The Pokemon Market 10 years from now... Save your boxes and ultra rares?

MrSquarepants

MrSquarepants

Heavenly Illusion Star
Member
Warning: Intro to thread has a long life story of missing old cards. If you're not interested in reading an old man's cranky story don't open the spoiler.

You know it is a real shame that I missed out on some great sets 5-10 years ago... such as Neo Revelation, Neo Destiny, Expedition, Aquapolis, Skyridge, Team Rocket Returns, Unseen Forces, Secret Wonders (eh well technically I can still get boxes for not a bad price) eh well you get the point... A lot these boxes I'm looking for cost well over 300$-800$... just two years ago or so I could have had these for 100$ or so. But I was trying to keep up with the new sets and my urge to get packs on the spot kicked up. Eventually I didn't like the new cards and wanted to see how much had I missed out. I figured eh, a couple of sets, I'll just buy some boxes and I'm good. Go online and see how much the boxes cost. Refused to buy and then started buying singles. Singles all listed as "mint, near mint" come looking annoyingly played or scratched. Decides to cave in a buy boxes. Boxes disappear. GRRR! Then they do come and are listed at even MORE expensive prices! Well a few came up as decent priced expensive boxes... if you can call 300$+ decent... so yeah I've been buying some old boxes on eBay and loose packs. Loose packs are pretty terrible by the way, it seems like the majority are weighed and they'll weigh a holo pack so you won't feel so bad.

And this was just because they knew when to time to sell their boxes... Smart sellers. I wish I could go back 10 years from and buy 100 1st edition base booster boxes and sell them from 750$. Could go for 1,000 but not many people are that crazy and have money to burn.

ANYWAY... the point of this thread... is what do you think? Do you think 10 years from now... the sets from HGSS to Black and White Next Destinies will be extremely valuable? When it's all out of prints and all the boxes in the world are getting opened? Think Next Destinies could be the Unseen Forces box in 2024? Should we all just hold onto to some of these puppies in case we can make a small fortune a decade from now or will Pokemon at that point will be done and outcasted by some other franchise?
 
Well... if you want to make profit from buying and selling, there are other, much, much better products to invest into (like clocks, cameras, many things antique for example). Pokémon cards... the popularity in say 10 years is, in the end, very unpredictable while I would predict that the value will be pretty low and if you make profit it's probably not enough to be worth the wait. This would be an extremely slow way to make profit with a high risk. You know, there are so many different Pokémon products anyway, and you target audience will be very limited.

It's better than playing Lotto but there are other much better alternatives.
 
With inflation, what are you really making?

Pokemon TCG is much more popular now than it was when it originated, and there are most likely more boxes being made than before.
 
I am probably gonna be flamed for saying this but, what if pokemon was out of buisness by then?
 
Right now there is no end in sight for Pokémon, and I don't see why there would be in ten years. The games are doing extremely well right now, and there is no reason to think that the franchise will suddenly lose all of its avid fans AND fail to get new people into it's spell.

"Will there be a 5th generation of Pokemon and will the show keep continuing? He laughed even harder and said of course. Pokemon will continue for many generations to come, and as he made it sound, probably forever." - source

Sums it up pretty nicely, if you can say so. Just look at Mario, Zelda, etc.
 
Teal said:
Well... if you want to make profit from buying and selling, there are other, much, much better products to invest into (like clocks, cameras, many things antique for example). Pokémon cards... the popularity in say 10 years is, in the end, very unpredictable while I would predict that the value will be pretty low and if you make profit it's probably not enough to be worth the wait. This would be an extremely slow way to make profit with a high risk. You know, there are so many different Pokémon products anyway, and you target audience will be very limited.

It's better than playing Lotto but there are other much better alternatives.
Click to expand...

Oh yea I forgot you could do that with other, more valuable antiques... hahaha now there's an idea.

Come to think of it 10 years for an extra 200$ in your pocket is pretty bad. It'll be worse if you buy a case intending to sell it for a "fortune" several years only to find that the boxes now are probably more mass produced so 10 years from now, There might be clearance for boxes sometime in the future.

