Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

[NinjaPenguin]

Day 5: Vote Count 3​

Jabberwock (1)-scattered mind
scattered mind (1)-Jabberwock
Not Voting: bbninjas, Ephemera, Jadethepokemontrainer

If the day ended right now, the elimination would be randomly chosen between Jabberwock and scattered mind. There are 24 hours remaining in the day.

Vote History:

Spoiler

Spoiler: Day 1

#20-Celever voted bbninjas
#23-Amici voted Celever
#27-Ephemera voted Celever
#30-Vom voted Fiery_Lugia
#32-Ephemera voted Vom
#41-Ephemera voted Ephemera
#42-Ephemera voted Vom
#47-Vom voted Ephemera
#51-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#55-Celever voted Ephemera
#81-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#102-bbninjas voted Ephemera
#120-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#123-Ephemera voted MegaPod_781
#139-MegaPod_781 voted Ephemera
#151-Scattered mind voted Amici
#162-Ephemera voted Celever
#244-MegaPod_781 voted Celever
#249-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Celever
#268-scattered mind voted Fiery_Lugia
#276-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#288-scattered mind voted Celever
#297-Celever voted bbninjas
#302-Fiery_Lugia voted Celever
#304-Celever voted Amici

Spoiler: Day 2

#308-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#320-scattered mind voted bbninjas
#348-bbninjas voted MegaPod_781
#353-Amici voted Ephemera
#357-Vom voted scattered mind
#358-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#390-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#392-Ephemera voted Amici
#395-Vom voted MegaPod_781

Spoiler: Day 3

#404-Vom voted scattered mind
#405-Ephemera voted Amici
#418-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Amici
#420-bbninjas voted Amici

Spoiler: Day 4

#453-Jabberwock voted scattered mind
#454-Ephemera voted Jabberwock
#513-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#517-bbninjas voted Vom
#538-Ephemera unvoted bbninjas
#566-scattered mind voted Jabberwock
#567-bbninjas unvoted Vom
#574-bbninjas voted Vom
#587-Ephemera voted Jabberwock
#607-Ephemera voted scattered mind
#613-Ephemera unvoted scattered mind
#624-Vom voted scattered mind
#651-Jabberwock voted Vom

#686-scattered mind voted Jabberwock
#702-Jabberwock voted scattered mind

The following players have not posted in the past 24 hours and are being tagged (this isn't a warning or anything, just a reminder):
@bbninjas
@Celever

 

[Jabberwock]

How do you it’s LYLO?
I can never remember the difference between it and MYLO

Tbh idr either; I meant whichever one is the one where we have to eliminate scum. We cheesed our way into an extra Day while initially thinking D4 was MYLO, but the only way that works again is if Jade managed to prevent a priming. That's not a good assumption to take risks on; ergo, we have to eliminate scum.

Also I think it’s time to sit back @Jabberwock and let the other players read our talk and post their thoughts. I think it would be hard for them to catch up if we keep debating each other and it seems to me like we got most of what we wanted to say. Time for other players to give their input so far.

That's fair; we've both started to repeat ourselves anyway, and while you haven't adequately responded to the points on you, I reckon Vom's right, that that's because there's just no townie explanation. Either way, no point going in circles.

This brings me to another important point, though. @bbninjas @Ephemera @Jadethepokemontrainer there are 24 hours left in the day. Y'all have got to read up. I've summarized the points on scattered as concisely as possible; they're in post #702, and quoted in the post before this one. If y'all go back to there and read the last couple pages, that should give you a pretty good idea of where the case on scattered is at, and if it doesn't, just ask. A full re-read is nice and all, but we don't have time for all of you to keep procrastinating it further, or we won't have time to discuss, and we'll end up exactly where we were at the end of D4. We don't win this game without discussion.

 

[bbninjas]

How is it already 24 hours left... <.>

Anyway, reading up now.

 

[bbninjas]

For people wondering why I unvoted Vom and then revoted shortly afterwards; it's because I meant to have unvoted 24 hours before then (because Vom's "waiting for a bus" explanation made sense, so it was thoroughly NAI). I decided to just go and ISO Vom x Mega quickly to check how they interacted with each other, and then realised very soon after that they hardly ever interacted with each other at all! So I dug deeper and built a case.

