Finished Mafia XLIII - Battle of the Royal Palace ~ GAME OVER

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NinjaPenguin said:
Posting to note that I've seen these posts and that I'm also considering Quaking as a potential partner for scattered. I'll wait for some other people to post before saying my thoughts on the replies so far.
@Jadethepokemontrainer
@mirdo
@A Dragon of Destiny
@GM DracLord
@Blakers
@Celever
@TheAnticipationEevee

I want to hear your answer to this. Even if you've partially answered this, I haven't gotten your full response yet.
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Well, knowing Lorde, it wouldn't be completely out of the blue for the "chance to be wrong" part in a role :p

That being said, my thoughts would be that rainy is town since it would be probably not a smart decision for scum to fake seer for a kill Day 2, (especially when missing a nightkill).

I don't know whether or not Jesters are a big thing for like PB Mafia, but that could be a reason if scattered flips town. The only other thing I could see is like a lynchproof scum, which I also don't know if thats a thing :/

I would personally like Rainy to post some part that signifies about the chance of being wrong part as I am very confused why it wouldn't be explicitly said in either a part of the seer ability or a different ability.

But as of current, I guess I'm leaning toward scattered as scum just because for reasons in sentence #2, and I personally think my thoughts for sentence #3 doesn't sound likely which is why #2 is more likely, which is why it'd be more likely for scattered to be scum and rainy town.

However, rainy added that chance to be wrong thing, which worst case scenario they are both town, which is why I want rainy to post something regarding his role, but he couldn't for whatever reason earlier soooo I am left here like q.q
 
Well it might mean death tonight BUT. In my role my 2nd ability lets me see if my ability the night before was true or not. I have no way of knowing until I get to use that tonight.
 
We should wait until tomorrow, then. There has been a devastatingly absolute cessation of scumhunting today as a result of this chance-based seer which isn't good at all. We should leave rainy and scattered aside and continue to scumhunt to find more targets.
 
Your right. ##UNVOTE:
##VOTE: Celever

Saying we wait, (stalling I guess idk)

Celever said:
I'm townreading Nebby. Hopefully I can throw together a case as to why.
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Never did anything in this, makes me think it was just to make him look non scummy protecting a town.

Not much else but then again I do agree we should wait to tomorrow to lynch scattered IF my ability says he is scum. If not, I would definetely go after after Celever. If so, cool, I don't necessarily have more plans from there on out.

Ik it's not much to go off of mpbut it's still scummy.
 
Celever said:
We should wait until tomorrow, then. There has been a devastatingly absolute cessation of scumhunting today as a result of this chance-based seer which isn't good at all. We should leave rainy and scattered aside and continue to scumhunt to find more targets.
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You scumhunt then. I have a lot of good tandem reads with scattered and rainy, which I hopefully should be able to explain by the end of the day. A scattered lynch gets us really far, especially considering the fact he was a main option yesterday.

@rainyman123 Unless there's even more to your role than you've said, I think it would be best for you to claim. If you have any other abilities besides the ones you've told us about, just leave them out.
 
rainyman123 said:
Your right. ##UNVOTE:
##VOTE: Celever

Saying we wait, (stalling I guess idk)

Never did anything in this, makes me think it was just to make him look non scummy protecting a town.

Not much else but then again I do agree we should wait to tomorrow to lynch scattered IF my ability says he is scum. If not, I would definetely go after after Celever. If so, cool, I don't necessarily have more plans from there on out.

Ik it's not much to go off of mpbut it's still scummy.
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I was inactive from the site as a whole over that period. Life got in the way of the case, unfortunately.
NinjaPenguin said:
You scumhunt then. I have a lot of good tandem reads with scattered and rainy, which I hopefully should be able to explain by the end of the day. A scattered lynch gets us really far, especially considering the fact he was a main option yesterday.