Blowout Cards, Troll and Toad, Pokeorder could all be like "clearance sale boxes for 20% off!!!" And then someone buys a bunch of them but then waits like 2 years... "Okay... 12 years I got like 10 boxes to sell... hmm... one bid only went up to 60$... I lost money on that... it's okay I still have 9..."

2 years later "Man too many people are still selling boxes how come there's so many?!?!"

3 years later "Ugh... I got too much on my mind to bother with my boxes but let's see how much... 120$... YAAAAAAY..." And then!!!

"Okay... it's been 20 years since these boxes have been on my shelf, my kids already opened some without my permission but it's okay I still have 5 left!!! ...oh yay it's worth about 50$... you know what f**k this I'll just open them." 5 years after that. "I'm the only guy who has these boxes left! 400$ for Next Destinies! Is it possible for a MEWTWO EX FULL ART?!?" then the guy who was trying to be patient ends up realizing he wasted all his time and money is likely to totally go insane. Lmao
 
Also, it is important to consider your financial situation.

When I was ten, I got $100 for my birthday from my parents and grandparents combined each year, and could only afford one booster box a year. Now, being 16, and holding a part time job, it isn't as big of a deal.

In ten years, will you need for the money as much as you do now?
 
Drose said:
With inflation, what are you really making?

Pokemon TCG is much more popular now than it was when it originated, and there are most likely more boxes being made than before.
Click to expand...

What? Are you serious about this? Pokemon is not even close to as popular as it was when it first came out. Ask anybody who played back in the late 90s. Literally almost every kid like Pokemon and had Pokemon cards. There is a reason that base-neo bulk is worth less than BLW-on. There is so much of it. I don't see Pokemon ever being as popular as it first was. Pokemon was one of the biggest fads for kids ever
 
Drose said:
Also, it is important to consider your financial situation.

When I was ten, I got $100 for my birthday from my parents and grandparents combined each year, and could only afford one booster box a year. Now, being 16, and holding a part time job, it isn't as big of a deal.

In ten years, will you need for the money as much as you do now?
Click to expand...

In 10 years I certainly hope not. ... I'd like to get outta jobs that only pay enough to cover bills and then some.

Hmm... I wonder if in 10 years I'll even be interested in Pokemon by then... didn't think about that yet. I've already lost interest in the new sets and am trying to go back in the past to buy cards that I couldn't back then. Sometimes people grow outta things even though there's a trace of sentimentality left so I'll probably keep my old, old cards from 2000. Maybe those would be worth something but I probably wouldn't want to sell those.
 
exdarkrai01 said:
Drose said:
With inflation, what are you really making?

Pokemon TCG is much more popular now than it was when it originated, and there are most likely more boxes being made than before.
Click to expand...

What? Are you serious about this? Pokemon is not even close to as popular as it was when it first came out. Ask anybody who played back in the late 90s. Literally almost every kid like Pokemon and had Pokemon cards. There is a reason that base-neo bulk is worth less than BLW-on. There is so much of it. I don't see Pokemon ever being as popular as it first was. Pokemon was one of the biggest fads for kids ever
Click to expand...

I don't think so. Nationals tournament last year was the largest tournament by far, ever, iirc. Maybe way back when there were more casual players, but, as far as I know in the competative aspect it is the largest it has ever been.
 
You are talking about speculating. Speculating is a risk/reward proposition. If you invest $100 in a box today, ten years from now you may double your money. You may break even. You still have to sell to see return. Are you better speculating on Pokémon versus an ETF? I would go with an ETF.
 
I forgot to add something.

When you buy something to make a profit you have to know that you will (most probably) be able to sell it right now for as much as you paid. You should also know that the value will (most probably) not go down. Basically, if you buy to sell, you have to look for bargains. It is also a plus if you like that product so if you - for some reason - can't sell it, you don't mind keeping it. But that's optional. Buying something to sell in ten years works in some cases, but in those cases it's good if you get it "for free".

Here is an example: about two years ago I bought three of these for 2€/each (at a local convention). I know that I can easily sell them away for at least 2€/each at any time, and I could also sell one right away for 6€+. That would make the other two "free". Now I could keep one for myself, and keep the other for a time when I get even more money for it. And even if nobody buys them it's something that I think is "sweet" so I wouldn't mind keeping them.
The item is cheap and the reward is not big, but you get the picture.
 
