Theoretically yes, if that were how he explained it. But he didn't explain it; the only substance he gave to his hypothetical vote was the fact that he had previously called Amici out way back in D2.
Yeah... this was the explanation I had in mind as well. Scattered quoting his old reads as if to suggest that's why he's obviously voting Amici is strange.
Yes! This is exactly one of the things that bothered me about him that he still has to comment on. I don't town read scattered because my reasoning is still there - even now he's still ignoring stuff.
Alright, well, pretty sure Jabber is town at this point. He's been consistently making colossal efforts to dig up new evidence from past Days and using it to raise some good points, most of which were either forgotten or entirely new. He seems to be genuinely solving and there's really nothing that jumps out at me or bothers me in some way. I don't see scum!Jabber putting this much effort into the game during MYLO, so by PoE that only leaves Ephemera and scattered.
I've joked that bb and Jabber are posting very similarly this game - to the point where I almost called out Jabber because one of his replies reminded of one of bb's almost verbatim, but as it turned out, the reply I was reminded of was actually just Jabber's, hence the striking similarity - but I don't think I can give Jabber town points for doing the same thing bb is doing while not giving bb any, especially with the context of bb in past Days.
I still think Ephemera is townier than scattered, and now that I've gone from a neutral to town read in his eyes for making a case on him - but not bb or Jabber, who have also made cases on him - I'm starting to think it may just be to get me off his trail.
Major scumread on amici which is growing the more she keeps being silent.
Pretty big town read on vom
Lily is null but if she keeps behaving new with I’m new posts it will become suspicious.
Ephemera gives too much I am scum signals. But the chaotic nature is confusing. It’s a real gamble.
I give my initial readlist- Amici's reasoning will come right after that post. I don't remember why I didn't explain my reasoning for vom honestly. Lily's reasoning will come later on and this was sort of a warning call for her to start talking. Ephemera's reasoning is right there.
no it’s your attempt to distant yourself from eph plus avoiding questions regarding your connection. Plus my read did make you come out of the shadows so I don’t feel bad.
Well, it might just end up looking bad maybe but I just think it's off that you never answered or related to the accusasions regarding you and eph. Nor to the opposite that suggests that you are probably not scum together, which I was what I said. When looking at how you immediately responded to posts at the beginning even if it was just a fluf perhaps, it is off to me that you went that silent. We can all blame IRL things but still it's a thing that right now makes me suspect that you were trying to get under the radar.
Asking eph to give me more of his input on bbninjas. And then I was gone for a while in which Amici started to be active again but I wasn't. Here's how my first post after coming back starts:
im back! so sorry for disappearing like that. im going to invest more time to compansate. I skimmed the thread and so i do need to do some rereads but:
celever's case is weak- The case seems to be basically that he is not as active like he usually is.. which is true but he does that as scum and town. There was one game I remember him being inactive across d2 and he was scum. But still, it's not enough to jump on that wagon and I imagine that if eph is scum- then the scum mate jumped on that wagon as soon as they saw the opputunity.
ephemera is a wild card and I honestly don't mind voting them. The only thing that prevents me from doing that is the thought that there must be a better choice than that. But the day is close to ending so I might jump on that wagon myself.
I would actually vote Lily- normally new town players try to contribute or just stay inactive. history on this site shows that new scum players does things differently- they make sure they pop in and out even if they don't have something to say, and they make sure to answer questions but without giving away too much details or thoughts, which is what i see here with Lily. very similar play as mordacazir back in the game he played first as scum.
jade is scummy to me. They echo and they dont seem to commit much to any thought even in that meta read jade posted it looked as if they want to show that they contribute but they obsolutely don't want to reveal what they really think.
@Vom you are not the only one who says bb rubs them the wrong way, (a very funny english expression you got there) but since i remember you saying it im going to ask you- how exactly? and can you make a case or a clearer point?
notice that I ask Amici a question there- I am still pursuing with what I got as I also try to solve other cases. At that point Lily was another scumread which I explained there.
Also here is where I state how celever's case is weak as I understood it as a case of someone inactive and lurking.
Got a nice lead on eph from bbninjas. At that point Amici is in the back of my mind because there are other cases to deal with and the day is ending, no body including Amici responded to my case so I decided to leave it to D2. Like I decided to do with Lily and Jade.
I don't like that passive play though. The more I look into it I understand the case on you. It's not really just inactivity and meta read. Can you really not see that? this post doesnt feel reliable.
