Finished Mafia LI: Senate Subterfuge~Game Over!

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because he's looking kinda good for a day 5 lynch.
Any reason for why day 5?
Hammering in the last few hours of the day on someone we knew was scum is fine. There wasn't anything new that could have been said other than Tapu Lele sowing the seeds of bullshit and wifom.
I think this is not true, people could’ve giving opinions on your BB case (althought I do agree time was short)
Yes, I will not deny this. When I believe I've found scum, I tunnel them hard. I would rather guess wrong than lay off and let scum go. We have room to mislynch, especially because we got a scum so early in the game.
We have room to mislynch is true, but a very bad mindset. Every mislynch is another day that scum can use their abilities and also NK.
You can trust the host. Outside of bastard games (which this game isn't), the host is the one source of information people rely on as being completely true.
Fair enough
That said, bb's play has been nothing but scummy in every way, so I don't think he will. If he does then it's his own fault for playing and acting scummy enough to get lynched.
You’re acting like bb is 100% scum, but he isn’t. You changed his behaviour to look scummy while it could be town.
If we lynch a few of them we're bound to catch a scum sooner or later.
Not true. All of the scum might be active right now and all the inactives could be all town. And do you know what amount of mislynches that would take? Im pretty sure a lot.
As @PMJ says "we have time" (Lele's lynch) its not the end of the world if there are a few miss lynches
A few is 2 or more, that would be 4 useless deaths (including NK’s) which is not good for us.
Also, PMJ/Samwise scumteam anyone?
 
I believe the same. If the defenders of Lele have nothing to defend, they will have interesting reactions (most probably OMGUS revenge but whatever)
Do you have anything to follow-up on this, now that you have seen Lele flip mafian?

Another question for @PMJ: Was it just Cel and I who defended Lele?

@Jabberwock; so, reads. I'm expecting that a few of my questions that I asked above will help inform my reads a bit better, but here's how I'm standing now. I'm finding it very difficult to develop reads based on the interactions with Lele during Day 2 since it was a seer day, and so you either voted with 100% confidence or you speculated a little bit, but you'd support the lynch itself regardless, which means I don't think either is particularly indicative. I'd like to read Day 1 again since I think there will be more substance and connections there, but since that's also tainted with RVS, I'd really like to focus on Day 3. This case on me is really the first opportunity to see where people stand, and why - that's why I want to see those neutrals much more involved - with pressuring, scumhunt and commentary.

Very vague / wishy-washy reads. I would love to see all these players post more, and specifically ask people questions - since I'd like to guage how they (and others) interact.
- Prof_jplap - Needing more posts from him. He wanted info on the Certamen because he "wanted a sneak peak" on the prizes... and I don't know what to think about that.
- Gekki - suddenly appearing to vote right at the end of the day is odd. This might be explainable if he had a v/la that I didn't realise. Regardless, I don't reckon it'd be anything to lynch over right now, but definitely something that is making me watch him more carefully. I'd like to see him post a bit more and interact more with other players - it was starting to happen at the start of this day.
- Jade - Remarkably low post count due the v/la. First post was RVS and the second (and final) post was requesting some help catching up, so not helpful at all.
- Luis - the only thing that I can remember about Luis is that he was vocal about how he'd be particularly upset at the hosts, if Lele flipped town. The fact that he was very vocal then, but died off in activity pings my scumdar. Similar to what scattered was talking about earlier, I suppose. Thoughts @Luispipe8? (Scummier)
- Aqua - Aqua has actually been more active than realised. I'm interested to see what he says about the defenders of Lele, considering he said earlier that he expected them to have interesting reactions.
- Ace - I'd like to hear more about this slip that Cel has talked about.
- mirdo - Mirdo seems to be a bit confused and all-over-the-place right now. The only thing notable is that he suggested that we should not lynch Lele today and try our chances with someone else, but mirdo receded after that logic was pointed out as clearly flawed, which is a pretty normal reaction in my books. He said he wanted to look at my case more heavily, so I'm looking forward to that.
- Yog / DFL - there's not much there. He voted Lele, and speculated a tad. He said today that he's a bit busy this weekend and will be posting later, so very abysmal stuff.
- Osha - one RVS post. Not very helpful when it comes to developing reads.
- Drac - He's been flying under the radar, but I've noticed that he's also been popping in and giving rather nonchalant observations on a few random things, but not actually saying what he thinks about those observations. It doesn't strike me as very committal, and I don't really know where Drac stands right now despite his semi-regularly commentary - so that's interesting. (Scummier)

