Finished Mafia 53: Twilight's Kingdom

[Camoclone]

Neither of you showed how this plan wouldn't work.

If this plan pulls off (and I don't see why it won't), we can start Day 4:

Low risk, high reward (or, by a conservative assessment, medium risk high reward):
- with a potential Indie threat dead
- with a solid Luis lynch for Day 4
- a mafian buddy of Luis lynched OR one less person on the PoE list
- plenty of information regarding Luis' choice of wagon for today, as well as information (from that lynch) so that Day 4 is more productive, despite it being a seer day

No risk, low reward; if we lynch Luis now:

- a mafian is eliminated via a seer day
- we have limited information on Luis'/Aqua's (limited) interactions with past players


I actually said that we need to lynch someone who's flip will contribute to the hunt for the mafians. An indie lynch will not help this, but lynching someone is on the PoE list will - and profoundly so if the lynch is correct. (Luis has admitted to being mafian, and so lynching him won't contribute anything new.)

10 players left. Probably three scum. 6 town, 3 scum, 1 indie. If we mislynch today 5 town, 3 scum, 1 indie. If scum NK town 4 town, 3 scum, 1 indie. We lynch Luis. 4 town, 2 scum, 1 indie. Town NK. 3 town, 2 scum, 1 indie.

If we lynch Luis today. 6 town, 2 scum, 1 indie. Town NK. 5 town, 2 scum, 1 indie. This situation gives us a whole mislynch after today. With yours we have to not mislynch after today. Not to mention believing anything scum says never ends well. A potential no lynch could possibly work (or NP lynch).
6 town, 3 scum, 1 indie. Town NK. 5 town, 3 scum, 1 indie. Worst case we can waste our second lynch on the indie and maximize our odds. 5 town, 3 scum. Town NK. 4 town, 3 scum. This completely maximizes our odds and provides room for error.

 

[Mariano11887]

Welp.

##UNVOTE
##VOTE: Luispipe8

Active Ability: World's Strongest
Unlocked. The magic of a fallen princess has given you a significant boost in power. Once a game during any night, you may PM me ##OVERPOWER: Player. You will automatically perform the night kill, and you will use your supreme strength to ignore any sort of protection that player has on them. (If another member of the Deadly Alliance uses an ability that forces them to perform the night kill, only the first one submitted will be honored.)

Good luck killing NP now. ;o

What? Help me understand this.
1) Does it mean that Luis will be in charge of the nightkill if he uses it tonight?
2) Why does he votes himself?
3) Why does it say "if another member of the Deadly Alliance"? It means he is a Mafian?
4) Why does he mention NP at the end?

There's no mind games to be played. Even if I'm spared so I can kill you I'm 800% dead tomorrow.
You're as much as a threat to us than you are to town, because you're a survivor. You're the tipping point of the game. You'll side with whoever you need and any time you need to. Sure, both us and town can win alongside you, but you can make sure one of them fails miserably. And, if town ever needs you dead then my partners will simply piece apart the town slowly while trying to get rid of you.
So for the most benefit of both factions we should instead get rid of you so that nobody gets the unpleasant surprise of being screw over by you.

I think I said what I had to say already, so I'mma just sit back, relax, see how the Day ends and if, by any chance, I survive, I'll just kill you and sit happily in my grave afterwards.

Just a closing thought, though. It kind of bummed me out the only lead you had on me was Nick's and not actually on me, but oh well, I can live with it.

If this is my final post then ty so much @PMJ for the game!

And this post confuses me even more. There's more than 2 IRL days left in this game Day and he says this is his last post? What kind of town mentaility is that?
##UNVOTE
VIRTUALVOTE: Luispipe8 (not doing an actual vote because I'm don't know how many votes he has)

Luis also reiterated what I pointed out earlier -- the mafians would (should) consider NP just as much of a threat as the town at MYLO, and potentially even more so. They probably can't win with him alive, so we can trust Luis to kill NP. We then have the option to lynch someone who is a likely Luis buddy today (instead of Day 4), Luis kills NP tonight (he pretty much has to, otherwise the mafians have no chance), and then we lynch Luis the day after. We net 1 OR 2 mafians AND the indie + plenty more information.

