Between bbninjas, simsands and now empoleon_master, I have no idea what's going on anymore.
That said, I forgot about my vote on morda soooo:
##UNVERB: mordacazir
The way I see the discussion around bbninjas and simsands, I have the easiest time believing that bbninjas is right. Occam's Razor suggests that the simplest hypothesis is often the right one, and I think bb being right is the easiest hypothesis. Otherwise I need to assume that bbninjas was lying about his result which then requires figuring out a motive why he'd lie and it's too complicated for a guy like me who's doing homework in between making Werewolf posts.
That said, I would like to know why bbninjas picked simsands as opposed to anyone else. His silence on the matter is bothering.
For what it's worth, there are lots of villainous characters with Wyvern Rider as a reclass option which is something to consider. I know it's another probability thing, but it would explain his vote count if he did get a second seal.
In terms of information, here's what I see as the outcomes:
- lynch simsands. If he flips scum, bbninjas as basically cleared
- lynch simsands. If he flips town, bbninjas is basically lynched
- lynch bbninjas. If he doesn't flip lie detector, we have no information on simsands
- lynch bbninjas. If he flips lie detector, simsands is basically lynched
I'd put my vote on simsands if he weren't so close to being lynched. But I won't so that discussion can continue without the risk of scum hammering.
That said, I forgot about my vote on morda soooo:
##UNVERB: mordacazir
The way I see the discussion around bbninjas and simsands, I have the easiest time believing that bbninjas is right. Occam's Razor suggests that the simplest hypothesis is often the right one, and I think bb being right is the easiest hypothesis. Otherwise I need to assume that bbninjas was lying about his result which then requires figuring out a motive why he'd lie and it's too complicated for a guy like me who's doing homework in between making Werewolf posts.
That said, I would like to know why bbninjas picked simsands as opposed to anyone else. His silence on the matter is bothering.
For what it's worth, there are lots of villainous characters with Wyvern Rider as a reclass option which is something to consider. I know it's another probability thing, but it would explain his vote count if he did get a second seal.
In terms of information, here's what I see as the outcomes:
- lynch simsands. If he flips scum, bbninjas as basically cleared
- lynch simsands. If he flips town, bbninjas is basically lynched
- lynch bbninjas. If he doesn't flip lie detector, we have no information on simsands
- lynch bbninjas. If he flips lie detector, simsands is basically lynched
I'd put my vote on simsands if he weren't so close to being lynched. But I won't so that discussion can continue without the risk of scum hammering.