Everyone else:
- PMJ - I'm very not keen about PMJ, since I'm seeing his case as very twisted / selective when it comes to the evidence pertaining my motives. However, his point regarding how I defended Lele for the entire of Day 2 is something I'm considering an oversight right now, just misinformed, and so I'm two parts here. It will depend on what he says next, and I should be able to develop a more coherent (and hopefully less bias) read based on his responses to my questions. (scum-lean)
- Celever - Aaaaah, I have no idea - and I find him notoriously difficult to read on the best of days. I don't think his defending of Lele is indicative. He said he had a case on me before, but never really gave much as to why - and then said that PMJ's case on me was making him rethink, which is a backpedal that I don't think is indicative either. I guess he's townier in my books because he's being a voice of logic, which is a terrible and very flawed reason to find someone (especially a vet) innocent since that should be easy to fabricate. I'm very interested about that comment that Lele wasn't part of a scumchat, though, and am waiting on an answer on that. Otherwise, I'm going to have to watch him more critically. (neutral)
- Jabber - I'm not sure of Jabber either, in a similar vein to Celever. Last time I read him as scum because he was being a very strong voice of logic (and aligning with my own reads), it turned out he was mafian... so. His assertiveness has cause my scumdar to ping a bit, since I don't see how someone could have strong reads with the lack of WIFOM-less information that is around. (neutral)
- scattered mind - I found one of his reasons for voting Lele during Day 1, that they probably had been told to stop rolefishing in the scumchat, a very unfounded theory and found it rather WIFOMy to be the base of his pressure. My read on him has pretty neutral now, though - mostly because I agree with his reasoning and observations about the WIFOMiness of the current information available, and how he's not pushing anything WIFOMy either. Of course, as I said above, a strong voice of logic doesn't equate to innocence, so that's why I'm being more cautious with my read here. (neutral, inno lean)
- morda - I've been reading morda as quite town since he's been inquisitive and thoughtful, and as a byproduct of that, he seems to be thinking things through and have a clear thought process. Specifically the latter point, I tend to consider a more innocent indicator (since scum thought processes normally aren't that "complete" or "full"), so he's really my only town read. (inno-lean)
 
About time you got here. I was wondering if you were just gonna curl up and die.

I will respond to your questions, just give me time.
 
As @PMJ says "we have time" (Lele's lynch) its not the end of the world if there are a few miss lynches.

It doesn't have to be today but I don't like the idea of lynching all the active players just because they post.

I didn't say it was fine that we mislynched a few times.

We wouldn't have to worry about lynching "all the active players" if everyone would goddamn play the game they signed up for.

It's getting later in the day and now that you've been revealed to have a double vote you need to get it off gekki and put it on bbninjas because right now gekki is in the lead since he got to 2 votes first (I think).



PMJ is convinced that I was trying to stop Lele from being lynched, passively or actively. ... This is completely false - I never advocated against lynching Lele (in fact, I advocated the opposite - saying that "Lele should definitely be lynched today"),

Yeah, no kidding. This means nothing because no one is going to actually say the words "don't lynch Tapu Lele" or something to that effect. Clearly.

and my uncertainty over the real role only cropped up much later in the day (far from this entire day idea that PMJ has been pushing). In fact, it is my speculative post* - my last post of the day - that has been taken as the basis for my apparent motive, that is, to get people off the Lele wagon (see: "Yepperdoodles"; the idea is that I was sowing doubt). This, however, does not make sense. How could I be advocating for Lele to be lynched, yet still trying to get people off the wagon?

Because the extent to which you advocated for Lele's lynch was that one post where you said he should definitely be lynched. But of course you said that, because you are obviously not going to directly tell the town not to lynch host-confirmed scum.

Other than a couple unrelated posts, you spent the remainder of the day entertaining Tapu Lele's defense instead of telling him to take a long walk off a short pier. This includes the staged interaction between you and him in the thread; it was all you could do to try and get people to believe what he was saying.

That would have been heavily counterproductive to my motive, and would render my apparent last-ditch attempt unbelievably ineffective and meaningless - it's not going to cause people to move their vote. Even if we were to go with this theory, we would have to also assume the following things - and that would be radically unprecedented (in the spoiler):

- Saying Lele should be lynched, but trying to get people off the wagon anyway would have been incredibly and obviously inconsistent. To have made such an error, you would have to assume that I had either a) forgotten what I said earlier (very unlikely, considering I said or implied it on multiple occasions) OR b) that I'm incapable of recognising such an obvious error in thinking (i.e. that I'm incompetent).

You've been playing ultra careful this whole game. By entertaining Lele's defense and later suggesting ways that the flip might not be true, you're leaving room for people to change their votes while simultaneously covering your ass for his inevitable scum flip, because, again, you're not dumb enough to directly ask the town to not lynch confirmed scum. But you can't just sit there and let your team go down a member on day two, so you do what you can while staying ambiguous enough to look innocent once he flips.

