Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

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scattered mind said:
I'm lost.

Seriously - I have no idea who's the scum here. I don't think scumJabber would have any reason to vote Vom instead of me and so it's just unlikely that he is scum. I switched to Vom because quite frankly - No body is likely to be scum so I just had to trust the one big case even though it had holes in it. Because as it seems right now- everyone has a lot of townie points going for them.

bbninjas is the one who made the case on Mega - talked a lot about the possible plan of vom to bus - maybe he did the exact thing?
Ephemera voted Mega early on and throughout the game had a lot of townie and scummy points by others. Did he vote Mega early to get the towncred later on?

Jabberwock changed the vote on me to vom. Did he do that knowing that flipping me as town will lead him to be the only suspect? Actually that makes a lot of sense because the town points that I gave him back then were because I was sure that was MYLO. If he is scum he knew that it is not.

As for the case on me- Basically you need to stop judge me as a perfect townie player or scum - there is the other option - a town player that screw up sometimes or doesn't have the time to post things in the right time you expected. I think I commented on everything you guys told me but I will read back if there are any other questions.

##VOTE:Jabber
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@Ephemera
 
Eph I'm having a little difficulty following your analyses or your conclusions (what are they?) so it's a bit hard to comment.

@scattered mind Isn't being very helpful right now (yes you have to repeat yourself many many many times if you're in the spotlight), and he isn't offering much points to suggest that Jabber is scum. Currently my vote is on scattered.

Specifically, I'd like a response to the mentioned points in #744, which I ask for a response specifically because I don't feel scattered has satisfactorily responded to them.

scattered mind said:
I reread and I can’t find anything I didn’t answer already in one way or another.

jabber is the only option by PoE but it also makes sense- as there is nothing townie you can say about him that you can’t say about all the players now. His vote on vom instead of me was meant to make sure I will be the elimination option of today. Jabber probably kept seeking throughout last day who is the scummier looking- vom or me and switched you vom because he realized it is me. Again because he knew it wasn’t MYLO, while others thought it could be. Today he posted about how today is mylo- proving he had it in his mind.

I am tired of repeating things although I know it’s important to make sure everyone understand them. Still, I am going to let you guys just decide because I am also not that good with making long detailed posts like jabber/bb and much less in debate like withjabber- so although I tried to explain myself I still keep seeing his ways of twisting what I say and explaining my actions again in a scummy way. I can’t respond further without saying basically the same so please- just vote.
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Reasons that scattered finds Jabber scum:
- Jabber is no townier than the rest of us
- Jabber voted Vom so that the scattered wagon could exist Day 5
- Jabber was flip-flopping (?) or pressuring both scattered and Vom
- Jabber did the above points with (scum) knowledge that it was MYLO

I don't find any of these things convincing; my refutes:
- Jabber is also no scummier than the rest of us, so this is NAI.
- This point suggests that scum!Jabber was pushing scattered as a ploy, and what he really wanted is to get Vom eliminated. But this doesn't make sense, firstly because scattered wasn't the leading wagon at this point, so Jabber moving his vote really didn't matter. Secondly, Jabber seemingly pushed scattered on Day 4 with intent to eliminate - and if it wasn't for me pushing hard on Vom, Jabber wouldn't have been able to vote for Vom. So basically, scattered is saying that Jabber got lucky that I pushed Vom so that scum!Jabber would have an option in Day 5 (huh?)
- I really don't think this is true. Jabber had healthy questioning and suspicions of Vom, but it wasn't until EoD that Jabber seriously pressured or considered Vom as a wagon.
- Because the above points are moot, this point is pretty moot.
 
Imma sleep now, I should be back before EoD cause I need to be at work on the EoD deadline. So yeah.
 
True, my analysis is incomplete and honestly there's not much there yet.

I will now rectify that.

PART 2.3
Jabber v Scattered

...is coming because I still need to quote everything lol
 
2.3

Scattered v Jabber

at this point I believe I'm just confbiasing my way to a scattered vote.
I'll have to make sure I'm not confbiased, but to be honest I think it has to be scattered.
Whoever scum is, massive props. I think it's scattered, but still massive props to whoever it is.

