A lot of experience doesn't mean I'm skilled. It just means I've killed off a bunch more townies than the new players.
Finished Werewolf XXVII: Revelation
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A lot of experience doesn't mean I'm skilled. It just means I've killed off a bunch more townies than the new players.
Alright, since it's apparently not sinking into your head, let me explain, point by point, why lynching Luis is a bad idea.
1) Luis is very likely innocent. There is a very small chance he could be scum buddies with Celever and the two of them concocted some crazy plot, however, it is incredibly unlikely. If a scum team was going to put so much on the line to make some crazy ass ballsy move like this, simply put, it would have been a better plot. One such example of a better plan would have involved one of Luis's scan targets being scum, and then us lynching the scum, proving Luis's ability. Between Celever and Luis and the rest of the scum team they could have put together something much more useful than this. The much more logical conclusion is that Luis is probably innocent and his ability is exactly what it says. Of course, we can't say that with 100% certainty because...
2) Luis is not 100% confirmed innocent, and neither are his scans, but this does not automatically make him good lynching material. You know who else is not 100% confirmed innocent? Every single other person still alive in this game.
3) Just because Luis claims to have used his one-shot power up, this does not mean that he is a sacrificial lam that we can lynch without recourse because he has no more powers. Luis is a established, active, and valuable player. He could also be a SW or have an additional ability that evolves based on timer that he hasn't shared to make him less of a target by the mafia. But even if he doesn't and he's fully vanilla, that still doesn't mean that he's now worthless for the town, nor are any other vanilla townies that may or may not exist. We should not be willing to sacrifice someone just because they don't have power roles. Instead...
4) We should only lynch people we think are mafia. This one is important. Unless we have vigs in our roster somewhere (and those vigs are smart), lynching is our only way to take care of the mafia team. A mislynch for us is a free kill for them. We do get some additional info from night actions, but it's still a net loss. The only people who should want to lynch probable innocents are scum and possibly Indies. If anyone has legitimate reasons to actually think that Luis is actually a member of the scum team (and not just "oh, well, it's technically possible he's scum" (see #2), or "we wouldn't be losing much if he's vanilla" (see #3), or "we'd be confirming innocents with his death" (see #5)), then tell us what those reasons are straight up. And speaking of #5...
5) 100% confirmed innocents is practically useless information at this stage of the game, and certainly not worth mislynching an innocent over. Look at it from a practical perspective. What actually does 100% confirming an innocent do for us? Not a whole lot. No out-of-thread communication in this game, so we can't use them as information funnels, which is the usual good use for a confirmed inno. We can trust everything they say, more or less, but that doesn't suddenly make them smarter or better scum-hunters, so that doesn't mean we should just follow along with them. We know not to lynch them, but specifically knowing not to lynch 2 people out of 20 doesn't actually even the odds out very much, especially when those people should be more or less discounted for lynching anyway unless we have good reason to suspect them, thanks to #1. We need to focus on finding scum (and the Indie) not finding innos.
I actually am going to ##unvote, vote: Jeremy because I think his jumping on the Luis lynch is more suspicious. Not only did he bandwagon on, but he added a bunch of BS reasoning and tried to turn it into a black-and-white "we either lynch Luis or lynch a random" situation, which is scummy as hell.
Oh, and speaking of lynching randoms... it actually probably would be a smarter idea to lynch a random rather than lynching Luis. The actual odds of Luis and Celever performing some ballsy scum-buddy move is ridiculously low but scum team ratio is, what, 1 in 4? 1 in 5? That's a 20-25% chance of hitting mafia just by pulling a name out of a hat, probably higher at this point since we've had a couple inno deaths not.
1) Luis is very likely innocent. There is a very small chance he could be scum buddies with Celever and the two of them concocted some crazy plot, however, it is incredibly unlikely. If a scum team was going to put so much on the line to make some crazy ass ballsy move like this, simply put, it would have been a better plot. One such example of a better plan would have involved one of Luis's scan targets being scum, and then us lynching the scum, proving Luis's ability. Between Celever and Luis and the rest of the scum team they could have put together something much more useful than this. The much more logical conclusion is that Luis is probably innocent and his ability is exactly what it says. Of course, we can't say that with 100% certainty because...
2) Luis is not 100% confirmed innocent, and neither are his scans, but this does not automatically make him good lynching material. You know who else is not 100% confirmed innocent? Every single other person still alive in this game.
3) Just because Luis claims to have used his one-shot power up, this does not mean that he is a sacrificial lam that we can lynch without recourse because he has no more powers. Luis is a established, active, and valuable player. He could also be a SW or have an additional ability that evolves based on timer that he hasn't shared to make him less of a target by the mafia. But even if he doesn't and he's fully vanilla, that still doesn't mean that he's now worthless for the town, nor are any other vanilla townies that may or may not exist. We should not be willing to sacrifice someone just because they don't have power roles. Instead...