I'm lost.

Seriously - I have no idea who's the scum here.

Basically this is where I am right now. Jabber > scattered imo since scattered has town-buddying interactions with Mega (imo), and Jabber (obviously) has no interactions. I think Jabber's solving is NAI atm, and there is that Fiery coaching quote that makes Jabber look suss.

@bbninjas I'm actually wondering now why you put "scattered questions a few different people in the first 24 hours" at the top of your rebuttal? Surely you saw that none of those questions was a resumption of the Amici case.

Questioned is definitely the wrong word; I was meaning more "discussed". There was two quotes that he commented on in the early day from either Celever or Vom (?) that discussed the Amici read to some extent, iirc. Hence scattered was interested in those cases, but when the bbn cases became forefront and when I started pressuring scattered more about the bbn case, scattered became more focused on the bbn case. Hence why I say this progression makes sense and thus is NAI.

The issue is that many of the things you've done aren't just oops-coincidentally-anti-town, they also betray a scummy mindset.

• You kept your reads back for the sole reason of trying to construct an independent narrative and then later fitting it to the reality of the thread. Only scum have any need to construct an independent narrative.
• The Celever vote went against beliefs you earlier professed to hold about eliminating lurkers on D1 (in post #180). After that, only scum would say "Either he is scum or he doesn't care about this game. Either works" to justify Celever's elimination.
• Dropping the Amici case in mid-D1 despite her not answering your questions is further indication of malleable beliefs and a willingness to switch to whatever elimination is the most feasible, but the real kicker here is how you've talked about it since then. Pointing out your initial Amici read in #438 is not something town would do because you hadn't pursued it since then and the initial read had no relevance in D3 anyway, but is something scum would do to try and gain some superfluous towncred.

I've said all this before and I have no idea why everybody keeps skipping over it. These aren't WIFOMy, edge-case scenario points; there's legitimately no town explanation that I can see for them. There's always a possibility that I'm wrong — and I still want to go back and check bb just because I feel like having townread him for so long has given me a really warped perception of his posts — but having already gone back to check his most recent rebuttal of the case on you, I'm not seeing much to clear you of the points above.

##VOTE: scattered mind

1. I think this is semantics - I'm reading "independent" as "unbiased" or "collated" which is a townie mindset.
2. Scattered has explained why he changed his vote: originally he thought it was an elim-a-lurker, and then he realised it was an elim-someone-who-is-scummy-because-they-are-acting-against-the-town-and-being-cagey. I also disagree that only scum would say the "either or" statement. In fact, this was the sentiment of nearly everyone at the time - and I think some other people made this reason explicit (Amici maybe?).
3. This a good point and it's the most persuasive of the three. @scattered mind's explanation at #706 doesn't explain why he scattered didn't ask additional questions / make additional points in that #438 vote post.

I can understand IRL stuff; ik it was your birthday near the beginning of D2 (I wasn't in the game at the time, so /late but happy birthday) — but you made like four posts there in which you asked Vom, Lily, and Celever one question each and then parked your vote on bb. Do you actually expect me to believe that you decided to pursue Lily and Jade and come back to Amici later, when you asked Lily one question, Jade zero questions, and then voted a different player entirely?

I would appreciate @scattered mind's response to this.
I also think scattered hasn't given a satisfactory explanation as to why he didn't elaborate on the Day 1 read that he quoted in his Day 3 post (#438) when he voted Amici.

Writing thoughts as I read -

One thing I do wonder in regards to the Scattered case is why he would bring attention to himself saying that he was the first person to bring suspicion to Amici, if he is scum. Like, if he is scum he knows she was going to flip town, so why would he point to the fact that he was the one to introduce the Amici case?

This is an extremely good point. Jabber suggests scattered pointed this out to get towncred, but how exactly is scattered supposed to get towncred by pushing the wagon of a player who will flip town?

Unfortunately both scum!jabber and scum!scattered worlds are plausible. However, I'm gonna make one more wall to explain which is the more likely one.

This whole post from Eph was very good, and I (unfortunately) agree with this conclusion with respect to the switches to Vom.

 

[bbninjas]

People say that Jabber is town because they're doing a good job at solving. As it turns out, everyone here is solving, and since we don't know who's correct with their solving, I think it's fairly obvious that this is NAI. So I'm not going to clear Jabber based on solving. Part of why this is NAI is because nearly everyone has had reasons to suggest that their scum, so it would be easy for scum to try scumhunting a town.