- I think there was ~6 votes on the Lele wagon when I posted my uncertainty about how they might flip. Moving that many votes, that late into the day, would be near-impossible. Why didn't I "cast doubt" earlier, when there was little support for the wagon (and conversely, placed pressure on Lele)? I can't think of any reason as to why this would happen for anyone, aside from a) incompetency.

Crunch time. Subtlety wasn't working so you had to start bringing out the extra-strength bullshit instead of the regular dosage. Actually suggesting someone else to lynch wouldn't do because there was no way Tapu Lele was realistically gonna not be lynched, and if he flipped scum then you would look really bad for directly suggesting we change our votes off of host-confirmed scum. But if someone else suggests it, then you're absolved of sin and you can accuse them of exactly what I'm accusing you of.

- Any votes that fell from the wagon would have had to go elsewhere, yet I never provided an alternative. You'd have to assume that I either was a) hoping that someone else would lead a convincing wagon (which does not make sense, because I would have put myself out there for no reason) OR b) incompetency.

You didn't provide an alternative because it would be suicide to do so; you simply cast the seeds of doubt and hoped to Buddha that someone else would agree with you and say something.

RE: Point 2: "bbninjas has been playing in a scum mindset / has scum motives."

Main Evidence: I'm caring too much about how I appear. Specifically; Justifying questions that could be perceived as anti-town or otherwise problematic. (When meta is invoked, PMJ says that meta is insubstantial as a defense.)

Well, there's not too much to defend here because the point boils down to subjective beliefs over what are tells, and what are not. PMJ reckons that only mafians should care about how they appear, and I disagree.

Townies aren't so worried that they might look scummy that they pre-emptively defend themselves against everything they say that might be perceived as scummy. It shows you're afraid of being pressured.

I've already said that this is what I do, and why I think justifying myself is necessary and pro-town. I'm a self-aware person. If I am to deviate from the norm in what I ask or say, especially if people have FoS such an action in the past, I will normally realise that and notice it. If people are probably going to have qualms, I will explain or justify myself to save everyone's time, and in some cases, so people can't just deflect answering by saying "that's scummy". (An example would be when I questioned Celever over his position on T_E versus his position on Lele, and explained that I'm not pulling a hindsight abuse.) PMJ's response to this meta-inclined defense is again subjective and boils down to disagreeing over what is valid reasoning - PMJ says that meta-reads are ineffective, and I disagree to an extent.

This paragraph proves my point about why meta reads are 100% garbage. bbninjas spent like eight sentences explaining away his scummy behavior as what he does and I should just ignore it. Others have established this as well, that this is just what bbninjas does and it's non-alignment indicative as a result.

If bb's town meta is similar to his scum meta, then he can't use his town meta as an excuse for his scummy behavior because he is also acting similar to how he does as scum and should be lynched for it.

Regardless, bb is experienced enough to not act so far out of his "town meta" that he can no longer use it as a valid excuse; as I mentioned in a previous post, this results in his town meta and scum meta becoming one and the same, rendering any potential meta reads useless.

There are a few other instances where PMJ claims that I have a malicious motive, but I still believe that PMJ is twisting what I say to develop these, and is only considering the side that is mafian-indicative when facing potential WIFOM (hence why I say he's constructed this case under the assumption that I'm mafian, and not coming to that conclusion naturally). The specific instances of this I point in my defense here.

I'll say again that I was not assuming you were scum when looking at your posts initially. Your suggestion that Tapu Lele's flip might not be real and your interactions with him during day two lead me to believe that you were in cahoots, so of course I'm going to look at the remainder of your posts in that light to see if it supports my case.

Maybe if you weren't so desperate to leave Tapu Lele alive, you would have gotten away with it. Take your own advice and cut your losses next time.

This method fo scumhunting is majorly flawed, because if you were to look at everyone's posts in a light that suggests they are mafian, then of course they will look scummy! A veteran can make virtually anything said look scummy, with the correct argument - but that doesn't make it indicative.

If you assume everyone is town then no one would ever get lynched.

Your scummy behavior is what makes me think you're scum. There is a difference between viewing scummy behavior and coming to the conclusion that the player is scum and just assuming everyone is scum and fitting your case to reflect that.

A very real example: PMJ is tunneling me (as you admitted), and as evident by the tone of his posts, and how he is working in absolutes.

Oh no, please don't bring up the part where I openly admitted to tunneling, whatever will I do.

