to be a backup plan for if you prize something - I always figure, if you’re going to use up that card spot, just use it on the card itself so that you don’t prize it - so the debate is more is the TM:Evo going to be useful often enough to justify replacing the Budew, and limiting yourself in those 10% of games where it is prized, as well as reducing your odds of starting with it. And, it’s close. It really depends on the meta, specifically what percentage of decks are you going to face that you don’t want to use Budew at all. It’s a bit awkward too because often in those matchups, you don’t want to be going second either, you’d rather try to rush to the turn two Dragapult, so I’ve tended to find the TM:Evo to be a bit underwhelming in practice? It requiring an Energy attachment can also be obnoxious, it makes it a bit trickier to use in situations where you’re using your Active as a sacrifice, as you can typically count on whatever that Basic is being KO’d on your opponent’s second turn, since you aren’t slowing them down with Itchy Pollen. So, even if the meta share of decks where you wouldn’t want Budew looks high enough to warrant the switch, TM:Evo isn’t necessarily a viable play in all of those games either. With that said, in the games where it does work out, it’s quite nice, and I always like having more strategic options when playing.
So far the tournament lists have been pretty split as well it seems; I was kind of hoping the results in Merida would have clarified things a bit, but the successful Dragapult ex lists there have been pretty 50/50 on whether to include the second Budew or not. On the flipside, those results have certainly shown that either way can work. One thing to keep an eye on will be if the meta shifts in one direction or another; if people stop respecting Budew as much, for instance, than the second Budew will be stronger, whereas if we start seeing more decks that don’t care about Itchy Pollen as much, then the Technical Machine will be the play. As for right now, it really could go either way; while I personally prefer the two Budew, I could easily see switching back at some point in the future.
As for post-rotation Gardevoir ex, losing Refinement ends up being a pretty big deal; not only does it hurt the deck’s draw power, but it also means that it has fewer ways to discard Psychic Energy. Lillie’s Clefairy ex helps in the Dragon matchups, but the rest of its matchup spread goes downhill pretty much across the board. It’s not unplayable by any means, but it is a good bit worse, which has naturally led to it losing meta share, making it not as much of a deck to be worried about. When I was writing the article, I believe it was sitting at about 4% in the Japanese post-rotation events, that could certainly change if it does well at Champions League Fukuoka this weekend, but at the moment, it’s simply not all that popular. It’s also worth noting that without Refinement, Gardevoir becomes much more susceptible to being slowed down by Budew; it’s still a liability against Munkidori, but it can be a lot more worth it if it means that you can stop the opponent from evolving up properly before you get out your Dragapult ex. Lillie’s Clefairy ex is also within Phantom Dive’s OHKO range, so if you have a second one ready to go, you can typically trade knockouts fairly easily, or even get a third Prize if the opponent had to KO you with something that wasn’t Gardevoir ex itself. So, all in all, I’m not too worried about Gardevoir ex in the post-rotation format. The more threatening Lillie’s Clefairy ex deck right now actually seems to be the Ogerpon ex one, again, we’ll see if that makes any big waves this weekend. The Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex in the post-rotation list helps with that deck as well though, so even if that sees a huge spike in play, it’s already somewhat prepared.
Hope this helps!