RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
Unvote: glaceon
Unvote: glaceon
Finished Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Rockets Win
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RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
Okay, let's see who's left.
First off, the number of wolves remaining. It has to be 3 or less. If it were 4, that means the wolves would win, as it is standard fare for the wolves' win condition to be greater than or equal to 50% of the remaining players. So that means there's 1, 2, or 3. Four wolves are dead already, meaning there's either 5, 6, or 7 total. I get the feeling it's 6 mostly because it's a round number, but that really isn't important right now.
I am still wary of Zyflair and HypnoticLuxray for reasons I've said already, but honestly, who has the most chance of being a wolf? We have to think it over; this is vital. One mis-step and the game could very well be over.
Let me run a few numbers in my head to make sure how the game will turn out.
(I'm going to assume for each day that a townie is accidentally lynched, and thus give the numbers for the minimum number of days for the wolves to win.)
If there's 4 left:
There can't be 4 left. That would make the current status 4-4, which is an auto-win. But clearly the game is still going, so there's less than 4.
If there's 3 left:
Current status 3-5. We lynch a townie and bring it to 3-4. The night kill brings it to 3-3.
Basically, if there are 3 wolves and a townie is lynched today, it's an automatic loss for the town.
Odds of lynching one of 3 wolves today at completely random selection: 37.5%
If there's 2 left:
Current status 2-6. We lynch a townie and bring it to 2-5. The night kill brings it to 2-4.
The next day if a townie is lynched again, it is brought to 2-3 and then 2-2.
If there are 2 wolves remaining, lynching 2 townies in the next 2 days makes the town lose.
Odds of lynching one of 2 wolves today at completely random selection: 25%
If there's 1 left:
Current status 1-7. This is probably the most unlikely, but it's also going to be the most difficult to stop - since the wolf is going to be extremely hard to find. A townie lynch brings it to 1-6, then night kill makes it 1-5. And so on.
If there's only 1 wolf left, the only way for the town to lose is to lynch townies on the next 3 days.
Odds of lynching the one and only wolf today at completely random selection: 12.5%
There is also the option of No Lynch, which may slow down the wolves' path to victory. However at this point in time, with so few people, I don't believe doing that is very wise. If you guys want, however, I can run some No Lynch numbers.
~~~~~
A bunch of numbers and statistics thrown together, I know. However, I do want you guys to understand the gravity of the situation. We cannot just go after a random person and hope that person turns out to be a wolf. It is far too late in the game to just go by guesswork alone. We need to be very sure that we pick the right person to lynch.
I have an idea. How about we each put our nominations forward for who might be a wolf, and see who might be the most likely suspect? If multiple people suspect the same person, that might be a good course of action. I've already said mine, so I can start the chart off:
Suspicions
Zyflair:
Teapot:
DNA: [Zyflair, HypnoticLuxray]
Glaceon:
HypnoticLuxray:
Cinesra:
safariblade:
doublenikesocks:
Eevee:
Riskbreakers:
There's 10 of us, so first let's take this idea and see where it goes. Odds are at least one person is going to come out as more suspicious than the rest.
Okay, let's see who's left.
Glaceon is confirmed townie. DNS is basically confirmed townie. So we can scratch both of them off of the hit list. That leaves 8 of us: Zyflair, Teapot, myself, HypnoticLuxray, Cinesra, safariblade, Eevee, and Riskbreakers.DNA said:
First off, the number of wolves remaining. It has to be 3 or less. If it were 4, that means the wolves would win, as it is standard fare for the wolves' win condition to be greater than or equal to 50% of the remaining players. So that means there's 1, 2, or 3. Four wolves are dead already, meaning there's either 5, 6, or 7 total. I get the feeling it's 6 mostly because it's a round number, but that really isn't important right now.
I am still wary of Zyflair and HypnoticLuxray for reasons I've said already, but honestly, who has the most chance of being a wolf? We have to think it over; this is vital. One mis-step and the game could very well be over.
Let me run a few numbers in my head to make sure how the game will turn out.
(I'm going to assume for each day that a townie is accidentally lynched, and thus give the numbers for the minimum number of days for the wolves to win.)
If there's 4 left:
There can't be 4 left. That would make the current status 4-4, which is an auto-win. But clearly the game is still going, so there's less than 4.
If there's 3 left:
Current status 3-5. We lynch a townie and bring it to 3-4. The night kill brings it to 3-3.
Basically, if there are 3 wolves and a townie is lynched today, it's an automatic loss for the town.
Odds of lynching one of 3 wolves today at completely random selection: 37.5%
If there's 2 left:
Current status 2-6. We lynch a townie and bring it to 2-5. The night kill brings it to 2-4.
The next day if a townie is lynched again, it is brought to 2-3 and then 2-2.
If there are 2 wolves remaining, lynching 2 townies in the next 2 days makes the town lose.
Odds of lynching one of 2 wolves today at completely random selection: 25%
If there's 1 left:
Current status 1-7. This is probably the most unlikely, but it's also going to be the most difficult to stop - since the wolf is going to be extremely hard to find. A townie lynch brings it to 1-6, then night kill makes it 1-5. And so on.
If there's only 1 wolf left, the only way for the town to lose is to lynch townies on the next 3 days.
Odds of lynching the one and only wolf today at completely random selection: 12.5%
There is also the option of No Lynch, which may slow down the wolves' path to victory. However at this point in time, with so few people, I don't believe doing that is very wise. If you guys want, however, I can run some No Lynch numbers.
