Forum mod [member]Celebi23[/member] has written an informative guide to what you can expect at Cities!
Our metagame has been a triangle for awhile. Magnezone loses to fast decks, but those decks lose to Damage Swap lock decks, but those decks lose to Magnezone. A lot of people got fed up with that format, and are eager for a change. The latest set - Noble Victories - has the potential to bring that change, and make the format for Cities much more fair and interesting.
However, the title is somewhat deceiving, because there really isn't one specific deck that is the best play for Cities. The format, while it's no longer a perfect triangle, is still a mess. Nothing in Noble Victories is broken enough to redefine the format, but some stuff is good enough to modify it.
I'll start off by doing a mini set analysis, only covering the cards that will make it into tier one or 1.5. Then, we can get into how the HS-EP decks are either helped or hurt by this set.
As a side note, though, what do you guys think of the title? I figured I'd give my articles a heading, since I plan on doing a lot of them.
Noble Victories brings a good number of interesting cards to the table: Victini, Kyurem, Durant, N, Eviolite, and Rocky Helmet. Chandelure, Eelektrik, Cobalion and Vanilluxe all deserve honorable mention.
To quickly summarize most of the honorable mentions, Chandelure and Vanilluxe will most likely find their way into some variants of The Truth. They both have non-exploitable weaknesses and the magic 130HP, as well as an interesting Ability/attack that makes them a good fit for the deck. However, I don't think either will make the deck stronger than it is now. The best version of that deck, in my opinion, is the one that sets up as quickly as possible, since you win 95% of the time after you're setup. Therefore, the best version of The Truth will remain googlebox.
As a side note, Vanilluxe/Vileplume/Victini has been hyped a little, but it doesn't deserve that hype. It's way too hard to set up Stage 2 attackers under trainer lock to be a good deck, especially since the attack is not fully reliable, even with Victini.
Eelektrik also potentially deserves a spot in some Zekrom and/or Magnezone decks. Both of these cards benefit from Energy acceleration. However, the card's Retreat Cost of two and the Basic's 40 HP are both factors that could easily prevent it from becoming competitive. Also, Magnezone doesn't discard Energy, so Floatzel, Pachirisu, or Emboar will probably remain the best fits for him. And running Pokemon Communication in Zekrom is a drag. It will be interesting to see if this Pokemon does find his way into the metagame, since he does have some interesting partners like Raichu (Prime).
Now, let's get into a more detailed analysis on the rest of the cards.
Victini
Victini is easily the most versatile Pokemon in this set. He's great support for any card that requires flips. Outside of with Vanilluxe, he should have two main uses.
The first and most playable use is with Sharpedo. With Victini on the Bench, ]Sharpedo has about a 44% chance to discard your opponent's entire hand for just one Energy! Combine this combo with Slowking's Second Sight, and you will have control of what your opponent draws for the rest of the game. Other potential cards to add are Cinccino and Mime Jr. to further control what your opponent draws, and to take fast Prizes. Crushing Hammer is also a very viable addition, since it can remove the Energy they attached in the first couple turns.
In theory, this deck sounds very viable. And in reality, it might be. However, it hasn't gotten very much hype. This is mostly because Victini does nothing to guarantee you hit two heads. Your entire game plan is based off of hitting two heads at once; two heads which may never come, even with Victini. Furthermore, Sharpedo is best used on turn two going first. If you don't get Sharpedo out fast enough, or if you don't flip the double heads fast enough, or if you can't hit Crushing Hammer heads, or (insert one of various other fairly common scenarios here) your opponent will often be too setup for you to come back.
Even so, mathematically, the deck is viable. I'm expecting most of the better players to steer clear of it, simply because they won't want their entire game decided by flips. However, it's definitely a deck to watch out for. I like to think of the deck as a faster, but less reliable, googlebox. If you successfully do what the deck is built to do, you're most likely going to win.
The second, but much less deadly (viable), use is with Teddiursa. Provided you start with Teddiursa (or anyone with free retreat), go first, and get Victini on the bench, you have a 75% chance of preventing them from playing trainers on their next turn. The next turn, you ideally setup a Vileplume, or you use the attack again and hope to hit heads. Yeah... it's not going to happen a lot. However, it does make the "Bearhug" deck (Vileplume/Ursaring/Roserade/other attacker) somewhat more viable, and certainly deserving of a second look.
If anybody wants to know, the chance for Sharpedo to hit double heads is figured out by doing:
.25 (chance of heads heads first time) + [.75 (chance of failing the first time) * .25 (chance of double heads the second time)] = .44 (overall chance of success).
The question you are asking is, "what is the probability of getting two heads in my firsts flip OR getting two heads in my second flip if my first flip fails). The probability of getting two heads is .25. To do a second flip, the first one has to fail. "Or" means add, and "and" means multiply. Therefore, .25+(.75*.25) is the ultimate equation, which equals 43.75%, which can be rounded up to 44%.
Kyurem and Cobalion
I'll group these two together. Kyurem is the third and final dragon. Reshiram and Zekrom have both been strong forces in the metagame, and Kyurem has their same godly HP and Outrage attack. His second attack, unlike Reshiram's and Zekrom's, has absolutely no drawback and is technically capable of doing 60 more overall damage than Blue Flare or Bolt Strike. At first glance, that makes this card sound incredibly viable. However, there have been a lot of naysayers to this deck. They claim that Reshiram and Zekrom will OHKO it with a PlusPower, and Kyurem's spread damage won't add up fast enough for it to come back. While this is true, I do not, agree with this overall assessment of the card. It has been selling for around 20 dollars on TnT, and at the time of writing this article is their second best-selling Pokemon card, so I am obviously not the only person with faith in this card.