I speak in absolutes because I have nothing to fear and I'm not afraid of guessing wrong. People seem to think that mislynching is the end of the world when games where scum is lynched every day never happens (at least around here; I have virtually no mafia experience elsewehre). Failing guilty seer or tracker results, the town guesses wrong before it starts guessing right, so I don't get why everyone is so afraid of being called out for a mislynch.

If I was to look at this from a scum-light, then your "motive" would be to get a fairly active and experienced player mislynched (instead of, say, using that precious nightkill).

This is wifom (so business as usual for team bbninjas).

PMJ is saturating the thread with accusations against me, some highly exaggerating, and many misinformed or not indicative, to take advantage of a sheepy and quite town who will nearly always follow the most pushy and vocal player. This is a very real possibility, but isn't also very WIFOMy? In the same way, the claims made about my motives are just as WIFOMy - and would be equivalent to me taking a stab in the dark.

This couldn't be further from the truth. I haven't exaggerated anything in terms of the reasons why I want you dead. I've been very clear about my reasons, quoting the posts in question; your non-indicative argument is your own meta read and is therefore unreliable; and the fact that the town is quiet does not change the content of your posts.

tl;dr

For Point 1: (that I was trying to get people off Lele's lynch).
- I advocated FOR Lele's lynch, not against it. How could I have been casting doubt over the flip (to get people to move their vote), when I was also saying that Lele should definitely be lynched?

Because you literally made a post suggesting ways the flip could be faked. The hosts confirmed Tapu Lele as scum so directly asking the town to not lynch him would be tantamount to suicide once he flips.

For Point 2: (that my mindset is one of a mafian).
- This is a highly subjective argument, as it depends on whether or not me being self-aware actually is or should be indicative (or even anti-town).
- Other examples of mafian motives given by PMJ are the result of him looking at my posts in a mafian light, resulting in the twisting evidence or taking the mafian-indicative side when facing WIFOMy situations. (i.e. they are invalid / misinformed)

- It absolutely is anti-town regardless of whether or not that's what you do. That's how you play? Then you play scummy and shouldn't be surprised when you get called out.
- Already explained why this is not true and it was your scummy content which made me think you were scum.

Questions for @PMJ:
Do you think that tunneling and aggressiveness (as you have been displaying) is pro-town? Do you think that is anti-town? Sheepy town tend to follow charismatic pushes (as is the case in tunneling), so isn't tunneling misleading?

Tunneling is non-alignment indicative. Both town and scum have reasons to tunnel someone.

Tunneling is not misleading because it, by definition, cannot be. Tunneling happens when one person's lynch is pushed despite their being better cases. Well, there are no other cases, so I guess I'm not tunneling by definition, but I use the term because I will still push this lynch until one of us is dead. It's why I haven't bothered building a case on Celever yet.

- Why have you, by effect, been saying that by defending someone else, you and that player are scumbuddies? You decided that I was scumbuddies with Lele because I did not support their lynch during Day 1 (and was uncertain on the flip for Day 2).

Not supporting Tapu Lele's lynch during day one is excusable because during day one we didn't know Tapu Lele was scum. That all changed during day two but you still defended host-confirmed scum after we knew they were scum. That is the biggest difference between that and defending someone whose alignment was unknown but later flipped scum. You could argue you didn't know in that case but we all knew Tapu Lele was scum. But you still listened to his defense and went as far as suggesting ways the flip could be faked.

You suggested that I am scumbuddies with Celever because I questioned the validity of DoS' FoS on Celever, for defending Lele when Lele's role had been posted. Do you think that the scum will only ever defend their scumbuddies, and noone else? It would be irresponsible to dismiss this as WIFOM, otherwise the scumhunt will be linear - and mafia tactics are never linear!

I think they will on day two. No scum team wants to lose a member that early, especially not to some amateur-hour horseshit like a one-shot seer that realistically had a ~20% chance of hitting scum. I think you guys got blindsided by the reveal and you did what you could to save him without making it too obvious.

- How have I been 'defending' Lele more than Celever?

I don't know. I don't believe I ever said you were. I admitted that I haven't gone through Celever's posts yet, but I planned to before the end of day three.

- Or, if you think Celever is defended more, why aren't you pursuing Celever first?

Don't know if he defended more. I think I said this earlier and this post or in a different post but there's no point in actively pushing multiple lynches. Only one person can get lynched, and I did say that I want you dead more than Celever. That could change once I look at his posts but my case on him is really just for day four in case I get killed.

Make no mistake that you are both scum of the earth and I want to see you both dead <3



Any reason for why day 5?

bb has it right; he dies today, Celever dies tomorrow, gek gets a look day 5.

