Next Season's Standard Format: SM-on!

[Mysticvulpix]

Well, the fact that zoroark loses the techs it needs for support is probably overwhelming, as it looses the element of speed. It will now take longer to get played on the field, and in less quantities as seen before. Evolution might also be tricky, as without evosoda it is harder to get 2-4 zoroark down turn 2, as it used to, and currently is. Meanwhile, buzzwole is at least replacing the items that it’s losing, even if the consistency and damage output of it are dramatically changing.
2. Metacalls can still be extremely powerful, as we saw with MEGA Audino EX back in 2017, and how would you know how it’s played if you haven’t played it before. Have you?
3. I took a look at what’s coming in celestial storm, and there are a few cards there that could put together a deck, such as Macargo from champion road setting up the deck, energy recycle returning the discarded energy to the deck, and Blaziken (the normal one, not the gx) charging up Blaziken gx so it can hit its 1hko. It might be effective with the right cards!

 

[Mysticvulpix]

I think Reshiram GX and Victini Prism will give fire decks a huge boost, and I wouldn't be surprised if a Reshiram focused deck appeared, perhaps paired with someone like Infernape from Ultra Prism/Forbidden Light. Reshiram keeps fire decks alive, just. And if we expect to see a lot of Dragons, we'll see a lot of Fairies, and more Metal, thus more Fire. Although I might be going off on a few tangents there...

I do agree! Fairy decks will be on the rise after rotation, due to Ultra necrozma gx decks and Rayquaza gx decks becoming the main pieces of meta game post rotation. Fairy decks will then have an advantage, which is why I say that gardevoir gx And sylveon gx decks will be come amazingly popular.
And for consistency? I think most fairy decks will play sylveon from ultra prism, due to the fact it can first give you a look at your opponents hand, then allow you to pick a supporter from that hand, use it, and then discard it, giving major help while putting your opponent in a difficult position.

 

[Mysticvulpix]

1. Zoroark doesn’t lose as much as something like Buzzwole, and Buzzwole has a chance at staying in the format (despite it outright losing to Beast box and Malamar). The big question is: “who is the best partner for Zoroark?”

2. Gardy-Zoroark was purely a meta-call and is a bit difficult to pilot effectively, IIRC

3. The only fire decks I can see doing anything is Kiawe Ho-oh GX, but even that deck has some glaring issues.

Finally to answer your question about what zoroark decks will survive: First, let’s take a look at golisopod gx. It’s losing float stone, which is a major hit to the deck, making it harder for golisopod to retreat. This key card loss will hit golisopod hard, making it more difficult to rereat and reset. Bridget and sycamore, as well as N, are going out, making the draw speed much slower until you get zoroark out, and as said before, that will be also much slower.
Zoroark garbodor might stay for awhile, so that may be an option as they’re reprinting garbotoxin garbodor, but it may not be too powerful due to zoroark loosing some strength. There’s also lysandre lbs, which cancels out any affects of Pokémon tools, nullifying the use of garbotoxin.
The only real zoroark deck that may stay around would be zoroark lycanroc, and that will take a blow when the new pinsir comes out.

 

[Otaku]

3. I took a look at what’s coming in celestial storm, and there are a few cards there that could put together a deck, such as Macargo from champion road setting up the deck, energy recycle returning the discarded energy to the deck, and Blaziken (the normal one, not the gx) charging up Blaziken gx so it can hit its 1hko. It might be effective with the right cards!

Magcargo (Champion Road 010/066) will help a lot of decks, not just [R] decks. It might help Zoroark-GX decks the most! Prepare for a metagame where any effect that recycles something to the bottom of the deck effectively sends at least one card to hand. I'm not claiming it is better than either, but once you've got this set up you can use the combo to effectively search out Supporters without a Tapu Lele-GX or allow a Pal Pad to fake being a VS Seeker.