@rainyman123 Unless there's even more to your role than you've said, I think it would be best for you to claim. If you have any other abilities besides the ones you've told us about, just leave them out.
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I'm not adverse to a scattered lynch because I don't think he's been his usual self, but that's entirely a meta read which are always weaker than normal ready. Low activity means that scumhunting is difficult and honestly I have a lot on my plate at the minute. I don't want to put the effort into another game where I'll just get nightkilled soon and then the whole town drives itself into a hole. Once scumhunting happens I'll help out with it, but stagnating the whole process over night results is just a poor use of time because it only concerns two players.
 
Celever said:
What would this achieve?
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I want to see if that role aligns with my hypothesis on it. If it does, I may have some insight on what some of Lorde's role design will be like. It also can't hurt us if there's no information rainy hasn't already revealed about it.

Scattered is also a great lynch because of a couple of other things:
  • Tandem reads. Of all players, he's gotten the most comments on him, which gives the best tandem reads. As an example, Quaking and Blakers both have interactions with scattered that make them scummy if he's scum.
  • The lynch shift. You agree with me that the Nebby lynch was scummy, and it saved scattered. That leads me to believe he's scum.
  • His reaction to being seered as scum. For scattered, the chance of rainy being town is the chance of rainy's seer result being inaccurate (I know that has a fallacy imbedded in it, but it's still about correct). At most, that's probably 50%. Otherwise, Rainy's scum. I don't think scattered has any options that he believes gives him a 50% chance of hitting scum, which means that rainy is certainly the best option for him. Yet he still doesn't want it, as he knows rainy flipping town will almost certainly expose him as scum (if he was a townie, he'd take the best lynch, not the one that gives him the best chance at staying alive. The win condition for town is taking the best lynch. The win condition for scum is staying alive. The fact he wants to stay alive is playing like he has the win-con of scum, not town. That's probably because he does.). There's one role-based thing that could nullify this point, but scattered would need to have a very specific role that I doubt he has. I'll still give him the chance to claim it, if he wants to claim at this time. If he doesn't within the next 20 hours/his next post, I won't believe him even if he claims it later. Tagging @scattered mind so he can see this.
  • He was seered as scum. This speaks for itself.
And if scattered is town after all of this, we have a good lead on rainy. This lynch is great in so many ways.

P.S. My reaction point may be a bit confusing. If anyone wants me to clarify it, I can.
 
NinjaPenguin said:
I want to see if that role aligns with my hypothesis on it. If it does, I may have some insight on what some of Lorde's role design will be like. It also can't hurt us if there's no information rainy hasn't already revealed about it.
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There's this marriage thing he keeps piping up about. This could be tied to his flavour, and its effects could crumble by claiming it. I'm not saying they will, just that it's a possibility. What's the hypothesis?
Scattered is also a great lynch because of a couple of other things:
  • Tandem reads. Of all players, he's gotten the most comments on him, which gives the best tandem reads. As an example, Quaking and Blakers both have interactions with scattered that make them scummy if he's scum.
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I always dislike this reasoning because it essentially punishes activity.
  • The lynch shift. You agree with me that the Nebby lynch was scummy, and it saved scattered. That leads me to believe he's scum.
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Early game lynches are oftentimes town vs town. The lynch had to shift from one of them to the other, and in a town vs town it's lose-lose. Therefore, I also find this reasoning shaky.
  • His reaction to being seered as scum. For scattered, the chance of rainy being town is the chance of rainy's seer result being inaccurate (I know that has a fallacy imbedded in it, but it's still about correct). At most, that's probably 50%. Otherwise, Rainy's scum. I don't think scattered has any options that he believes gives him a 50% chance of hitting scum, which means that rainy is certainly the best option for him. Yet he still doesn't want it, as he knows rainy flipping town will almost certainly expose him as scum (if he was a townie, he'd take the best lynch, not the one that gives him the best chance at staying alive. The win condition for town is taking the best lynch. The win condition for scum is staying alive. The fact he wants to stay alive is playing like he has the win-con of scum, not town. That's probably because he does.). There's one role-based thing that could nullify this point, but scattered would need to have a very specific role that I doubt he has. I'll still give him the chance to claim it, if he wants to claim at this time. If he doesn't within the next 20 hours/his next post, I won't believe him even if he claims it later. Tagging @scattered mind so he can see this.
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I disagree with this assertion; this is quite a narrow view overall. The thought of rainy being scum just doesn't sit right with me because it doesn't make sense for scum to stick their necks out so early on in the game. I imagine scattered has the same thought. For me, the question is whether the result was right or not, not whether rainy is scum or not. He's a strong town read in my books and it'll take quite a force to convince me otherwise. With the revelation that he also has an ability which allows him to confirm his results or not, the chances of him being scum are diminutive.
  • He was seered as scum. This speaks for itself.
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This point will be great tomorrow if rainy can confirm the result or not.
And if scattered is town after all of this, we have a good lead on rainy. This lynch is great in so many ways.
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I disagree with this. If scattered is town, rainy got a bogus result. That's all.
 
