“Prismatic Evolutions” Pull Rates Revealed, Special Illustration Rares Twice as Easy to Pull!

[Water Pokémon Master]

The pull rates for Prismatic Evolutions have been determined by our friends at TCGplayer based on 1,200 booster pack openings. This sample size is smaller than usual because this is a special set, but it still gives us a good idea of the pull rates.
At 1 in 45 packs, Special Illustration Rares are now twice as easy to pull as the last four sets. In Surging Sparks and before, they were found in roughly every 85 to 90 packs.
The last time they were this easy to pull was in Paradox Rift, where they were in 1 out of 47 packs. Before then, the rate was...

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[Exo]

Happy hunting everyone I hope you get the pulls you want!

 

[Shining Goodra]

Let the fist fights and death threats for stock begin!

 

[GlowSquid]

Checking the prices on TCGplayer for Kieran and the Blueberry Academy Elite 4 just took 50 years off of my life. Time to wait a month or three before getting them !

 

[GaKi134]

Man this is weird. It’s almost like they completely changed the pull rates just before the set released…

Also, do we know anything about God Pack HR ?

 

[The Binder Guy]

Yeah… no. I’d much rather see a SIR pull rate on-par with or better than the pre-PAR sets, the fact that you could open 200+ packs without getting a single SIR is just sad.

But then again that’s why I’m critical of special sets in general rather than being critical of Prismatic Evolutions on its own. The sooner the international market embraces JPN-style releases the better.

Man this is weird. It’s almost like they completely changed the pull rates just before the set released…

Also, do we know anything about God Pack HR ?

Seeing the second-hand market for some cards, they clearly didn’t change enough to actually matter.

 

[piyuv]

Those pull rates are not too bad… what’s too bad is I’m not able to buy a single pack to check for myself

 

[alddente]

Wait, are they really that good? Everyone's been saying they're really hard, at least prerelease pulls were.

 

[The Binder Guy]

Wait, are they really that good? Everyone's been saying they're really hard, at least prerelease pulls were.

They’re harder in general because the graph doesn’t account for god packs.

 

[Frost]

Two times zero is still zero.

 

[Matteloop]

Should have been CZ pullrates.

 

[Atch78]

Pulled the SIR sylveon and SIR Janine today out of my Pokemon center ETB. I don’t think I will ever get that lucky again in my Pokemon collecting career.

 

[Dunslax]

Cap.

 

[KillerObstagoon]

Prismatic Evolutions Pull Rates based on 1,200 pack openings but all the previous SV set data based on 8,000 pack openings? Hmm, I don't know if I trust these numbers... at only 1200 packs it still weighs on the "got a lucky batch of packs" for me. But I hope the second print run makes this ratio true so I can afford to buy the singles haha

 

[TheLegend]

I did my own test in the name of science.
I can say with confident the pull rate for a eeveelution is 1 in impossible

 

[Kieros]

Prismatic Evolutions Pull Rates based on 1,200 pack openings but all the previous SV set data based on 8,000 pack openings? Hmm, I don't know if I trust these numbers... at only 1200 packs it still weighs on the "got a lucky batch of packs" for me. But I hope the second print run makes this ratio true so I can afford to buy the singles haha

Hello! I am a math major and can reverse-engineer the data to perform an analysis:

I only looked between Prismatic and Surging because that reduces minuscule inter-set variability, and Surging is basically dead-set on the average for post-Temporal data. From 8640 packs of Surging and 1260 packs of Prismatic, the odds that the two have equal pull rates are around .15% (Z=3.17), so yes, the difference is significant and is very likely not just a lucky batch.

Rarity​	SSP​	PRE​	Z​	p​
Double Rare	.1694	.1651	-0.386	.6992
Ultra Rare	.0675	.0746	2.455	.0141
ACE Spec	.0503	.0468	-0.536	.5917
Special Illustration Rare	.0115	.0222	3.172	.00151
Hyper Rare	.0053	.0056	0.105	.9162

 

[GoldGarchomp]

I got two binders, one for me and my daughter. Ten packs between us. I got 1 ex out of five packs. She got one ex, one ace spec, and two poke balls (one Pokémon and one on a trainer card). She definitely got the better binder lol.

 

[HammockBoy]

This amazing work from TCG Player is of course a small sample size where even slightly incorrect distribution of the different tier of cards can significantly affect results. I ripped 49 packs yesterday, and sadly for me my success (or lack there of) didn't reflect the pull rates published above. No SIR, no Master ball, just 4 ex double rares (that actually stings the most), 3 ultra rare trainers, 11 common/uncommon Poke balls and 3 rare Poke balls. But hey, I got 4 ACE specs!!!

 

[Mystic_Bard]

They’re harder in general because the graph doesn’t account for god packs.

Yeh, god packs shouldn't count on those data. Because even 1 god pack at 2k packs will add like 9 SIR to the around 25 that (with a 1/80) should be pulled on 2K packs, that is a 36% more SIR but not the actual pull rate.
Earlier this week, some people combined the numbers from youtube vids and twitch streams and including the god packs (and demi god packs) in the total numbers were about 1/70 to 1/80, so the actual pull rate should be even worse, I don't know how those numbers from tcgplayer came to be, but maybe the kinda low number of packs made 'just got lucky' matter more on the final number.
That said, I would love the 1/45 to be true or even better the SV base pull rate (and for golds too)

 

[Hukutus]

I’m just glad, as a player, that Vessels and Poffins are more accessible. Prime Catchers also tanked.