Pairing Kyurem with Jirachi is obvious. Since he needs three Energy to use his main attack, he also needs Energy acceleration. There are two viable types of Water Energy acceleration. The first is with Floatzel and Shaymin, and the second is with Feraligatr (Prime). I can tell you right now that using Floatzel and Shaymin won't work. On occasion, it will be faster than Feraligatr, but it can't charge up enough extra Kyurem after the first 1-2 to be viable. People complain that Feraligatr will be Catchered up and Knocked Out, making that form of the deck useless as well. However, I have found a way to solve this. I present Vilerym:
Pokemon (19):
4 Kyurem
2 Vileplume
1 Gloom
3 Oddish
2 Feraligatr (Prime)
2 Croconaw
3 Totodile (HS)
1 Jirachi
1 Cleffa
Trainers (28):
4 Pokemon Collector
4 Cheren
4 Twins
3 N
2 Professor Juniper
1 Professor Oak's New Theory
1 Copycat
1 Tropical Beach
4 Pokemon Communication
4 Rare Candy
Energy (13):
10 Water Energy
3 Psychic Energy
This list is still a prototype. The setup works a lot like googlebox; set up your two Stage 2's (Vileplume and Feraligatr) and then start attacking with Kyurem's Glaciate. It gets great Twins abuse because Kyurem's spread often doesn't take prizes until late-game. However, you do have to be careful not to fall down too far on prizes, since you don't have Reuniclus to deny them prizes. Vileplume virtually forces your opponent to two-hit Kyurem, so falling down a couple prizes is usually not an issue. It also prevents Feraligatr from getting Catchered and either knocked out or stuck active, and it makes Jirachi that much more devastating.
There's a crazy amount of free space in this deck. Most of those spots went to consistency in this list, since I'm still testing it out and getting a feel for it. Some other viable inclusions are a 2nd Jirachi, a Sigilyph, or a 1-1 Suicune & Entei Legend. I tested with Sigilyph a little, and it didn't do much. The 2nd Jirachi isn't ever needed, but it's great to make sure you don't prize or start with your only Jirachi. I still like at least eight draw supporters in this deck, plus for Twins, plus Tropical Beach. Eight draw supporters is great for early game setup, and makes you less reliant on Twins than googlebox is. And yes... Tropical Beach. It's a great card in pretty much any deck running Twins, and it's just that much more amazing with N in the format.
In testing, it did very well against both Reshiram and Zekrom. I have yet to test it against Magnezone, however. It did have trouble with both Durant and Cobalion. The inclusion of SEL should, in theory, be enough to save your Cobalion matchup, as long as long as you're careful with what you spread to. It should also be great against Reuniclus decks.
This brings me to the final deck Kyurem is viable in: Kyurem/Cobalion/Electrode. This deck was big in Japan, and has been getting its fair share of hype here. Basically, the idea is to use Electrode as a fast way to charge Kyurem and Cobalion, then start spreading with Kyurem. Cobalion with a couple special metals is great for clean-up, and is a great attacker against Gothitelle and googlebox, as well as against other Kyurem.
I admit I have very little experience with this deck. However, I did some testing against my friend's version of it. It ran through my Kyurem/Feraligatr deck easily with Cobalion. However, it couldn't do anything against my Reshiram or Durant. How badly the deck failed against two very popular and hyped decks tempts me to say the deck will not be a Tier 1 choice. And I will say that, but I'll also add that I haven't tested with it enough to promise it will fail. I admit I did trade for a couple Electrode at league today, just to be safe. Furthermore, the deck is a ton of fun to play, and that should contribute to how much it gets played.
Pretty much everybody can agree that Kyurem is a great tech in googlebox, Gothitelle, and Donphan. However, it's still overshadowed by Zekrom in googlebox and Gothitelle, the latter of which arguably doesn't need any dragons at all. Its main use in Donphan is to beat other Donphan, which is a very niche role, and certainly not enough for Donphan to become a better deck.
As a side note, Kyurem will most likely see play later in Cities. They are very hard to find, and not everybody is willing to spend 80 dollars for a playset of them. Also, people are reluctant to play an unproven deck in an untested format. The same thing happened with Gothitelle.
Durant
Durant, much like Kyurem, is a deck with an interesting way of winning the game. Kyurem, while it takes six prizes, tries to take a lot of prizes at once, later in the game. Durant doesn't bother taking prizes. Instead, the little 70HP pest tries to decimate your entire deck by discarding four cards from the top of it every turn.
There are a lot of different ways to play Durant. One extreme is just running four Durant, 10-12 Energy, and a billion Trainers and Supporters to get your Durants out, keep them out, and disrupt your opponent's field with cards like Crushing Hammer. The other extreme uses a lot of other disruptive Pokemon. A list for it looks something like:
Pokemon (10):
4 Durant
2 Weavile
2 Sneasel
1 Spiritomb
1 Rotom
Trainers (39):
4 Pokemon Collector
4 Professor Juniper
3 Twins
3 N
2 Team Rocket's Trickery
4 Junk Arm
4 Revive
3 Pokegear 3.0
3 Crushing Hammer
1 Lost Remover
2 Super Scoop Up
2 Dual Ball
2 Eviolite
2 Pokemon Catcher
Energy (11):
4 Metal Energy (Special)
7 Metal Energy
The list still isn't perfect. Its top wants are a 3rd Catcher, a 3rd Eviolite, a 3rd Super Scoop Up or a Seeker, a 4th Crushing Hammer, and maybe a 3rd Dual Ball or 12th Energy. I'm still undecided about Rescue Energy in the deck. Still, it gets set up consistently, and that's the important thing in testing.
