Discussion Quad Wobb Stall; The Other Numbers Game (long analysis)

Benach

Aspiring Trainer
Member
This is more of a curiosity than anything, but I have seen this deck in a couple of places now and I'm curious how strong its legs are, if it's standing on any.

I'm referring to the deck that plays 4 Wobuffet and no other pokemon or energy, with the intention of decking out the opponent by removing Energy constantly and milling with Team Rocket's Handiwork. What I'm curious about, is how likely it is to base-line function, and if so, by how many cards it wins by on average.

These are the important cards in the deck
Code:
4x Wobuffet

4x Team Rocket's Handiwork
Team Flare Grunt
Team Skull Grunt
Lysandre
Brigette

4x VS Seeker
4x Puzzle of Time
Crushing Hammer
Enhanced Hammer
Captivating Pokepuff

The way the deck is played is straightforward.

Play Brigette to get Wobbuffet out immediately
Play Energy removal if the opponent plays Energy
Play Team Skull Grunt if you think they're holding Energy
Play Captivating Pokepuff to force them to bench pokemon they don't want in play
Play Lysandre to strand a Pokemon that can't attack or retreat in the Active
and, when you have free time, try to play as many Team Rocket's Handiwork as you can.

If all goes according to plan, you discard about a dozen cards from their deck without them being able to attack and you win the long game. How do you play against that? It's actually even simpler!

Play Energy when able
Attack when able
Play cards that return more than one card to your hand or deck
Do not play anything else

The aim of the game is changed, when playing against a stall deck like this. Both players have to play to keep as many cards in their hand and deck. Playing against Quad Wobb means it's difficult to get all 6 Prizes. Conversely, this means that you're in absolutely no hurry to get KOs, as they will let you play for as long as you want. They don't need to play any Draw cards, they don't need to be worried about getting KO'd, that's entirely Quad Wobb's concern. Funnily enough, this means that Quad Wobb must be proactive and reactive, otherwise they run the chance of simply being unlucky. Even a Rowlet with a single energy is threatening, as it can eventually KO in the 30 turns or so that it will take for the game to finish.

There's a couple of other things I want to assume, for the purposes of this thread;

-The opponent identifies the deck and plays appropriately. This is extremely important. If the opponent does not recognize that Quad Wobb's plan is to stall, they will immediately remove cards from their access and it'll be much easier for Quad Wobb to win. However, it should be very obvious to them. Quad Wobb begins the game with a Wobb in play and Brigettes up three more and no other Pokemon. They never play any Energy. They Mulligan very frequently, revealing all of their Hammers, Pokepuffs, and Team Rocket's Handiwork. The best case scenario for Quad Wobb is to play second, and their first hand contains a Wobbuffet. That gives them one turn for the opponent to make a mistake and get rid of cards. Second best case is them going first and the opponent playing additional basics down. If they notice the lone Wobbuffet and the player not playing anything at all, they are in no hurry to remove cards.

-The opponent needs 2 Energy attachments (either two basics or special energy) to attack effectively. Any more, and it's much easier for Quad Wobb to prevent attacks and strand a inoffensive Pokemon. Any less, and it's much easier for the opponent to get KOs and gain the card advantage. Likewise, assume the opponent needs only one card to retreat, either via Float Stone, Escape Rope or a single Energy card.

-The opponent does not have Energy recursion or acceleration. Energy Removal is at a limited premium in this deck.

-The opponent has access to at least one N. Most decks run N, either in single or multiple copies. I think it's reasonable to assume that, in any game involving Quad Wobb, their opponent will be either holding an N in hand or a VS Seeker and N is in their deck or discard. Quad Wobb must assume this to be true, regardless of whether it is. This means that not just the number of cards in deck, but also in hand is what matter.

-The opponent does not have access to significant card recursion. That means assuming they don't have access to Fisherman, Brock's Grit, Karen or other similar cards. These cards crush Quad Wobb easily, by recurring so many cards they can't possibly keep up. Quad Wobb's best hope against these cards is hoping they're all prized. Likewise, assume the opponent is not playing any sort of mill or discard effect of their own.

