After looking over Eph and Amici’s initial interaction again, I think it’s unlikely they’re both Mafia, though it’s possible one of them may be. Their initial interactions just seemed like jokeposts, so nothing too bad there, and then Ami makes that post about how we need to be careful with our eliminations and that the Firefighter should avoid claiming if at all possible; again, good points, but not completely alignment indicative. And after that Eph describes Ami as “locktown.” Naive trust or pocketing attempt by Eph? Possibly.
I am liking the points bbninjas is raising and would like to see Vom and Eph’s responses to them.
don't like this post. w/w or non w/w interactions are super easy to throw out as wolves. Also feels like IIOA (haven't clarified this but it's Information Instead of Analysis, which is what scum do to try and look like they have content) – it basically just recounts the me/Amici interaction but like, simplified.
The conclusions here are also kinda hedgy: it's possible one of them may be [mafia]; naive trust or pocketing attempt... possibly. Puts up a lot of possibilities with vague ideas and doesn't try to conclude much.
##UNSUSPECT: bbninjas - although i still very much suspect bb, i feel like my vote's not needed on him right now
##BLEH: MegaPod_781
I
really like Eph's vote on Mega in hindsight. The information instead of analysis point is something I brought up on Day 2, but Eph noticed this and pointed it out immediately. Eph also has an early-day wagon on them that is building steam at this time. Scum!Eph would not benefit from pushing their scumbuddy using a legitimate scumtell, since this risks Mega becoming the alternate wagon and making the Day 1 elim be between two scum (very bad for scum!Eph).
Vom
bbninjas
Scattered mind
I lean slightly town on these three players so far. They all seem to be asking good questions to get reads or clarify info.
Amici
Fiery Lugia
jade
Celever
These players I read completely null at the moment, because either there’s not enough posts from them to go on, or the ones there are aren’t totally alignment indicative.
Eph
]I was feeling a bit conflicted on him [Eph]. The “town lock” on Amici was rather odd, but Eph did seem to be making genuine assessments of other players since then. But yeah, that comment about discussing other people besides him seems quite defensive. Especially since other people
were being discussed in addition to him. I was actually starting to think Eph’s behavior wasn’t worth pursuing with a vote yet, but wanting to shift attention off himself is a red flag.
##UNMOCK: bbninjas
##PRESSXTODOUBT: Ephemera
When will
@Celever and
@Fiery_Lugia come to provide some thoughts on the game? I was actually gonna pressure vote Celever for dropping off the radar in this post if I didn’t hit “refresh” and see that suspish play by Eph.
Mega definitely seems to be voting with the intent to eliminate here. He even posts a full readlist with Eph singled out at the very bottom. Why would scum single out their scumbuddy so early?
Mega's readlist here is also
very interesting. Mega's neutral reads are all town except for FieryJabber who is unknown. We also have Vom / myself / scattered in the top; I can see scum here. However, the general consensus at this stage seemed to be that Vom / myself / scattered were all townie, so Mega could also just be reflecting the consensus. I'm not sure what to make of this just yet.
Tbh, I do see the points you raise against Celever. Saying he’d been preparing a quote wall but having almost no thoughts to share does look rather suspicious. And then looking closer at his reason for “spiritually voting” you, his comment about you “not solving” seems odd to me. I’m still wary of you for the whole attention-shifting thing, buuut I don’t think you’ve been short on questioning and judging other players, so in all fairness I think his reason for keeping a vote on you is, uh, lazy and wrong. So, I’ll go ahead and do what I was gonna do earlier, because you two have sorta swapped places on my leans list after some thought :v
##UNPRESSX: Ephemera
##INSERTCLEVERVERBHERE: Celever
Eph doesn't look as good in this backpedal from Mega, purely because Mega's reasons are very weak (he's switching votes because... Eph's been posting reads?). I wonder why Mega didn't just stay on the Eph wagon when it's clearly better to eliminate town!Eph than town!Cel? It's possible that there was pressure being put on Eph voters from a few people, and with the Eph wagon losing steam, Mega might have decided it's in his best interest to jump ship. I'll check later if noone else does.
Dang, I might’ve been able to show up for EOD but I had a dentist appointment around then. Welp.
Tbh, despite their chaotic start, I’m reading Eph as pretty genuine and rational now, and admittedly, their case on bbninjas is making a lot of sense to me. I didn’t even catch the total 180 bb had made on the Celever wagon, which makes me trust Eph more for finding and pointing that out.
Reading back a bit, there are also some other details I found a bit off about bb that I probably overlooked earlier because he’d been so vocal. For instance, this response he made to Vom for suggesting the Cel wagon:
So, he didn’t mean it seriously in the first place? I’m not sure about buying that.