When it comes down to it, I'm not too sure how I feel about Durant as a deck. In testing, all it really did was capitalize on an opponent's bad start and mill cards on top of the cards they're forced to draw to steal a win. It doesn't have a lot of room to outplay an opponent, even with Weavile and Spiritomb. The mirror match especially is very luck-based. Still, it's been testing well. It enjoys an almost auto-win against Yanmega/Magnezone and Stage 1 decks. It has a good matchup against googlebox and Gothitelle, since those decks basically never have an ideal start and often burn too many cards in getting setup. Not needing to give them Twins also hurts them a lot.
However, it hasn't been doing very well against Reshiphlosion; averaging around 25-75. If they get a Typhlosion out, you basically lose, since their Flare Destroy kills everything in your deck from weakness. They can even win with a Reshiram start, by using Afterburner enough times for Outrage to OHKO a Durant. I haven't tested enough against Zekrom to make a strong statement about its Zekrom matchup, but I've heard that is pretty bad as well. It's done okay against my Kyurem/Vileplume deck, too. Really the deciding factor in that matchup has been whether or not I could get an Eviolite out before they get Vileplume out. Regardless, if Durant has bad matchups against two of the most popular and hyped decks in the format, it doesn't look incredibly strong going into Cities. I still consider it to be a Tier 1.5 deck, however, and it's very psychologically annoying to play against.
Now we get into the Trainers.
N
Although N doesn't influence the metagame a lot, I think this card will change how players play the game more than any other card in the set. Good players will always assume their opponent has the N in their hand, and be surprised when it's not. Bad players will do the opposite. Therefore, this card will be great for promoting the most skilled player winning.
It deserves a spot in a surprising number of decks. Obviously not Yanmega decks, and most likely not Zekrom either. Reshiram is a little questionable. However, Magneboar, Vileplume, Gothitelle, Kyurem, and Durant all get great use out of the card. Not to mention some other decks that could make a comeback through this card, like Gengar (Prime). It's got amazing late-game power and is great for promoting come-from-behind wins. Rocket's Admin got its fair share of play back in the day, and I see N being exactly the same way. Its powers as an early-game disruptive card are great as well, not to mention the early-game draw power it offers. Even if your opponent has used Sage's Training, Cheren, Tropical Beach, etc to have a 3-6 card hand, using N automatically makes those cards less ordered than they were before, even if it gives them an extra 1-2 cards, and can throw off an opponent's entire game plan.
Eviolite
Eviolite benefits pretty much any Basic, but in particular the following cards: Reshiram, Zekrom, Kyurem, Cobalion and Durant. However, exactly how much it benefits these decks is questionable. Excluding Durant for a minute, Magnezone already had to Lost Burn three Energy to KO all of these cards, and Eviolite does nothing to change that. Reuniclus damage swap decks aren't worried about taking OHKOs, but Donphan can still OHKO Zekrom, SEL still OHKOs Reshiram and Cobalion, and Gothitelle can still OHKO any of these cards with enough Energy.
The card's primary use comes in when these decks are playing against each other. The player running Eviolite in a basic mirror has a huge advantage over the other player. Because these Basics constitute such a large amount of the format, most of them will run Eviolite just so they aren't caught at a disadvantage. Kyurem especially needs it if it's not running Vileplume. Of course it's a staple in Zekrom as well. However, running Eviolite often means dropping consistency cards. This makes the decks weaker against pretty much everything else. I think this will be good for the format, since it gives the Stage 2 decks a much better chance at winning.
What it does do is put a nail in the coffin of the Donphan/Yanmega/Zoroark deck, and most likely Donphan/Dragons as well. These decks simply did not do enough damage to compete with a lot of decks in HS-EP. Adding Eviolite to the format and making a lot of these cards even bulkier just makes it too hard for them to compete. Also, while it is basically a staple in Kyurem, it is also a great counter to Kyurem.
Eviolite is also a card to hang on to in preparation for the release of the EX's. None of them have been too impressive, but their stupidly high HPs and Eviolite could be enough to make them go to Tier 1-1.5.
Rocky Helmet
This is Eviolite's "counterpart." It works for any Pokemon, and instead of reducing damage by 20, it makes your opponent take 20 damage when they attack you. Even though it can be Catchered around, I actually prefer this card over Eviolite in Reshiram. Typhlosion's Afterburner damage often makes Eviolite useless, and Rocky Helmet can be almost as good against other basic decks as Eviolite would be. However, it has some great uses in other matchups, such as Magnezone and Gothitelle. Helmet serves as a great pesudo-counter to Gothitelle, and takes away the need to use two PlusPowers to KO Magnezone.
Druddigon is an interesting card to use with this. Taking 40 damage recoil every time you attack it is devastating psychologically and literally, and it pairs very well with Yanmega. However, I don't think it will go high tier.
Outside of these two decks, I'm expecting most Basic decks to choose Eviolite over this. It might see some play in a few stage one or two decks, too. It's definitely a card to keep in mind, especially because of how annoying it is for Gothitelle to play around.
Now that we have an understanding of the new cards, we need an understanding of what this set and the new threats it brings will do to the decks that currently exist in the metagame.
MegaZone
This deck performed best at Regionals, winning two and placing second at two. It suffers from two things, however. Firstly, it has a virtually unwinnable Durant matchup. It also suffers from Eviolite, which makes Yanmega much harder to use against the dragons - especially Zekrom. It also doesn't gain much from the set; it can't make great use of N, Rocky Helmet, Eviolite, or any of the cards in the set.
Expected Change: Tier 1 >> Tier 1.5
Zekrom
This deck stole one Regionals, and got two second places. Eviolite makes it much stronger. It doesn't particularly struggle against Durant or Kyurem, and because of how quickly it sets up, can hold its own against "Victini lock." Really, not a lot changes here.
