Do you have anything to say about my answer to you about bbninjas?
Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!
- Thread starter NinjaPenguin
- Start date
- Status
sorry i havent been active, but i need to make a vote, and do it quick, so im sorry cel but
##vote: cel
##vote: cel
What's your reasoning behind this?
I mean nice.
##UNVOTE
##VOTE: Amici
Amici has been sitting idly by watching the town destroy themselves, poking in to not contribute but look like they are. Like, 100% Amici is mafia and y'all should vote him tomorrow so here's my EoD reminder for when I flip town lol. IK this isn't a great case but it's true, I play by instincts and instincts say Amici = scum.
Day 1 End
Final Vote Count:Celever (5)-Amici, MegaPod_781, Jadethepokemontrainer, scattered mind, Fiery_Lugia
Ephemera (2)-Vom, bbninjas
bbninjas (1)-Ephemera
Amici (1)-Celever
Vote History:
#20-Celever voted bbninjas
#23-Amici voted Celever
#27-Ephemera voted Celever
#30-Vom voted Fiery_Lugia
#32-Ephemera voted Vom
#41-Ephemera voted Ephemera
#42-Ephemera voted Vom
#47-Vom voted Ephemera
#51-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#55-Celever voted Ephemera
#81-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#102-bbninjas voted Ephemera
#120-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#123-Ephemera voted MegaPod_781
#139-MegaPod_781 voted Ephemera
#151-Scattered mind voted Amici
#162-Ephemera voted Celever
#244-MegaPod_781 voted Celever
#249-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Celever
#268-scattered mind voted Fiery_Lugia
#276-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#288-scattered mind voted Celever
#297-Celever voted bbninjas
#302-Fiery_Lugia voted Celever
#304-Celever voted Amici
#23-Amici voted Celever
#27-Ephemera voted Celever
#30-Vom voted Fiery_Lugia
#32-Ephemera voted Vom
#41-Ephemera voted Ephemera
#42-Ephemera voted Vom
#47-Vom voted Ephemera
#51-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#55-Celever voted Ephemera
#81-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#102-bbninjas voted Ephemera
#120-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#123-Ephemera voted MegaPod_781
#139-MegaPod_781 voted Ephemera
#151-Scattered mind voted Amici
#162-Ephemera voted Celever
#244-MegaPod_781 voted Celever
#249-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Celever
#268-scattered mind voted Fiery_Lugia
#276-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#288-scattered mind voted Celever
#297-Celever voted bbninjas
#302-Fiery_Lugia voted Celever
#304-Celever voted Amici
Celever was eliminated. They were:
Town Tree
The day has ended, so you may not post. The Night 1 post and flavor will be up shortly.
Night 1 Start
The day was a long one, filled with many debates as the animals turned on eachother in a frenzy of fur and feathers.
But suddenly, the group began to hear a loud chewing noise. The squirrel, perched on a tree branch, was chomping away at a stockpile of chestnuts. In a combination of jealously and hunger, the others turned on him:
"Would any real, concerned animal be snacking in this very important time?"
"Can a real animal even chew that loudly?"
"How did he even get those nuts in the first place?"
"I bet the humans gave them to him in return for his favor!"
That last line was met with furious applause, and the animals promptly began a motion to kick the squirrel out of the forest council.
"I-I was just hungry," the squirrel said.
Yet he was only received with a mountain of "shut up, you traitor!" and the motion passed, forcing him out of the council.
Unfortunately for the animals, they lost a member of their own, as the squirrel was simply a loyal member of the forest council. Though he could stick around in subsequent days, they had already lost one of their numbers.
But suddenly, the group began to hear a loud chewing noise. The squirrel, perched on a tree branch, was chomping away at a stockpile of chestnuts. In a combination of jealously and hunger, the others turned on him:
"Would any real, concerned animal be snacking in this very important time?"
"Can a real animal even chew that loudly?"
"How did he even get those nuts in the first place?"
"I bet the humans gave them to him in return for his favor!"
That last line was met with furious applause, and the animals promptly began a motion to kick the squirrel out of the forest council.
"I-I was just hungry," the squirrel said.
Yet he was only received with a mountain of "shut up, you traitor!" and the motion passed, forcing him out of the council.
