Okay so I'm still super annoyed about that hammer. I'll talk about my strategy going into EoD yesterday and what I was doing in a bit but first I want to ask a couple of questions:
@The Last Shaymin Why did you choose not to vote Piplup and flip onto Ephe? Were you aware that your vote was the hammer?
@scattered mind What were your results?
Everyone, do not vote. This is LYLO and if a townie places down an incorrect vote this will end the game since scum can quickhammer (it's a bit harder since they can't coordinate, but it's still way too big a risk to leave open).
I believe that the optimal strategy here in LYLO is to follow the leader. Simply put, scattered is confirmed town and scum can't get lynched without him, so he should pick a vote with about a day left in the day and we all need to follow him. Obviously, we can make our cases to scattered and interacting and solving is still crucial, but if a townie votes differently than him or he votes a townie town isn't winning this game.
(If votes were locked, there's a strategy here that I like more than this one, but they're not so I think this is optimal.)
I'm annoyed about the hammer because I did a lot of work to rearrange my schedule so I could be online at EoD and then I see the day has ended with this awful hammer.But the hammer really doesn't effect the day much as it was ending already right? Understand about the vote, so I would abstaining for now. Fair enough about following the leader.
Normally I'd do a bunch of conditional probability stuff for that cop check based on sanities and frames but that sounds like actual death on mobile so if anyone else could work that out that would be great. (But also please only do this if you have the time I'd rather have reads and be solving the game than focusing on this.)
I'm annoyed about the hammer because I did a lot of work to rearrange my schedule so I could be online at EoD and then I see the day has ended with this awful hammer.
Drac, if you're town, we need to find eachother ASAP. Please talk to me about your reads, thoughts on other players, personal mindset, approach to this game, or really anything. I need to find the other townie out there and I need whoever it is to project their solvyness and help me find them.
Figuring out exact probabilities with these cop checks takes a lot more work because you need to scenario map possible scum teams, scattered's sanity, and frame targets and see which combinations are still left. These results I think should make it more likely Piplup and I are aligned and thus Piplup is town but there's so many variables that you'd need to just map out scenarios to be sure.DO you believe SM's result might be wrong? I belive 75% chance the result is correct what's ur %?
- NinjaPenguin - You're the main driving force of this game, with your amount of contribution i can be 99% certain you're aligned with town. it's hard to fathom you would put this much effort if you were scum in this small setup, not many mind game could be played.
- scattered mind - The only 1 left that claimed cop, so this is 99% save already hence no comment needed.
- The Last Shaymin & TheAquaPiplup - these 2 are the only possible scum left. TLS activity is the usual iirc i wonder if he lurk more. About Aqua, the host did say he was rather mia at the moment so love to wait what his reply is.
This vote feels like it legitimizes Piplup as a real wagon, but at the same time it's so hedgy that it could easily be one designed to be removed at the end of the day. I'd give minor unaligned points for Shaymin and Piplup but not as much as I have with Drac's Piplup vote.I think i also agree about the aquapiplup. Even though they both have almost no posts (me too), drac at least adds a little bit to the conversation.
this is, however, an extremely weak vote and i think that it could easily switch between the two.
##VOTE: TheAquaPiplup
DO you believe SM's result might be wrong? I belive 75% chance the result is correct what's ur %?
I'm leaning towards Aqua as town also but remember that the scum has a framer and that can mess with everything. If you are insane Piplup and I are 100% both town but there's a significant chance that you are sane and I was framed Night 0 because apparently everyone felt like targeting me then lmao.I really start to believe I am insane cop. Otherwise NP is scum and I just can't see this.
He successfully explained all of my FoS on him including the tie thing. Even if he is scum - I'd say kudus to you.
If I go by this mindset then Aqua is town too. That leaves GM Drac and Shaymin.
Would that mean that both cops would be catching you as scum or would the results be swapped?I'm leaning towards Aqua as town also but remember that the scum has a framer and that can mess with everything. If you are insane Piplup and I are 100% both town but there's a significant chance that you are sane and I was framed Night 0 because apparently everyone felt like targeting me then lmao.
I don't want to be hasty with clears based on mech info and I still think TLS-Piplup has a decent amount of partner equity. I really need to take a meta drive into how Drac treats his partners as scum and see if the way he's treated TLS fits into that or not and I hope I can get onto a computer in time for that because going through multiple threads on mobile PB is death.
Why did you vote Ephe? Why didn't you want to vote Piplup?oh, sorry. I didnt even know that it was a hammer, i just voted for them like any other vote. I'm still not entirely sure what a hammer is, but i was more used to the bigger games so i didnt look at the numbers, sorry
my reads the last day were that scattered, NP, and jade were definitely town, and that everyone else was just neutral (i'm bad at this)
If I was framed that night sane cop would check me as scum and insane cop would check me as town.Would that mean that both cops would be catching you as scum or would the results be swapped?