I think this is not true, people could’ve giving opinions on your BB case (althought I do agree time was short)

Sure, but people could have used that time to discuss anything, not just the case on bb. It was more for day three's benefit anyway, since I never intended for bb to be lynched day two.

We have room to mislynch is true, but a very bad mindset. Every mislynch is another day that scum can use their abilities and also NK.

See above for my reasoning for this. What you're saying is explicitly true, but every mislynch gives the town more info to make more informed reads.

And don't forget that since this is a role madness game, the town is likely armed to the teeth as well.

You’re acting like bb is 100% scum, but he isn’t. You changed his behaviour to look scummy while it could be town.

No, I definitely did not change or otherwise misinterpret his behavior.

Entertaining the defense of host-confirmed scum and suggesting ways the host-given flip could be faked is not town.
Worrying about being pressured for saying something scummy, so much so that he gives a defense without being asked for it, is not town.
Role fishing is not town.

The evidence of all of it is in my case against him (link for anyone who wants to reread). He did all of these things, none of which could possibly be viewed as pro-town.

Also, PMJ/Samwise scumteam anyone?

I am surprised it took this long for someone to suggest this. State your case.



Another question for @PMJ: Was it just Cel and I who defended Lele?

Don't know, I haven't paid much attention to anyone else's posts. I could probably tell you definitively if I went back and checked, but so could you. You're not asking my opinion on this, this is a yes or no question. Why do you ask?
 
Crunch time. Subtlety wasn't working so you had to start bringing out the extra-strength bullshit instead of the regular dosage. Actually suggesting someone else to lynch wouldn't do because there was no way Tapu Lele was realistically gonna not be lynched, and if he flipped scum then you would look really bad for directly suggesting we change our votes off of host-confirmed scum. But if someone else suggests it, then you're absolved of sin and you can accuse them of exactly what I'm accusing you of.
Emphasis mine. You knew it, I knew it, Celever knew it, scattered knew it, Jabber knew it and I'd imagine that even Tapu knew it. No matter how hard anyone tried, Lele was going to get lynched. And that's the contradiction in this theory - it makes zero sense for me to stick my head out (it's not like it was subtle), hoping that some miraculous saviour would whisk in and risk their neck to push an entirely different wagon. I've bussed people before; yet this is the wagon that I decide not to bus, despite Lele being host-revealed as scum, and their lynch being essentially 100% supported by the town? That isn't WIFOM - that is common sense.

As an aside and interesting note point, this case on me relies heavily on there being a convincing argument for the first part of the case, that I was trying to prevent Lele's lynch, as this was the only justification that can be given for reading my other points in a mafian-light, or indicative bias. Without that, it severely dampens at the least, disintegrates at the most.

----
Onwards to the questions! ^.^

Not supporting Tapu Lele's lynch during day one is excusable because during day one we didn't know Tapu Lele was scum. That all changed during day two but you still defended host-confirmed scum after we knew they were scum. That is the biggest difference between that and defending someone whose alignment was unknown but later flipped scum. You could argue you didn't know in that case but we all knew Tapu Lele was scum. But you still listened to his defense and went as far as suggesting ways the flip could be faked.
Okay, while I don't think this should be alignment indicative at all, let's entertain. I wasn't the only one who entertained the possibility of the flip being faked; in fact, I wasn't the first. In order: Jabber did (see: "it is worth noting", "no retroactive addendum"), Acetrainer did (see: "it depends on the basement chat"), Celever did (see: "he's not host-confirmed", "Lele would have just given up"), DoS did (more implicit, see: "bit...iffy // potential scum"), I did (see: "increasingly uncertain", "flip is fake"), GM Drac did (see: "the role is not really his"). Each of us still asserted that we think Lele should definitely be lynched today. So why is Cel and I an apparent scumbuddy, and not the rest of them?

(Of note is that the players who appeared to have no qualms whatsoever, were scattered, Luis, PMJ, Aqua and Yog.)

I think they will on day two. No scum team wants to lose a member that early, especially not to some amateur-hour horseshit like a one-shot seer that realistically had a ~20% chance of hitting scum. I think you guys got blindsided by the reveal and you did what you could to save him without making it too obvious.
I'm assuming that you were meaning "I think they will [defend only scumbuddies/defend buddies that are being lynched]" considering the context, but I'm not entirely sure. I'm also assuming that you were still responding to the Lele-related stuff here, and the Celever-bbn buddies link that came about 'cause I questioned DoS for his FoS on Celever. However, if you were to apply the notion that "I think they will on day two" in this context, I would not agree with you but would see where you are coming from.

I don't know. I don't believe I ever said you were. I admitted that I haven't gone through Celever's posts yet, but I planned to before the end of day three.