Expected Change: Tier 1 >> Tier 1
Stage 1 (Donphan/Yanmega)
This deck surprised everybody by winning a Regionals, and taking second at one. However, it gets severely hurt by the release of Eviolite, and hates playing Durant. It didn't even have exceptionally good matchups in the old format, and why it placed well is a mystery to me. It wasn't ever really Tier 1, even back in the Nationals/Worlds format.
As a side note, Donphan/Dragons should also be hurt. Tornadus now destroys Donphan, and Donphan can't even OHKO a Zekrom after it uses Bolt Strike without a PlusPower. The deck underwhelmed at Regionals, despite its good MegaZone matchup.
Expected Change: Tier 1.5 >> Tier 2
google.dec
google.dec is a metagame counter deck. It plays to beat a set group of decks. With the release of a new set, what the set group of decks is is thrown into question. The deck has been struggling against Durant, and even Kyurem is capable of threatening it a little, since it can Outrage KO both Donphan and SEL. It almost forces the deck to include a metal attacker, for the purpose of beating it. Cobalion is the obvious choice, since it has enough HP to take hits from most things.
The deck, contrary to popular belief, is clearly still viable. It won one Regionals and placed in top 4 in two mroe. However, it's a hard deck to play when there's no defined metagame. Until we know what the metagame is, it's probably not the best play. However, if Magnezone gets weaker as I predict it will, this deck could become much stronger in turn. It might need to make some changes to apply for Durant and Kyurem, however.
Expected Change: Tier 1 >> Tier 2 (temporarily) >> Tier 1-1.5
Magnezone/Emboar
This deck underperformed at Regionals. It got one second place, but that's it. However, it was horribly under-represented when compared to everything else. It can beat Durant through the use of Emboar's attack, and it can beat Kyurem through sheer power. It also played very well against the majority of the format before NV was released. The deck is not hurt by N at all. It is one of my top choices for Cities right now. This might change after the format develops more.
Expected Change: Tier 1-1.5 >>> Tier 1-1.5
Gothitelle
This deck got a lot of hype going into Regionals, and was well represented, yet its best finish was one top eight. googlebox completely outdid the deck. However, I think this came down to one simple fact: Gothitelle was the deck to beat for Regionals. Nobody wanted to go into the tournament with a bad Gothitelle matchup, which is proven by the "techs" used in the winning TyRam decks. If the format shifts away from Gothitelle again, it has the potential to come back and be one of the top decks. It doesn't particularly struggle against Kyurem, but Cobalion is stupidly annoying to play against, and it's not great against Durant. Rocky Helmet is also very hard for it to play around, especially in 30+3.
Now is a good time to mention one card that could find its way into the deck - Leavanny. Pre-NV, the only hard counter to Gothitelle was Mew. By adding a 1-0-1 Leavanny line, Gothitelle can, for lack of a better way to say it, counter its only hard counter. I do not think this will be enough for it to make a comeback, however, since Mew wasn't a great deck to begin with, despite its overall strength against Durant.
Expected Change: Tier 1-1.5 >> Tier 1.5
Reshiram/Typhlosion
Finally, Reshiphlosion. This deck managed to win two Regionals. However, neither of the decks were pure Reshiphlosion. One used Kingdra, and the other was won by an old friend of mine with Magnezone. It was clearly a strong contender in the last format.
The deck hasn't showed any signs of struggling against Durant or standard builds of Kyurem, and if you setup, Sharpedo's hand disruption won't do anything to you, since everything you need to keep attacking is on the field. Similarly, the deck doesn't particularly mind getting hit with an N, so long as you have enough Reshiram on the field before it happens. N does, however, make Ninetales a necessity again.
It gets some pretty extreme benefits from both Rocky Helmet and Eviolite, too; especially Rocky Helmet. That card gives the deck a fighting chance against Gothitelle, although I think running one Magby is still necessary, too. Rocky Helmet won't win the game against a smart Gothitelle player; it will just make it take longer for them to win. Hopefully more than 30 minutes and three turns.
I do not like Reshiram as a deck. It has a very one-dimensional game plan, and is very predictable. It tries to be as fast as it can, but at the same time as powerful as it can, and it ultimately ends up not fully having either. Still, once it is fully setup, its consistency is unmatched by any deck in the format, and 130+ HP basics dealing 120+ damage should not be under estimated. The consistency of the deck makes it the best play going into an untested format, especially since it hasn't struggled against any of the hyped new decks/cards.
Expected Change: Tier 1 >> Temporary BDIF >> Tier 1
Seeing as I feel that strongly about the deck's strength, I think it's also necessary to provide a decklist.
Pokemon (20):
4 Reshiram
4 Typhlosion (Prime)
2 Quilava
4 Cyndaquil (HS)
2 Ninetales
2 Vulpix (HS)
1 Cleffa
1 Magby
Trainers (28):
4 Pokemon Collector
3 Professor Juniper
4 Sage's Training
4 Pokemon Communication
4 Rare Candy
3 Junk Arm
2 PlusPower
2 Pokemon Catcher
2 Rocky Helmet
Energy (12):
12 Fire Energy
This list is very simple and straightforward, it's based entirely on consistency. However, I believe it's the ideal list for Reshiphlosion. The only other card I would want in here is a 4th Juniper, but it runs fine as it is. Other cards to consider are a Revive, a Super Rod, an Energy Retrieval, 1-2 Rescue Energy, and/or a 3rd Catcher.
You'll notice the overall focus on beating Gothitelle and The Truth - the Rocky Helmet over Eviolite, the burn Vulpix over the 60 HP one with a better attack, and a Magby.
So, this is Celebi23, signing off for now. I hope you enjoyed the read and feel a bit more informed about what to expect at Cities. Good luck next weekend!
