Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!
- Thread starter NinjaPenguin
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Going to check that.
@bbninjas - this is the hole I find in your case- from what I have been reading Vom was the first to make the statement of one of bbn and Mega is scum. Unless I missed a post I just can't find anyone else mentions it before her.
You may be right, cause I really can't think of any real-life examples where you would say panic-x instead of I panicked and x, but it might still be reaching.
You underestimate people too much - first the scumteam, now me - I'm not gonna let you bark up another wrong tree in MYLO.
- Idk, I thought it was realistic I guess? Didn't see you questioning why you were his second top read.
- Will be addressed in Exhibit B
- Literally nothing about Mega drew any particular attention from me in D1, he seemed kind of like Jade, except I completely disagreed with something Jade said so I commented on it.
- ^
Maybe scum!Vom did, but Mega literally put me at the top of his townlist, as you pointed out. How is that distancing? It wasn't general consensus either, putting scum!Vom at the top of his list would only hurt me after his flip. Mega has no reason to say scum!Vom is the towniest player without any explanation or ever expanding on it.
Again, I don't think he expands on why he put you as his second towniest read, and didn't see you questioning that.
I guess I did? Mega wasn't on my radar D1, so I probably either ignored or didn't care about this point - even I don't remember. Maybe because I didn't think Mega was suspicious, but I really don't know. Remember that at this point Mega had done nothing suspicious, and without knowing his alignment beforehand I had no reason to pay close attention to his name being thrown around, like you are doing now in hindsight.
Same as before, guess I just agreed with that.
Of course I did. Why wouldn't I? We went over this in D1, you raised this exact same point about me and I explained how keeping one's options open rather than focusing on one elimination leads to a better decision in the end.
It definitely is - bussing Mega would have been beneficial to literally anyone in the game. In fact, it's just as beneficial for you to bus as it was to me, especially since people (myself included) said that one of bb/Mega were scum, and knowing the other flipping scum would give the surviving member massive towncred, you could've bussed each other because one of you was getting eliminated anyway.
Ok, let me just say, there is no universe in which scum - scum!Vom or otherwise - doesn't bus Mega. The closest thing to not busing Mega would have been to simply not vote, which was impossible because the consensus (started by me, btw) was that there was scum in bb/Mega, and since those were the two main wagons, there was no reason for town to not vote either of them. And, more specific to me, I couldn't have broken the tie to eliminate bb anyway, not after how I was clearly against the bb case and said on multiple occasions how I thought Mega was the better elimination.
And even if someone else broke the tie and bb got eliminated, Mega would definitely be eliminated the next Day - there are no miselim options, especially after either breaking the tie the wrong way and backpedaling hard in the process, or not voting and advocating for a non-Mega lim the next Day - now that would've screamt scum.
This is of course assuming there was a 'wrong' way to break the tie.
Right, you address not voting here. See above.
Or...you know...because I'd been pressuring him but he chose to ignore my points? This also assumes I was voting to elim. I didn't have anything even close to a case, I was annoyed scattered was ignoring me to I voted him to further pressure. And even if I was trying to get him eliminated, that would've never happened with what I had at the time - even now I don't think there's anything damning on him. As you said, most people were townreading him already, and my evidence was way too weak to sway anyone into the scattered elimination anyway, nor did I try to.
I had said before that Amici and Fiery were lim-a-lurker 2.0, and was opposed to them being eliminated based on activity. It's true I didn't like Amici's posting, as I pointed out many times, but starting a Lily wagon would've been suss as hell. Even the Amici wagon was questionable, but not terrible. Starting a lurker wagon is almost never a good option for literally anyone, not to mention two in a row, as your timeline seems to determine.
It's true I would've been happy with a scattered elim at that point, but I didn't mind the Amici wagon either as per my previous points on her so I kinda just let it happen. I didn't even vote her because (unlike a certain someone :U) I didn't want a hammer.
This is only the latest instance, but you seem to underestimate the scumteam a lot. Why's that? I think your analysis relies on the assumption that PokéBeach scumteams need to get good. We know discrediting the whole scumteam only benefits one side...
hm
bb/vom is looking very much like town on town violence here.
I personally think the probability of a busser on mega is much lower than you'd think – of course people might prefer bussing their buddies, some people have that sort of playstyle, but there is never a world where you're locked into voting your buddy. What I think you are failing to consider is that townies are wrong about scum all the time – not everyone was on mega, after all – and thus why couldn't scum get away with not bussing mega? No matter who the second scum member is, I highly doubt they target their only scumbuddy on Day 2 – they can just pass as wrong townie, easy.
Now, putting mega as high townread might have been suspicious (which is to be frank a contributing factor to the necessity of the amici elimination) no one besides amici was putting mega above null, or null-town, and thus there's no one fitting the bill of so wrong it has to be scum (which honestly might not even exist, but i digress).
@bbninjas i may have forgotten to check points 1 & 2 while writing my post, yes. lemme check them now.
bb/vom is looking very much like town on town violence here.
I personally think the probability of a busser on mega is much lower than you'd think – of course people might prefer bussing their buddies, some people have that sort of playstyle, but there is never a world where you're locked into voting your buddy. What I think you are failing to consider is that townies are wrong about scum all the time – not everyone was on mega, after all – and thus why couldn't scum get away with not bussing mega? No matter who the second scum member is, I highly doubt they target their only scumbuddy on Day 2 – they can just pass as wrong townie, easy.
Now, putting mega as high townread might have been suspicious (which is to be frank a contributing factor to the necessity of the amici elimination) no one besides amici was putting mega above null, or null-town, and thus there's no one fitting the bill of so wrong it has to be scum (which honestly might not even exist, but i digress).