Don't know if he defended more. I think I said this earlier and this post or in a different post but there's no point in actively pushing multiple lynches. Only one person can get lynched, and I did say that I want you dead more than Celever. That could change once I look at his posts but my case on him is really just for day four in case I get killed.

You probably didn't say it explicitly, it would be derived from the fact that you are pushing me today and not Celever; thus, you must think I'm scummier than Celever. Considering that the case on me is based primarily on my 'defending' of Lele, and that you've said similarly in regards to Celever, you must also think that I defended Lele more significantly / suspiciously than Celever to be pursuing me first.

Anyway, you're saying that you haven't gotten around to Celever's posts yet, and because you find I'm scummy, you haven't bothered looking into said posts right now (because there's no point pushing multiple lynches)? But surely in that case, you would already know the general gist of Celever's Day 2 posts, and would have seen he was much more actively 'defending' Lele. So it comes down to that bolded part - why do you want me dead (or want me to die first) more that Celever?

Don't know, I haven't paid much attention to anyone else's posts. I could probably tell you definitively if I went back and checked, but so could you. You're not asking my opinion on this, this is a yes or no question. Why do you ask?
Yeah, you're right - I wasn't looking for an opinion. You are pushing me for defending Lele, even though a number of other players did the same thing (Jabber, Ace, Cel, DoS, me, Drac to varying degrees of subtly) - and I wanted to know whether you or not you are aware of this. In light of that, however, what are your thoughts on all of those players - and how they defended Lele?
 
PMJ and bb stop talking to each other- everyone has enough posts from you to decide who they think is right. If not, they will ask or vote. Until that happens, you got no reason to keep discussing unless you are scum.
 
PMJ and bb stop talking to each other- everyone has enough posts from you to decide who they think is right. If not, they will ask or vote. Until that happens, you got no reason to keep discussing unless you are scum.

Agreed. In fact I think PMJ has done more to incriminate himself than BB has. I find it odd that PMJ is pushing so hard for BB's lynch, he was made multiple large posts on BB and he hasn't really done much else. It isn't helpful, and if we lynch PMJ or BB it gives us the most information anyone else would be a shot in the dark. We lynch BB he flips town or we get lucky and he flips scum it gives us very little information (other than all he's done is pushed BB's lynch) . However, if we lynch PMJ and he flips scum than it clears BB and gives us some good information. If he flips town than BB is probably scum.

##UNVERB
##VERB: PMJ
 
You mean this post (the only one he made):

What exactly do you mean by not overlooking it? What should we make of this?

That was a sudden name drop

Yah, that's the one. It smacked to me of quieter mafia getting prodded in scumchat to "make sure you get in there and make a post or two!" at a point when Lele was dead and the most town thing you could do was vote on him. Reading between the lines, he put his vote in the *right* place, without seemingly having read any more of the thread. Or any of the thread for that matter. Like no comments on anything. Just appear, vote, bail.

Apart from that, there is waaaay too much going on in-thread for me to keep up with. I can't follow all these walls of text with the limited time that I have. I will have to rely on general assumptions and some gut-draw votes here.
 
I am not long into the thread, but reading through right now. Of the current options on table, I am fine to ##VOTE:BBninjas

Looking back over the RVS, he seems to steer the banter away from Lele whenever he can, on to TE or jplap. By the same logic, I figure jplap is probably clean because there is too much bants directly with Lele.
 
Scattered Mind is another that is probably not scum, due to the early game pressure on Lele before it was cool. Jabber the same.

Meanwhile when BB is forced to interact with Lele after he becomes so topical, he is making posts like this;

Regarding Tapu Lele, I don't this role-fishing indicates that he's mafian. Lele seems to have thought through exactly what information he wanted to achieve (and how he wanted to use that to scumhunt), and so I think he had innocent intentions for asking for a semi-claim. That doesn't make it a good play, but I don't think it was a malicious play, which is what this case is revolving around. @Celever (and anyone else really), considering your post here, do you think Lele was intentionally obtaining information as to steer the nightkill?

Which to me is 1) attempting to steer town away from a Lele lynch and 2) employing the classic scum tactic of asking for opinions. Town doesn't care all that much if other people agree. They just state their own opinions and don't look too hard for validation.
 
