Oh, I almost forgot about my idea. It's a gamble, but it's better than just losing if nothing comes up. Earlier, when I talked about assuming no one primed targets were eliminated, I wondered what if we did this on purpose, retroactively? i.e. eliminating someone we think has been primed by scum.
If it works, we deny scum having majority post-ignition, since that person would effectively be removed from the game twice, instead of two different people (a mislim and the person who was gonna die anyways). If it doesn't work, well, we lose the game, but if we attempt this at all that means we had no better odds so we'd have lost the game anyway.
*Fire Emblem voice* Allow me to demonstrate!
For this example, I'll use me, because I know I'm town and I could see scum thinking I'm annoying and trying to prime me at some point.
There are 6 of us right now, and it's Day 4. Assuming all primed targets are still alive, and all priming went through successfully, that means 3 people are ripe for ignition right now. If we were to eliminate a town player who hasn't been primed, that leaves 5 people, and after the ignition that only leaves 2, and we lose.
However, if we eliminate a town player who has been primed, that leaves 5 people, but 3 post-ignition - two town and one scum, making PoE incredibly easy.
Now before you throw me out the window, think about it - I don't think any of us has anything solid on anyone as of this post. We would have to be really sure (though that also goes for the scum lim, which odds do you like better?) and we'd have to come to a decision, but I think everyone should mention at least one reason why they would like to be eliminated (or not) for this.
I'll go first: I'm totally down for eliminating myself for this. I'm fairly sure one there has been a priming attempt on me at some point, because I have been popping in and out putting pressure where I think there needs to be, and really I'd like to think I'm at least somewhat threatening to the scum team - or its remain, anyway. Besides, it's my idea, and no one would even think about it if I didn't volunteer.
...not that me volunteering ensures consideration, but at least it shows I'm serious about this and not just scum trying to mislead the town into a loss.
I don't see this working. I don't even know what we would gain from an additional Day besides more time to discuss leads.
Not in particular, but if you read through it you saw the gradual decline in pressure from my part so you know it's around there. How do they remain relevant? Have you seen anything recently that draws your attention? Just a reminder that that happened in the midst of D1 chaos.
Scumtells are scumtells no matter when in the game they happen. If you have legitimate reason to believe somebody is scum on D1, and nothing happens to refute that reason, it's still relevant on D4 regardless of how they've changed their play since then. I agree that Eph has done more actual scumhunting and built reads off of more actual evidence in the last couple Days, but changing their play after being pressured to do so is NAI. Meanwhile, early scumtells
do indicate alignment.
To clarify, I'm still unsure myself how much of Eph's earlygame play to chalk up to inexperience. They say they're trying out a new mode of play, which I respect, but at the same time eight games is plenty of experience to know not to do some of stuff they did (gut-based reads, OMGUSing). My general point here is that it doesn't make sense for them to fall off your scumdar purely by changing the play that got them onto it in the first place.
That's fair, I myself didn't object to it, but I don't think giving a percentage strengthens the case on him. If anything, I'd say it's actually uncharacteristic of him to go that hard (or really to just tunnel) on someone, especially after complaining that I tunneled Ephe D1.
I think he had pretty legitimate reasons; he had solidified his reads on everybody else as at least lean-town, and moreover it wasn't just PoE; we all had plenty of reasons to expect that Amici was scum. It might be a little out of character, but then it's pretty rare that somebody can have all their reads that tied up in the first place. And I stand by the statement that scum would be extremely unlikely to claim 80% confidence in an elimination they know will flip town.
Okay, now you're just reducing my whole body of work to my D1. Bleh. I have shown. All my thoughts. About why Jade/vom/bb should probably be town based on the mega vote and their other behavior. About why I believe scattered is town, not just on the D1 vote, but on his later actions and thoughts (admittedly not a lot, but that's what I'm going back for). About why Amici needed to be the elimination yesterday. I really dislike this continued dismissal of pretty much everything I've done, reducing it to "bad reads."
It's not my intention to reduce everything you've done in this game to your D1. Again, you've responded admirably to the questions put to you since I subbed in; in the last Day-and-a-bit you've developed your reads substantially based on things people have said and the way they've voted over the course of the game. But the facts as I see them are like this: You spent much of the first two Days making unsubstantiated statements like "this feels scummy" and pushing cases for which the evidence essentially amounted to gut feelings. Many players, including Vom and bb, pressured you to develop your reads further, and at some point (I think toward the end of D2, but I could be misremembering my read-through) you began to do that.
However, nothing has happened to discount people's early scumreads on you, and as such the wagon that started on you on D1 still holds all the same merit it did then.
Another thing: all of the things you've said are not necessarily scum traits. The one that comes more often from scum is insubstantial reads – but I don't have insubstantial reads, and it's really triggering to keep hearing that three days later.
I need to reread and it's not gonna happen tonight, but I know you've had insubstantial reads this game.
OMGUS is only NAI if the player doing it doesn't know any better; for somebody who has the experience of eight games behind them, it's an unsubstantiated read, and only scum tries to push eliminations for which they know they have no concrete evidence.
while my "flip-floppiness" is making sure I don't lock my mindset into a mistaken world.
A certain amount of flip-floppiness is expected, for sure; you don't want to be tunneling. But too much flip-floppiness is a scumtell because of how scum want to cover all their bases. This might be a fair defense; I need to go back and reread to make sure.
Now for this. I wanted another opinion on jade/bb/vom because I worried that I could be locking them town in my head when they shouldn't be.
That's fair.
As for bb/mega interactions, they were casing each other pretty hard, and they were pretty much contradictory cases – if one was valid, the other was invalid, and so on. The state of the thread meant that this was highly unlikely to be v/v – had they been v/v like D1, wolves would have likely stepped back and let it continue, whereas people in thread D2 were actively participating in the bb v. mega discussion.
That's also fair. I think Vom(?) was the one who initially asked you about your D2 bb/Mega read, so tagging
@Vom in case she missed this and has anything more to say about it.