No, this is a risky play. If we are almost sure that Luis is scum, he needs to die now. If he is scum, most probable thing is that he is lying about his ability.
You voted Drac as an alternate lynch, who isn't a bad option, but for tomorrow.

If this plan pulls off (and I don't see why it won't)

I can tell why it may not work... Because the risk of mislynching again is increased! If we are 90% sure Luis is Mafia, and 60% Drac is Mafia (this is just an example), why would we risk killing Drac with a 40% chance of failing vs a 10% chance on Luis? Plus, mabe tomorrow we have more info to determine more precisely Drac's alignment.

 

[bbninjas]

You are not cleared, am I wrong? Or just including yourself there for your own argument's sake?

Argument's sake I guess (no I am not cleared), although in hindsight, I probably should have omitted my name entirely from my list.

I'm going to move Mariano to town as well. No scum would have tried to pull what he did without consulting first. And if he's town and to be believed in his claim (which is true because he literally has my role PM), then it narrows the list further.

Oh, right! I forgot about this - Mariano would go on my "probably town list" as well.

So your suggestion on how to win the game is the lynch Luis->Drac->Jabber->Mariano?
Also btw for those not aware BB 1000% counts as having an agenda to stay off Camo.

My list was not ranked (and I am not ranking it today for the reason stated, among others). Not 100% sure what you meant by the red (or why you tried to hide it), but it's of note that I have been questioning Camo moreso than others.

10 players left. Probably three scum. 6 town, 3 scum, 1 indie. If we mislynch today 5 town, 3 scum, 1 indie. If scum NK town 4 town, 3 scum, 1 indie. We lynch Luis. 4 town, 2 scum, 1 indie. Town NK. 3 town, 2 scum, 1 indie.

If we lynch Luis today. 6 town, 2 scum, 1 indie. Town NK. 5 town, 2 scum, 1 indie. This situation gives us a whole mislynch after today. With yours we have to not mislynch after today. Not to mention believing anything scum says never ends well. A potential no lynch could possibly work (or NP lynch).
6 town, 3 scum, 1 indie. Town NK. 5 town, 3 scum, 1 indie. Worst case we can waste our second lynch on the indie and maximize our odds. 5 town, 3 scum. Town NK. 4 town, 3 scum. This completely maximizes our odds and provides room for error.

'

Appreciated; ##UNVOTE

 

[Zone Q11]

And here are are at it again. Can you stop guessing my aldad gnment based on my activeness. My activity level are based on my real life activities rather then my roles

But the fact remains that without passing a minimum amount of activity, we can't get enough talk to do anything either.
Well... for now:
-> You don't want to vote NP, so are you going to vote LuisPipe or not? He's been confirmed as scum by Cel's mason buddy.
-> I have confirmed that Cel is town, so based on Post #775 this would mean that either one among Cel and Camo is scum, or both are town correct? Well, my bet is on the former. I am still not over the fact that he wants to lynch NP, but I do prefer to have at least one scum killed.

Active Ability: World's Strongest
Unlocked. The magic of a fallen princess has given you a significant boost in power. Once a game during any night, you may PM me ##OVERPOWER: Player. You will automatically perform the night kill, and you will use your supreme strength to ignore any sort of protection that player has on them. (If another member of the Deadly Alliance uses an ability that forces them to perform the night kill, only the first one submitted will be honored.)


Good luck killing NP now. ;o

Well, it isn't as if we need to kill NP to win the game anyway, right? I mean, why can't the indie win alongside town?

 

[bbninjas]

What? Help me understand this.
1) Does it mean that Luis will be in charge of the nightkill if he uses it tonight?
2) Why does he votes himself?
3) Why does it say "if another member of the Deadly Alliance"? It means he is a Mafian?
4) Why does he mention NP at the end?

