Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

[Vom]

I mean, the Ephe wagon was perfectly good and right there, with two active players voicing their support for it, it should've been an attractive wagon to avoid scrutiny - hence our brilliant theory that there was scum in your votes.

Cel is a perfectly good player even though sometimes he hangs on the lower activity side of things, but being new she couldn't have known that unless someone more experienced (Mega) told her about it. Cel is infamous for getting killed/eliminated early on (or at least that's the way it feels, sorry Cel lmao), but there was no way for her to know that.

 

[Vom]

the explanation being panicking also unfortunately works from either alignment – it makes sense that you panic at EoD whatever happens.

Maybe, but when you panic-vote you usually go for the safer/more popular wagon, which is not what Lily did there.

 

[Vom]

Geez, I'm talking myself into doubting Jabber. Hopefully he comes around for comment, but until then I'm putting my imaginary vote on him.

 

[Ephemera]

i mean at the time Cel was the more popular wagon

gonna check scattered's ISO, then leave the game in your hands.

one point in favor of scattered – mega's piggybacking strategy went off of town cases, the pushes mega made on D2 were related to scattered.

 

[Vom]

i mean at the time Cel was the more popular wagon

Was he? iirc Lily was on the latter half of Cel votes, but was not one of the last.

 

[Vom]

Was he? iirc Lily was on the latter half of Cel votes, but was not one of the last.

lol when Lily was actually the very last vote on Celever

 

[Ephemera]

scattered did a lot less D2 than I expected.

reading back on D2 i'm honestly surprised we caught scum there, low activity, etc etc.

points not in favor of scattered:
i kinda noticed that he's careful about his progression. could be scum making sure his reads were consistent and making sure people knew that as well.

honestly I have no idea whether it's scattered or jabber (or maybe bb in a tinfoil world but please don't vote bb lol that's HIGHLY unlikely) so i think i should
##UNVOTE: Jabberwock

scattered:

• + feels similar to his towngames
• + doesn't care if he looks scummy
• - cares about his progression
• - very close to mega, but this is weird in which that I don't know if a scumbuddy actually does this

jabber:
preface this with the fact that jabber is kind of a blind spot for me in this game, skimmed his ISO but I'm not too sure how well I understood

• + very solvy
  • unfortunately this may not count for too much because if jabber were scum he'd be solving alone anyhow with no buddy to work with
• + good analysis
  • feels genuine I guess, someone else could maybe check that
• - Lily was weird, a little sus in hindsight with the no vote D2 and the Cel vote D1

honestly Jabber is kind of a null here.

But I think I'm gonna need to vote. From my scattered ISO, I realized that there wasn't as much basis for my townread as I thought there was.
Scattered, if you're town, please forgive me.
##GOODNIGHT: scattered mind
(i legit need to sleep really soon so no more analysis posts from me, although maybe short messages might come)

I hope my thoughts on both scattered and jabber help a little with the solving.
Go, town!

 

[Ephemera]

ngl i'm hoping jade was able to save someone but I know it's really unlikely.

i just want scum to ignite tonight, and have D5 start with three people instead of the two that would make scum win :U

if that happens nice one jade and also good luck to townies in that theoretical F3 lol

 

[Vom]

sorry i havent been active, but i need to make a vote, and do it quick, so im sorry cel but
##vote: cel

This is the post where Lily votes Cel. Lily's been absent for most of the game, but she says she needs to make a vote, and quick. It sounds like someone pushed/reminded Lily to make a vote, and looking at the vote count the Celever/Ephe wagons were 4-2, so Cel was definitely the most popular wagon This bothers me so much because it's such a mix of things.

Points for scum!Lily/Jabber

• Wording: "I need to make a vote quickly", implying that if she didn't something negative would've happened, pointed out by Mega in the scum chat. People were already being a bit wary of Lily, so not voting might have put her at even more risk.
• Target: Celever was the leading wagon by far and it had gained a ton of momentum, so when Cel flipped town it could've been shrugged off reasonably, especially since Cel's wagon was already too ahead for her to tip the scales anyway.
  
• Apology: Knowing Cel was town and thus unjustly driven to his elimination, she feels bad for him and apologizes. Her vote wasn't even decisive in which one got eliminated, so it couldn't have been an apology for sealing his fate.

Points for town!Lily/Jabber

• Wording: "I need to make a vote quickly", because if she didn't she'd be wasting her way of contributing to the town, and so people might come after her even more. Somewhat less valid than the scum!Lily version because her vote on Cel did not actually matter.
• Target: Mega was already voting Celever, why would he tell his buddy to vote for the same person knowing they'd flip town, especially if said townie already has enough votes anyway?
  
• ??? There's just so much overlap in motives taht it's hard to pick apart.

That being said, why didn't she just not vote?? That's what irks me the most: she was absent for most of D1, then popped in because she needed to make a vote, but didn't make that vote count by voting Celever, who was already gonna get eliminated had she not intervened - not to mention that Mega was already on that wagon.

 

[Vom]

But I think I'm gonna need to vote. From my scattered ISO, I realized that there wasn't as much basis for my townread as I thought there was.
Scattered, if you're town, please forgive me.
##GOODNIGHT: scattered mind

If you won't be around for EoD and aren't sure about your vote, I think it'd be better not to leave it just lying around in case it matters.

 

[Jabberwock]

I can't defend against anything Lily said or did because I don't know her reasoning. I could speculate, but that would be WIFOM.

scattered didn't refute the points on him as well as bb reckons he did; lemme pull out specific quotes.

Skimmed the case on Vom; will read it in greater detail once I've addressed scattered's responses.

 

[Vom]

I can't defend against anything Lily said or did because I don't know her reasoning. I could speculate, but that would be WIFOM.

I guess not, but what do you think of the points I made about her vote?