Cities - What's the Play?
Our metagame has been a triangle for awhile. Magnezone loses to fast decks, but those decks lose to Damage Swap lock decks, but those decks lose to Magnezone. A lot of people got fed up with that format, and are eager for a change. The latest set - Noble Victories - has the potential to bring that change, and make the format for Cities much more fair and interesting.
However, the title is somewhat deceiving, because there really isn't one specific deck that is the best play for Cities. The format, while it's no longer a perfect triangle, is still a mess. Nothing in Noble Victories is broken enough to redefine the format, but some stuff is good enough to modify it.
I'll start off by doing a mini set analysis, only covering the cards that will make it into tier one or 1.5. Then, we can get into how the HS-EP decks are either helped or hurt by this set.
As a side note, though, what do you guys think of the title? I figured I'd give my articles a heading, since I plan on doing a lot of them.
Noble Victories
Noble Victories brings a good number of interesting cards to the table: Victini, Kyurem, Durant, N, Eviolite, and Rocky Helmet. Chandelure, Eelektrik, Cobalion and Vanilluxe all deserve honorable mention.
To quickly summarize most of the honorable mentions, Chandelure and Vanilluxe will most likely find their way into some variants of The Truth. They both have non-exploitable weaknesses and the magic 130HP, as well as an interesting Ability/attack that makes them a good fit for the deck. However, I don't think either will make the deck stronger than it is now. The best version of that deck, in my opinion, is the one that sets up as quickly as possible, since you win 95% of the time after you're setup. Therefore, the best version of The Truth will remain googlebox.
As a side note, Vanilluxe/Vileplume/Victini has been hyped a little, but it doesn't deserve that hype. It's way too hard to set up Stage 2 attackers under trainer lock to be a good deck, especially since the attack is not fully reliable, even with Victini.
Eelektrik also potentially deserves a spot in some Zekrom and/or Magnezone decks. Both of these cards benefit from Energy acceleration. However, the card's Retreat Cost of two and the Basic's 40 HP are both factors that could easily prevent it from becoming competitive. Also, Magnezone doesn't discard Energy, so Floatzel, Pachirisu, or Emboar will probably remain the best fits for him. And running Pokemon Communication in Zekrom is a drag. It will be interesting to see if this Pokemon does find his way into the metagame, since he does have some interesting partners like Raichu (Prime).
Now, let's get into a more detailed analysis on the rest of the cards.
Victini
Victini is easily the most versatile Pokemon in this set. He's great support for any card that requires flips. Outside of with Vanilluxe, he should have two main uses.
The first and most playable use is with Sharpedo. With Victini on the Bench, ]Sharpedo has about a 44% chance to discard your opponent's entire hand for just one Energy! Combine this combo with Slowking's Second Sight, and you will have control of what your opponent draws for the rest of the game. Other potential cards to add are Cinccino and Mime Jr. to further control what your opponent draws, and to take fast Prizes. Crushing Hammer is also a very viable addition, since it can remove the Energy they attached in the first couple turns.
In theory, this deck sounds very viable. And in reality, it might be. However, it hasn't gotten very much hype. This is mostly because Victini does nothing to guarantee you hit two heads. Your entire game plan is based off of hitting two heads at once; two heads which may never come, even with Victini. Furthermore, Sharpedo is best used on turn two going first. If you don't get Sharpedo out fast enough, or if you don't flip the double heads fast enough, or if you can't hit Crushing Hammer heads, or (insert one of various other fairly common scenarios here) your opponent will often be too setup for you to come back.
Even so, mathematically, the deck is viable. I'm expecting most of the better players to steer clear of it, simply because they won't want their entire game decided by flips. However, it's definitely a deck to watch out for. I like to think of the deck as a faster, but less reliable, googlebox. If you successfully do what the deck is built to do, you're most likely going to win.
The second, but much less deadly (viable), use is with Teddiursa. Provided you start with Teddiursa (or anyone with free retreat), go first, and get Victini on the bench, you have a 75% chance of preventing them from playing trainers on their next turn. The next turn, you ideally setup a Vileplume, or you use the attack again and hope to hit heads. Yeah... it's not going to happen a lot. However, it does make the "Bearhug" deck (Vileplume/Ursaring/Roserade/other attacker) somewhat more viable, and certainly deserving of a second look.
If anybody wants to know, the chance for Sharpedo to hit double heads is figured out by doing:
.25 (chance of heads heads first time) + [.75 (chance of failing the first time) * .25 (chance of double heads the second time)] = .44 (overall chance of success).
The question you are asking is, "what is the probability of getting two heads in my firsts flip OR getting two heads in my second flip if my first flip fails). The probability of getting two heads is .25. To do a second flip, the first one has to fail. "Or" means add, and "and" means multiply. Therefore, .25+(.75*.25) is the ultimate equation, which equals 43.75%, which can be rounded up to 44%.
Kyurem and Cobalion
I'll group these two together. Kyurem is the third and final dragon. Reshiram and Zekrom have both been strong forces in the metagame, and Kyurem has their same godly HP and Outrage attack. His second attack, unlike Reshiram's and Zekrom's, has absolutely no drawback and is technically capable of doing 60 more overall damage than Blue Flare or Bolt Strike. At first glance, that makes this card sound incredibly viable. However, there have been a lot of naysayers to this deck. They claim that Reshiram and Zekrom will OHKO it with a PlusPower, and Kyurem's spread damage won't add up fast enough for it to come back. While this is true, I do not, agree with this overall assessment of the card. It has been selling for around 20 dollars on TnT, and at the time of writing this article is their second best-selling Pokemon card, so I am obviously not the only person with faith in this card.