Jabberwock said:
I've explained the thought process behind my vote switch three times now. If you missed it, it's in posts #649, #668, and #675.


The issue is that many of the things you've done aren't just oops-coincidentally-anti-town, they also betray a scummy mindset.
  • You kept your reads back for the sole reason of trying to construct an independent narrative and then later fitting it to the reality of the thread. Only scum have any need to construct an independent narrative.
  • The Celever vote went against beliefs you earlier professed to hold about eliminating lurkers on D1 (in post #180). After that, only scum would say "Either he is scum or he doesn't care about this game. Either works" to justify Celever's elimination.
  • Dropping the Amici case in mid-D1 despite her not answering your questions is further indication of malleable beliefs and a willingness to switch to whatever elimination is the most feasible, but the real kicker here is how you've talked about it since then. Pointing out your initial Amici read in #438 is not something town would do because you hadn't pursued it since then and the initial read had no relevance in D3 anyway, but is something scum would do to try and gain some superfluous towncred.
I've said all this before and I have no idea why everybody keeps skipping over it. These aren't WIFOMy, edge-case scenario points; there's legitimately no town explanation that I can see for them. There's always a possibility that I'm wrong — and I still want to go back and check bb just because I feel like having townread him for so long has given me a really warped perception of his posts — but having already gone back to check his most recent rebuttal of the case on you, I'm not seeing much to clear you of the points above.
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Continued case on scattered. Valid points, but at this point I really shouldn't be counting this as a towntell because scattered/jabber have to tunnel each other.

scattered mind said:
I already explained that I kept my reads for the first hours of D1 ONLY because letting scum know early on who town thinks is scummy or townie early on is not good.
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uh. this could be a mindset difference. but scum doesn't care who people think are town. Sure, they'll kill widely townread people, but the fact is that giving out information helps town much more than it helps scum – scum already know who's who, so new info (except who power roles are) doesn't help scum as much as it does town.

scattered mind said:
Nope. If I wasn't too tired to do this I could find many quotes from past town players saying how they don't mind eliminating an inactive player because they deserve not to play - this was said out of frustration and in an attempt to force him to react to me. I already said it was a mistake - not a scummy mindset.
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I get it. The cel vote is a major way to see scattered as town. But. I don't know anymore.

Jabberwock said:
Nono I agree that plenty of town players eliminate lurkers in general; it's problematic, but that part's NAI — the scumminess is that you said in post #180 that you completely agree that as long as there are "bigger fish to fry" (Amici's words, which you quoted), "lurkers [were] out of the question" (your words). Supposedly, you had at least three actual scumreads at the time, which would certainly qualify as "bigger fish," and yet you put them aside for the leading case because if he wasn't scum, "he didn't care about the game," and you were happy with either. Policy eliminations are common enough for town to push that by itself it wouldn't be indicative, but this is a direct contradiction of your own words.

That said, the bolded is making me reconsider this point. Frustration would be a legitimate reason to vote Celever there from a town perspective, and it would also check out with your response in #563 to my initial case. Are you saying then that your main purpose in voting Cel wasn't to elim, but rather to provoke a reaction?


You didn't bring up your point on her from back then, though. You just say "Just a reminder that I was the first to read Amici as scum or at least the first to vote her. You can find our talk to each other on page 7 I believe." You never followed through on that point, so this reads entirely like a grab for towncred.
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AAAAAAAAAAAA what is this bolded i don't even know
Part 3 is gonna be so hard to write because I don't even know who it is anymore

Jabberwock said:
Okay I think this does check out. My last problem with it was that you definitely seemed to be voting to eliminate, which wouldn't have lined up with just wanting to provoke a reaction, but frustration -> ready to eliminate in the moment is an understandable progression.


If you intended it as a legitimate way to substantiate the Amici case, why wouldn't you just reiterate the point? Why send people back to page 7 to look for it?