Wow that formatting is quite literally terrible and I'm sorry everyone. This is why I don't like bullet points, ftr. :p
 
Celever said:
There's this marriage thing he keeps piping up about. This could be tied to his flavour, and its effects could crumble by claiming it. I'm not saying they will, just that it's a possibility. What's the hypothesis?
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Has he piped the marriage thing that much? I'm pretty sure rainy mentioned it once only...
 
Also more than likely if I'm killed tonight scattered is defiantly Town. But since we're going scattered tomorrow or whoever, who gets lynched today?
 
rainyman123 said:
Also more than likely if I'm killed tonight scattered is defiantly Town. But since we're going scattered tomorrow or whoever, who gets lynched today?
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My money's on TAE. After all, coming in only to share thoughts on that one small part of the post is kinda active lurking and non-contributive.
 
Celever said:
My money's on TAE. After all, coming in only to share thoughts on that one small part of the post is kinda active lurking and non-contributive.
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Well, I actively try to catch up on new posts, and then I process whether or not those posts make sense in my mind. Rather than simply saying I agree and disagree, which would also be considered non contributive/ I can either post nothing at all, or post something I have a question about. So if I think something is not necessarily correct, I post a question cause I like to confirm facts with other people to make sure I'm not making stuff up in my mind.

I've already shared my thoughts about rainy vs scattered above, and there was like one new
comment I was considering whether or not to post which was another question, but I found the answer to that question without having to ask here which was regarding rainy.

I don't think I have ever posted much in previous mafias cause I just don't get these subtle things in forum mafias compared to like Town of Salem which has basically concrete evidence, hence why I don't play these much, but I joined this game solely cause I promised lorde :p

rainyman123 said:
Also more than likely if I'm killed tonight scattered is defiantly Town. But since we're going scattered tomorrow or whoever, who gets lynched today?
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I would go for scattered today cause if rainy is killed tonight, then the whole town will not have your other ability's confirmation of whether last night's actions were true which kind of ruins the intention of not scattered/rainy lynch today.
 
I'm wondering if Rainy is like Birdo from my game. If he is, I'd think that lorde might borrow some other of our unique roles.
@rainyman123 Can you claim the ability that will allow you to see if your result is accurate? If it involves the marriage (which I thought was related to someone else's role based on your description), you don't need to.
 
Now that I made that comment above, I just realized...

Celever said:
We should wait until tomorrow, then. There has been a devastatingly absolute cessation of scumhunting today as a result of this chance-based seer which isn't good at all. We should leave rainy and scattered aside and continue to scumhunt to find more targets.
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This is not a good idea because

rainyman123 said:
Also more than likely if I'm killed tonight scattered is defiantly Town.
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Then scum can start their psychological game of if Rainy is killed, then scattered is town. Oh but since rainy said that, and he was killed and flipped town, many scattered killed him so that trail is off him, so its uncertainty of scattered's alignment if rainy is killed.

So in fact whatever cel pointed out is a terrible idea imo cause then it leaves town confused tomorrow too.
 
Oh I actually can think of things to say now xd

My one hunch now is if scattered flips scum, then my wild guess would be cel is also scum cause he's trying to shift the target away from scattered (and rainy, but scattered would be the person that matters in this scenario) and to someone else.
 
Yeah I don't wanna risk all that confusion tomorrow more than likely giving the scum the edge.


##UNVOTE
##VOTE: Scattered Mind
 
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