Pairing Kyurem with Jirachi is obvious. Since he needs three Energy to use his main attack, he also needs Energy acceleration. There are two viable types of Water Energy acceleration. The first is with Floatzel and Shaymin, and the second is with Feraligatr (Prime). I can tell you right now that using Floatzel and Shaymin won't work. On occasion, it will be faster than Feraligatr, but it can't charge up enough extra Kyurem after the first 1-2 to be viable. People complain that Feraligatr will be Catchered up and Knocked Out, making that form of the deck useless as well. However, I have found a way to solve this. I present Vilerym:
Pokemon (19):
4 Kyurem
2 Vileplume
1 Gloom
3 Oddish
2 Feraligatr (Prime)
2 Croconaw
3 Totodile (HS)
1 Jirachi
1 Cleffa
Trainers (28):
4 Pokemon Collector
4 Cheren
4 Twins
3 N
2 Professor Juniper
1 Professor Oak's New Theory
1 Copycat
1 Tropical Beach
4 Pokemon Communication
4 Rare Candy
Energy (13):
10 Water Energy
3 Psychic Energy
This list is still a prototype. The setup works a lot like googlebox; set up your two Stage 2's (Vileplume and Feraligatr) and then start attacking with Kyurem's Glaciate. It gets great Twins abuse because Kyurem's spread often doesn't take prizes until late-game. However, you do have to be careful not to fall down too far on prizes, since you don't have Reuniclus to deny them prizes. Vileplume virtually forces your opponent to two-hit Kyurem, so falling down a couple prizes is usually not an issue. It also prevents Feraligatr from getting Catchered and either knocked out or stuck active, and it makes Jirachi that much more devastating.
There's a crazy amount of free space in this deck. Most of those spots went to consistency in this list, since I'm still testing it out and getting a feel for it. Some other viable inclusions are a 2nd Jirachi, a Sigilyph, or a 1-1 Suicune & Entei Legend. I tested with Sigilyph a little, and it didn't do much. The 2nd Jirachi isn't ever needed, but it's great to make sure you don't prize or start with your only Jirachi. I still like at least eight draw supporters in this deck, plus for Twins, plus Tropical Beach. Eight draw supporters is great for early game setup, and makes you less reliant on Twins than googlebox is. And yes... Tropical Beach. It's a great card in pretty much any deck running Twins, and it's just that much more amazing with N in the format.
In testing, it did very well against both Reshiram and Zekrom. I have yet to test it against Magnezone, however. It did have trouble with both Durant and Cobalion. The inclusion of SEL should, in theory, be enough to save your Cobalion matchup, as long as long as you're careful with what you spread to. It should also be great against Reuniclus decks.
This brings me to the final deck Kyurem is viable in: Kyurem/Cobalion/Electrode. This deck was big in Japan, and has been getting its fair share of hype here. Basically, the idea is to use Electrode as a fast way to charge Kyurem and Cobalion, then start spreading with Kyurem. Cobalion with a couple special metals is great for clean-up, and is a great attacker against Gothitelle and googlebox, as well as against other Kyurem.
I admit I have very little experience with this deck. However, I did some testing against my friend's version of it. It ran through my Kyurem/Feraligatr deck easily with Cobalion. However, it couldn't do anything against my Reshiram or Durant. How badly the deck failed against two very popular and hyped decks tempts me to say the deck will not be a Tier 1 choice. And I will say that, but I'll also add that I haven't tested with it enough to promise it will fail. I admit I did trade for a couple Electrode at league today, just to be safe. Furthermore, the deck is a ton of fun to play, and that should contribute to how much it gets played.
Pretty much everybody can agree that Kyurem is a great tech in googlebox, Gothitelle, and Donphan. However, it's still overshadowed by Zekrom in googlebox and Gothitelle, the latter of which arguably doesn't need any dragons at all. Its main use in Donphan is to beat other Donphan, which is a very niche role, and certainly not enough for Donphan to become a better deck.
As a side note, Kyurem will most likely see play later in Cities. They are very hard to find, and not everybody is willing to spend 80 dollars for a playset of them. Also, people are reluctant to play an unproven deck in an untested format. The same thing happened with Gothitelle.
Durant
Durant, much like Kyurem, is a deck with an interesting way of winning the game. Kyurem, while it takes six prizes, tries to take a lot of prizes at once, later in the game. Durant doesn't bother taking prizes. Instead, the little 70HP pest tries to decimate your entire deck by discarding four cards from the top of it every turn.
There are a lot of different ways to play Durant. One extreme is just running four Durant, 10-12 Energy, and a billion Trainers and Supporters to get your Durants out, keep them out, and disrupt your opponent's field with cards like Crushing Hammer. The other extreme uses a lot of other disruptive Pokemon. A list for it looks something like:
Pokemon (10):
4 Durant
2 Weavile
2 Sneasel
1 Spiritomb
1 Rotom
Trainers (39):
4 Pokemon Collector
4 Professor Juniper
3 Twins
3 N
2 Team Rocket's Trickery
4 Junk Arm
4 Revive
3 Pokegear 3.0
3 Crushing Hammer
1 Lost Remover
2 Super Scoop Up
2 Dual Ball
2 Eviolite
2 Pokemon Catcher
Energy (11):
4 Metal Energy (Special)
7 Metal Energy
The list still isn't perfect. Its top wants are a 3rd Catcher, a 3rd Eviolite, a 3rd Super Scoop Up or a Seeker, a 4th Crushing Hammer, and maybe a 3rd Dual Ball or 12th Energy. I'm still undecided about Rescue Energy in the deck. Still, it gets set up consistently, and that's the important thing in testing.