4) We should only lynch people we think are mafia. This one is important. Unless we have vigs in our roster somewhere (and those vigs are smart), lynching is our only way to take care of the mafia team. A mislynch for us is a free kill for them. We do get some additional info from night actions, but it's still a net loss. The only people who should want to lynch probable innocents are scum and possibly Indies. If anyone has legitimate reasons to actually think that Luis is actually a member of the scum team (and not just "oh, well, it's technically possible he's scum" (see #2), or "we wouldn't be losing much if he's vanilla" (see #3), or "we'd be confirming innocents with his death" (see #5)), then tell us what those reasons are straight up. And speaking of #5...
5) 100% confirmed innocents is practically useless information at this stage of the game, and certainly not worth mislynching an innocent over. Look at it from a practical perspective. What actually does 100% confirming an innocent do for us? Not a whole lot. No out-of-thread communication in this game, so we can't use them as information funnels, which is the usual good use for a confirmed inno. We can trust everything they say, more or less, but that doesn't suddenly make them smarter or better scum-hunters, so that doesn't mean we should just follow along with them. We know not to lynch them, but specifically knowing not to lynch 2 people out of 20 doesn't actually even the odds out very much, especially when those people should be more or less discounted for lynching anyway unless we have good reason to suspect them, thanks to #1. We need to focus on finding scum (and the Indie) not finding innos.
I actually am going to ##unvote, vote: Jeremy because I think his jumping on the Luis lynch is more suspicious. Not only did he bandwagon on, but he added a bunch of BS reasoning and tried to turn it into a black-and-white "we either lynch Luis or lynch a random" situation, which is scummy as hell.
Oh, and speaking of lynching randoms... it actually probably would be a smarter idea to lynch a random rather than lynching Luis. The actual odds of Luis and Celever performing some ballsy scum-buddy move is ridiculously low but scum team ratio is, what, 1 in 4? 1 in 5? That's a 20-25% chance of hitting mafia just by pulling a name out of a hat, probably higher at this point since we've had a couple inno deaths not.
Speaking of that, I might be able to help finding scum with both of my abilities. I'm not sure if I should post what they do or what to do really, because I don't want to get lynched nor killed because of it, but I want to help finding scum, and I already am pretty sure I know one who is.
If you think you found one, then by all means out then. Make them defend themselves. If you think its worth being killed over then don't out how you got the information.
Adding to my last post. By saying "I think I got one" now tells the wolves that you are a good NK target, regardless of if you found one of them or not. And its better to get your evidence out now, in the event of being NK'd.
Thanks for the tips!
The one I suspect is a scum is Chaos Jackal. One of my abilities let's me know who voted for which person.
Here's the ability:
Active Ability: Watch
Once a night you may PM me the name of a player. If you do, you may not use any other Active Abilities in the same night. You will learn who targeted that player during that night. (Devolves when the timer hits 50)
The person I pm'd was Luctini, since he (supposedly) is a Star Witness, and Chaos Jackal was the only one who had voted for him.
1-2) I know that every single living player here is not 100% townie. I am saying that we have an option to confirm 100% 2 of them without lynching them. You really want to see people voting for bb and Celever if they will say something really scummy? 2 less players to consider scums is a big advantage. Saves us a valuable time which is also a major factor in this game.
3) Every single player here can be SW. Luis might have another useful ability after that amazing ability. So do others. Random or Luis. The difference is that we can confirm 2 players town instead of one dead town with Luis.
4-5) You are right. These are good points and they are really making me having second thoughts. Maybe I'm doing something that usually should not be done but right now it feels right to do it since it is not only for confirming these 2 players but also to get more and more information with each reaction for this idea and each post with no reference to this idea. I hope that the townies that are experienced in this game can find my actions helpful.
Scum often get on the bandwagon of their own team-mates when it's clear they are going to be lynched to earn credibility within the town so it is entirely feasible that a potential scum team-mate of Celever could vote for his lynch (even though I doubt Celever is scum at the moment).
Again, you say that I'm convinced about someone being town (in this case Luis), yet I acknowledged earlier that he may not be:
Although it is possible that Luis is lying and is working with Celever and bbninjas, I think it is unlikely due to the risks involved with such a strategy. If one of them were to die and was revealed as being scum then the other two would instantly come under suspicion. It's just so risky with so many down-sides that I don't see anyone coming up with that strategy, let alone being bold enough to use it.
Isn't that just straight up tells us Chaos Jackal is scum? Or am I not reading it right?
I guess it does, I just wasn't completely sure myself
Also I have to go to bed, so I won't be able to answer for a while!
@steffenka wdym "he was the only one who voted for him"?
Thanks for that post, Athena, really helpful.
Seriously, guys, my bandwagon can't be named any more properly. SM, as all above me have said, the "We're scum and trying to hide" plan it's absolutely dreadful. Not only is it risky, it would just never work it's ridiculous. Would it be a good punch line that we all were scum? Well, of course it would be interesting, but that's not happening. Let me tell you how it's going to happen: you lynch me and I flip town; then the scum take the kill on one of those 2 I cleared and now we're down 2 townies; where we could have easily taken one of the scum team or even the indie with a lot of luck.