So, with all that in mind, how to make sense of the match. I believe it is best to think of it purely in terms of number of cards in hand and deck. That's the only way that Quad Wobb can win. Even if, at some point, you get them down to 5 cards in deck while you're at 15 cards in deck, the opponent can just play N. That means that every card played matters. If either player plays a card for no real benefit, they are only harming their chances of winning. I think the best way to discuss about it is in individual actions in the match.

Every KO'd Wobbuffet is +2 cards for the opponent, as it adds the prize card to their hand when drawn and removes a card from their hand when they N themselves. In addition to simply KO'ing all Wobbuffet in play or taking 6 prizes, this is also a tremendous card boost to the opponent. Must avoid at all costs.

Every energy that the opponent plays is -1 card for them. Every energy removal card is -1 for Quad Wobb. This evens out, except for Crushing Hammer, which is on averages 0.5 cards, or 2 cards for 4 if they're playing all 4.

Every Lysandre played is -1 for Quad Wobb. The thought with this play is to either effectively remove Energy (by stranding another Pokemon with no energy in the active) or force the opponent to also play a card, like Float Stone or Escape Rope, returning to parity.

Every Team Rocket's Handiwork played is two coinflips. The results are [-1, +1, +1, +3] cards, meaning each TRH is an average of +1 card. With all 4 VS Seeker and all 4 Puzzle of Time, this gives Quad Wobb an average of +12 cards. This is reduced by 1 if you need to use a VS Seeker or Puzzle to fetch a different, necessary Supporter.

Captivating Pokepuff is, in the best case, +2 cards on the first play and +1 card on the second play (-1 for playing Pokepuff, +3 or +2 for placing 3 or 2 basics.) This has the added effect of showing the opponent's deck, but that's not necessary. Should be played as late as possible, to ensure that the opponent is holding Basics.

If the average deck is playing 8 Basic Energy and 4 Double Colorless Energy, that means Quad Wobb has just barely enough energy denial cards to remove all energy, if they have 4 Crushing Hammer, 4 Enhanced Hammer and 4 Team Flare Grunt. If the Crushing Hammers flip poorly, they may have to use Lysandre or VS Seeker additional Team Flare Grunt.

Team Skull Grunt is difficult for Quad Wobb to play. The best scenario where it can be played is if they are certain that the opponent's hand is containing Energy, and even then it's only for +1 card. Even in response to a Fisherman or Shaymin Sky Return, it doesn't keep up with the opponent's card count.

All Crushing Hammer, Enhanced Hammer or Team Flare Grunt prized is either one extra energy the opponent gets to play or one fewer VS Seeker/Puzzle that can be used for TRH. And, of course, every TRH prized is one fewer TRH. 16 cards out of 60, so about 1.6 of the six prizes. In addition, if only one or three Puzzle of Time is prized, that is the equivalent of 2 or 4, as using only one puzzle of time instead of two is worthless.

To recap:
-4x Team Rocket's Handiwork is +4 cards on average
-8x VS Seeker and Puzzle of Time is ideally played for +8 cards with TRH, but because of Crushing Hammer's coinflip and prizes, I think it's closer to +5 to instead reuse E.Hammer or TFG
-2x Captivating Pokepuff is +3 cards total, provided it hits all 5 Basics

That's +12 cards for Quad Wobb. I believe this is the best card draw, average coinflips scenario. But of course, that's very rare, and has a few issues.

First off, Brigette probably needs to be played as soon as possible. It's probably better to let yourself be KO'd once or twice than it is to be benched. However, Brigette for 3 Wobbuffet is -4 cards total (-1 for playing Brigette, -3 for removing all 3 Wobbuffet from your deck,) I think it is better to fetch for only 2 additional Wobbuffet and ending up at -3 cards. Ideally, Quad Wobb will be able to hold the 4th Wobbuffet in their hand at all times.