~~~~~
A bunch of numbers and statistics thrown together, I know. However, I do want you guys to understand the gravity of the situation. We cannot just go after a random person and hope that person turns out to be a wolf. It is far too late in the game to just go by guesswork alone. We need to be very sure that we pick the right person to lynch.
I have an idea. How about we each put our nominations forward for who might be a wolf, and see who might be the most likely suspect? If multiple people suspect the same person, that might be a good course of action. I've already said mine, so I can start the chart off:
Suspicions
Zyflair:
Teapot:
DNA: [Zyflair, HypnoticLuxray]
Glaceon:
HypnoticLuxray:
Cinesra:
safariblade:
doublenikesocks:
Eevee:
Riskbreakers:
There's 10 of us, so first let's take this idea and see where it goes. Odds are at least one person is going to come out as more suspicious than the rest.
RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
DNA, there are ten people, not eight. It's just that eight aren't cleared from suspicion.
But if we're going by this, I'm suspecting Eevee and Cinesra
DNA, there are ten people, not eight. It's just that eight aren't cleared from suspicion.
But if we're going by this, I'm suspecting Eevee and Cinesra
RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
I put 10 people on the suspicions chart because there's 10 still alive. I'm putting that person's suspicions next to that person's name. I think you were reading the chart backwards.
Suspicions
Zyflair: [Eevee, Cinesra]
Teapot:
DNA: [Zyflair, HypnoticLuxray]
Glaceon:
HypnoticLuxray:
Cinesra:[Zyflair]
safariblade:
doublenikesocks:
Eevee:
Riskbreakers:
I put 10 people on the suspicions chart because there's 10 still alive. I'm putting that person's suspicions next to that person's name. I think you were reading the chart backwards.
Suspicions
Zyflair: [Eevee, Cinesra]
Teapot:
DNA: [Zyflair, HypnoticLuxray]
Glaceon:
HypnoticLuxray:
Cinesra:
safariblade:
doublenikesocks:
Eevee:
Riskbreakers:
RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
Hmm... Riskbreakers is an alive game host, that's suspicious.
Safari's very inactive and shallow, which can be suspicious.
Hmm... Riskbreakers is an alive game host, that's suspicious.
Safari's very inactive and shallow, which can be suspicious.
RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
Inb4 I get ninja'd again
DNA, you said that there can't be 4 wolves left because that would be 50%. This is wrong because there are 10 players, not 8. You left out the two you said were clear, Glaceon and DNS.
Inb4 I get ninja'd again
DNA, you said that there can't be 4 wolves left because that would be 50%. This is wrong because there are 10 players, not 8. You left out the two you said were clear, Glaceon and DNS.
RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
Yeah if there are 10 left then how would it be 4-4?
Yeah if there are 10 left then how would it be 4-4?
RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
Oh dang, I counted wrong. You're right, there are 10 left. I'm clearly not thinking.
Give me a while and I'll rework the numbers.
Oh dang, I counted wrong. You're right, there are 10 left. I'm clearly not thinking.
Give me a while and I'll rework the numbers.
RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
Okay, so we know there can't be 5 left. That means 4 left is possible. And that's totally feasible, since that would be 8 out of 32 players, or 25% of the game. But I just like round numbers, that's all.
Okay, so we know there can't be 5 left. That means 4 left is possible. And that's totally feasible, since that would be 8 out of 32 players, or 25% of the game. But I just like round numbers, that's all.
Does anyone want No Lynch numbers, though?
RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
Game hosts usually are killed Night 1. This one wasn't.
Zyflair said:
Game hosts usually are killed Night 1. This one wasn't.
RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
Suspicions
Zyflair: [Eevee, Cinesra]
Teapot:
DNA: [Zyflair, HypnoticLuxray]
Glaceon: [safariblade > Zyflair, Riskbreakers]
HypnoticLuxray: [Riskbreakers, safariblade]
Cinesra:
safariblade:
doublenikesocks:
Eevee:
Riskbreakers:
Suspicions
Zyflair: [Eevee, Cinesra]
Teapot:
DNA: [Zyflair, HypnoticLuxray]
Glaceon: [safariblade > Zyflair, Riskbreakers]
HypnoticLuxray: [Riskbreakers, safariblade]
Cinesra:
safariblade:
doublenikesocks:
Eevee:
Riskbreakers:
RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
My suspicions mimmick Glaceon's, but with Zyflair > Safari
My suspicions mimmick Glaceon's, but with Zyflair > Safari
RE: Werewolf XII: Seven Days of Terror - Team Rocket's Revenge. Day 9 ends June 15, 2012, at 9 AM CST / 10 PM RST
Suspicions
Zyflair: [Eevee, Cinesra]
Teapot:
DNA: [Zyflair, HypnoticLuxray]
Glaceon: [safariblade > Zyflair, Riskbreakers]
HypnoticLuxray: [Riskbreakers, safariblade]
Cinesra:
safariblade: [Zyflair > safariblade, Riskbreakers]
doublenikesocks:
Eevee: [safariblade, HypnoticLuxray]
Riskbreakers:
So far it looks like Safariblade and Zyflair appear to be the most suspicious for the town.
Suspicions
Zyflair: [Eevee, Cinesra]
Teapot:
DNA: [Zyflair, HypnoticLuxray]
Glaceon: [safariblade > Zyflair, Riskbreakers]
HypnoticLuxray: [Riskbreakers, safariblade]
Cinesra:
safariblade: [Zyflair > safariblade, Riskbreakers]
doublenikesocks:
Eevee: [safariblade, HypnoticLuxray]
Riskbreakers:
So far it looks like Safariblade and Zyflair appear to be the most suspicious for the town.
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