Here I explain why I did vote Celever eventually- That passive comment he gave was weird to me and I wanted him to respond to my question. He didn't and I just thought - either this is scum or he doesn't care about the game - which is not my smartest moves since you don't punish someone for not caring about the game by eliminating them- thats the host job. so that was a mistake. I kinda realized that back then and I then Celever brought up Amici out of all people - Amici the one that I scumread but no one commented on so far including herself - I was excited to reply "yes please" and yes I didn't think about how it looks that I agree with the one I am currently eliminating.
That is all I have to explain about Amici and Celever at least from D1. I hope it explains my way of thinking as best as possible.
Alright, well, pretty sure Jabber is town at this point. He's been consistently making colossal efforts to dig up new evidence from past Days and using it to raise some good points, most of which were either forgotten or entirely new. He seems to be genuinely solving and there's really nothing that jumps out at me or bothers me in some way. I don't see scum!Jabber putting this much effort into the game during MYLO, so by PoE that only leaves Ephemera and scattered.
Of course he would! Without doing that he would have been the only valid option to eliminate for the majority of players here. Before his big case on me you were the only one to consider me scummy. If scum, he had to do this to make sure he is not the option left in PoE.
I really like scattered's Day 1 thought progression - it is clear and logical (and a lot clearer than mine from day 2 rip). Anyway, I'd summarise the case on scattered like this:
Points:
- scattered has been cagey / hasn't explained his reads.
- Defends the lurker-Cel wagon, but then votes for that wagon.
- Missing Day 1 Amici / Fiery progression.
- scattered's "yes please" comment to Cel
Refutes:
- Refuted - scattered has shown above that he did explain his reads in the above posts. @scattered mind, follow up question, why didn't you immediately explain your reads in the same post? @Jabberwock You would've read the posts where scattered explains his reads. Why did you not consider these in your ISO?
- Refuted - scattered has progression on Cel - he was MIA for a bit (fair) and Cel is the new wagon when he returns (cool). He oversimplifies it (expected), and after engaging with the thread, he realises that he did oversimplify it (fair). His Cel vote still has flaws (uncooperative =/= scum), but that's no different to the other 5 people on that wagon. This means the vote is very WIFOMy: would town!scattered be caught up in the heat of the moment and vote Cel even if uncooperative =/= scum? I don't know.
- Refuted - scattered has shown that he consistently questioned / pressured Amici and Fiery throughout Day 1.
- Refuted - is explained by the Amici progression. I can't see scum!scattered forging this link if scattered's "yes please" comment wasn't related to the Amici progression, so I think this is NAI.
Points that I don't think are refuted:
- Missing Day 2 Amici / Fiery progression (Why did scattered go for the bbn case instead of pursuing the Amici or Fiery cases?)
- Missing Day 3 Amici progression (Why did scattered quote his Day 1 scumreads in the below post as the reason for voting Amici, instead of voting Amici due to Mega flipping scum or evidence suggesting Amici=scum mentioned in the prior Day 3 discussion?)
Major scumread on amici which is growing the more she keeps being silent.
Pretty big town read on vom
Lily is null but if she keeps behaving new with I’m new posts it will become suspicious.
Ephemera gives too much I am scum signals. But the chaotic nature is confusing. It’s a real gamble.
Obviously my vote goes to Amici. Unless I find something on Jade as I'm about to semi ISO their posts. (because the ISO in this site is hell)
Objectively looking at the game I understand that Amici and myself are the best candidate for elimination so I need you to ask me questions because I want to prove why I'm not scum.
Aside from that I am going to lock down my reads about my other suspect Jade.
This Fiery quote is a little suss, it looks coached. New town don't usually talk about "panic-voting", that's a more advanced term. New town would say "I panicked and voted for him".
Thats a bit strange cause the points bbninjas is raising contradict your thought about amici and eph unlikely being on the same alliance. After eph responded, what are you leaning to more?
I can't remember if it's been raised but this quote is early Day 1 and is being directed at Mega. i.e. Scattered starts putting suspicion on Mega early in the game, which is odd to do if a scumbuddy.
So here's a weird observation: Jabber is being very diplomatic in his solving and is doing a very good job at not causing fights.
It's the dumbest scumtell ever - but scum desperately don't want to cause fights in this day phase because it is guaranteed to get them votes, while town technically won't care as much. Jabber was even diplomatic in how he corrected scattered who seems to have misunderstood the case on him. Town theoretically would get more frustrated when their top scumread is not addressing the crux of their case. So... is Jabber being over-diplomatic? Yay or nay?