When it comes down to it, I'm not too sure how I feel about Durant as a deck. In testing, all it really did was capitalize on an opponent's bad start and mill cards on top of the cards they're forced to draw to steal a win. It doesn't have a lot of room to outplay an opponent, even with Weavile and Spiritomb. The mirror match especially is very luck-based. Still, it's been testing well. It enjoys an almost auto-win against Yanmega/Magnezone and Stage 1 decks. It has a good matchup against googlebox and Gothitelle, since those decks basically never have an ideal start and often burn too many cards in getting setup. Not needing to give them Twins also hurts them a lot.
However, it hasn't been doing very well against Reshiphlosion; averaging around 25-75. If they get a Typhlosion out, you basically lose, since their Flare Destroy kills everything in your deck from weakness. They can even win with a Reshiram start, by using Afterburner enough times for Outrage to OHKO a Durant. I haven't tested enough against Zekrom to make a strong statement about its Zekrom matchup, but I've heard that is pretty bad as well. It's done okay against my Kyurem/Vileplume deck, too. Really the deciding factor in that matchup has been whether or not I could get an Eviolite out before they get Vileplume out. Regardless, if Durant has bad matchups against two of the most popular and hyped decks in the format, it doesn't look incredibly strong going into Cities. I still consider it to be a Tier 1.5 deck, however, and it's very psychologically annoying to play against.
Now we get into the Trainers.
N
Although N doesn't influence the metagame a lot, I think this card will change how players play the game more than any other card in the set. Good players will always assume their opponent has the N in their hand, and be surprised when it's not. Bad players will do the opposite. Therefore, this card will be great for promoting the most skilled player winning.
It deserves a spot in a surprising number of decks. Obviously not Yanmega decks, and most likely not Zekrom either. Reshiram is a little questionable. However, Magneboar, Vileplume, Gothitelle, Kyurem, and Durant all get great use out of the card. Not to mention some other decks that could make a comeback through this card, like Gengar (Prime). It's got amazing late-game power and is great for promoting come-from-behind wins. Rocket's Admin got its fair share of play back in the day, and I see N being exactly the same way. Its powers as an early-game disruptive card are great as well, not to mention the early-game draw power it offers. Even if your opponent has used Sage's Training, Cheren, Tropical Beach, etc to have a 3-6 card hand, using N automatically makes those cards less ordered than they were before, even if it gives them an extra 1-2 cards, and can throw off an opponent's entire game plan.
Eviolite
Eviolite benefits pretty much any Basic, but in particular the following cards: Reshiram, Zekrom, Kyurem, Cobalion and Durant. However, exactly how much it benefits these decks is questionable. Excluding Durant for a minute, Magnezone already had to Lost Burn three Energy to KO all of these cards, and Eviolite does nothing to change that. Reuniclus damage swap decks aren't worried about taking OHKOs, but Donphan can still OHKO Zekrom, SEL still OHKOs Reshiram and Cobalion, and Gothitelle can still OHKO any of these cards with enough Energy.
The card's primary use comes in when these decks are playing against each other. The player running Eviolite in a basic mirror has a huge advantage over the other player. Because these Basics constitute such a large amount of the format, most of them will run Eviolite just so they aren't caught at a disadvantage. Kyurem especially needs it if it's not running Vileplume. Of course it's a staple in Zekrom as well. However, running Eviolite often means dropping consistency cards. This makes the decks weaker against pretty much everything else. I think this will be good for the format, since it gives the Stage 2 decks a much better chance at winning.
What it does do is put a nail in the coffin of the Donphan/Yanmega/Zoroark deck, and most likely Donphan/Dragons as well. These decks simply did not do enough damage to compete with a lot of decks in HS-EP. Adding Eviolite to the format and making a lot of these cards even bulkier just makes it too hard for them to compete. Also, while it is basically a staple in Kyurem, it is also a great counter to Kyurem.
Eviolite is also a card to hang on to in preparation for the release of the EX's. None of them have been too impressive, but their stupidly high HPs and Eviolite could be enough to make them go to Tier 1-1.5.
Rocky Helmet
This is Eviolite's "counterpart." It works for any Pokemon, and instead of reducing damage by 20, it makes your opponent take 20 damage when they attack you. Even though it can be Catchered around, I actually prefer this card over Eviolite in Reshiram. Typhlosion's Afterburner damage often makes Eviolite useless, and Rocky Helmet can be almost as good against other basic decks as Eviolite would be. However, it has some great uses in other matchups, such as Magnezone and Gothitelle. Helmet serves as a great pesudo-counter to Gothitelle, and takes away the need to use two PlusPowers to KO Magnezone.
Druddigon is an interesting card to use with this. Taking 40 damage recoil every time you attack it is devastating psychologically and literally, and it pairs very well with Yanmega. However, I don't think it will go high tier.
Outside of these two decks, I'm expecting most Basic decks to choose Eviolite over this. It might see some play in a few stage one or two decks, too. It's definitely a card to keep in mind, especially because of how annoying it is for Gothitelle to play around.
The Old Decks
Now that we have an understanding of the new cards, we need an understanding of what this set and the new threats it brings will do to the decks that currently exist in the metagame.
MegaZone
This deck performed best at Regionals, winning two and placing second at two. It suffers from two things, however. Firstly, it has a virtually unwinnable Durant matchup. It also suffers from Eviolite, which makes Yanmega much harder to use against the dragons - especially Zekrom. It also doesn't gain much from the set; it can't make great use of N, Rocky Helmet, Eviolite, or any of the cards in the set.
Expected Change: Tier 1 >> Tier 1.5
Zekrom
This deck stole one Regionals, and got two second places. Eviolite makes it much stronger. It doesn't particularly struggle against Durant or Kyurem, and because of how quickly it sets up, can hold its own against "Victini lock." Really, not a lot changes here.