Second, most deck lists play a lot of "card-disadvantage" or worthless cards. Skyla and Trainer's Mail are played for consistency, getting the necessary trainer cards at the time, but are -1 card. Field Blower is played, but any Tool or Stadium card that the opponent plays should have an immediate effect (damaging or KOing a wobbuffet), so Field Blower going 1 for 1 with a card that has already done its job is more of a band-aid than a solution. I've seen Rescue Stretcher, but if that card is ever played, it must be because Quad Wobb is in a horrid position (-1 +2 vs +4 from prizes.) I've seen Fighting Fury Belt played, for +40 HP, but those are -1 card for one additional turn of stall at best. I've also seen N played, but I believe it can only help on your turn 1 after the opponent played cards unnecessarily. Granted, these cards are to fill the deck more than anything else, but they're often played out of necessity.

If you assume Brigette for two Wobbuffet and 2 of either Skyla or Trainer's Mail, the count ends around +7. That's assuming no KO'd Wobbuffet, no card recovery at all, and the other assumed conditions I outlined above.
Does this seem reasonable? (The content, not the length of the post)
 
Ok, so I recently played against this on the ladder with Volcanion. What I did was power up a baby volcanion with a fury belt and just took OHKOs. I didn't even do it that well. If I had to play that match over, my plan would be to only play that one volcanion, and just make sure energy and fury belts are attached. But overall IMO Volcanion is a bad matchup for this deck, even with poke puffs. In fact, for anyone who ever plays against this deck, ultra ball away other basics you don't want so they cannot be benched and stranded all in one go.

In terms of your math, I think for what you saw, you got it right, but what you didn't see really matters. Your opponent still has to get set up. This means they might have to play a Sycamore (-7 to them), or a N (-1 to them). And the ability lock an be big, as some decks need Lele or Shaymin to run efficiently, or abilities to hit big numbers. This slows them down so you have time to Handiwork and do other shenanigans.
 
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Ok, so I recently played against this on the ladder with Volcanion. What I did was power up a baby volcanion with a fury belt and just took OHKOs. I didn't even do it that well. If I had to play that match over, my plan would be to only play that one volcanion, and just make sure energy and fury belts are attached. But overall IMO Volcanion is a bad matchup for this deck, even with poke puffs. In fact, for anyone who ever plays against this deck, ultra ball away other basics you don't want so they cannot be benched and stranded all in one go.
I didn't want to get into specific matchups for this thread, because I wanted to see how strong Quad Wobbuffet worked "as a baseline". I actually think the deck is horrid and can be very easily played against if it's identified. It's milling is so pathetically weak that it's overturned very easily. Any bit of energy recursion drains cards out of it. Any bit of card recovery is fewer cards Wobb is ahead by. And that's without even getting into KOs!
Depsite all of this, I've seen the deck played a couple of times, and I also heard the deck performed remarkably well at the NA Internationals. I wanted to dig deeper into it, out of curiosity more than anything else.

In terms of your math, I think for what you saw, you got it right, but what you didn't see really matters. Your opponent still has to get set up. This means they might have to play a Sycamore (-7 to them), or a N (-1 to them). And the ability lock an be big, as some decks need Lele or Shaymin to run efficiently, or abilities to hit big numbers. This slows them down so you have time to Handiwork and do other shenanigans.
This, I believe, is the biggest misconception of the matchup. Somebody playing against Quad Wobb does not need to set up quickly or efficiently. Thanks to N and VS Seeker, they have virtually an infinite amount of time. Even after all TRH, they should still have about 30 cards in deck and hand. They're under no pressure at all, since they're not going to be KO'd and they're not going to be milled out of nowhere since Quad Wobb's mill is limited. There is no reason to try to KO Wobbuffet "as quickly as possible", as it's the same result if they KO one on turn 10 as turn 30. The pressure's entirely on Quad Wobb to remove as much energy as they can and get lucky enough on coinflips. Quite literally the only reason you would want to draw cards against Quad Wobb is if they're stumbling on Energy removal cards, and if they are you're already at an advantage.
Also of note, N is not -1, but rather +/-0, as although the person playing N loses a card from playing it, the opponent becomes the first person to Draw a card for their turn.

One thing I did forget, was the possibility of milling Energy cards with TRH, making it much easier for Quad Wobb to keep up with Energy removal. With 12 cards being Energy and 20 discarded cards, that would be about 4 Energy cards discarded with it. That's actually a pretty significant improvement on Wobb winning.
 
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