Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

Status
Not open for further replies.
Day 4 End​
Final Vote Count:
Vom (2)-bbninjas, Jabberwock
scattered mind (1)-Vom
Jabberwock (1)-Scattered mind
Not Voting: Ephemera, Jadethepokemontrainer

Vote History:
#20-Celever voted bbninjas
#23-Amici voted Celever
#27-Ephemera voted Celever
#30-Vom voted Fiery_Lugia
#32-Ephemera voted Vom
#41-Ephemera voted Ephemera
#42-Ephemera voted Vom
#47-Vom voted Ephemera
#51-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#55-Celever voted Ephemera
#81-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#102-bbninjas voted Ephemera
#120-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#123-Ephemera voted MegaPod_781
#139-MegaPod_781 voted Ephemera
#151-Scattered mind voted Amici
#162-Ephemera voted Celever
#244-MegaPod_781 voted Celever
#249-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Celever
#268-scattered mind voted Fiery_Lugia
#276-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#288-scattered mind voted Celever
#297-Celever voted bbninjas
#302-Fiery_Lugia voted Celever
#304-Celever voted Amici
#308-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#320-scattered mind voted bbninjas
#348-bbninjas voted MegaPod_781
#353-Amici voted Ephemera
#357-Vom voted scattered mind
#358-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#390-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#392-Ephemera voted Amici
#395-Vom voted MegaPod_781
#404-Vom voted scattered mind
#405-Ephemera voted Amici
#418-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Amici
#420-bbninjas voted Amici
#453-Jabberwock voted scattered mind
#454-Ephemera voted Jabberwock
#513-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#517-bbninjas voted Vom
#538-Ephemera unvoted bbninjas
#566-scattered mind voted Jabberwock
#567-bbninjas unvoted Vom
#574-bbninjas voted Vom
#587-Ephemera voted Jabberwock
#607-Ephemera voted scattered mind
#613-Ephemera unvoted scattered mind
#624-Vom voted scattered mind
#651-Jabberwock voted Vom

Vom was eliminated. They were:
Town Tree
The day has ended, so you may not post. The Night 4 post and flavor will be up shortly.
 
Night 4 Start​
Another day came with another rush to find the evildoers and some hearty debate:
"How many imposters even are there?"
"Who?" asked the owl.
"The imposters, the spies, the humans who tried to infiltrate this council."
"Who?"
"You know, like the deer and the butterfly."
"Who?"
"THOSE STUPID ROBOT THINGS THAT WE'VE BEEN WORKING TO ELIMINATE FOR DAYS NOW"
"Who?"

At this final "who?", the council lost it. One animal noted that it was probably the same audio just being played by the humans on a loop, and that was all it took for a quick motion to remove the owl and for her to be voted off the council.
Unfortunately, the owl was just a normal owl making normal owl noises. Though she could stick around in future days, the council had suffered another setback.
Night 4 has started and will last 23.25 hours, until August 2nd at 5 PM EST. During this time, the Town Firefighter and remaining Mafia Arsonist may submit their actions.
Do not post in the thread during the night phase.

The following players missed the average of two posts per day standard and should increase their activity level in Day 5 or risk being subbed out:
@Jadethepokemontrainer
 
Day 5 Start​
Another failure meant a long night of sleep for the animals as they laid awake, thoughts turning in their minds. Frigid gusts of wind flew across the clearing, masking any noises from around them, but they wouldn't have been concentrating on their surroundings anyway.
This night gave way to a crisp morning as the animals met again, desperate to cast out the spies among them.

Day 5 has started! It will last for 96 hours, until August 6th at 5 PM EST.
The majority to eliminate for today is 3. If/when someone has 3 votes, the day will end instantly and that player will be eliminated.
As eliminated trees, @Celever, @Amici, and @Vom may not vote, but they may continue to post in-thread.
You all may now post in the thread.
 
LinedCostlyDugong-size_restricted.gif
Well, it looks like scum got spooked that Jade saved someone, and/or they're confident enough we won't catch the last one.
 
Ugghh sorry Vom, I was convinced! I wouldn’t be surprised if you were one of the primed, which would presumably force scum to take another day.

My vote is currently going to Jabber by process of elimination, but I’ll take a look at the end of day votes because I feel some of them are a little weird.
 
Yeah that's what I'm thinking, turns out I was right in my idea lol.

Tbh scattered's last second vote strikes me as odd, because he said in many occasions in D4 that he townread me, and even went on to defend me from your case , only to come back last minute and vote me - this is like his Celever vote all over again, even though he admitted that in retrospect that vote was a mistake.
 
However, Jabber broke the tie between my wagon and scattered's, regardless of if he counted on scattered voting after him or not. scattered's vote didn't end up being counted because it was right after game freeze, but this shouldn't have too much weight because it was posted almost simultaneously.