Unfortunately for the animals, they lost a member of their own, as the squirrel was simply a loyal member of the forest council. Though he could stick around in subsequent days, they had already lost one of their numbers.
Do not post in the thread during the night phase.
Everyone had an acceptable amount of posting during Day 1, but the following player missed the average of two posts per day standard and should increase their activity level in Day 2 or risk being subbed out:
@MegaPod_781
Day 2 Start
It was a quiet night in the forest, as all the animals slept on their own, upset at the mistake they had made yesterday. Sure, a few could have sworn they heard some rustling noises, but was there any real danger to just some normal nighttime activity?
Day 2 has started! It will last for 96 hours, until July 21st at 5 PM EST.
The majority to eliminate for today is 5. If/when someone has 5 votes, the day will end instantly and that player will be eliminated.
As an eliminated tree, @Celever may not vote, but he may continue to post in-thread.
You all may now post in the thread.
Dang, I might’ve been able to show up for EOD but I had a dentist appointment around then. Welp.
Tbh, despite their chaotic start, I’m reading Eph as pretty genuine and rational now, and admittedly, their case on bbninjas is making a lot of sense to me. I didn’t even catch the total 180 bb had made on the Celever wagon, which makes me trust Eph more for finding and pointing that out.
Reading back a bit, there are also some other details I found a bit off about bb that I probably overlooked earlier because he’d been so vocal. For instance, this response he made to Vom for suggesting the Cel wagon:
So, he didn’t mean it seriously in the first place? I’m not sure about buying that.
From what I could tell, Eph wasn’t running a “smear campaign” on bb at all, so this actually seems pretty defensive looking back. Oh, and look, an insinuation that Cel was lying. Despite bb’s later opposition to the Cel wagon. Hm.
Also, minor nitpick, but I don’t think a Townie usually wants fellow players to “stop talking” about game related stuff, since discussion is kinda what we do to figure out the game :v
##BYEBYENEXT?: bbninjas
Tbh, despite their chaotic start, I’m reading Eph as pretty genuine and rational now, and admittedly, their case on bbninjas is making a lot of sense to me. I didn’t even catch the total 180 bb had made on the Celever wagon, which makes me trust Eph more for finding and pointing that out.
Reading back a bit, there are also some other details I found a bit off about bb that I probably overlooked earlier because he’d been so vocal. For instance, this response he made to Vom for suggesting the Cel wagon:
So, he didn’t mean it seriously in the first place? I’m not sure about buying that.
From what I could tell, Eph wasn’t running a “smear campaign” on bb at all, so this actually seems pretty defensive looking back. Oh, and look, an insinuation that Cel was lying. Despite bb’s later opposition to the Cel wagon. Hm.
Also, minor nitpick, but I don’t think a Townie usually wants fellow players to “stop talking” about game related stuff, since discussion is kinda what we do to figure out the game :v
And this tidbit about how he doesn’t like the Cel wagon he suggested.
##BYEBYENEXT?: bbninjas
I thought I would be around for EOD but nope, sleeping >.>
Below is my complete thought progression for Day 1. It should clear up what I aimed to achieve in each part of the day, and it should fill in those gaps about why I did what I did. I believe most points raised yesterday will be addressed by this progression, although if there's anything you'd like me to respond to specifically, then quote and tag. Expect a less aggressive and more transparent bbn in Day 2.
tl;dr
Also, I am pretty confident that Eph is town because they didn't care about being lynched. They were not frantically trying to get people to vote for Celever. They weren't particularly frustrated by all the pressure on them, which scum tend to feel when they feel they are being unfairly tunnelled. They seemed resigned to the possibility of being tree-stumped. In fact, Eph actually seemed more content and level-headed then scum. The fact that Eph managed to actually put a second case on me that could potentially compete against the Celever wagon and absorb some of the votes, which would risk Eph getting lynched! Instead, I see town motivation here: putting a second case creates a path forward for Day 2. This means Eph expected to stick around even if they get lynched.
Below is my complete thought progression for Day 1. It should clear up what I aimed to achieve in each part of the day, and it should fill in those gaps about why I did what I did. I believe most points raised yesterday will be addressed by this progression, although if there's anything you'd like me to respond to specifically, then quote and tag. Expect a less aggressive and more transparent bbn in Day 2.