And again, if you saw it as a legitimate point against Amici, why didn't you ever follow through on the point to begin with? You said in #563 that it was at the back of your mind because of the Celever elim (though, honestly, you dropped it way before you began to see the Cel elim as viable) and that you decided you would return to it on D2, but despite opportunities to do that at the beginning of D2, you never did.

The only conclusion I can draw from your having dropped the Amici case in mid-D1 (and not resuming it in D2, etc) is that she was no longer one of your scumreads. That would be supported by the fact that you mention your cases on Lily and Jade, but not Amici, at the beginning of D2. But if that's what happened, then why on earth did you bring that case up again on D3? The only explanation I can see is that it was a grab for towncred.
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the problem is that i mindmeld with this hard.

scattered mind said:
1) I guess I could find it and quote it. Still don't see what is scummy about it.

2) By the time of the Celever wagon I was gone due to IRL stuff. I guess I would pursue it more if I was playing the game at that period of time - you can see the first post I posted and quoted later on that shows that I have returned back to the game after disappearing.

3) I read Jade/Lily and Amici scummy together- I decided to first pursue Lily and Jade and then I had to disappear because of IRL stuff. Being scum is not the only explanation unless that is your goal to prove that I'm scum.
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scattered mind said:
@Vom - I read you as town funnily enough because of the case you made on me. It feels very likely to come from town plus your vote on Mega. I get that you think that me agreeing with mega was alarming to you that we were scumbuddies - but I think your main issue with me is the lack of transperency -The fact that I don't reveal my full rainbow list to people is not scummy - It comes from the idea that my reads are being read by scum and can be used like that. Which is ironically something I learned from Camoclone of all people. Revealing your full readlist early on can help scum more than town. Also if you need meta proofs- I did a full early readlist as scum. So not only that is not alignment indicative it is also not meta indicative on me.
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[/QUOTE]

same comment when talking about info. No info = weak town.

AAAAAAAAAAAA my brain
i thought i'd know once i checked the arguments
now i feel like i might be confbiased
part 3 coming, where i put +/- for both, and thoughts, and vote.
 
I'm mad at my momentum, since I killed it myself. Ugh.

Here we go.
Once more, one last time.
I'm not playing mafia for a long time after this :U
(they're lying they can't go without it)

brain, don't fail me.

FINAL THOUGHTS
Part 3

analysis
 
...Part 3's actually in this post lol. And the next few – I don't think I can force myself to make a single long post, so you're stuck with my stream of consciousness.

Let's look at the gamestate. Yesterday, both jabber and scattered tried to vote Vom last minute, tried being the key word: scattered didn't make it in time.

We've established that scum!Jabber switches to get towncred off of the Vom wagon with a primed scattered. This is plausible but also consider: why didn't Jabber push me instead then, if scattered was primed???

Scum!scattered votes vom because Jabber wagon wasn't picking up.

So, let's go over Parts 1 & 2.
 
Ephemera said:
2. What are your thoughts on it now, Jabber? Please share now that EoD is upon us.
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Context is that bb was asking scattered why he disappeared for ~an hour at EoD4 — my thoughts were just that I could think of several credible NAI reasons why somebody would disappear from the EoD conversation. I didn't answer that immediately because it was a question directed at scattered, not everyone, and the way he responded to it could be indicative of alignment: if he said something like "I wanted to sit back and see how things unfolded," for example, that would have been pretty anti-town at that stage in the game. But IRL-stuff reasons are fine — he answered in #688 and I commented that I thought it was fine in #702.

A general point I want to make, because you talk about timing at a few other points in your walls, is that timing is not nearly as indicative of alignment as people often make it out to be. Between random IRL stuff and timezones, none of scattered's timing this game has been problematic, and it shouldn't be your reason for voting him.
 
(notes: sorry this is taking so darn long. analysis is surprisingly mind-numbing)

Analysis, final.

Oh my god it's finally here.

Okay. From what I can remember, scattered seems to have more progression after the fact rather than in the moment. As in: there's more explanation for what happened rather than what's happening. Granted, this also applies a little to jabber but not as much.