1) He might be implying that one of the mafians has to perform the nightkill. This is significant because it can be blocked / driven / etc; and it would make sense in light of Luis' claimed Ability.
2) Luis is admitting that he is in fact mafian (and that there is no hope for his survival).
3) Correct.
4) Luis' claimed Ability would bypass NP's claimed bulletproof, and so Luis could kill NP with one attempt. (Luis is saying that he's everyone's best option, if we want to remove NP from the game).

 

[bbninjas]

And here are are at it again. Can you stop guessing my aldad gnment based on my activeness. My activity level are based on my real life activities rather then my roles

You responses (including how you directly responded to my vote on you) shows that you are still reading the thread fine, and so the level of activity that you are displaying would not prevent you from scumhunting, writing up questions, casting a vote or giving one-line reads, one-line comments or basic conclusions, among the others thing I mentioned.

Aside, @Celever would you be fine with confirming whether or not your QT informant is in that list of PoE suspects (Jabber / Camo / Keeper / Drac / me)? I should be able to narrow down that list even further, and my thinking is that if we can take off a further two more players, that leaves us with a fantastic 'final 3'.

 

[Mariano11887]

Aside, @Celever would you be fine with confirming whether or not your QT informant is in that list of PoE suspects (Jabber / Camo / Keeper / Drac / me)? I should be able to narrow down that list even further, and my thinking is that if we can take off a further two more players, that leaves us with a fantastic 'final 3'.

Hmmm... I'm not sure if he should say it now. We have a clear lead to lynch today (Luis), we don't need to know (or hint) Cel's mason buddy. Don't give information to scum while we don't really need it now, we can see tomorrow if it's worth it.
Yeah, Cel can be NK'd tonight and wouldn't be able to say it, but if that happens, his mason can claim it tomorrow if it's necessary. Celever is a smart player and I'm sure he can leave some instructions to his buddy in case he is killed. If two players claim being his mason, well, we know for sure one of them is scum, we lynch the scummiest between them.
I don't know, it's just an opinion.

 

[Camoclone]

Mariano is right.

 

[Camoclone]

We should just end the day.

 

[Jabberwock]

I agree with the points on Drac, but not lynching Luis is a massive mistake today. Zone is right in that we /can/ win without lynching NP, and I think it's just gonna be too much to commit two entire lynches to be rid of somebody who isn't mechanically a threat. (And yeah, it'd be two lynches –– any plan assuming that the scum will play along is doomed to fail from the off).

I'm slightly bothered by bb's insistence on it 'cos it reads like a desperate scum ploy to save a buddy (even if it's only for one day, because Luis does have a v strong Ability that would be worth using tonight). Asking confoscum who they thought would be a good lynch seems off, too. :thinking:

Ik I'm on the PoE list of potential scum; I'll get around to defending myself when we don't have a clear lynch, as it'll involve parts of my role that scum don't need to know about a Day in advance. :/

##UNVOTE
##VOTE: LUISPIPE8

 

[bbninjas]

I am actually keen to hear Cel's final thoughts on the recent developments before the lynch, considering he's the one who instigated it, so I think that should happen before a day end.

Hmmm... I'm not sure if he should say it now. We have a clear lead to lynch today (Luis), we don't need to know (or hint) Cel's mason buddy. Don't give information to scum while we don't really need it now, we can see tomorrow if it's worth it.

Fair enough, worth thinking about now for tomorrow then.

 

[bbninjas]

I'm slightly bothered by bb's insistence on it 'cos it reads like a desperate scum ploy to save a buddy (even if it's only for one day, because Luis does have a v strong Ability that would be worth using tonight). Asking confoscum who they thought would be a good lynch seems off, too. :thinking

Bolded, I asked because Luis' apparent reads could be of use upon Luis' flip (albeit, certain responses could have been WIFOMy). Luis declined to comment eitherway - though it was still worth a shot.

 

[Jabberwock]

(albeit, certain responses could have been WIFOMy)

Yeah, exactly. There's not a single response he could've given that I would've put stock in, because it would've been guaranteed to have been discussed between Luis and his buddies beforehand and have been absolutely laden with WIFOM.