- I hate RVS, so entering Day 1, I wanted to get out of RVS and into tell-based scumhunting as soon as possible. The joke RVS being thrown around in the early day was not pressuring anyone and wasn't going to get tells, so I wanted to start a wagon as soon as possible
- Ephemera town-reading Amici so confidently struck me as odd, and they were super active so we'd get information near-immediately, so seized the opportunity and pushed it along with Vom. The idea is that people would start taking sides and Eph would start playing under pressure which would dig up info on those people.
- Ephemera continued with their coincidental voting pattern, and that's when I started to think they could be scum. I wanted to see whether this would continue (it did) and I wanted to see if they started solving (Eph resorted to WIFOM and OMGUS).
- I'd been tunnelling Eph for a while by now and had a major qualm in my case on Eph. I was assuming that scum!Eph would actually have this great big elaborate Day 1 plan - to make friends with their townreaders, and discredit their scumreaders. Would scum!Eph have such an intentional plan? Probably not; Eph hasn't been playing mafia for that long and scum here generally don't have elaborate plans. Interestingly no one has brought this point up yet, but that's aside. I wanted a tell that was more rigorous.
- Around this time I realised that I was a) going around in circles with the case and b) wasn't paying attention to other players, especially those not directly engaging with the wagon. I also was aware that if Eph is town, then my tunneling Eph would actually be stopping Eph from scumhunting, which is of course not good. I needed to change tact.
- Soon after Eph made some comment or implication about not wanting to be eliminated (I think Eph said they were discouraged?). This was interesting, since town largely wouldn't care (because they get tree stumped) but scum obviously would. This could be that rigorous tell that I needed. However, the town-stumping rule was new, and so it may not have registered for town!Eph yet - so I wanted to test Eph again.
- As I tried to figure out how to do this test, I started focusing my attention on other players. I wanted to get a read on Jade since many people were town-reading them, and they seemed to be echoing people a lot. I also wanted to figure out Vom a bit more since I usually read them scummy, so I asked a few questions there. I then moved on to Amici since they had popped back into the thread. I sort of kept an eye on scattered, but was fairly content that he was putting together his own thoughts. He was keeping his distance from the Eph wagon, but not too sure how to read that even now.
- RE: Eph, I wanted to keep my own distance for a little bit so that I didn't get too caught up in my own confirmation bias. I would agree with Eph when I agreed with what they were saying, I disagreed with Eph when I disagreed (and always made sure to give reason). I do this to other players as well, Jade, Amici, Vom all come to mind.
- I figured I needed to remind Eph of the townstumping again, but without my motivation being obvious. (If it was, then they could figure out I reaction testing them, and Eph would just fake the right reaction.) Scapegoating Celever seemed like a good idea because Eph was already pushing them, and the "reason" for town-stumping a lim-a-lurker is basically opposite to the reason for town-stumping an active player (i.e. you have an active confo-town leader). Hence, I "pitched" a Cel-stump to Eph with the purpose of reminding Eph that being eliminated wasn't the end of a town player's game. This was the reaction I wanted. While scummy, I wouldn't be too surprised if Eph would generally agree with the idea as either alignment; they were already pushing Cel.
- Eph registered town-stumping, so that was a success! The next phase was to push Eph again with the apparent intention to eliminate and see whether their reaction matched town or scum. However, I needed to leave Eph alone for a little while so that this town tree-stumping thought wasn't at the front of their mind (else scum!Eph would definitely react correctly)
- Around this time, Eph started to seriously push and flip-flop between the four without any particular evidence, so I started to calling them out and pushing them to actually find evidence. Eph had repeatedly said "something is off about bbn" and I was very sick of that, so I called it out for what it was: a smear campaign. Whenever Eph referred to the 4, I would call them out and - this is critical - ask them to find evidence. I was not quashing discussion as Mega seems to have forgotten in their post above.
