It's easier to pull a full set of Shiny Vault cards than it is to pull a full set of Full Arts from recent main-set boosters, though. Assuming Shiny Vault shows up 1 in every 3 packs, that's 282 packs on average to get them all. (Obviously assuming no duplicates, but this is just a comparison.) To get all the non-Secret Full Arts from Team Up (which are about 1/18 packs), you'd need on average 414 packs. This comparison is actually probably more in favour of Shiny Vault than that would appear, too, since it includes all 94 cards in that count while I excluded the secrets from Team Up. Odds are Brooklet Hill and on are secret, and I shouldn't have counted them in that comparison.
You're ignoring the (likelyhood of) individual rarity though, so the odds are a lot worse than a standard set.
in the video of the 8 SV cards he got. 6 were standard, 2 were full arts. having 75% of all SV cards pulled being the standard cards is unlikely to be a coincidence, not a stretch to think that the non full art SV cards will be much more common than the gx's/fa/gold.
let's pretend those are the odds.
1/3 boosters gets you a SV card, then 1/4 of those SV cards will be either a gx or trainer fa
so you'd get 1(sv) GX for every 12 HF booster packs opened.
there's 48 (sv) gx's/full arts.assuming no doubles, you'd have to open up 504 HF booster packs to get all the SV gx's.
Then there's the (again somewhat likely) chance that like in normal sets certain gx's are rarer than others. good chance you'll pull multiple electrode & altaria gx's before you get a charizard gx. Meaning surely we're going to have to open far more than 500 boosters to complete the set.
then there's secret rares. even if they are half the likelihood they are in normal sets at around 1/60 packs. you'd have to open 180 HF packs to get one.
Hopefully the more that are opened the less scary the odds will prove to be, but regardless
considering there's no booster boxes, this will be an insanely expensive set to complete.
was thinking of completing this set (haven't done a set since evolutions), but might be better to buy 90% of it.