From what I could tell, Eph wasn’t running a “smear campaign” on bb at all, so this actually seems pretty defensive looking back. Oh, and look, an insinuation that Cel was lying. Despite bb’s later opposition to the Cel wagon. Hm.
Also, minor nitpick, but I don’t think a Townie usually wants fellow players to “stop talking” about game related stuff, since discussion is kinda what we do to figure out the game :v
And this tidbit about how he doesn’t like the Cel wagon he suggested.
##BYEBYENEXT?: bbninjas
Mega's started to get very defensive of Eph here. He even went out of his way to explain that Eph is trustworthy, and I don't quite understand what Mega's trying to achieve here if Eph is town. This could easily be scumbuddying,
but it's also likely that Mega wants to explain why they're getting Eph's case on me. i.e. Mega's doing some self-pres, so that they don't get voted for having poor progression.
Good points Mega!
##VOTE:bbninjas
The defensivness there is quite telling. Eph wasn't running any case on bbninjas specifically as he was just trying to find out whether or not a scum is among his voters, which with this small setup is very probable.
Scattered is very quick to support Mega here, which is
really odd if scattered is scum. Why would scum!scattered immediately link themselves to a scumbuddy knowing that I'd flip town, putting scrutiny on both himself and his scumbuddy? Usually scumbuddies try to keep some distance (and that's what I'm used to here), which is even more crucial in teams of two. Was scattered hoping to get towncred for "obviously" buddying with scum? Doubt it. It seems
very risky - scattered couldn't guarantee that towncred in any way.
mindmelded hard with the bb/mega interactions, imo there's likely to be one wolf there, but not two. Same for the Jade point – did he say he'd make an ISO?
...
In the meantime, I still believe in my bb case from yesterday – bb's D2 is somewhat better but I'll have to see if that really is enough to change the whole point of my case.
##ISO: bbninjas
I was trying to figure out why Eph voted me instead of Mega in this PoE, but after rereading the
blue, I think Eph's vote makes complete sense. Eph had a case on me already; it would be suss if Eph went for Mega instead of me.
In fact, Eph seems to be in the process of re-evaluating their case on me, and voting / pressuring me makes complete sense as part of this process. Eph does re-evaluate on the next vote (tick on progression!), decides that they don't want to elim me on Day 2, and then
asks whether an amici vote or mega/bbn vote is better - literally leaving the elim in the hands of the town. Why would scum!Eph let town decide the fate of their scumbuddy? Seems a bit absurd.
I would like to point out scattered joined this wagon pretty late in the day despite making arguably better cases on both Lily and Jade. And now he's gunning for bb for...reasons?
you mean you dont understand the case on bb?
I understand the case on bb, what I don't understand is why you seem to tunnel on it, especially over your own cases.
I don't like Amici's posting, but I still think Mega or bb are both better options, and from those two I think Mega is the better option. Besides my previous post, I don't see anyone overly invested in maintaining those 2 as the main wagons, so that solidifies my thinking that it's not v/v, and so one of them should be our elimination for the Day I think.
Also, why is scattered never scum? Wondering because he's not especially high on my rainbow.
Oh yeah, She-Ra taking over the forums.
##UNVERB: scattered mind ##PRIMESEESALL: mEGApOD_108
Vom's progression checks out here (she consistently thought Mega elim was better and the bbn elim was weird).
Thoughts™:
- I don't think MegaPod and bb are both scum. I think one of them might be because how they are interacting, but bb jumped the gun and actually made a valid point against MegaPod so I wanna hold off and see how Mega responds.
- ...
- I don't think bb was being overly defensive about Ephe, but he definitely is now. Still, I think only one of Mega and bb is scum (if any) and atm I'm leaning towards scum!Mega so I'm not sure what to make of this yet. Like I said, I want to see @MegaPod_781 's response first.
- I don't get what scattered is doing right now. He says he made two different cases on D1, but didn't pursue either in favour of a lurker lim, which at this point scattered obviously hasn't had time to answer because that post just went up, so we'll have to wait for that. Now, he's going for bbninjas, once again completely ditching both his cases, not bothering to purse either one at all despite some nudging from my part to talk more about Lily, one of his original cases. scattered has in general ignored or just meh'd nudging attempts from other players, so in short: ##NOTCOLDCASESYET: scattered mind
However, I am a little perturbed that Vom wanted to hold out for Mega's response before committing to a Mega or bbn wagon. This is a
classic tactic for scum tossing up whether to bus their buddy. If Mega's defence is convincing, then scum!Vom doesn't need to bus. But if Mega messes up their defense, then bussing means Vom can get easy towncred off a sinking ship.