- Celever popped on the scene with this weird comment about multi-quote walls, and a number of statements about myself and I think Amici or Eph that seemed clearly misinformed, or Celever was lying about what he had read. The key was in the multi-quote walls - if Celever had read a post that contradicted their statements about myself and other people, then Celever's a liar. While Celever was still online, I tagged him and asked him to repost those quotes. He never responded then, so I started to think he had something to hide and happily put pressure on him so he would actually do it (hence the "I think he might be lying" posts)
- Celever reposted the quotes and the ones he read did seem to match with his assertions about the gamestate, so this seemed pretty NAI.
- However, at this time people started piling vote after vote on Celever. This seemed absolutely ridiculous on me, and it seemed to be a lim-a-lurker in disguise. It was NAI and wouldn't give you any information on anyone (well except for me) if Cel did flip scum. It would definitely not tell you anything about those voting Cel if he flipped town since it was such an easy wagon for any alignment to jump on to. So I started to be very vocal about calling it out and asking people why they are actually voting Cel (to maximise info and find bandwagoners voting without their own reasons if Cel flipped town).
- NP also posted a 24-hour-until day end warning, and I was like "oh rip I haven't gotten that final read on Eph yet". I reposted the Eph case, and put a bit more effort into it since the alt-wagon of Celever seemed absolutely ludicrous. I need to put plenty of pressure on Eph so that they still felt like they were in danger of being lynched. I also wanted an immediate response from Eph that didn't actually respond to the evidence, since it would indicate whether Eph cared or not about being lynched. I was expecting to be back by EOD to have a final analysis of this.
tl;dr
- My qualm with my Eph case was that it assumed scum!Eph would actually have this elaborate plan
- I wanted more rigorous evidence: did Eph care about being eliminated? They seemed to.
- However, perhaps the tree-stump rule hadn't clicked for Eph yet?
- Under the guise of pitching a Celever lynch-a-lim, I reminded Eph of the tree-stump idea
- Celever appears, I wanted to see if his quotes would contradict his misinformed comments about gamestate. (spoiler: I conclude they don't)
- Celever wagon gains much traction and I couldn't understand why people thought his postings were alignment-indicative
- I then pushed the Eph wagon again to see if Eph cared about getting lynched
- And then end of day happened
Also, I am pretty confident that Eph is town because they didn't care about being lynched. They were not frantically trying to get people to vote for Celever. They weren't particularly frustrated by all the pressure on them, which scum tend to feel when they feel they are being unfairly tunnelled. They seemed resigned to the possibility of being tree-stumped. In fact, Eph actually seemed more content and level-headed then scum. The fact that Eph managed to actually put a second case on me that could potentially compete against the Celever wagon and absorb some of the votes, which would risk Eph getting lynched! Instead, I see town motivation here: putting a second case creates a path forward for Day 2. This means Eph expected to stick around even if they get lynched.
Current read list is:
Town
Ephemera
Jadethepokemontrainer
Vom
scattered mind
Neutral
Fiery_Lugia (their Celever vote is very suss, why so apologetic?)
Amici (suss about their Celever vote, not too sure if buy their reason for it not being a lim-a-lurker.)
Scum
MegaPod_781 (not omgus, this is a read from before his post today. I think I already said Mega was suss last day because he's piggy-backing cases and providing extra points, but none of those points are very substantial, or even original.)
There's a lot of misconstruing of my quotes in Mega's most recent post, which is especially odd since Mega said he read back a bit. I'll pick it apart later.
I'll need to look into the bottom three of my town reads, they're mostly there because I don't think they've done anything particularly suss.
I would like to see an original case from @scattered mind and @Amici being the two people who were "collecting their thoughts" behind the scenes in Day 1. They should have something to push by now.
Town
Ephemera
Jadethepokemontrainer
Vom
scattered mind
Neutral
Fiery_Lugia (their Celever vote is very suss, why so apologetic?)
Amici (suss about their Celever vote, not too sure if buy their reason for it not being a lim-a-lurker.)
Scum
MegaPod_781 (not omgus, this is a read from before his post today. I think I already said Mega was suss last day because he's piggy-backing cases and providing extra points, but none of those points are very substantial, or even original.)
There's a lot of misconstruing of my quotes in Mega's most recent post, which is especially odd since Mega said he read back a bit. I'll pick it apart later.