 

[Ephemera]

If you won't be around for EoD and aren't sure about your vote, I think it'd be better not to leave it just lying around in case it matters.

oh uh
sure, if you want me to

##UNGOODNIGHT: scattered mind

I'm just slightly concerned if Jade/bb can't make it to EoD as well

 

[Vom]

BB said he likely won't make it, dunno about @Jadethepokemontrainer. Jabber and scattered seem to be around so we can probably get something going here.

 

[Vom]

sure, if you want me to

To put it this way, you either must trust me a lot, or are scum trying to not draw attention towards EoD.

 

[Jabberwock]

Explaining to Amici my read on her. And yeah I was expecting a reaction to this from her.

Did you get the reaction you were looking for? If so, why did you bring up your earlygame read in D3? If not, why did you drop it?

notice that I ask Amici a question there- I am still pursuing with what I got as I also try to solve other cases. At that point Lily was another scumread which I explained there.

I'll give you this; that's a legitimate question. At first I thought it was unrelated, but it's not entirely unrelated. It's still not something you pursued any further, though — I'm looking for a bit more than one additional question, a few pages later, without any specific reference to your earlier questions that you say you were still expecting a reaction to.

Got a nice lead on eph from bbninjas. At that point Amici is in the back of my mind because there are other cases to deal with and the day is ending, no body including Amici responded to my case so I decided to leave it to D2. Like I decided to do with Lily and Jade.

Did you leave it to D2? Looking back on my re-read, I don't think you brought it up again after that till D3. I don't buy the whole "there are other cases to deal with;" that would have been valid if you had made any reference to Amici still being a viable elimination after the Celever flip, but instead you pivoted immediately to bbninjas on D2.

Here I explain why I did vote Celever eventually- That passive comment he gave was weird to me and I wanted him to respond to my question. He didn't and I just thought - either this is scum or he doesn't care about the game - which is not my smartest moves since you don't punish someone for not caring about the game by eliminating them- thats the host job. so that was a mistake. I kinda realized that back then and I then Celever brought up Amici out of all people - Amici the one that I scumread but no one commented on so far including herself - I was excited to reply "yes please" and yes I didn't think about how it looks that I agree with the one I am currently eliminating.

Okay but that's problematic. You see how that's problematic, right? You said in #180 that you "completely agree" with Amici's sentiment that lurker elims are "out of the question" and only "on the table" if "we're dead in the water." I cannot see for the life of me how you got from there to voting Celever. Noting that it wasn't the smartest move in hindsight doesn't erase the fact that you did something directly contradictory to your voting ethos on D1.

 

[Scattered mind]

I just really want this day to end and see who was the scum so I can applaud them. Seriously good game.

lily voting Celever- I don’t see it indicative. If town lily could have simply wanted to make a vote. If scum lily would simply want to join the consensus.

 

[Jabberwock]

- Refuted - scattered has shown above that he did explain his reads in the above posts. @scattered mind, follow up question, why didn't you immediately explain your reads in the same post? @Jabberwock You would've read the posts where scattered explains his reads. Why did you not consider these in your ISO?

He explained the Lily one significantly after that post time-wise, the Eph one only in terms of "they're chaotic," and the Vom one not at all.

- Refuted - scattered has progression on Cel - he was MIA for a bit (fair) and Cel is the new wagon when he returns (cool). He oversimplifies it (expected), and after engaging with the thread, he realises that he did oversimplify it (fair). His Cel vote still has flaws (uncooperative =/= scum), but that's no different to the other 5 people on that wagon. This means the vote is very WIFOMy: would town!scattered be caught up in the heat of the moment and vote Cel even if uncooperative =/= scum? I don't know.

scattered said in #180 in no uncertain terms that he "completely agreed" with being against eliminating a lurker. To vote Cel later isn't just having missed the context of the rest of the thread; it goes against his very mindset.

- Refuted - scattered has shown that he consistently questioned / pressured Amici and Fiery throughout Day 1.

Not consistently — he only asked Amici one tangentially related question after that, and did not mention either case again until D3.

- Refuted - is explained by the Amici progression. I can't see scum!scattered forging this link if scattered's "yes please" comment wasn't related to the Amici progression, so I think this is NAI.

That's fair; the "yes please" thing is weird as all hell but I agree that it's NAI.

Points that I don't think are refuted:
- Missing Day 2 Amici / Fiery progression (Why did scattered go for the bbn case instead of pursuing the Amici or Fiery cases?)
- Missing Day 3 Amici progression (Why did scattered quote his Day 1 scumreads in the below post as the reason for voting Amici, instead of voting Amici due to Mega flipping scum or evidence suggesting Amici=scum mentioned in the prior Day 3 discussion?)

Plus this.

 

[Jabberwock]

a) She's town, she townreads me, and thus votes to save me. Simple, easy, explains most things. The "panic-vote" terminology isn't necessarily out of the blue, she's played mafia once before, even though she was the D1 miselim.

b) She's scum, panicked at EoD, voted Cel. When asked for an explanation, buddy mega tells her to explain via panic-voting. This, unfortunately, also makes sense.

[Say, @Jabberwock , I don't suppose you'll tell us which it is if we ask nicely? Serious question.

You mean this @Vom? I know Lily was town, but I don't know her specific motivations. There is literally nothing I can say about anything she's done that you should assign any credence to anyway. As town or as scum, it just comes down to speculation, and either way I would spin her behavior in a townie light.

 

[Jabberwock]

But I think I'm gonna need to vote. From my scattered ISO, I realized that there wasn't as much basis for my townread as I thought there was.

Not only is there not much basis for a townread, there's extravagant basis for a scumread. Caring about his progression is ultimately NAI and the Mega buddying thing is WIFOM, but those aren't the main points on him anyway — did you read my ISO on him?