Jabber's vote is eh for the opposite reason, as they scumread scattered but still switched to my wagon breaking the tie. Funnily enough, if I hadn't gotten Ephemera to remove their scattered vote, scattered would have been eliminated, and assuming he was town we would've lost the game. #allplanned
 
Vom said:
Jabber's vote is eh for the opposite reason, as they scumread scattered but still switched to my wagon breaking the tie.
Click to expand...
I switched because of two main factors, which I think should be obvious from my last post yesterday but I might as well repeat:

Number one — while I did scumread scattered, bb very much did not, for reasons he elucidated in an earlier post but which I hadn't had time by the end of D4 to do more than skim. I'd held a pretty strong townread of bb all game, and so I placed enough stock in whatever he was thinking that I wasn't prepared to follow through with the scattered elimination without further discussion. We just didn't have time for that discussion.

Which brings me to number two — you presented a plan earlier in the Day to cheat our way out of MYLO and gain an extra Day: eliminate a player who we figured had been primed, denying scum the chance to kill enough town to achieve parity during N4. I didn't think when you presented the plan that it would end up being at all useful; there were too many risks (if the player we eliminated was town but not primed, we flat-out lose), and the extra Day just didn't seem worth it. But I remembered the plan, and by the end of D4, the extra Day seemed necessary. As noted, we didn't have enough time to reach a consensus as a town on who the remaining scum was.

Under the parameters of the plan, Vom's elimination was safe, or at least safer than scattered's. Vom had been strongly townread for most of the game because of her being on the Mega wagon, so she was extremely likely to have been primed. (And like, while I didn't agree with Exhibit B and didn't have time to try and understand Exhibit C of bb's plan, Exhibit A had merit. It wasn't enough by itself to build an entire case on, but there was still a decent chance bb was right and Vom would flip scum, and that just made it seem like a win-win scenario. Either Vom flips scum and the game ends, or we get an additional Day to land on the actual remaining scum.)

So that's why I switched my vote. Obviously the first thing I want to do today is re-address scattered, so I'm gonna go back to bb's last rebuttal and see if I can make sense of those points. I also want to go back and look at bb's posts in general; two bb-led miselims back-to-back are enough to make me think it was a mistake to townread him as strongly as I have all game, and I may have missed some potential scumtells that I previously dismissed against his Mega-elim towncred.
 
BONUS ROUND

FIGHT!

...apparently we have one more day lol

I'm kinda mad y'all miselimmed vom but we get one more shot at this.
 
@Jadethepokemontrainer you're the one locktown here with a vote.
Who do you think it could be?

@bbninjas talk to me. I'd love to keep townreading you for the mega wagon but the point you made about Vom needing to bus there could be applied to you even more: you had mounting pressure on you D2, and if mega flipped scum that could lock you town mistakenly.

@Jabberwock I'm not 100% convinced about your vote on the vom wagon, but both you and scattered voted there (despite scattered's vote not counting) near the EoD. It feels like an easy excuse – someone's likely to have been primed, and if we eliminate them, they're either scum or primed town? But... hm. Weird for scum to extend the game but this doesn't lock your alignment in any way.

@scattered mind why'd you try to last-minute switch to Vom?

@Vom what did you make of that EoD flash wagon on you?
 
My issue with scattered's vote is predominantly because it was so last minute. Why was it so last minute? scattered said they were checking the thread to see if their was merit to the Vom case an hour before EOD, why did it take an hour for scattered to return the convo?

@Jabberwock Weren't you concerned that moving your vote from scattered to Vom could have gotten you eliminated?

@Ephemera busting out those quotes! Have to say, it made backreading Day and Day 2 much more bearable rip.

Jabberwock said:
I also want to go back and look at bb's posts in general; two bb-led miselims back-to-back are enough to make me think it was a mistake to townread him as strongly as I have all game, and I may have missed some potential scumtells that I previously dismissed against his Mega-Elim towncred.
Click to expand...
While I agree that you should not just dismiss me as town, the bolded is a bit of a fallacy since "followers" are just as responsible as "leaders" for who gets eliminated; I'm not "more" responsible. No scum has been eliminated in the last two days, and so everyone in this game has been involved in two miselims or unknown-elims back-to-back. And so, by this logic, everyone should be FoS for not eliminating scum yet.
 
bbninjas said:
scattered said they were checking the thread to see if their was merit to the Vom case an hour before EOD, why did it take an hour for scattered to return the convo?
Click to expand...
At least I think this is the case. Should probably check.
 
bbninjas said:
@Ephemera busting out those quotes! Have to say, it made backreading Day and Day 2 much more bearable rip.