I also don't think Jabber has any particularly scummy points on him which makes this even more difficult. I think @scattered mind should try to provide (or repost?) some points for Jabber's scumminess, because at this point it seems to be purely process of elimination from scattered's perspective.

I think the Fiery point is the best reason to find Jabber scum. It doesn't make sense for Fiery to say "panic-vote" from a new town perspective.

@ Someone could you check the thread to see if anyone mentioned "panic-voting" before Fiery?

 

[Jabberwock]

Questioned is definitely the wrong word; I was meaning more "discussed". There was two quotes that he commented on in the early day from either Celever or Vom (?) that discussed the Amici read to some extent, iirc. Hence scattered was interested in those cases, but when the bbn cases became forefront and when I started pressuring scattered more about the bbn case, scattered became more focused on the bbn case. Hence why I say this progression makes sense and thus is NAI.

You mean scattered's post #319? Read it again. At the end of D1 scattered said "Yes please" to Celever suggesting an Amici elim, and then at the beginning of D2 he asked Celever why he (Cel) voted Amici. I don't see how it makes sense at all in scattered's Amici progression.

1. I think this is semantics - I'm reading "independent" as "unbiased" or "collated" which is a townie mindset.

That's fair — I keep struggling to explain what I mean and I think ultimately I may just have taken connotations out of scattered's words that weren't really there. @Jadethepokemontrainer @Ephemera @Vom I'd be curious to hear how you read the original post and if what I got from it makes any sense, and if not, then that's legit and I'll drop it.

2. Scattered has explained why he changed his vote: originally he thought it was an elim-a-lurker, and then he realised it was an elim-someone-who-is-scummy-because-they-are-acting-against-the-town-and-being-cagey. I also disagree that only scum would say the "either or" statement. In fact, this was the sentiment of nearly everyone at the time - and I think some other people made this reason explicit (Amici maybe?).

Again, can you quote where scattered says this? I can't remember him saying anything about his progression on the Celever case except that he realizes it was a mistake in light of how he previously condemned elim-a-lurker wagons.

You've actually got a legitimate point about Amici there, though. I went back to check (~#254) and she does in fact essentially advocate elim-a-lurker with regard to Celever. She also said in the earlygame that elim-a-lurker was out of the question; that was even the post that made scattered say it too. So that's a good point in that it shows that town can also change their beliefs in this way.

This is an extremely good point. Jabber suggests scattered pointed this out to get towncred, but how exactly is scattered supposed to get towncred by pushing the wagon of a player who will flip town?

All wagons scum push, except buses, flip town. However, since town don't know the difference before a flip, scum get towncred when they appear to contribute original material to a case on a player commonly expected to flip scum. Once they flip town, if it ever comes up again, scum can be like "hey, we all thought they were scum," and then point to their original material and say "see how I was solving and helping your case?" If you look at it too far, it breaks down into WIFOM, but on a surface level most people would just accept it — after all, they were agreeing with them — and move on.

And granted, adding original material to a case is obviously something town do too, just by nature of the process of scumhunting. The difference is that town has no reason to contribute something as superfluous as "hey remember my D1 vote?" to do it.

@ Someone could you check the thread to see if anyone mentioned "panic-voting" before Fiery?

I can check, but I've noted before and I'll note again that there are plenty of reasons why Lily would say panic-voting there. From what other people have said, she's played at least one other game on this site, and it's also extremely common for new players to browse old mafia threads to get a better understanding of the game. I also don't think "panic-X" is solely a mafia term; idk if this was the case in Australia, but in the US people were talking a lot about "panic-buying" resources a few months ago, in the early stages of the pandemic. I'm sure there are other examples, too. Point being, the term could have come up in any number of places.

 

[Ephemera]

People say that Jabber is town because they're doing a good job at solving. As it turns out, everyone here is solving, and since we don't know who's correct with their solving, I think it's fairly obvious that this is NAI. So I'm not going to clear Jabber based on solving. Part of why this is NAI is because nearly everyone has had reasons to suggest that their scum, so it would be easy for scum to try scumhunting a town.