This Fiery quote is a little suss, it looks coached. New town don't usually talk about "panic-voting", that's a more advanced term. New town would say "I panicked and voted for him".
Does anyone know if Fiery has experience playing games where "panic-voting" is a thing?
oh wow that's...
that's a thing. that i didn't notice.
Is that applicable to BB? (Big Brother, which Lily plays, not bbninjas btw)
I don't know – you typically think a lot about votes in BB, so kinda strange for the panic-voting thing.
scattered's post on his thought process lines up with what I thought of him D1. Currently he's still in the PoE, but looking pretty darn good off of that one post.
I'll try to go over the EoDs real quick, sorry I've been out for today, had an event.
current rainbow before EoD analysis
jade - mech lock
vom - pretty darn towny
bb - moderate townread
scattered - mild townread, still part of PoE
jabber - kinda null? I'd vote here mostly due to PoE plus the panic-voting thing, which is definitely something that could have been coached by a scumbuddy. Don't know for sure but that's not great.
Okay, I've just done a backread and am pretty convinced that Vom is scum. It's a long post and I do not expect Vom to respond to the content itself. I'm not even sure if Vom can defend themself against most of these points, as they are based largely on actions (points 1 and 2) or theoretical scenarios (points 3).
Here's the tl;dr:
Vom ignored Mega for all of Day 1, and did not ignore anyone else
Vom nitpicked Eph's reads, except for Eph's townread on Mega (the read that favoured scum)
The Mega bus was the only beneficial option for Vom; a bbn vote would have been suicide
##VOTE: Vom
This vote is probably parked. I may get back within an hour before EoD, but it is not guaranteed. The final few hours before EoD will be critical if this is in fact MYLO - watch out for last minute switches from scum trying to save themself.
It is crucial that everyone, including Vom, considers and tear apart my case on Vom in the meantime. There's no time to "wait for Vom to respond". If there's a flaw,. it's in town's best interest to point it out immediately.
I believe today's elimination is between Jabber and Vom. Jabber by process of elimination (there's nothing that clears or condemns them, really), and Vom for reasons stated. Now, you're probably asking - why not scattered? As per #567, I believe all the main points on scattered have been refuted as untrue or NAI. Regarding concerns about scattered's progression on Amici / Fiery during Day 2 and Day 3, I think it's clear on reading back that scattered did continue pressuring Amici and Fiery over Day 2 (examples spoiler below) and Day 3 (hence 3Amici was lynched). Intsead of finding scumtells on scattered, I think there is plenty of towntells in their interactions with Mega: blatantly obvious buddying on Day 2 (weird for scumbuds to do), scattered pressured Mega immediately in early Day 1, stuff like that.
Amici has been sitting idly by watching the town destroy themselves, poking in to not contribute but look like they are. Like, 100% Amici is mafia and y'all should vote him tomorrow so here's my EoD reminder for when I flip town lol. IK this isn't a great case but it's true, I play by instincts and instincts say Amici = scum.
@Celever I hear you. that is one quote that looks like a careful defense on bb. The "from my POV at least" is placed there and it seems to me that's a use of words she wouldn't have to pick at the moment of just writing in an "are you kidding me?" sense. Hard to explain but yeah i would like to read more from her too.
Finally, however this game ends, I just want to say a massive thankyou to everyone who played! I've had a ton of fun from game start, and this last day phase is possibly the best day of mafia that I've ever played period. I've never before thought about solving so much! I'm super sorry to Eph, Mega and Vom for building massive cases on all you - I know how much that sucks from being at the other end of it - but I hope it can be sign of a respect. You all need to teach me how to make short cases :U. And to the scumteam - MASSIVE kudos, I honestly have no idea how this game will end.
Okay, so I've just backread, and here's an interesting fact. Vom did not talk about Mega at all before Megapod became a legitimate case in Day 2. Let's take a look.
Exhibit A - Vom ignored Mega for all of Day 1
Let's check the first post in which Vom interacts with each player (excluding joke-y RVS).
This means it took three hunded and fifty six posts for Vom to make any sort of reference to Mega whatsoever. This is despite:
- Mega putting Vom at the top of his townreads (why didn't Vom question this?)
