^Well, pretty much any Sceptile variant will do a nice chunk to Toad itself. What matters is the kind of deck you're facing, with or without Toad. I've been playing different variants of Sceptile-EX decks as my primaries on TCGO since AOR came out, so I'll run through the decks I commonly see and talk about those matchups. Please note, though, that the meta on TCGO is somewhat different from what we find IRL (I'm too poor to afford to buy the actual cards and see what the "real" meta is like, so your results may vary here). I also play Standard pretty much exclusively right now, so this might not serve you that well at Regionals, depending on which format your local tournament runs in.
-Night March: You either need to have M Sceptile out (preferably a couple of them) or have very easy access to a thick line of bats to beat Night March reliably because the Prize trade is so heavily stacked in their favor. If Ariados could attack for [G] instead of [G][C], it'd be a pretty decent matchup, but as it stands Night March is risky for us.
-YZG: Having M Sceptile out is actively disadvantageous to you at least as often as it helps. M Sceptile makes it slightly harder for Yveltal-EX and Zoroark to get kills, sure, and not needing Ariados to hit its best numbers is nice, but its lower damage output relative to base Sceptile with Ariados support is a crucial flaw against this deck in my experience. Being able to OHKO baby Yveltal (and Gallade, if the opponent bothers to bring it out) goes a long way toward slowing down the Energy streaming that makes Yveltal-EX into the huge threat it's trying to be. I've also seen a couple of weird variants carrying a copy or two of Zoroark BREAK, and against these cases, it's better for Foul Play to hit you for a maximum of 60 instead of 100.
-anything with Regice in it: All Sceptile variants I've experimented with have major problems with Regice because there just aren't any solid non-EX attackers that fit well in a Grass deck. Virizion AOR is OK, I guess, but it can't really do much unless you're behind on Prizes, which is a problem because Regice walls the hell out of everything else we carry and can 2HKO Virizion (Virizion can't 2HKO back unless you've got a Muscle Band on it). That promo Jirachi can slow it down if it's relying on DCE, possibly even long enough for Sceptile-EX to eliminate it next turn, but that goes out the window if Regice was powered up by M Manectric (which is what I see most often on TCGO, with the occasional Regice/Glalie-EX deck showing up). If you're running Sceptile/bats, you have a somewhat better chance against Regice in general, but the amount of deck space they take up makes it impractical to run them in the same deck as M Sceptile, so you've got a tough decision to make there.
-M Manectric variants: Thankfully not as common as they used to be, since Metal Ray isn't seen much anymore, but still potentially obnoxious. These wouldn't be so bad on the whole if it wasn't for Rough Seas, which turns your 2HKOs into 3HKOs (I'm assuming M Sceptile with Ariados support vs M Manectric; a base Sceptile with Ariados support gets the 2HKO either way and then gets killed right away by whatever M Manectric was powering up with Turbo Bolt). They also commonly run Regice, which is a pain in the ass, as I mentioned before.
-Entei/Charizard: There's been a dramatic increase in the number of Entei/Charizard decks recently, which is really bad for us because they set up incredibly fast, steamroll everything we carry, and have an advantage in the Prize trade because Entei isn't an EX. Entei is also extremely difficult to kill now that Fighting Fury Belt exists, turning what used to be a case of "almost an auto-loss" into "basically an auto-loss".
-Manectric/bats: M Sceptile is in a good position against any kind of bat deck due to Theta Stop, but Assault Laser is a bit of a pain. We fare about the same against Lucario/Hawlucha/bats decks, but I haven't seen any of those in a while.
-Toad/Garbodor: A big part of the reason I run Xerosic over Startling Megaphone, although I might just have to start carrying a copy of each. Either way, Toad decks really don't like us because we've got cheap attacks to hit Toad for Weakness, and if they don't get Garbodor up right away (or if we can get M Sceptile out before we're item-locked) then we can straight-up OHKO it. Garbodor is really the only thing that makes these decks annoying, since the lack of Ariados support takes away our OHKO potential. Still a favorable matchup overall, regardless of which Sceptile variant we're running.