I'm not claiming to be an expert on the current or the pending metagame; I've barely been keeping up with developments myself. Based on my past experiences and both present and future alternatives, I just think some folks are dismissing decks too quickly. Remember, a lesser choice is still a choice, and sometimes the metagame causes a lesser choice to Evolve into a good choice or even the best choice. For example: If everyone writes of Golisopod-GX because it loses Float Stone, it might lead them to play decks vulnerable to current Golispod-GX decks tweaked to rely or rely more heavily upon the options that remain: Acerola, Escape Rope, Guzma, Super Scoop Up, Switch, etc. Or just wait for Zeraora-GX, to use its Ability for a free Retreat Cost (we'll still have Rainbow Energy...).

So, to be clear, I am not saying I know exactly what is going to happen. Its the opposite: I believe the data (which includes how past metagames developed) suggests things could easily go either way.

 

[AuraJackle]

There’s also lysandre lbs, which cancels out any affects of Pokémon tools, nullifying the use of garbotoxin.

No it doesnt garbodor still has a tool equipped so its ability is active just not the tool

 

[Perfect_Shot]

I can't with good faith believe Rayquaza will be good post rotation. Not sure what people are basing it's success on, the win at the Japan Championships seems terribly flukey, with several of the top lists running sub-optimal amounts of Tool removal and as such being unable to deal with all the FFB's the Ray player used. Without Max Elixir the deck doesn't have speed and Vikavolt is better served with Bulu who only needs 3 attachments for a OHKO. Ray relies so much on Storm and Stress post rotation, which is such a painful Ability to use; you discard the top 12 cards of your deck in total after 4 separate uses of the Ability just get a single attachment on 4 separate Rayquaza.

The format really isn't slowing down enough where this can shine. The top decks aren't losing enough cards, and from my perspective people are over-estimating the impact of the loss of those cards.

 

[Mysticvulpix]

Magcargo (Champion Road 010/066) will help a lot of decks, not just [R] decks. It might help Zoroark-GX decks the most! Prepare for a metagame where any effect that recycles something to the bottom of the deck effectively sends at least one card to hand. I'm not claiming it is better than either, but once you've got this set up you can use the combo to effectively search out Supporters without a Tapu Lele-GX or allow a Pal Pad to fake being a VS Seeker.

I'm not claiming to be an expert on the current or the pending metagame; I've barely been keeping up with developments myself. Based on my past experiences and both present and future alternatives, I just think some folks are dismissing decks too quickly. Remember, a lesser choice is still a choice, and sometimes the metagame causes a lesser choice to Evolve into a good choice or even the best choice. For example: If everyone writes of Golisopod-GX because it loses Float Stone, it might lead them to play decks vulnerable to current Golispod-GX decks tweaked to rely or rely more heavily upon the options that remain: Acerola, Escape Rope, Guzma, Super Scoop Up, Switch, etc. Or just wait for Zeraora-GX, to use its Ability for a free Retreat Cost (we'll still have Rainbow Energy...).

So, to be clear, I am not saying I know exactly what is going to happen. Its the opposite: I believe the data (which includes how past metagames developed) suggests things could easily go either way.

I never thought of that! My brother plays a zoropod deck, and uses plenty of switch, acerola and guzma, so I may have to relate that to him. The only thing is: would a fire Pokémon be able to be put into a zoroark deck to make macargo actually fit with typing? Or is that obsolete

 

[Mysticvulpix]

No it doesnt garbodor still has a tool equipped so its ability is active just not the tool

Lysandre labs says that both you and your opponents tool cards have no effects. Garbotoxin is an effect caused by the tool card if I’m not mistaken, so isn’t garbotoxin cancelled out?