While I agree that you should not just dismiss me as town, the bolded is a bit of a fallacy since "followers" are just as responsible as "leaders" for who gets eliminated; I'm not "more" responsible. No scum has been eliminated in the last two days, and so everyone in this game has been involved in two miselims or unknown-elims back-to-back. And so, by this logic, everyone should be FoS for not eliminating scum yet.
Click to expand...

wdym the quotes

I get the argument in theory but it seems too reasonable from bb. Might just be style though, but could bb be treating jabber as town?? Probably nothing.

Gonna have to go over that EoD in detail, it's telling of something for sure.
 
Ephemera said:
wdym the quotes
Click to expand...
I mean one-liners or jokes or something

I get the argument in theory but it seems too reasonable from bb. Might just be style though, but could bb be treating jabber as town?? Probably nothing.
Click to expand...
I'm treating Jabber as neutral rn. I'm actually treating everyone as neutral in my interactions (except for the confo-townies o/c).
 
Ephemera said:
@Jabberwock I'm not 100% convinced about your vote on the vom wagon, but both you and scattered voted there (despite scattered's vote not counting) near the EoD. It feels like an easy excuse – someone's likely to have been primed, and if we eliminate them, they're either scum or primed town? But... hm. Weird for scum to extend the game but this doesn't lock your alignment in any way.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I understand exactly what you mean here, but Vom's scumminess was ambiguous to me; the point of the switch was that if she was town, she was likely primed and as such it would cost us much less to eliminate her than to miselim an unprimed townie; and if she was scum we would win anyway. It was essentially a safe elimination in that if bb was wrong, it still bought us more time to discuss, which was something I felt we badly needed especially in light of the last couple pages of D4.

bbninjas said:
My issue with scattered's vote is predominantly because it was so last minute. Why was it so last minute? scattered said they were checking the thread to see if their was merit to the Vom case an hour before EOD, why did it take an hour for scattered to return the convo?
Click to expand...
I have some thoughts about why this could have been, but they're good questions, so @scattered mind should respond first.

@Jabberwock Weren't you concerned that moving your vote from scattered to Vom could have gotten you eliminated?
Click to expand...
You mean if Vom moved her vote to me and then NP's RNG chose to eliminate me over her? Honestly it didn't occur to me; the votes changed a lot after NP's last vote count and I wasn't able to keep all the changes straight in my head. I guess in hindsight it would've been cause for concern if I'd realized, as I don't think I (or Lily) would've been primed and so that really would have been the miselim-and-lose of MYLO. But I just didn't realize.

While I agree that you should not just dismiss me as town, the bolded is a bit of a fallacy since "followers" are just as responsible as "leaders" for who gets eliminated; I'm not "more" responsible. No scum has been eliminated in the last two days, and so everyone in this game has been involved in two miselims or unknown-elims back-to-back. And so, by this logic, everyone should be FoS for not eliminating scum yet.
Click to expand...
That's fair; leading the town is NAI in this instance. Two misses have just made me realize that I shouldn't have been so quick to count you out of the PoE.
 
Okay so I did start to reread before I was called away for a bit earlier, and this is one of the main things I want to return to around the scattered case (bolding mine):
bbninjas said:
A very important fact about the scattered that I think explains why the Amici case disappeared late Day 2:

scattered questions a few different people in the first 24 hours.
scattered likes Mega's case on bbn.
scattered throws support on the bbn wagon.
bbn asks scattered lots of questions about their support of the bbn wagon
scattered focuses on the bbn wagon instead of the Amici wagon
Click to expand...
scattered never returned to the Amici wagon at all. I went back to check what you were talking about when you said he "questioned a few different people in the first 24 hours" of Day 2, and those were Vom, Celever, and Fiery_Lugia — and of those three, only Lily was one of scattered's scumreads before. Jade he mentions having a case on a couple posts later (though he doesn't question them either), but Amici is totally absent. All this happens before you start asking him lots of questions.

My point in all of this is that "he was so invested in the bb case that he forgot about the others" doesn't hold water. He had the opportunity to pick up the Amici case again at the beginning of D2 — indeed, there were several posts in which he questioned other people, and those would have been excellent points to also resume pursuing what were supposedly his top scumreads from D1 — and he didn't.

This checks a few scumtell boxes:
  • He was only pursuing cases as they were convenient to him, rather than following through on reads from earlier in the game.
  • He has contradicted himself about his progression on his Amici read — in #563 he says "At that point [mid-D1] Amici is in the back of my mind because there are other cases to deal with and the day is ending [...] so I decided to leave it to D2." He did not return to the Amici case until it became relevant again (in D3).
  • Despite dropping the Amici case, when it does become relevant in D3, he references his early read (which has no bearing on the new case). This is a grab for towncred that an actual townie has no reason to make.
@bbninjas I'm actually wondering now why you put "scattered questions a few different people in the first 24 hours" at the top of your rebuttal? Surely you saw that none of those questions was a resumption of the Amici case.

scattered, today, has said in no uncertain terms that he realised that the wagon was not about Cel being a lurker. It was about Cel not cooperating. Different.
Click to expand...
Can you quote where he says this? I can't find anything except an admission of error in #563 that he was wrong to vote Cel — "... not my smartest moves since you don't punish someone for not caring about the game by eliminating them- thats the host job. so that was a mistake" — which, while nice that he acknowledges it was a mistake, doesn't make it not scummy.

