Finished Mafia XXXVIII: Battle for the Republic (Congratulations Darth Sidious!)
- Thread starter Squirtle Squad
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Right now, only bb or Vrac can be indie, since Vrac's result confirms DoS as town (bb could still technically have that indie ability). If we lynch Vrac, bb dies with him, giving us the win (if bb lied about his ability, we can just lynch him tomorrow).
##VOTE: Vracken
##VOTE: Vracken
By that indie ability, I mean the one we lynched Drac for potentially having.
P.S. Drac had a 12.5% chance of being seered as town twice. The other 87.5% chance is Vrac lying.
P.S. Drac had a 12.5% chance of being seered as town twice. The other 87.5% chance is Vrac lying.
Just clarify something for me; if Vrack's results confirm DoS as town but I may still have that indie Ability, then why can't DoS also have that indie Ability?
Vracken scanned me as scum as well as town iirc.
You know, I'm not too sure how I feel about this indie ability theory. We don't even know if this ability exists, which while it is possible, there's also a chance there isn't such a thing. Which brings me to another point, we don't know for sure the way this game's roles work. Vracken's role says that it has a 75% chance of coming up with scum, but we don't know if that is affected by this ability, or if it isn't. Not to mention that we've already lynched Drac due to this and considering the game hasn't ended yet I'm assuming that he's town. Basically I don't think this theory is helpful in this game state.
So right now I'd say Vracken is my top suspect, mainly for starting this theory in the first place and, what do you know? Also being in possession of the scanning ability that from what I can see, caused this theory. NP's already voting him though, and if it's 3 votes to lynch I'd rather not vote atm.
Percent confuses me sometimes, but I'm pretty sure that Drac having a 12.5% chance to be scanned town twice doesn't mean Vracken had an 87.5% to be lying. Unless of course I'm reading something wrong here which wouldn't really surprise me.
That's right. I was super rushed and didn't realize I was making a large logical fallacy when I said that.
Vracken
Just a Ghost of the Past
I only theorized about the ability being possible because I have seen it in another game, and I was at a loss as to what else to do otherwise, beyond that they were also the person who had no town reads from me unlike the rest of you.
or if you are the indie and you win right there. That statement reads really suspiciously to me. Thanks to this alone you are my top read, not even including the fact you are the only person left that I haven't read as town (though admittedly I haven't read you yet).
@NinjaPenguin ; Why did you pretty much ignore this?
The thing that I think gives this theory a lot of credibility is the fact that Jabberwock would scan as scum even though he was town. This is a somewhat popular counterbalance for an ability that makes someone scan town, which is also a popular indie ability. I don't think it's a particularly odd thing to bring up at all. I also wouldn't assume that Drac is town, because we don't know the indie wincon. Drac may not have a traditional "Survive to the end of the game wincon" where he could win even if he is dead or would die in future.
DoS explained it here:
To clarify, Vrac scanned lord (who is now DoS) as scum once and scanned DoS as town once.
Thanks for clarifying.
I'm really not that confident on who to vote; I definitely overlooked the scum/town scan on DoS, so I'm not confident in that at all anymore. I still don't think Vrack is scum, and I think the reasoning on him is a bit silly, aside from the fact that NP and Vrack are the only ones that haven't been scanned town (or at all). The thing that doesn't add up for me is why wouldn't Vrack just fake results that a player is scum, to save his skin if he was actually scum, since his role would mean he could easily get away with that. On the other hand, that statement that Vrack quoted about NP pings my scumdar as it's giving a misleadinge mindset to the town that there is only one option, when in actuality there's not just one option. I'm most confident in a NP lynch, so ##VOTE: NinjaPenguin ftm.
@GM DracLord @double o squirtle The day is close to ending. Do you have any thoughts?
We need adequate time to discuss their thoughts.
Not much really, though the fact that you didn't defend, let alone respond, to this:
does strike me as a bit odd.
I said that because I know I'm town. As for whether a Vrac lynch would guarantee a win for me if I am the indie, I don't know. Drac's ability could be used to break a tie between the last two.
Whenever someone says "I'm town" in that kind of post, some people view it as a scumtell (or a form of AtE if I say something like "or you can lynch me and probably lose the game"). It's a lose-lose situation.
By the way, @double o squirtle have you been using your Active Ability recently?
Yeah. Why?
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