I also don't think Jabber has any particularly scummy points on him which makes this even more difficult. I think @scattered mind should try to provide (or repost?) some points for Jabber's scumminess, because at this point it seems to be purely process of elimination from scattered's perspective.

I think the Fiery point is the best reason to find Jabber scum. It doesn't make sense for Fiery to say "panic-vote" from a new town perspective.

@ Someone could you check the thread to see if anyone mentioned "panic-voting" before Fiery?

hm
What are the reasons for scattered town? Right now I'm leaning towards scattered scum myself, won't vote on the 1% chance that bb is scum and will hammer, plus my wall isn't ready yet (could also find jabber scummier upon making the wall idk).

@Jadethepokemontrainer if it comes to it, I think your vote may be the tiebreaker. Check up on the thread please, and make sure you know where to stand.

Wall is now coming. I have time, motivation, and, most importantly, intense music to listen to while i make it :U

if bb is scum, he's played one of the best scumgames I've seen. Doubt it though.

Here we go.

 

[Ephemera]

argh I keep tinfoiling on scum!bb, even when I'm the one who did all the analysis to prove him town.

But why would scum!bb defend scattered in this way dfjkaldsfakasd he literally has no buddies. Is scattered primed then???

in a scum!bb world, jade is 100% primed by now. Vom was also primed. This leaves me/jabber/scattered to have 2 primes among us (unless amici was primed which is unlikely).

...scum just needs to survive today, they don't care who gets eliminated as long as it's not them. Thus scum!bb defending scattered in this vague way is not a scumtell since a) they're obviously not buddies and b) bb as scum shouldn't care who gets eliminated. Thus he'd probably make more pushes rather than defenses.

Much ado about tinfoil. Ugh.

Back to my skim, will put thoughts in 20 minutes.

 

[Ephemera]

Post #550 is where it starts, but the follow-up is important; a lot of the points in #550 have since been refuted or satisfactorily explained. Post #702 is the most recent summary of the points on scattered:

"The issue is that many of the things you've done aren't just oops-coincidentally-anti-town, they also betray a scummy mindset.
You kept your reads back for the sole reason of trying to construct an independent narrative and then later fitting it to the reality of the thread. Only scum have any need to construct an independent narrative.
The Celever vote went against beliefs you earlier professed to hold about eliminating lurkers on D1 (in post #180). After that, only scum would say "Either he is scum or he doesn't care about this game. Either works" to justify Celever's elimination.
Dropping the Amici case in mid-D1 despite her not answering your questions is further indication of malleable beliefs and a willingness to switch to whatever elimination is the most feasible, but the real kicker here is how you've talked about it since then. Pointing out your initial Amici read in #438 is not something town would do because you hadn't pursued it since then and the initial read had no relevance in D3 anyway, but is something scum would do to try and gain some superfluous towncred."

c/p'd the case summary because it's relevant.

I find this argument very convincing, ngl. Scattered cared quite a bit about his progression and flow of ideas over the past few days – but honestly that doesn't matter so much, since it's often the towns who jump around and are illogical. Scum trying to look townie can have wrong pushes, but quite often like to keep things consistent.

The other thing is that scum!Jabber only votes Vom if scattered is primed. Would he be primed?

Likely N1 target: I'm gonna guess bb/vom/jade, maybe me?. There are enough people in that pool to firefighter dodge without priming scattered. Scattered is a possible prime but I don't think Mega/Lily shoot there first.

Likely N2 target: even more likely Vom/Jade/bb, the wagon on mega. Scattered could have been primed by an isolated Lily, but I think she'd go for someone who just eliminated her buddy, or someone she townreads, like me/jade.

Likely N3 target: not scattered. We all knew scattered/Jabber were the most likely targets the next day, and scum!Jabber doesn't prime his only way out.

Thus scum!Jabber voting Vom at... iirc 3 minutes? to deadline doesn't make much sense as scum. Sure, scum!Jabber votes Vom that day, but I believe he'd make his progression look better on the plan to eliminate someone who is almost definitely primed if not scum – Jabber's quick switch to Vom at EoD gives barely any towncred for a scum member – which funnily enough makes me townread him.

Heavily leaning scattered here.

