@NP: how long is left in the day?
I apologize for not enough content today so far, working on that. I've been busy, PB was down while I had time, internet issues, etc etc...
...but all those are excuses. I'm gonna jump right back into the game, with my usual strategy: spew my thoughts into the thread and hope something makes sense!
@everyone: if amici flips town, who is most likely scum behind that?
@Jabberwock my level of confidence on Amici scum? lemme try and brain my way to an actual figure.
So, I'm fairly sure Vom/Jade are locktown. Neither of them needed to jump onto the mega wagon when there was a perfectly good bb wagon, and bussing could have been saved for D3.
bb is very town, although a tinfoil world exists where pressure mounts on scum!bb and the mega/bb scumteam formulate a plan to bus each other, spewing the non-eliminated one town. I think that's unlikely though – if bb were scum, he probably doesn't reverse his read on me and pushes for an elimination on me D2, which honestly had a pretty good chance of success. Again, in this case bussing could be saved for D3.
that leaves scattered/jabber/amici.
I still think scattered is town. There have been a few questionable things in his ISO iirc – need to go back and check, but tbh i'm not the greatest at making myself do that thoroughly – such as him saying the PoE is him/amici, when jabber hasn't gotten out of there yet, the vote on cel for not devoting time, etc etc, but I honestly think those actions come from town.
the vote on cel: choosing a main wagon over a throwaway one D1. It's easy to just leave town to the v/v wagons and not get suspicion on you for eliminating a townie. Can be faked by scum I guess but >rand town.
the statement that PoE is pretty much amici/him: why would scum narrow down the PoE when they're alone? in scum!scattered's world, jabber is a prime target for a miselim today or tomorrow, and I doubt scattered excludes jabber from a PoE list, even unconsciously, as scum, since he'd need all the progression and suspicion he could get on jabber.
i can work a little more on scattered later but for the most part that's what stood out to me from scattered.
next: your slot, jabber. I thought Lily was newbie town, although given her... 4? posts there's not much to go off of. You haven't made yourself a clear townie yet – understandable, subbing in gives you a difficult job of catching up, showing yourself as town with 2 days behind everyone else, and forming reads (if you're town lol) – so I can't really evaluate your slot much.
So, for amici: i personally expected a bit more? Her ISO was lacking, felt like activelurking. She was
in the thread but I don't really recall much of what she said – as opposed to cel, for example, who was not in thread but contributed only a little less than amici D1 – and essentially felt like someone standing back and watching town chaos.
I can't be 100% sure of this vote, but amici/jabber/scattered PoE is pretty sound, and among them amici is the most sus.
Thus my confidence on the amici vote: moderate to high, maybe about 60-70%
still gotta plan for the possibility that she doesn't flip scum.
", especially once you've reminded them of how eliminations work for trees. I guess it's potentially a point in their favor if you reckon they're too new to the game to be that many steps into WIFOM, but I'm not sure I reckon the same, and it definitely doesn't stack up to negate the OMGUSing and tone-reading as scumtells.