 

[GM DracLord]

But the fact remains that without passing a minimum amount of activity, we can't get enough talk to do anything either.
Well... for now:
-> You don't want to vote NP, so are you going to vote LuisPipe or not? He's been confirmed as scum by Cel's mason buddy.
-> I have confirmed that Cel is town, so based on Post #775 this would mean that either one among Cel and Camo is scum, or both are town correct? Well, my bet is on the former. I am still not over the fact that he wants to lynch NP, but I do prefer to have at least one scum killed.

Well, it isn't as if we need to kill NP to win the game anyway, right? I mean, why can't the indie win alongside town?

Of course im voting luis. But i dont plan ti give scum any turbo lynch and end the day earlier and loose day.
Jabber and bb might made a good scum team but that would be to obvious if they keep agreeing with one another so atleast i think one of them is an actual scum

So one of those 2, and mariano might be be part of the team also

 

[Mariano11887]

So one of those 2, and mariano might be be part of the team also

I had a dejavu when I read this. Didn't you do the same with jplap 2 games ago where you won as scum?

 

[Celever]

Aside, @Celever would you be fine with confirming whether or not your QT informant is in that list of PoE suspects (Jabber / Camo / Keeper / Drac / me)? I should be able to narrow down that list even further, and my thinking is that if we can take off a further two more players, that leaves us with a fantastic 'final 3'.

Hehehe I was gonna make a post now about this anyway but sure I'll have it respond to this question too. The whole seering Luis as a mafian thing was a bluff because I was fairly confident in my read but couldn't really find enough to make a conclusive case so I just wanted to see his reaction and whether he'd fight it or not (because mafia really wouldn't have a reason to fight it). I would've carried on the bluff but I realised that if the mafia caught on that they could claim to be the seer, wouldn't be counterclaimed because the seer doesn't actually exist, and then a mafia could ride out the rest of the game.

Suspects
Zone Q11 -- Confo'd Cel, town lean
Camoclone
Keeper of Night - I consider the bomb claim non alignment indicative
Mariano11887
Jabberwock
GM DracLord - most evidence for mafian alignment

For the sake of posterity and because I doubt I'm gonna survive the night, I agree with the consensus that Camo is the best lynch tomorrow. I still maintain that I think Drac is town, and I have town reads on Keeper, Mariano and Zone. I'm pretty much indifferent on Jabs and can't find anything that makes me think "yes Jabs is definitely town" but also can't find anything that makes me think "yes Jabs must be scum". The only scumlean left is honestly bb, so I would say Luis -> Camo -> bb for my preferred lynch order. But obviously we could find out new things lol, and Jabs over bb is very possible.

 

[Mariano11887]

I had a dejavu when I read this. Didn't you do the same with jplap 2 games ago where you won as scum?

For the people who don't know what I am talking about, it was a game where Drac was scum and tunnelled Jplap (town) for 3 whole game Days without an actual reason.

 

[Celever]

Oh I was gonna cut that list out of the post after I was done before posting but forgot lmao. Just wanted a playerlist :U

 

[Luispipe8]

I'm not saying that you can't win with NP. Mechanically, both factions can. But the moment he decides "I'll side with X" then Y is screwed. And he can literally decide this at will anytime he wants.
And what do I win living another day if I'm as good as dead anyways? I'm getting no info tonight. My passive, as you could notice already, lynches me at L+1; and my Active was locked until last night that we killed a princess (sm), which I'll use to get rid of the survivor.

Still I didn't think this was even going to be considered; but just mark my words that, if you end up in MYLO and/or NP screws you around, I'll lmfao in my grave all until next game xD

@Mariano11887 I "gave up" beacuse there's no realistic way I can counter that claim, lol. All I was going to do is grasp at the shortest straw in the world. And it's not like I'm attempting something different, but this straw in particular can prove useful to /both/ factions. But no, the moment Celever claimed my alignment (hate u </3 ) I was as dead as I could be.

 

[Celever]

FWIW if the rest of the town agreed I would genuinely support giving Luis a chance to kill NP tonight. I think he probably would follow through on that word because, like he said, it helps his faction, too.

But eh I don't realy care.