Honestly, I don't think we will see current boxes at Base Set- Neo prices.

As omanahime said, you're making speculations on what could be, rather than knowing what it will be. If you plan on doing something similar you have to have the mindset that you are very likely to lose money becuase cards are more available to players now than they were before. The player base is growing, and Pokemon is printing promos of the cards in high demand to make them available to almost everyone.

A great example in my opinion is Mewtwo EX. Those things sold for $65-$75 a piece, and the prices stayed around the same until they announced the tin promos. People were practically begging to take them off their hands because the market for them would no longer be there, and the ones that bought them at high prices ate it and took a huge loss.


Another thing when buying boxes, is that you CAN make your money back and break even. I've done this every time I've bought a box of the newest set, and is now how I buy, sell, and trade cards here and on other websites. I invested in ONE box, and have made money off that one box to continue to buy new ones, and still have a fairly good pool of cards to play with for myself. With a little bit of luck, you can pull the "money cards" and make your money back plus profit very easily.

Another example, Keldeo EX;

In short, the card got a lot of hype, lived up to it for the most part, and prices were between $24-$45. (eBay BIN completed listings)
Luckily, I sold my full art, regular EX, and made $70 off of them before they announced the tin promo, which almost covers what I spent on the box.

What I'm trying to say is, if you want to make money with this game, you have to keep up with all of the new and good cards, as well as staying on the hustle. The market is definitely there, you just have to do some work.
 
I think you have a point... It makes sense since Wizards didn't produce as much boxes as Pokemon International so it'd be a long, long time before these were "rare". If I wanted to get a head start I'd should pick some of the Diamond and Pearl sets or HGSS but honestly I don't think I have the patience and I'd end up opening the box. :p I just wanted to see what ya'll experts were thinking.

Haha didn't know they were making a promo for Keldeo. So glad I sold my 3 full arts then. I got rid of them for like 35$ a piece, The thing with marketing boxes is that I don't know how to effectively sell commons and uncommons or the the useless holos or reverse holos. Selling them a piece is hard as they're only about .50 to 1$ each. Unless they're really playable. Marketing off a box sounds like a smart idea but I'm not sure how to go about it since I'd want to keep some of the Ultra rares.
 
Teal said:
I forgot to add something.

When you buy something to make a profit you have to know that you will (most probably) be able to sell it right now for as much as you paid. You should also know that the value will (most probably) not go down. Basically, if you buy to sell, you have to look for bargains. It is also a plus if you like that product so if you - for some reason - can't sell it, you don't mind keeping it. But that's optional. Buying something to sell in ten years works in some cases, but in those cases it's good if you get it "for free".

Here is an example: about two years ago I bought three of these for 2€/each (at a local convention). I know that I can easily sell them away for at least 2€/each at any time, and I could also sell one right away for 6€+. That would make the other two "free". Now I could keep one for myself, and keep the other for a time when I get even more money for it. And even if nobody buys them it's something that I think is "sweet" so I wouldn't mind keeping them.
The item is cheap and the reward is not big, but you get the picture.
Click to expand...


Totally agree with this post! Here in Sweden we have a internet store that apperently not many Swedish ebayers don't seam to know about, since I've seen them bidding way higher for stuff than what they go for on the store.

So I noticed that they only had a few old school boosters like Gym Heroes and Neo Discovery left for 49SEK (standard price for new packs here in Sweden), while the same packs went for 65-90SEK on Swedish Ebay. So I bought them since I know this store won't restock their old school stuff and it was likely my last chance to get it so cheap. Even if I wasn't interested in opening all the packs, I could still make profit of some of the packs, and that way minimize the money I spend of the boosters I kept/opened.

Í collect pokémon because I think its fun, I'm not expecting to make any profit. But I do try to minimize the money I spend on pokémon every month by making some smart deals, like one time I when I was ordering from TrollandToad I bought some old promo card for 0,25-0,4 dollars and sold them 3-4 dollars in Sweden abusing the fact that they were much harder to get here in good condition..
 