 

[Mysticvulpix]

I can't with good faith believe Rayquaza will be good post rotation. Not sure what people are basing it's success on, the win at the Japan Championships seems terribly flukey, with several of the top lists running sub-optimal amounts of Tool removal and as such being unable to deal with all the FFB's the Ray player used. Without Max Elixir the deck doesn't have speed and Vikavolt is better served with Bulu who only needs 3 attachments for a OHKO. Ray relies so much on Storm and Stress post rotation, which is such a painful Ability to use; you discard the top 12 cards of your deck in total after 4 separate uses of the Ability just get a single attachment on 4 separate Rayquaza.

The format really isn't slowing down enough where this can shine. The top decks aren't losing enough cards, and from my perspective people are over-estimating the impact of the loss of those cards.

Nobody’s overestimating the losses. It’s surprising just how big of an impact certain cards in a deck have on the playing ability. The reason why people think Rayquaza might be a powerful card is due to the fact of how it’s like gardevoir, which we saw won Worlds in two of the three divisions. There are definitely cards that can support it, as we see with Latias prism, and energy recycle.

 

[Merovingian]

Nobody’s overestimating the losses. It’s surprising just how big of an impact certain cards in a deck have on the playing ability. The reason why people think Rayquaza might be a powerful card is due to the fact of how it’s like gardevoir, which we saw won Worlds in two of the three divisions. There are definitely cards that can support it, as we see with Latias prism, and energy recycle.

The problem with Rayquaza is that, unlike Gardevoir, it isn't a tank. And you could manipulate damage better with DCE.

And Gardys Ability HELPED more than it was a necessity. And I think a lot of people are going to look at Garbodor for Worlds to shut it down.

Post rotation, it loses several important Trainers and functions slower than VikaBulu, Beast Box, and maybe Zoroark.

 

[Mysticvulpix]

The problem with Rayquaza is that, unlike Gardevoir, it isn't a tank. And you could manipulate damage better with DCE.

And Gardys Ability HELPED more than it was a necessity. And I think a lot of people are going to look at Garbodor for Worlds to shut it down.

Post rotation, it loses several important Trainers and functions slower than VikaBulu, Beast Box, and maybe Zoroark.

Who, Gardevoir? Or Rayquaza, because:

My thought on gardevoir is that you can play Sylveon from ultra prism to use your opponents trainers besides yours, to help you while disrupting your opponents, and it will lose just as many supporters as other decks. My hope is to use the other supporters coming soon.

Meanwhile, Rayquaza isn’t losing supporters, it’s gaining them! With things like Lance prism to efficiently get Pokémon in play and zinnia for charging energy, and sightseer to get cards into the discard to help things like Latias prism and draw cards, it’s practically getting help from rotation.

 

[AuraJackle]

Lysandre labs says that both you and your opponents tool cards have no effects. Garbotoxin is an effect caused by the tool card if I’m not mistaken, so isn’t garbotoxin cancelled out?

No garbotoxin as an ability functions so that so long as garbodor has a tool attached regardless of whether its functioning will block all abilities. Lysander labs or pokemon abilities like ros bannete have no effect on the actual ability labs does however keep the float stone from working so you could trap a garb up potentially

 

[Mysticvulpix]

No garbotoxin as an ability functions so that so long as garbodor has a tool attached regardless of whether its functioning will block all abilities. Lysander labs or pokemon abilities like ros bannete have no effect on the actual ability labs does however keep the float stone from working so you could trap a garb up potentially

Oooh, okay. I was confused by the ruling there, so thanks for the help!

 

[Otaku]

I never thought of that! My brother plays a zoropod deck, and uses plenty of switch, acerola and guzma, so I may have to relate that to him. The only thing is: would a fire Pokémon be able to be put into a zoroark deck to make macargo actually fit with typing? Or is that obsolete

What do you mean "fit with Typing"? Pokémon Typing only matters when;

1) Worrying about hitting Weakness or Resistance

2) You're using effects which require a Pokémon be a certain Type.

3) Your opponent is using an effect which requires your own Pokémon to be a certain Type.