 

[Scattered mind]

I reread and I can’t find anything I didn’t answer already in one way or another.

jabber is the only option by PoE but it also makes sense- as there is nothing townie you can say about him that you can’t say about all the players now. His vote on vom instead of me was meant to make sure I will be the elimination option of today. Jabber probably kept seeking throughout last day who is the scummier looking- vom or me and switched you vom because he realized it is me. Again because he knew it wasn’t MYLO, while others thought it could be. Today he posted about how today is mylo- proving he had it in his mind.

I am tired of repeating things although I know it’s important to make sure everyone understand them. Still, I am going to let you guys just decide because I am also not that good with making long detailed posts like jabber/bb and much less in debate like withjabber- so although I tried to explain myself I still keep seeing his ways of twisting what I say and explaining my actions again in a scummy way. I can’t respond further without saying basically the same so please- just vote.

 

[Ephemera]

FINAL ANALYSIS POSTS
Part 1
Notable Occurrences, EoD4

-scattered was barely there at EoD. bb hard defended scattered.
-jabber made quite a few solving posts. NAI but let's go through them.

Did you get the reaction you were looking for? If so, why did you bring up your earlygame read in D3? If not, why did you drop it?


I'll give you this; that's a legitimate question. At first I thought it was unrelated, but it's not entirely unrelated. It's still not something you pursued any further, though — I'm looking for a bit more than one additional question, a few pages later, without any specific reference to your earlier questions that you say you were still expecting a reaction to.


Did you leave it to D2? Looking back on my re-read, I don't think you brought it up again after that till D3. I don't buy the whole "there are other cases to deal with;" that would have been valid if you had made any reference to Amici still being a viable elimination after the Celever flip, but instead you pivoted immediately to bbninjas on D2.


Okay but that's problematic. You see how that's problematic, right? You said in #180 that you "completely agree" with Amici's sentiment that lurker elims are "out of the question" and only "on the table" if "we're dead in the water." I cannot see for the life of me how you got from there to voting Celever. Noting that it wasn't the smartest move in hindsight doesn't erase the fact that you did something directly contradictory to your voting ethos on D1.

Jabber's thoughts on scattered and his amici case. These points are very valid – Scattered cared a lot about how he'd voted amici. Will discuss this in Part 3.

He explained the Lily one significantly after that post time-wise, the Eph one only in terms of "they're chaotic," and the Vom one not at all.

scattered said in #180 in no uncertain terms that he "completely agreed" with being against eliminating a lurker. To vote Cel later isn't just having missed the context of the rest of the thread; it goes against his very mindset.

Not consistently — he only asked Amici one tangentially related question after that, and did not mention either case again until D3.

That's fair; the "yes please" thing is weird as all hell but I agree that it's NAI.

Plus this.

More points against Scattered, this one about the Cel wagon.

Not only is there not much basis for a townread, there's extravagant basis for a scumread. Caring about his progression is ultimately NAI and the Mega buddying thing is WIFOM, but those aren't the main points on him anyway — did you read my ISO on him?

I like this post from jabber. We've established that scum!Jabber would have just voted scattered yesterday had scattered not been primed, so his casing of scattered looks very good.

Fair enough; quoting the posts below for reference.


The main points are that the use of "need," the apology to Celever, and the later use of "panic-vote"?

New players in general often feel like they "need" to cast a vote just because it's such an integral part of this game and they feel like if they aren't voting, they aren't really playing. @Vom you questioned at some point why she wouldn't just /not vote/? I genuinely don't think it had occurred to her that not voting was a legitimate option.

The name of the game — which, remember, we consistently tell new players to get them active on D1 — is essentially "cast a vote for whoever you think is the scummiest player." bb had already told her something to this effect like five times on D1 of this game. It's hardly surprising that she felt the need to cast a vote with time running out in the Day. Yeah her reasoning was flawed ("he already had the most number of votes") but even that makes sense from a new town standpoint; she trusted the majority.

The apology to Celever is a little weird, but new town does it as much as new scum. Ephemera even apologized to scattered mind for voting him as recently as #607.

"Panic-vote," I honestly have no idea. Idk Lily's mafia history, but somebody mentioned she had played at least one game before, and she was probably spectating at least one game prior to that. (I say this because that's how most new players end up joining mafia.) I think it's reasonable to expect that she saw the term somewhere else before. Either way I don't see how using a mafia slang term is indicative of alignment. You can reckon Mega told her to use it as a defense in the scumchat, but we've already established that scumchat coaching rarely happens in PB mafia.

