If I did my math right... (Bet I did'int)
Because having four froakies in your deck gives you a 28 out of 60 chance to draw a froakie, and a 28 chance out of 60 to get talonflame. Which is about 50/50.
Dropping a froakie gives you a chance to instead draw a froakie 21 out of 60, which DOES...