There's also a whole mess of minor stuff that we can get off VCA'ing the first Day or so's worth of posts; it's just that it's too tenuous on its own to rely on. The main information I wanted was in reference to bb and scattered.
What information have you got in relation to these two, then? How has Lele's flip changed your reads of those two?
Jabs said:
I'm not trying to make an argument that Samwise is town rn; just that your points on him aren't as unequivocal as you're making them out to be. Even the rebuttal you post here is WIFOM.
I mean the point you're referring to directly here does undercut your idea that Samwise wouldn't've been able to do what I said because he's new, though. It's barely even WIFOM -- no matter what the mafia team actually is, I would put money on the likelihood that someone in the scumchat said "we have to buss Lele / throw Lele under the bus" or something in that vein.
Jabs said:
This isn't the point of the part of my post you quoted, but fortunately you indirectly answered it later. I don't remember bb being super self-aware as town in the past –– maybe because he's just scum so damn often –– but if you (or bb) can find references for his townmeta that'd be awesome.
Accidentally doing the right thing? Sounds like me in a nutshell :3 But anyway, I don't think I've ever actually seen anyone look back through older games to find evidence when they've been asked to find it in this sorta vein, and I don't wanna break that trend :U People end up with different impressions of people's metas anyway, but this has been established as bb's meta for like, years, so it's a little surprising you say you don't remember it Dx
Jabs said:
Assertiveness (or lack thereof) is not indicative of alignment on its own. It's just part of a player's meta. Camoclone is the obvious example.
Yeah I agree, it's not alignment indicative, but therefore neither is the inverse, which is what PMJ argued, and that was just expressing times where being assertive isn't preferable, which PMJ also argued for.
Jabs said:
I'd genuinely really like to see that case on bb you were going to draw up. It feels like you're trying to backpedal off his lynch, which makes no sense if you weren't his scumbuddy because you landed your vote on Samwise before you started having this problem with how PMJ's been playing –– which, you've mentioned, is what's causing you to doubt bb's lynch.
Samwise has always been a channel to lynching bb for me, because of connections I felt I'd noticed between the two of them, so my vote being on him was not me trying to backpedal off bb. However, I'm contemplating ditching both of them in favour of PMJ (btw the above two posts make me think Yog could be mafia if PMJ flips mafia, but that's tenuous).
@Celever - What made you think that according to this role flip, Tapu Lele had no connections with the scumchat?
Lele's role reads to me like an adaptation of the traitor role, which is characterised by the player not being in the scumchat with their fellow mafians and, at times, not even knowing who their buddies are. This is mainly thanks to this line of the PM:
scattered mind said:
Which is admittedly true, except for the fact that you can’t find them yet…
Which is, I think, in reference to other mafian rolenames. If not, the whole "trapped in the basement" is flavour enough to support this theory.

This is particularly interesting because sometimes the mafia team doesn't find out who the traitor is, either; they only find out that they have a member of the mafia team detached from the main group, and not the identity of who that is. This means that reading into Day 1 interactions with Lele aren't necessarily reliable, but we can't know one way or the other.
Only scum should think about fitting in, town shouldn’t. Doesn’t that make Gekki’s hammer inherently scum?
In theory yes, but unfortunately it seems like a lot of the time townies are equally concerned with it, or maybe a little less so. Either way, particularly more inexperienced players end up falling into this habit, which Gekki is.
 
Mordacai's contributions on day one are not really inspiring.
Now we can see his vote came at the right time for scum to flip target.
 
Lele's role reads to me like an adaptation of the traitor role, which is characterised by the player not being in the scumchat with their fellow mafians and, at times, not even knowing who their buddies are. This is mainly thanks to this line of the PM:
Which is, I think, in reference to other mafian rolenames. If not, the whole "trapped in the basement" is flavour enough to support this theory.

This is particularly interesting because sometimes the mafia team doesn't find out who the traitor is, either; they only find out that they have a member of the mafia team detached from the main group, and not the identity of who that is. This means that reading into Day 1 interactions with Lele aren't necessarily reliable, but we can't know one way or the other.

Yet, you stated that it was clear that Lele was not in the scumchat. This begs the question whether it was a scumslip or not, since you didn't care to correct any player who analyzed other players based on their interactions with Lele before the reveal.
 
I don't have a case on Celever (yet), but I do find it worthy of note that Tapu Lele voted for Celever in the patrol certamen. Keep in mind that these votes were cast before Tapu Lele's role was revealed, so assuming that they couldn't vote for themselves to receive the prize, it would make perfect sense for Tapu Lele to vote for one of his buddies. After all, there was no reason to expect Tapu Lele to be outed as scum, so there was less incentive to keep their connection secret.
This is a key example of exactly what PMJ is doing wrong with his case: he's shaping reality to fit his narrative that me and bb are mafia, rather than observing reality to try and figure out who the mafians are. Not only did Lele vote for me for the certamen, everyone in the chat did. Plus, the entire transcript of the QT was posted in the thread, which demonstrates that there was no opposition to me getting the certamen reward.
PMJ said:
Yes we did. The hosts said he was scum. We have no reason to think that the hosts are liars, so the simplest explanation is that they are telling the truth.
Plus, he's using faulty logic exercises such as here where he uses Occam's Razor which, in mafia, is used exclusively by mafians when they're right in hindsight.
PMJ said:
I explained this in my reply to Celever. Relying on meta reads pigeonholes players into playing a certain way and this can be easily abused by scum. All they have to do is play their "town meta" and use it to discredit any suspicion. Notice that Celever, bbninjas, and scattered mind all tried to discredit my argument by playing the "this is how bb plays as town" meta card. This completely excuses scummy play and instead of letting bbninjas get away with it, he should be held accountable.