@PMJ, can we get a vote count soon, please?
On the other hand, we now have evidence that CJ targeted Luctini last night. I can only think of 2 scenarios, so, care to explain, Jackal?
@bbninjas, probably targeted? IDK, it's what I get.
Seriously, guys, my bandwagon can't be named any more properly. SM, as all above me have said, the "We're scum and trying to hide" plan it's absolutely dreadful. Not only is it risky, it would just never work it's ridiculous. Would it be a good punch line that we all were scum? Well, of course it would be interesting, but that's not happening. Let me tell you how it's going to happen: you lynch me and I flip town; then the scum take the kill on one of those 2 I cleared and now we're down 2 townies; where we could have easily taken one of the scum team or even the indie with a lot of luck.
@PMJ, can we get a vote count soon, please?
On the other hand, we now have evidence that CJ targeted Luctini last night. I can only think of 2 scenarios, so, care to explain, Jackal?
@bbninjas, probably targeted? IDK, it's what I get.
Firstly, this bandwagon on Luis is quite ridiculous. Either we or scum are going to kill him at some stage, but there's no point lynching early when he is softcleared. Also, I doubt more than one scum bandwagonned on this quite so quickly if there is a list one veteran scum, as scum often like to wait a bit until bandwagoning in case they are getting caught in a trap. At least, that's what I've noticed from reading scumchats.
Secondly, I have to agree with both Celever and Athena in saying Scattered and Jeremy are acting odd, and both are on my watch list, perhaps moreso the latter. I'm going to go ##unvote ##vote: Jeremy
Thirdly, I don't think Steffenka's watch necessarily points at CJ (he could be using a positive ability on him for all we know). If CJ targeted SS, then we'd have something strange on our hands, but otherwise, I don't think the watch tells us that much.
Secondly, I have to agree with both Celever and Athena in saying Scattered and Jeremy are acting odd, and both are on my watch list, perhaps moreso the latter. I'm going to go ##unvote ##vote: Jeremy
Thirdly, I don't think Steffenka's watch necessarily points at CJ (he could be using a positive ability on him for all we know). If CJ targeted SS, then we'd have something strange on our hands, but otherwise, I don't think the watch tells us that much.
If steffenka actually meant "voted" then CJ may have a secret voting ability, which could explain why he's sorta kept his vote on a single player.Thanks for that post, Athena, really helpful.
Seriously, guys, my bandwagon can't be named any more properly. SM, as all above me have said, the "We're scum and trying to hide" plan it's absolutely dreadful. Not only is it risky, it would just never work it's ridiculous. Would it be a good punch line that we all were scum? Well, of course it would be interesting, but that's not happening. Let me tell you how it's going to happen: you lynch me and I flip town; then the scum take the kill on one of those 2 I cleared and now we're down 2 townies; where we could have easily taken one of the scum team or even the indie with a lot of luck.
@PMJ, can we get a vote count soon, please?
On the other hand, we now have evidence that CJ targeted Luctini last night. I can only think of 2 scenarios, so, care to explain, Jackal?
@bbninjas, probably targeted? IDK, it's what I get.
Oh my God Luis stop rolefishing! Dx
But yeah, I think steff means targeted. He just doesn't know all the terminology yet.
##UNVOTE:Luispipe8
We have a better lead atm (I think) so I'll unvote for now and see where it is going. In addition, I think that my idea isn't going anywhere (although I still think that it might help in the future) and other people are probably not going to vote ( and I agree with bbninjas, I don't think I've managed to trap more than possibly one scum with that fast and short voting).
We have a better lead atm (I think) so I'll unvote for now and see where it is going. In addition, I think that my idea isn't going anywhere (although I still think that it might help in the future) and other people are probably not going to vote ( and I agree with bbninjas, I don't think I've managed to trap more than possibly one scum with that fast and short voting).
I don't think Chaos Jackal acting on Luctini makes him scum. Actually, since Luctini didn't die, it probably semi-clears CJ. CJ is probably the doc, and was acting to protect Lucini. Being a star witness is a great NK target. If CJ were scum and acted in him, it probably would have been with the NK.
I meant targeted. With CJ being the only one who voted/targeted is because if I pm a player's name, I will learn all of the who people that targeted that player are, at least to my understanding.
Um no...? I'd like to point out a few things here. Firstly, you're speculating the doctor, early, which is not actually a good thing for the scum to get in their heads. Secondly, scum have abilities, you know, that could be useful on Luctini if they find the role a bit too powerful for their liking.
Overall, this post is scummy. Lynch gogogo.
Yeah, it's targeted. Voted is different. If PMJ sayed something like "targeted" or "you saw X visiting Y", it's probably targeted.
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