Self-defense, or rather defense of Lily. The point about scumchat coaching – I feel it could be almost referencing scumchat though??? Probably nothing but will note this for part 3.

Ultimately I'm just not convinced that Vom-as-scum would have bussed Mega there, and so I still assign her enough towncred that Exhibit A doesn't really stack up to it enough to convict her. I know you try to explain that away in Exhibit C, but there just is not time enough left in the Day for me to try and parse the whole extent of that part of the post.

Jabber townreading Vom. This was before EoD, and he doubts the case on Vom.

At EoD, though...

We just don't have time to talk through this. @Vom are you still convinced you've been primed? People have townread you for long enough this game that I'd be willing to bet you have been, if you're not scum. If so then you don't count toward MYLO, and if bb's right then the game's over anyway.

Jabber is desperate, there's no time. He puts faith in bb's case, votes Vom because she's either scum or primed. I think this comes from town more, unless scattered is primed.

##UNVOTE
##VOTE:Vom

Jabber unvoting doesn't make sense as scum at all at this point.

If this is from scum!scattered, it's an attempt to look towny when the Jabber wagon doesn't take off.
If this is town!scattered, it's joining what seems to be, from his perspective, the only possible option left.
Will check this in Part 3 I guess.

Part 2 will be D5, and Part 3 will be final analysis and thoughts, along with my vote.

Here we go.

 

[Ephemera]

I like this post from jabber. We've established that scum!Jabber would have just voted scattered yesterday had scattered not been primed, so his casing of scattered looks very good.

to clarify: had scattered not been primed in a scum!Jabber world, the game would be over by now, with scattered being the D4 miselim. As such, if jabber is scum, scattered is primed, and thus casing scattered as scum wouldn't make sense. Thus I like the post.

 

[Ephemera]

FINAL ANALYSIS POSTSPart 2Jabber v Scattered, D5

This bit is going to be in chunks, since I don't want to keep multiquoting and forgetting context. Thus the next few posts will be the "wall" that is part 2.

 

[Ephemera]

oh my god it didn't format correctly

my OCD is triggered.

i'll try that one more time.

nooooo my grand, theatric, final case is ruined by bad formatting...

 

[Ephemera]

FINAL ANALYSIS POSTS
Part 2
Jabber v Scattered, D5

This part will be split post by post, each headed as 2.1, 2.2, etc etc. Thus Part 2 will still be a wall, but built in separate chunks.

 

[Ephemera]

2.1

Jabber's Start of Day

I switched because of two main factors, which I think should be obvious from my last post yesterday but I might as well repeat:

Number one — while I did scumread scattered, bb very much did not, for reasons he elucidated in an earlier post but which I hadn't had time by the end of D4 to do more than skim. I'd held a pretty strong townread of bb all game, and so I placed enough stock in whatever he was thinking that I wasn't prepared to follow through with the scattered elimination without further discussion. We just didn't have time for that discussion.

Which brings me to number two — you presented a plan earlier in the Day to cheat our way out of MYLO and gain an extra Day: eliminate a player who we figured had been primed, denying scum the chance to kill enough town to achieve parity during N4. I didn't think when you presented the plan that it would end up being at all useful; there were too many risks (if the player we eliminated was town but not primed, we flat-out lose), and the extra Day just didn't seem worth it. But I remembered the plan, and by the end of D4, the extra Day seemed necessary. As noted, we didn't have enough time to reach a consensus as a town on who the remaining scum was.

Under the parameters of the plan, Vom's elimination was safe, or at least safer than scattered's. Vom had been strongly townread for most of the game because of her being on the Mega wagon, so she was extremely likely to have been primed. (And like, while I didn't agree with Exhibit B and didn't have time to try and understand Exhibit C of bb's plan, Exhibit A had merit. It wasn't enough by itself to build an entire case on, but there was still a decent chance bb was right and Vom would flip scum, and that just made it seem like a win-win scenario. Either Vom flips scum and the game ends, or we get an additional Day to land on the actual remaining scum.)