Anyone who knows they have a "town meta" can exploit this fact when playing as scum.

I bet bbninjas can. He's been relying on the "this is my town meta, guys" argument all game long.
And finally, his attempt to entirely discredit metareads as a tool is just.... unique? And the logic he's using in tangent with it is also really strange: he says meta reads pigeonhole players in playing certain ways, but actually the entire purpose of it is to allow for people to play with their own specific playstyles. The alternative would be, in a game where metareads are hypothetically never used, a game where everyone has a mutual idea of what a townie should act like and a mutual idea of what a mafian should act like, and any players who diverge from the townie mould would deserve to get lynched right there and then. And that's obviously not the game that mafia is -- or should be.

But the absolute most crucial reason why PMJ's case totally sucks is this:
PMJ said:
Yes, I will not deny this. When I believe I've found scum, I tunnel them hard.
This is fine in theory, but not in tandem wtih this:
I haven't really looked at Celever's posts, but it's good to hear that he apparently set this in motion. Doesn't mean much because they're both definitely scum.
Remember, PMJ first posted at the end of Day 2 and in that time hasn't "really looked" at my posts, which is worrying as I'm one of the primary contributors to this thread; I'm sure no one would object to top 5. And, when people look through games, they tend to look at the most notable players first, and then get more obscure from there. So if PMJ hasn't "really looked" at the posts of one of the top 5 contributors to the thread, that means he's looked at less than 5 of them total. Which, finally, means this case has been made because PMJ wants bb to be lynched, and not because PMJ thinks bb is mafia: it would be a massive flaw in rationalism to tunnel bb as massively as he is right now without having read the posts of (m)any other people.

@PMJ please post a full reads list of all players in the thread, with reasons given for your stance on each one. This is to ensure that you've actually read this game thread and, on balance, think bb is the best option, as opposed to the only one you've looked at so far.
 
Yah, that's the one. It smacked to me of quieter mafia getting prodded in scumchat to "make sure you get in there and make a post or two!" at a point when Lele was dead and the most town thing you could do was vote on him. Reading between the lines, he put his vote in the *right* place, without seemingly having read any more of the thread. Or any of the thread for that matter. Like no comments on anything. Just appear, vote, bail.

Apart from that, there is waaaay too much going on in-thread for me to keep up with. I can't follow all these walls of text with the limited time that I have. I will have to rely on general assumptions and some gut-draw votes here.

Interesting theory, although it isn't really worth to check right now because unless he starts posting chances are he will get modkilled.
 
Yet, you stated that it was clear that Lele was not in the scumchat. This begs the question whether it was a scumslip or not, since you didn't care to correct any player who analyzed other players based on their interactions with Lele before the reveal.
Nah, if you read the wiki page I linked it actually says on there that the rest of the mafia team doesn't necessarily know the identity of the traitor, and this is what made me think of how that could be a big factor in this game. I kinda forgot that that's a mechanic people use because I haven't seen it used in a while.
 
Remember, PMJ first posted at the end of Day 2 and in that time hasn't "really looked" at my posts, which is worrying as I'm one of the primary contributors to this thread; I'm sure no one would object to top 5. And, when people look through games, they tend to look at the most notable players first, and then get more obscure from there. So if PMJ hasn't "really looked" at the posts of one of the top 5 contributors to the thread, that means he's looked at less than 5 of them total. Which, finally, means this case has been made because PMJ wants bb to be lynched, and not because PMJ thinks bb is mafia: it would be a massive flaw in rationalism to tunnel bb as massively as he is right now without having read the posts of (m)any other people.

I also noticed that, and the fact that he said earlier that you are also scummy is really confusing. If PMJ have not read Celever's posts, how can he be sure he is scummy?
 
Nah, if you read the wiki page I linked it actually says on there that the rest of the mafia team doesn't necessarily know the identity of the traitor, and this is what made me think of how that could be a big factor in this game. I kinda forgot that that's a mechanic people use because I haven't seen it used in a while.

Again, you said it was clear, not "could be" or something in that line.
 
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