Videoland said:
Teal said:
I forgot to add something.

When you buy something to make a profit you have to know that you will (most probably) be able to sell it right now for as much as you paid. You should also know that the value will (most probably) not go down. Basically, if you buy to sell, you have to look for bargains. It is also a plus if you like that product so if you - for some reason - can't sell it, you don't mind keeping it. But that's optional. Buying something to sell in ten years works in some cases, but in those cases it's good if you get it "for free".

Here is an example: about two years ago I bought three of these for 2€/each (at a local convention). I know that I can easily sell them away for at least 2€/each at any time, and I could also sell one right away for 6€+. That would make the other two "free". Now I could keep one for myself, and keep the other for a time when I get even more money for it. And even if nobody buys them it's something that I think is "sweet" so I wouldn't mind keeping them.
The item is cheap and the reward is not big, but you get the picture.
Click to expand...


Totally agree with this post! Here in Sweden we have a internet store that apperently not many Swedish ebayers don't seam to know about, since I've seen them bidding way higher for stuff than what they go for on the store.

So I noticed that they only had a few old school boosters like Gym Heroes and Neo Discovery left for 49SEK (standard price for new packs here in Sweden), while the same packs went for 65-90SEK on Swedish Ebay. So I bought them since I know this store won't restock their old school stuff and it was likely my last chance to get it so cheap. Even if I wasn't interested in opening all the packs, I could still make profit of some of the packs, and that way minimize the money I spend of the boosters I kept/opened.

Í collect pokémon because I think its fun, I'm not expecting to make any profit. But I do try to minimize the money I spend on pokémon every month by making some smart deals, like one time I when I was ordering from TrollandToad I bought some old promo card for 0,25-0,4 dollars and sold them 3-4 dollars in Sweden abusing the fact that they were much harder to get here in good condition..
Click to expand...

I went back and read the OP, and it gave me the urge to buy a box of next destinies since it featured Mewtwo EX and the full art card is pretty BA..
 
I can imagine the old boxes will always go up in value. Not only do people purchase them for pack-fresh cards, but people also collect (and hoard) sealed boxes. I happen to know a guy who has a case of 1st ED Neo Destiny with no intentions of selling anytime soon. It would be a very long time before you make any money off a case of Next Destinies. In the 5 years it takes for that to double in value, you could have worked a week and generated the same net gain. You should check out the price on EX PK boxes to see an example of what I mean. Those are nearly 5 years old now and sell around $150 or less.
 
I'd find it really hard to believe that years from now, Pokémon will cease to be popular. Taking other memorabilia for example spider man stuff, star wars stuff or baseball cards....they've all had their share of decline since they last started. But there are still expensive collectibles to buy for all three mentioned here. I know of a sealed Spider Man doll that goes for $3k. So as long as the Pokémon company keeps advertising them to new people, they will still be worth a dime or two in the future. As for what cards to invest in, that's another subject.

The 1st edition base set, is the 1st edition base set. End of discussion :). Then there was the Jungle, Fossil and Second edition which were not that popular - compared to the 1st edition base set. However Pokémon revived the game when they launched the Neo cards, which are really expensive to buy and own unlike the second edition set. So in the end, its a gamble just like any other investment. My opinion would be not to invest in booster packs and boxes, unless you are a big Pokémon collector and would appreciate them more for what they are unlike for what they're worth.

Good thing I bought a load of 1st edition boxes and booster packs way back when I was a kid ;) (actually my mum had bought them for me and hid them away from me for years haha cause I was addicted to the game).
 
Did some more searching for cheap old boxes. Hah! 400$ for a Skyridge box instead of 800$. C'mon now really? Ugggh... Man they used to be so cheap too. Around 50-80$. Then again that makes them easier to hoard. I so wish I could go back in time to buy them! I think it'll be a pretty long time before these boxes hit a crazy value. Since theres so many and it's not as affordable it could take 20 years. Meanwhile base-Skyridge will prolly start hitting 1,000$. Possibly I'm no expert. Lucky janks. Well I'm gonna wrap up the old sets then and finish with Plasma Storm. Then maybe I'll just buy singles onwards.
 
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