Next, stream of consciousness, I saw mega's reads:
I think posting my own list of leans will be useful.


Vom
bbninjas
Scattered mind


I lean slightly town on these three players so far. They all seem to be asking good questions to get reads or clarify info.


Amici
Fiery Lugia
jade
Celever
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Given that the mega wagon D2 was pure (considering bb locktown), I don't think that the wolves play a bussing strategy.
Does that mean they were powerwolfing? This lends a little credit to scattered being partnered with mega.

Jabber also was pretty well-thought out with arguments versus scattered. I don't know what this means for sure.

scattered's derps with mechanics – he thought scum would be shooting for him then would lose in LYLO today, but it was LYLO, or at least MYLO, yesterday. Huh.

Okay, let's put a list:

Jabber:
+ he voted Vom to break the tie
+ he makes very good points on scattered (idk if this should be a proper townpoint)
+ makes a lot of townie points, such as pushing aside voters for bad reasons and telling them to vote with good reasons
- on occasion it seems like he's treating scattered like town, or at least it looks like trying to sympathize so if need be he can drive another wagon

Scattered:
+ weirdness. weirdness is quite often a sign of town.
+ lost, like me
+ some derps with mechanics (although this should be NAI)
- brings up old cases that went nowhere.
- didn't consider that scum could be me, instead tunneling in on jabber while saying I'm town with townie points and scummy points. Feels a little like he might have TMI'd me town.

I think there are 4 main reasons for my vote:
  1. Scattered voted Vom after Jabber voted Vom. As such, it reads heavily like scum aborting the jabber wagon.
  2. He called me town on little basis.
  3. The caring about how his old progression fit with his mindset each day.
  4. The partnery interactions with Mega.
Scattered, if you're town, I'm sorry. Regardless of alignment, I think you've played an awesome game – and this applies to everyone here as well.

For real this time, and apologies for the really bad and long analysis for not much conclusion,

##GOODNIGHT: scattered mind

...oh god it's finally done i can sleep now. My analysis is probably bad, but I'm done. I'm sorry for the low quality.

I had an amazing time this game :D
 
Jabberwock said:
Context is that bb was asking scattered why he disappeared for ~an hour at EoD4 — my thoughts were just that I could think of several credible NAI reasons why somebody would disappear from the EoD conversation. I didn't answer that immediately because it was a question directed at scattered, not everyone, and the way he responded to it could be indicative of alignment: if he said something like "I wanted to sit back and see how things unfolded," for example, that would have been pretty anti-town at that stage in the game. But IRL-stuff reasons are fine — he answered in #688 and I commented that I thought it was fine in #702.

A general point I want to make, because you talk about timing at a few other points in your walls, is that timing is not nearly as indicative of alignment as people often make it out to be. Between random IRL stuff and timezones, none of scattered's timing this game has been problematic, and it shouldn't be your reason for voting him.
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good point about timing, again proving that jabber is dismissing bad reasons to vote scattered, which i don't understand why he'd do here.
 
Good night, if bb is scum he probably insta-hammers but i doubt it, good luck, and good game!

I'll be back in the postgame.
 
I mean, since scattered hasn’t shown up with anything new then my votes probably just going to him.
 
bbninjas said:
There’s like less than an hour until day end right? So where is everyone?
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Eph already signed off, no idea about Jade, and I think scattered and I have already said everything we need to say.

My reads are pretty solidified. I looked into Ephemera earlier in the game and essentially reached the conclusion that despite some chaotic anti-town play toward the beginning of the game, it's by-and-large attributable to trying out a new playstyle, and they later called Mega out in a way I can't see them doing as scum. bb's push for Vom in the context of D4 makes him likely town as well, and that's on top of the Mega wagon. Jade is confotown. So in addition to all scattered's scumtells, my other reads are solidly enough town to pretty much lock my vote in.

Like, if you've got questions about specific points of my case on scattered, obviously I'm happy to discuss it further, but I don't really have much new to contribute to the conversation outside of that. I think we're just waiting on you and Jade to read up and cast your votes.
 
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