-Fairy decks: These have maintained some sort of presence for a while despite unfavorable conditions, and bringing Max Potion back into Standard is going to result in a popularity spike for them, although they're certainly never hitting tier one on account of their terrible Night March matchup. I am REALLY not looking forward to the Fairy resurgence, as the near-impossibility of getting OHKOs on their main attackers with a Sceptile deck makes this a pretty unfavorable matchup for all Sceptile variants. Sceptile/bats fares a little better than the others, as a Sceptile-EX with Ariados support and a couple of Golbat (or one, if you have a Muscle Band equipped) can take out an unevolved Gardevoir-EX you Lysandre out, but if they manage to get M Gardevoir out it's still an uphill battle.
-Garchomp variants: You either need to get M Sceptile out FAST or have multiple Sceptile-EX on the field and quick access to bats/Muscle Band. Basically, who wins this one is determined by who sets up first. I'm so glad the new Garchomp is Grass-weak - it'd be a colossal pain in the ass otherwise, bigger even than the old Chomp decks from before the last rotation.
-Magnezone turbochargers: M Sceptile variants do better against these than bat variants. Base Sceptile-EX with Ariados support is all you need to smack around Magnezone and the deck's attackers, but having a Mega active decreases the likelihood of Fisherman-powered revenge-kills if they have multiple Pikachu-EX out.
-Turbo Dragons: I'm referring to those decks that use Turboblaze Reshiram to power up Giratina-EX and M Rayquaza-EX (Dragon). These aren't a very good matchup for Sceptile decks. The fact that all our attackers are EX cards means we don't get to really punish M-Ray's Energy discarding with a favorable Prize trade, damage reduction from Delta Wild makes M-Ray infuriatingly tough to kill, and Giratina-EX walls M Sceptile completely. Sceptile/Ariados/bats is the only Sceptile variant that can take this deck on semi-consistently.
-Trevenant lock decks: I've been seeing a ton of these over the past week or so for some reason. I'm not sure how much of it has to do with the utility of the deck itself and how much is just the novelty factor of Ascension Phantump making a quick lock possible. Anyway, once you have a fully energized Sceptile-EX and Ariados out, these decks crumble before you, but beware of the Breakpoint Trevenant that's usually teched in here as 1 or 2 of their count - that thing is a massive pain when combined with the large numbers of hammers these decks carry. That Trevenant is no longer a problem if you can evolve, but the evo is tough to manage if they have Trevenant XY. Lysandre is your friend here, basically. Sceptile/bats variants don't do as well against Trev-lock because the bats and Level Balls take up so much extra space.
-Mewtwo variants: I hear these are fairly rare in real life because of their bad matchup against Night March, but I see enough of them online that it's worth a passing mention. You really want M Sceptile out as fast as possible here for the increased longevity. As a bonus, a lot of these decks carry Shrine of Memories, which lets M Sceptile use Unseen Claw. Overall, probably a better-than-average matchup.
I get the feeling I'm forgetting one or two common decks, but I'm not sure. Chalk it up to being up past 3AM every night for the past few weeks, I guess.
Anyway, some final thoughts: based on matchups against the decks I see most commonly, the current meta doesn't seem especially well-suited to Sceptile-EX decks. There are a fair few decks we do pretty decently against, including YZG (which ties with Night March for best deck in format), but Sceptile-EX has almost no truly good matchups and hates a couple of common decks, and that really hurts it. The addition of Fighting Fury Belt is potentially advantageous to the Sceptile/bats variant, though, and that's one I'm going to be experimenting with a little more next week. Regardless of which variant you're running, Super Scoop Up is your friend! I don't even run a bat variant right now, but you'd be surprised how well including a couple of those will serve you in terms of resource conservation for M Sceptile decks. Oh yeah, and don't run Lugia-EX in any variant. It's pretty slow to set up and doesn't have a very good damage output for the modern meta.
I hope this wall of text was helpful! Good luck!
Thank you for the help!