So that's why I switched my vote. Obviously the first thing I want to do today is re-address scattered, so I'm gonna go back to bb's last rebuttal and see if I can make sense of those points. I also want to go back and look at bb's posts in general; two bb-led miselims back-to-back are enough to make me think it was a mistake to townread him as strongly as I have all game, and I may have missed some potential scumtells that I previously dismissed against his Mega-elim towncred.

I simultaneously like this post and dislike it. On the one hand, it explains Jabber's EoD thought process pretty perfectly. On the other hand, it feels a little constructed, as well as somewhat contradictory – Jabber had cased scattered quite a bit. I do understand the mindset of switching to Vom, but why would Jabber not be able to follow through on the case he'd made for a significant portion of the day?

I'm not sure I understand exactly what you mean here, but Vom's scumminess was ambiguous to me; the point of the switch was that if she was town, she was likely primed and as such it would cost us much less to eliminate her than to miselim an unprimed townie; and if she was scum we would win anyway. It was essentially a safe elimination in that if bb was wrong, it still bought us more time to discuss, which was something I felt we badly needed especially in light of the last couple pages of D4.


I have some thoughts about why this could have been, but they're good questions, so @scattered mind should respond first.


You mean if Vom moved her vote to me and then NP's RNG chose to eliminate me over her? Honestly it didn't occur to me; the votes changed a lot after NP's last vote count and I wasn't able to keep all the changes straight in my head. I guess in hindsight it would've been cause for concern if I'd realized, as I don't think I (or Lily) would've been primed and so that really would have been the miselim-and-lose of MYLO. But I just didn't realize.


That's fair; leading the town is NAI in this instance. Two misses have just made me realize that I shouldn't have been so quick to count you out of the PoE.

1. I get this thought. It's not alignment indicative though.
2. What are your thoughts on it now, Jabber? Please share now that EoD is upon us.
3. This makes scattered's vote look a little better now, ngl. As town, he could have tried to vote Vom to prevent RNG.
4. Makes sense.

Okay so I did start to reread before I was called away for a bit earlier, and this is one of the main things I want to return to around the scattered case (bolding mine):

scattered never returned to the Amici wagon at all. I went back to check what you were talking about when you said he "questioned a few different people in the first 24 hours" of Day 2, and those were Vom, Celever, and Fiery_Lugia — and of those three, only Lily was one of scattered's scumreads before. Jade he mentions having a case on a couple posts later (though he doesn't question them either), but Amici is totally absent. All this happens before you start asking him lots of questions.

My point in all of this is that "he was so invested in the bb case that he forgot about the others" doesn't hold water. He had the opportunity to pick up the Amici case again at the beginning of D2 — indeed, there were several posts in which he questioned other people, and those would have been excellent points to also resume pursuing what were supposedly his top scumreads from D1 — and he didn't.

This checks a few scumtell boxes:

• He was only pursuing cases as they were convenient to him, rather than following through on reads from earlier in the game.
• He has contradicted himself about his progression on his Amici read — in #563 he says "At that point [mid-D1] Amici is in the back of my mind because there are other cases to deal with and the day is ending [...] so I decided to leave it to D2." He did not return to the Amici case until it became relevant again (in D3).
• Despite dropping the Amici case, when it does become relevant in D3, he references his early read (which has no bearing on the new case). This is a grab for towncred that an actual townie has no reason to make.

@bbninjas I'm actually wondering now why you put "scattered questions a few different people in the first 24 hours" at the top of your rebuttal? Surely you saw that none of those questions was a resumption of the Amici case.


Can you quote where he says this? I can't find anything except an admission of error in #563 that he was wrong to vote Cel — "... not my smartest moves since you don't punish someone for not caring about the game by eliminating them- thats the host job. so that was a mistake" — which, while nice that he acknowledges it was a mistake, doesn't make it not scummy.

===

I also still want to look into bb's old posts, but it's getting late, so I'm off for the night. @scattered mind and @Jadethepokemontrainer should post their thoughts ASAP <3

This post makes quite a lot of sense, especially the bolded.

Some postscript notes, as well as thoughts.
a) Jabber entered thread quickly, while scattered took longer. This could be indicative of timezones, but also Jabber's case is more prepared, while Scattered's (iirc) was a little more haphazard. Will consider this in Part 3.
b) Jade, what do you think? We have one more day, jabber/scattered are crossvoting, bb's leaning Jabber, and I'm leaning scattered. It is likely that we will need you to tiebreak.