The Typing on Energy requirements can matter, but Smooth over doesn't care about Energy at all, and we're not running Magcargo to attack, we're running it for its "Smooth Over" Ability. In fact, its lone attack - Searing Shot (Japanese name) - is quite poor, needing [RCC] to do 50. Even in a deck that can meet the cost, you will rarely want to use it.

Unless you were talking about Magcargo-GX this whole time, in which case please remember to include the "-GX" part of its name, even if you're commenting via a mobile device where that actually is a bit of a hassle. Given past trends, we will not be getting Magcargo-GX in SM - Celestial Storm but the set after, while the Magcargo I mentioned should be in Celestial Storm. Similarly, given past trends, Magcargo w/Smooth Over should be a great card run in several decks while Magcargo-GX will only enjoy that if people are willing/able to run both Magcargo w/Smooth Over and Magcargo-GX together, in the same deck which... might not be a bad idea.

The thing is, if we do run the two together... you don't really have to worry about Typing; you could run just one or two basic Fire Energy cards in your deck to access the GX-attack from Magcargo-GX (which I like) and might not need much more to use its regular attack.

 

[Mysticvulpix]

What do you mean "fit with Typing"? Pokémon Typing only matters when;

1) Worrying about hitting Weakness or Resistance

2) You're using effects which require a Pokémon be a certain Type.

3) Your opponent is using an effect which requires your own Pokémon to be a certain Type.

The Typing on Energy requirements can matter, but Smooth over doesn't care about Energy at all, and we're not running Magcargo to attack, we're running it for its "Smooth Over" Ability. In fact, its lone attack - Searing Shot (Japanese name) - is quite poor, needing [RCC] to do 50. Even in a deck that can meet the cost, you will rarely want to use it.

Unless you were talking about Magcargo-GX this whole time, in which case please remember to include the "-GX" part of its name, even if you're commenting via a mobile device where that actually is a bit of a hassle. Given past trends, we will not be getting Magcargo-GX in SM - Celestial Storm but the set after, while the Magcargo I mentioned should be in Celestial Storm. Similarly, given past trends, Magcargo w/Smooth Over should be a great card run in several decks while Magcargo-GX will only enjoy that if people are willing/able to run both Magcargo w/Smooth Over and Magcargo-GX together, in the same deck which... might not be a bad idea.

The thing is, if we do run the two together... you don't really have to worry about Typing; you could run just one or two basic Fire Energy cards in your deck to access the GX-attack from Magcargo-GX (which I like) and might not need much more to use its regular attack.

Sry I was talking about macargo GX

 

[Otaku]

Sry I was talking about macargo GX

Okay. So, now we get to the other reason I brought up "Smooth Over" Magcargo; there are a lot of "lateral changes" like this happening in the TCG post rotation. Oh, and this is @Everyone (Whew! No one with that as an actual screen name) and not just you, @Mysticvulpix. Maybe I'm wrong and Magcargo ends up being nice, but if I'm not wrong, this is a huge boost for decks already running compatible draw. Even without Ability based draw, smaller draw yield cards like Professor Kukui or Acro Bike (the latter is being reprinted) let you grab whatever you need reliably. Well, one of whatever you need.

Which may sound radically different, but we're losing Brigette (for setting up hearty Benches), N (Good early draw, good disruption), Professor Sycamore (massive draw), Octillery BKT (solid reusable draw), etc. but we're getting new tricks that cause things to work differently, but still work.

 

[Mysticvulpix]

True. With things like sightseer coming in soon, there is definitely some interesting changes coming to the metagame. One question personally to you: what do you thing buzzwole will be like post rotation?

 

[Otaku]

@Mysticvulpix

Keeing in mind that this is a prediction "for fun" or because one was asked of me and not because I feel confident in predicting what will actually be best for the metagame, I simply predict a "different" Buzzwole-GX deck. Yes, not very useful. It will hurt losing so many things that once benefitted it, and it might have to "merge" with another archetype (new or old) to really stay relevant, but beyond that... things are still quite wide open.