- A brief discussion about Mega by Eph (see Exhibit B)
- Mega being mentioned at least 65+ times during Day 1
- Vom quoting two posts that mentioned Mega during Day 1, and still ignored Mega
If we take at look at when Mega first mentions each player:
Once again, Vom is one of the last players to be mentioned. And unlike Fiery, who gets a pressure question in #139, Vom becomes Mega's top townread without any explanation. Mega never expands on this.
I don't believe town!Vom would ignore an entire player for an entire day in such a small game. On the other hand, scum nearly always distance themselves from their scumbuddies early on (which Mega did, and scum!Vom did).
Exhibit B - Vom nitpicks Eph's reads, except for Eph's read on Mega
Let's take a look at some of those posts around #160 where there was some discussion of a Mega case, cause the Mega x Vom interaction gets weirder. Context before #160: Eph townreads Amici and people are confused; Vom starts tunnelling Eph a bit.
Misinterpreting me here. She is very towny to me, but I'm not gonna lock that for the whole game – if i'm wrong, it's super easy to coast on that pocket if i never reevaluate.
I don't think I'm wrong, but then again I never do, so if somehow I can no longer talk in thread at some point, I don't want my posts to be read as locking amici 100% town.
Yeah, I know scattered's a good player so I'm sure he has some reason to openly admit to withholding information.
...
Ok now that I typed that it seems really scummy. I can see town!scattered waiting for a reaction or something before giving out reads, but I'm having more and more trouble believing that the longer he waits.
Also, I was referring to this post - really the only post where he seems to add to the discussion.
Huh. I personally interpreted scattered's mindset differently – read to me like he was trying not to give out reads yet so he wouldn't get confbiased (confirmation bias) on little info.
Also, he's given out reads now, what do you make of them?
Huh. I personally interpreted scattered's mindset differently – read to me like he was trying not to give out reads yet so he wouldn't get confbiased (confirmation bias) on little info.
First two quotes: Vom picks apart inconsistencies in Eph's townread on Amici.
Second two quotes: After Eph explains away the inconsistency in the Amici read, Vom picks apart inconsistencies in Eph's read on scattered.
Jade's newest post is very towny. Asking solving questions, putting suspicion in good places, comfortable with banter. Add that to his other few posts and my townread on him is strengthening.
Now that I've actually slept, lemme check Mega again.Macro read on him is null-town, voted him to see what would happen based on that one post where he was very hedgy.Results of that: he voted me back, although based on a misunderstanding of my intentions.Huh. I was getting a better impression of Mega but writing it out his reaction doesn't seem too good. Still, overall his posts aren't too suspicious, so I think I can move somewhere else for now. ##UNBLEH: MegaPod_781##COMEBACK: Celever
What do you think of the interactions now?
So yeah. From my conscious perspective I have reasons for all of them that aren't the read they have on me. Subconsciously the read they have on me may affect my train of thought, I don't know. But I have legitimate reasons for thinking there's scum in vom/cel/bb/mega, and also that amici and vom are probably town.
Vom skips over Eph's read on Mega, and continues the trend of picking apart's Eph's reads - this time Eph's read on Vom.
Vom managed to pick apart every read from Eph in this section, except for the read that was favourable for scum.
Exhibit C: It is most beneficial for Vom to bus Mega
My earlier theory that Vom bussed Mega was reliant on whether or not Vom waited. But after reflecting on that, it really doesn't matter! Perhaps scum!Vom would've waited, or perhaps scum!Vom would have been planning on bussing outside of extraordinary circumstances. What does matter is whether or not Vom left their options open, and I think she did from the get-go in their Thoughts™ post.
Now, to the question of whether it'd be beneficial for Vom to bus Mega? I think it is.
Option 1 - Elim bbninjas
Let's consider the scenario where Vom doesn't bus Mega.
Day 2 - bbn is eliminated.
Now, multiple people (including Vom) had indicated that they believe one of bbn or Mega is scum. Hence...
Day 3 - Mega elimination is very likely
Now what would happen Day 4? Well, Vom and scattered voted bbn on Day 2 instead of Mega, so they are suss for being on the wrong side of the wagon. This puts Vom in the bottom two of everyone's reads, and scattered is Vom's only miselim option. But what if Day 4 isn't MYLO and Vom would still need to survive Day 5? Vom's odds are looking very bad.
That's providing Vom even survives Day 4 - Vom will be even more suss than scattered because they broke the tie in Mega's favour. That's a death sentence in nearly every game. Lynching bbninjas doesn't seem to be an option.
Option 2 - Bus Mega
Let's consider the bus option from scum!Vom's perspective.