 

[Ephemera]

2.2

Scattered's Start of Day

It’s been barely 24 hours! Don’t write me as frozen. Going to post when I get the time today.

NAI. At least scattered wasn't frozen i guess.

I'm lost.

Seriously - I have no idea who's the scum here. I don't think scumJabber would have any reason to vote Vom instead of me and so it's just unlikely that he is scum. I switched to Vom because quite frankly - No body is likely to be scum so I just had to trust the one big case even though it had holes in it. Because as it seems right now- everyone has a lot of townie points going for them.

bbninjas is the one who made the case on Mega - talked a lot about the possible plan of vom to bus - maybe he did the exact thing?
Ephemera voted Mega early on and throughout the game had a lot of townie and scummy points by others. Did he vote Mega early to get the towncred later on?

Jabberwock changed the vote on me to vom. Did he do that knowing that flipping me as town will lead him to be the only suspect? Actually that makes a lot of sense because the town points that I gave him back then were because I was sure that was MYLO. If he is scum he knew that it is not.

As for the case on me- Basically you need to stop judge me as a perfect townie player or scum - there is the other option - a town player that screw up sometimes or doesn't have the time to post things in the right time you expected. I think I commented on everything you guys told me but I will read back if there are any other questions.

##VOTE:Jabber

hm. Weird. Did scattered not know that if we miselimmed someone not primed there we lose? Is this a derpclear????
The reasoning on jabber knowing it wasn't MYLO – I'm almost certain it was. Amici was likely not primed. As such I kinda don't see the reasoning there as valid.
Next: despite saying that I have had a lot of townie and scummy points, scattered has not considered the fact that I could be scum. While he's right, he's also only considering Jabber. hmmmm.

Explained above.



Umm.. Life? I do try to focus on my game when I play, trust me, but sometimes I need to do other things. Like when my mom calls and thinks it would be great to talk on the phone for 30 minutes.

IRL stuff. I get you completely. I still am sus of you though for other reasons.

Knowing as scum that the game will not end, he preferred to switch to you to leave me for the next day and finish the town. Voting me at that time would have mean leaving him as the only valid option following the next day.

Hm. If D4 wasn't MYLO, this would make sense. but if jabber were scum the only way for it not to be MYLO is if amici were primed. I can't see this world being true.

You did not need bbninjas vote to eliminate me. bbninjas would have realized when we were close to a tie and would have switched to me by EoD. Why did choose to trust his case over your own? even if you think bbninjas as townie as hell in your pov you are the towniest as town and should trust your insticts first, especially when you say yourself that you didn't understand the case on vom fully.

hm. makes sense though.

Because I was sure that it was MYLO and that meant Jabber move was impossible to explain as scum- which meant he was locktown for me leaving you as the other wagon close to EoD.

also makes sense

Me now- knowing that the previous day was not MYLO
me then- Sure that that day was MYLO

I don't know how to explain more vom.

weird post, idgi.

But I will add to that in relation to the game itself- the scum is indeed smart for focusing on priming instead of killing - leaving as many players alive to hide among them throughout the game. If I understood the mechanic correctly- that is an interesting strategy.

Scattered likes complimenting the scumteam. NAI but... eh. I think scum's played a pretty good game whoever they are, but I don't really mention it much. Probably nothing though.

(listening to Professor Layton as you solve is fun. listening to the Divine Beast soundtracks is stressful, but fuels determination. fun.)
Only a couple more parts to go. I may take a little longer for those, since i have dinner and IRL stuff. They are coming.

 

[Ephemera]

Two more posts to go: 2.3 (Jabber v Scattered argument), and Part 3: thoughts

I'm gonna be out for a little bit due to dinner and IRL commitments, but will be back with a vote.

Apologies for the walls
i thought i was done with walls, but walls weren't done with me

 

[Ephemera]

Not part 2.3 or part 3, but what does everyone else think?

@Jadethepokemontrainer @bbninjas @scattered mind @Jabberwock

 

[Scattered mind]

he's also only considering Jabber. hmmmm.

Again. I already explained why I read jabber as scum and everyone else town. Seriously I am done repeating myself.