I'll need to look into the bottom three of my town reads, they're mostly there because I don't think they've done anything particularly suss.
I would like to see an original case from @scattered mind and @Amici being the two people who were "collecting their thoughts" behind the scenes in Day 1. They should have something to push by now.
Oooooh, interesting SoD.
And by that I mean weird, so let's see some new thoughts.
I think I got there on Cel town, but much too late to advocate for people getting off his wagon. Definitely some votes on that wagon were reasonable – I thought a vote there was good for like almost the whole day – but gonna check for opportunistic votes.
The wagon interactions of me/cel/minor wagons should have some good info to read off of as well.
EoD Cel wagon:
5: Amici, Mega, Jade, scattered mind, lily
Funnily enough quite a few of my townreads are on this wagon. Gonna have to reevaluate.
Finally, re: my attitude towards getting eliminated, I just don't wanna become a treestump lol. I like having my vote, it helps me with my chaotic solving techniques, etc. Forming wagons, counter-wagons, pressure votes – I need my vote for that.
Gonna put more analysis later but for now, gotta go for other stuff.
And by that I mean weird, so let's see some new thoughts.
I think I got there on Cel town, but much too late to advocate for people getting off his wagon. Definitely some votes on that wagon were reasonable – I thought a vote there was good for like almost the whole day – but gonna check for opportunistic votes.
The wagon interactions of me/cel/minor wagons should have some good info to read off of as well.
EoD Cel wagon:
5: Amici, Mega, Jade, scattered mind, lily
Funnily enough quite a few of my townreads are on this wagon. Gonna have to reevaluate.
Finally, re: my attitude towards getting eliminated, I just don't wanna become a treestump lol. I like having my vote, it helps me with my chaotic solving techniques, etc. Forming wagons, counter-wagons, pressure votes – I need my vote for that.
Gonna put more analysis later but for now, gotta go for other stuff.
This is an incredibly ballsy thing to post as scum. I'm not 100% sure what to make of it. Can bb post this as scum? Yes, I believe so. Would he also post this as town? Probably.
I'm gonna have to reevaluate. I still think bb's scum, but I'll have to go over this post in more detail while comparing it with the rest of his posts. Few things I'm gonna look for, hopefully I come out of it with a more informed read on bb.
Please base your read on the content of the post, and not the fact that I actually made that post. Because yes, I would definitely post this as scum if I felt I could make my thought progression entirely justifiable.
Otherwise, dead town is dead :/
If you've visited this thread and haven't made a post yet - and I am watching! - then you better post in the next 24... >.>
vote her*
I personally stand by the Cel wagon from yesterday.
I went over Fiery's ISO overnight and it seems they are at least seemingly making an effort. Going to once more reread the whole thread with Cel=town in mind
fair.
sorry for my low activity today lol PMD has taken up all my time. It really shouldn't – I have a ton of stuff to prepare for – but my PMD addiction doesn't care
Some things to check up on: bb's progression + thought processes, cel votes (off the top of my head i believe most of them seemed alright at surface-level, but that wagon's not pure. Like, it's mathematically not pure, i think, unless the scumteam is exactly bb/vom. But yeah, fairly sure there will be votes that on second go around are pretty bad)
Other things: I still think Jade is top town. Amici dropped off a little, so I'm gonna reevaluate there. Mega seems to go for established cases rather than making his own content, but like: idk if that's necessarily scum or town, I'll think over it in the morning. Scattered's been behaving like his town game, but his vote on cel was a little bad imo. bb has stuff that I have to evaluate. gonna have to try and see if lily being new town carries over to D2. Vom has a lot of content, gonna read through that with the new info in mind.
rainbow minus the people i'm not sure about/need to reeval
jade
wow, that's an amazing rainbow. i thought i'd have more names there ngl. will have better reads and more of them later, brain not working enough to evaluate properly right now.
also: Cel is CONFO-TOWN. We need to listen to him.
reasoning? i mean before you knew he was town.
but... the same thing was said about you..what is the difference?
Good points Mega!
##VOTE:bbninjas
The defensivness there is quite telling. Eph wasn't running any case on bbninjas specifically as he was just trying to find out whether or not a scum is among his voters, which with this small setup is very probable.
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