Day 2 - Mega is eliminated
Who would be eliminated in Day 3? There's some good options. It's very clear that Vom was pushing for a scattered elimination. However, myself and someone else (?) was pushing for an Amici elimination. Hence, from Vom's perspective, we have:
Day 3 - scattered or Amici is eliminated
Day 4 - whoever survived Day 3 is eliminated (either scattered or Amici)
Vom is much more likely to survive Day 4 in this scenario, and with massive towncred to boot, potentially even a Day 5 elimination. The Mega bus is very viable, and perhaps forced.
*NOTE: Why didn't Vom just not vote? Vom doesn't get towncred in the case of Mega being eliminated, and if bbn is eliminated, we go to Mega elim on Day 3, and Vom still looks suss on Day 4 because they indicated they were going to vote on Day 2 - and people will ask why they didn't show up.
Wildcard option - Elim scattered
Now, remember that scum!Vom actually wanted scattered to be lynched Day 2. Why would eliminating scattered first matter to scum Vom? Well, think about it. scattered's an experienced player who's already been townread by most other players. This makes it difficult for Vom to guarantee a scattered elimination by Day 3 or Day 4. It would be best to get this elimination sooner rather than later in case scattered does something that clears himself. Instead, Vom has two nice options for a Day 4 elimination: Amici and Fiery, who both at this stage were inactive and pinging many people's scumdars.
And so, we see this is actually the best outcome for scum!Vom:
Day 2 - scattered is eliminated (assuming town flip)
Day 3 - Vom busses Mega (recalling that eliminating bbn is bad for scum!Vom)
Day 4 - Amici / Fiery elimination (As scummy lurkers)
Day 5 - Amici / Fiery elimination
With that towncred Vom could get from bussing Mega on Day 3, Vom can cruise to the end easily.
But when the scattered wagon gained very little momentum, Vom was forced into a position where they had to vote Mega and break the tie.
Also I just think that stuff comes from town lol it's so darn convenient that I want to trust you.
Okay, let's look at D1 wagons.
D1 wagons are me/Cel. FMPOV these are v/v, which I would like you to assume is correct for the following analysis.
The wagon on me lasted pretty much the whole day, with the first vote on me being Vom, which Cel and bb soon followed. Mega also put a vote onto me to launch my wagon ahead, then moved to Cel when I pushed it. The scum rationale for this is pretty obvious: make the wagons v/v and it's all cool.
Now, for individual people, besides town flips and locks.
bb got on my wagon pretty early and stayed there, the vote on me being... the only vote he made that day.
Vom voted Lily first, then moved to me and stayed there as well. Wow there's a lot less movement than I'd expected.
Lily only voted Cel last minute.
scattered voted amici first for scumreads, then lily for pressure iirc, then finally moved to Cel.
mega, as previously stated, seriously voted me first (i'm not counting his vote on bb, which wasn't serious and hence NAI), pushing my wagon into an early lead. He then switched to Cel.
A scumbuddy has a few options when wagons are v/v.
Vote the counterwagon
If scum take this option it's typically followed up by pushing people on the main wagon (not the scumbuddy). That makes bb look a lot better, given that he went for mega right out of the gate, and didn't take his vote off. I can't see scum!bb not pushing for someone else on main wagon before hitting mega with the bus.
For Vom, she followed something more akin to what you might see from counterwagon scum D1, voting scattered. But near EoD she decides to vote mega. There was a very viable bbninjas wagon at the time, and it would have made a lot of sense for Vom to vote there given her progression – and it would have been really easy to push me the next day given my initial pushing of the bb wagon then my removal of vote near EoD. Being the decider vote on Mega D2 is major town points for Vom.
Vote off-wagon
This option doesn't really work given the logic, since the only person off wagon who could still be scum is me, and if we take that to mean I'm scum, then wagons wouldn't be v/v.
That leaves us with the last option.
Vote the winning wagon
This option is a little more risky, since it puts a little suspicion on you for voting town at EoD. Given mega's vote on Cel though, I don't think scum worried too much about that.
Both lily's and scattered's votes on Cel were kind of last minute, and both made sense with their respective progressions.
Scattered thought a Cel elimination would do better for town than one on me, and Lily townread me.
Given that mega had made the wagons v/v (almost singlehandedly, props for that move ngl), I... where was I going with this again? lemme think.