Expected Change: Tier 1 >> Tier 1
Stage 1 (Donphan/Yanmega)
This deck surprised everybody by winning a Regionals, and taking second at one. However, it gets severely hurt by the release of Eviolite, and hates playing Durant. It didn't even have exceptionally good matchups in the old format, and why it placed well is a mystery to me. It wasn't ever really Tier 1, even back in the Nationals/Worlds format.
As a side note, Donphan/Dragons should also be hurt. Tornadus now destroys Donphan, and Donphan can't even OHKO a Zekrom after it uses Bolt Strike without a PlusPower. The deck underwhelmed at Regionals, despite its good MegaZone matchup.
Expected Change: Tier 1.5 >> Tier 2
google.dec
google.dec is a metagame counter deck. It plays to beat a set group of decks. With the release of a new set, what the set group of decks is is thrown into question. The deck has been struggling against Durant, and even Kyurem is capable of threatening it a little, since it can Outrage KO both Donphan and SEL. It almost forces the deck to include a metal attacker, for the purpose of beating it. Cobalion is the obvious choice, since it has enough HP to take hits from most things.
The deck, contrary to popular belief, is clearly still viable. It won one Regionals and placed in top 4 in two mroe. However, it's a hard deck to play when there's no defined metagame. Until we know what the metagame is, it's probably not the best play. However, if Magnezone gets weaker as I predict it will, this deck could become much stronger in turn. It might need to make some changes to apply for Durant and Kyurem, however.
Expected Change: Tier 1 >> Tier 2 (temporarily) >> Tier 1-1.5
Magnezone/Emboar
This deck underperformed at Regionals. It got one second place, but that's it. However, it was horribly under-represented when compared to everything else. It can beat Durant through the use of Emboar's attack, and it can beat Kyurem through sheer power. It also played very well against the majority of the format before NV was released. The deck is not hurt by N at all. It is one of my top choices for Cities right now. This might change after the format develops more.
Expected Change: Tier 1-1.5 >>> Tier 1-1.5
Gothitelle
This deck got a lot of hype going into Regionals, and was well represented, yet its best finish was one top eight. googlebox completely outdid the deck. However, I think this came down to one simple fact: Gothitelle was the deck to beat for Regionals. Nobody wanted to go into the tournament with a bad Gothitelle matchup, which is proven by the "techs" used in the winning TyRam decks. If the format shifts away from Gothitelle again, it has the potential to come back and be one of the top decks. It doesn't particularly struggle against Kyurem, but Cobalion is stupidly annoying to play against, and it's not great against Durant. Rocky Helmet is also very hard for it to play around, especially in 30+3.
Now is a good time to mention one card that could find its way into the deck - Leavanny. Pre-NV, the only hard counter to Gothitelle was Mew. By adding a 1-0-1 Leavanny line, Gothitelle can, for lack of a better way to say it, counter its only hard counter. I do not think this will be enough for it to make a comeback, however, since Mew wasn't a great deck to begin with, despite its overall strength against Durant.
Expected Change: Tier 1-1.5 >> Tier 1.5
Reshiram/Typhlosion
Finally, Reshiphlosion. This deck managed to win two Regionals. However, neither of the decks were pure Reshiphlosion. One used Kingdra, and the other was won by an old friend of mine with Magnezone. It was clearly a strong contender in the last format.
The deck hasn't showed any signs of struggling against Durant or standard builds of Kyurem, and if you setup, Sharpedo's hand disruption won't do anything to you, since everything you need to keep attacking is on the field. Similarly, the deck doesn't particularly mind getting hit with an N, so long as you have enough Reshiram on the field before it happens. N does, however, make Ninetales a necessity again.
It gets some pretty extreme benefits from both Rocky Helmet and Eviolite, too; especially Rocky Helmet. That card gives the deck a fighting chance against Gothitelle, although I think running one Magby is still necessary, too. Rocky Helmet won't win the game against a smart Gothitelle player; it will just make it take longer for them to win. Hopefully more than 30 minutes and three turns.
I do not like Reshiram as a deck. It has a very one-dimensional game plan, and is very predictable. It tries to be as fast as it can, but at the same time as powerful as it can, and it ultimately ends up not fully having either. Still, once it is fully setup, its consistency is unmatched by any deck in the format, and 130+ HP basics dealing 120+ damage should not be under estimated. The consistency of the deck makes it the best play going into an untested format, especially since it hasn't struggled against any of the hyped new decks/cards.
Expected Change: Tier 1 >> Temporary BDIF >> Tier 1
Seeing as I feel that strongly about the deck's strength, I think it's also necessary to provide a decklist.
Pokemon (20):
4 Reshiram
4 Typhlosion (Prime)
2 Quilava
4 Cyndaquil (HS)
2 Ninetales
2 Vulpix (HS)
1 Cleffa
1 Magby
Trainers (28):
4 Pokemon Collector
3 Professor Juniper
4 Sage's Training
4 Pokemon Communication
4 Rare Candy
3 Junk Arm
2 PlusPower
2 Pokemon Catcher
2 Rocky Helmet
Energy (12):
12 Fire Energy
This list is very simple and straightforward, it's based entirely on consistency. However, I believe it's the ideal list for Reshiphlosion. The only other card I would want in here is a 4th Juniper, but it runs fine as it is. Other cards to consider are a Revive, a Super Rod, an Energy Retrieval, 1-2 Rescue Energy, and/or a 3rd Catcher.
You'll notice the overall focus on beating Gothitelle and The Truth - the Rocky Helmet over Eviolite, the burn Vulpix over the 60 HP one with a better attack, and a Magby.
So, this is Celebi23, signing off for now. I hope you enjoyed the read and feel a bit more informed about what to expect at Cities. Good luck next weekend!
(What will it take to convince you Gliscor?)