===

I also still want to look into bb's old posts, but it's getting late, so I'm off for the night. @scattered mind and @Jadethepokemontrainer should post their thoughts ASAP <3
 
Jabberwock said:
I'm not sure I understand exactly what you mean here, but Vom's scumminess was ambiguous to me; the point of the switch was that if she was town, she was likely primed and as such it would cost us much less to eliminate her than to miselim an unprimed townie; and if she was scum we would win anyway. It was essentially a safe elimination in that if bb was wrong, it still bought us more time to discuss, which was something I felt we badly needed especially in light of the last couple pages of D4.
Click to expand...

fair point.

been a little busy but will definitely get some EoD analysis out in the next 6 hours
 
jade. come on. you're locktown. please come guide us misguided villagers and help root out the last scum

also

scattered frozen :U is this scum??

honestly i'm tempted to just townread bb and jabber for actually contributing this D5 but that's not good but i want to anyway.

EoD analysis incoming
should be easy, it's only 2 pages
(words said before disaster)
 
Vom said:
This is the post where Lily votes Cel. Lily's been absent for most of the game, but she says she needs to make a vote, and quick. It sounds like someone pushed/reminded Lily to make a vote, and looking at the vote count the Celever/Ephe wagons were 4-2, so Cel was definitely the most popular wagon This bothers me so much because it's such a mix of things.

Points for scum!Lily/Jabber
  • Wording: "I need to make a vote quickly", implying that if she didn't something negative would've happened, pointed out by Mega in the scum chat. People were already being a bit wary of Lily, so not voting might have put her at even more risk.
  • Target: Celever was the leading wagon by far and it had gained a ton of momentum, so when Cel flipped town it could've been shrugged off reasonably, especially since Cel's wagon was already too ahead for her to tip the scales anyway.
  • Apology: Knowing Cel was town and thus unjustly driven to his elimination, she feels bad for him and apologizes. Her vote wasn't even decisive in which one got eliminated, so it couldn't have been an apology for sealing his fate.
Points for town!Lily/Jabber
  • Wording: "I need to make a vote quickly", because if she didn't she'd be wasting her way of contributing to the town, and so people might come after her even more. Somewhat less valid than the scum!Lily version because her vote on Cel did not actually matter.
  • Target: Mega was already voting Celever, why would he tell his buddy to vote for the same person knowing they'd flip town, especially if said townie already has enough votes anyway?
  • ??? There's just so much overlap in motives taht it's hard to pick apart.
That being said, why didn't she just not vote?? That's what irks me the most: she was absent for most of D1, then popped in because she needed to make a vote, but didn't make that vote count by voting Celever, who was already gonna get eliminated had she not intervened - not to mention that Mega was already on that wagon.
Click to expand...

Vom said:
If you won't be around for EoD and aren't sure about your vote, I think it'd be better not to leave it just lying around in case it matters.
Click to expand...

js but both of these posts should have locked vom town. Scum doesn't need to put this analysis in super close to deadline, and scum!vom doesn't want me taking my vote off of scattered.

we got another day to discuss by eliminating vom i guess but that was still a risk
It paid off but we couldn't have known that at the time
it felt like an overly complicated play with not too much payoff

kinda want to SR jabber a little from that reasoning i guess, but if scum!Jabber pushed the Vom wagon when she's primed that takes some guts.
is this town then??
i'll take it as NAI until my actual EoD analysis comes.
 
Currently working on a Jabber EoD ISO, but lemme check vote history first though.

Copy-pasting vote history instead of using multi-quote because I currently have Jabber posts in the multiquote.

#453-Jabberwock voted scattered mind
#454-Ephemera voted Jabberwock
#513-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#517-bbninjas voted Vom
#538-Ephemera unvoted bbninjas
#566-scattered mind voted Jabberwock
#567-bbninjas unvoted Vom
#574-bbninjas voted Vom
#587-Ephemera voted Jabberwock
#607-Ephemera voted scattered mind
#613-Ephemera unvoted scattered mind
#624-Vom voted scattered mind
#651-Jabberwock voted Vom

So after I unvote scattered, wagons look like:

scattered mind: jabber
jabberwock: scattered mind
vom: bbninjas

Then vom puts her vote on scattered (@Vom can you tell me how close this was to EoD?) and wagons are

scattered: 2
jabber: 1
vom: 1

then near EoD jabber switches vote (@Jabberwock how close to EoD?) to Vom, which gets her eliminated.

Analysis incoming.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top