Uh. I think I lost my train of thought a little. I'll put it if I remember, but suffice to say that bb and vom, the counterwagon D1, look pretty clean given their D2 voting.
Which basically confirms the PoE to Jabber/scattered, but it's nice to have a little confirmation of that.
She bussed mega. bb thinks this could come from scum vom. maybe. but it's easy to chain eliminate bb and then me, with a mega bus either between or after the fact.
Mega needed to put a fourth vote on me to ensure my wagon was in the lead. If Vom were scum I think she and mega push for two different targets, vom's being me and mega being someone else. Basically, if vom were scum mega wouldn't have needed to put that super scummy fourth vote on me.
Oh - and as promised, I checked Day 3 to see who was and who wasn't setting up a case for Day 4 (since scum knew Amici was going to flip town).
While Vom definitely wanted a scattered elim, they didn't post anything after Amici became the main case, so we can't know whether Vom would change tact or continue preparing the scattered wagon. Little scummy, but NAI to be safe.
Jabber was setting up a few elims, but mostly Eph. This does make sense from town!Jabber perspective because Jabber just arrived and has to figure out his reads; or it's scum!jabber setting up a Day 4. Pretty NAI in Jabber's case.
Now, scattered started Day 3 suggesting Amici or maybe Jade. Now, in the very next post, scattered is like "nope Jade is probably town". That means scattered invalidated his option for going into Day 4. I don't think scattered ended up setting up any different options anyone else during this time - not Jabber nor Eph. That means, scum!scattered decided to go into Day 4 knowing full-and-well that Amici would flip town, and he would be the scummiest player left. That's the other reason why I think scattered is town.
No one else really set up other wagons from what I could see.
Honestly, I do not understand your #576 analysis at all (I've never seen wagonomics done before so this is new to me). Like, how does Vom or me voting the counterwagon or the main wagon or the off wagon leave you with a Jabber / scattered PoE? I also think your analysis relies on the assumption that PokeBeach scumteams think a lot about when and how they vote, and how their teammates vote, which isn't my experience of PokeBeach scumteams.
Onto the blue, I really don't think my wagon was viable at the time. It came up in the last 12 hours, I think most people had already cast their votes (Vom included?), and I had not responded to the case yet. Apathy is real, especially when eliminating any active player out of nowhere.
She bussed mega. bb thinks this could come from scum vom. maybe. but it's easy to chain eliminate bb and then me, with a mega bus either between or after the fact.
Mega needed to put a fourth vote on me to ensure my wagon was in the lead. If Vom were scum I think she and mega push for two different targets, vom's being me and mega being someone else. Basically, if vom were scum mega wouldn't have needed to put that super scummy fourth vote on me.
I think it would have been very difficult to eliminate you after eliminating me. Many people (Vom included) were saying either Mega or bbn is scum. Hence, bbn = town then people would elim Mega. Not only would Vom have to backpedal (dangerous for scum), you'd have to convince Eph (dangerous) and deal with a very vocal treestump town bbn who really really really wants Mega to be eliminated.
I don't think this matters. It was (very) early Day 1 and you were literally the only wagon at the time, so I don't think scum would be thinking too much about maintaining majority. I also don't think scumteams think about "holding majority" on the Beach anyway; I don't I've never heard about wagonomics in my history of playing mafia, and the idea of the holding majority is a new (albiet cool) concept to me. I don't think Mega would know this concept either.
Gonna have to go over that again.
bb makes a pretty well-made case about vom bussing mega, but it could just be town!vom breaking the tie for mega.
idk.
I'm really just gonna have to complete my reread. Welp.
Will get on that now, hopefully at the end of it i have a suspect, since legitimately the biggest thing i have right now is lily's mention of panic-voting.
As laid out by bb, there is a world where vom plays the sophisticated scumgame, bussing mega while setting up scattered and amici. I don't think this is likely though.
bb - 20%
bb's more likely to be scum than vom, but not by much. I've liked his solving lately, and for the most part bb believes what he's saying.
scattered - 30%
scattered is significantly more likely to be scum than bb/vom, due to the kiiinda sketchy things he's been doing. However, I believe he's very similar to his town play of the past, as well as some actions he took just don't make sense from a scum perspective.
Hence the last one:
jabber - 35%
Jabber is kinda a null read for me, I can't tell whether he's town or not. But the other three all have compelling or somewhat compelling reasons for a townread, while Jabber is a blind spot.
Percentages are pretty arbitrary here. Still need to finish reread – i think D2 should give me some ideas.