@bbninjas i may have forgotten to check points 1 & 2 while writing my post, yes. lemme check them now.
okay, skimmed the case again
imo Point 1 is probably a better case than 2 – as town or scum, you can't really pick apart everything a player says, just what stands out to you. It could be circumstantial evidence, but that is more of a support for point 1 – the distancing.
At this point i kind of have to work with my townread on bb, there's not enough time to reevaluate there, and I doubt I would find enough to gain any traction even if I did find anything.
hm.
gonna go check 2 things:
imo Point 1 is probably a better case than 2 – as town or scum, you can't really pick apart everything a player says, just what stands out to you. It could be circumstantial evidence, but that is more of a support for point 1 – the distancing.
At this point i kind of have to work with my townread on bb, there's not enough time to reevaluate there, and I doubt I would find enough to gain any traction even if I did find anything.
hm.
gonna go check 2 things:
- if the distancing between vom/mega is a big thing
- EoD 1 to all of D2, which I believe is the most indicative of people's alignment
Okay, multi-ISO'd vom/mega (by which I mean I searched their posts and skimmed the results)
I don't think vom not discussing mega is a huge thing. Mega didn't have a great many posts (particularly on D1) and being off her radar is more likely.
As for vom nitpicking my reads, as the supposed nitpickee, I don't think she did so to all my reads – the ones of note were the amici read plus the "conflicting" read where I said she could be scum due to wagonomics while townreading her.
Personally I don't think Vom's post numbers discussing people are too indicative, because not all posts in thread are made by the same person, and stuff happens to take time away from mafia.
However, this has served to solidify both my townread on vom and bb – I don't think bb limits PoE to jabber/vom when scattered still is in-thread, while reading Vom's posts continues to give me the impression that she is solving and believes in what she says.
This leaves me once more with the jabber/scattered conundrum. I'd like thoughts on this (does day end in less than 2 hours? sheesh)
In the meantime, ##VOTE: Jabberwock
I believe this vote is okay. The Lily panic-vote thing makes a lot of sense, and it's more than I've got for now.
Plus being on the Cel wagon D1 and off-wagon the next 2 days is not great, could be frozen newbie scum??? Weak but that's supporting circumstantial evidence.
I hope I'm right, but if I'm not whoever's scum is playing a solid game. If Jabber is scum he's also played a solid game with what he was given to work with, honestly my vote is here because all the others have mild to strong reasons for me to believe they're town.
Two more goals before game end: read through D2 for any hints and check scattered's ISO to see if I'm not misvoting.
Thoughts about the game:
This has been a really fun game and I would love to play again with all of you!
I have some post-game thoughts that I will save for postgame (duh).
And if I'm not wrong, I think people are spectating this game? I hope you enjoyed it and learned stuff.
Please play games with us we need more people :U
I don't think vom not discussing mega is a huge thing. Mega didn't have a great many posts (particularly on D1) and being off her radar is more likely.
As for vom nitpicking my reads, as the supposed nitpickee, I don't think she did so to all my reads – the ones of note were the amici read plus the "conflicting" read where I said she could be scum due to wagonomics while townreading her.
Personally I don't think Vom's post numbers discussing people are too indicative, because not all posts in thread are made by the same person, and stuff happens to take time away from mafia.
However, this has served to solidify both my townread on vom and bb – I don't think bb limits PoE to jabber/vom when scattered still is in-thread, while reading Vom's posts continues to give me the impression that she is solving and believes in what she says.
This leaves me once more with the jabber/scattered conundrum. I'd like thoughts on this (does day end in less than 2 hours? sheesh)
In the meantime, ##VOTE: Jabberwock
I believe this vote is okay. The Lily panic-vote thing makes a lot of sense, and it's more than I've got for now.
Plus being on the Cel wagon D1 and off-wagon the next 2 days is not great, could be frozen newbie scum??? Weak but that's supporting circumstantial evidence.
I hope I'm right, but if I'm not whoever's scum is playing a solid game. If Jabber is scum he's also played a solid game with what he was given to work with, honestly my vote is here because all the others have mild to strong reasons for me to believe they're town.
Two more goals before game end: read through D2 for any hints and check scattered's ISO to see if I'm not misvoting.
Thoughts about the game:
This has been a really fun game and I would love to play again with all of you!
I have some post-game thoughts that I will save for postgame (duh).
And if I'm not wrong, I think people are spectating this game? I hope you enjoyed it and learned stuff.
Please play games with us we need more people :U
Wait, what? I thought Day ended in like 3.5h ish.
Yeah ok this post was made ay 5:20 pm EST, there's sitll some time.
There's really not that much else available - but I'm sure scum is gonna make a terrible mistake before EoD so I don't want to vote just yet in case I can't change it later. I think Jabber's been townie so far, highlighted by the fact we've moved on to Lily's play to get more of a read on him.
I'm having doubts about scattered since Jabber and bb raised some points about him, but by PoE it'd have to be him for me.
I still think there's a small chance bb is, off the top of my head most of his pushes have been on town besides Mega, but bb made the case on Mega before Mega made the push on him so that throws me off a bit. Still, in a world where the scum team is bb/Mega, I suppose the order wouldn't matter too much except for town cred.
i don't think this post comes from scum!scattered piling on to scum!mega's vote on bb, especially given the very big validity of the bb wagon on D2 – bb could have definitely gotten eliminated. When bb flipped town, it would just make them both look scummy unnecessarily, plus i don't think scumbuddies buddy this hard.
let's talk about lily's vote on cel, since that's the "panic-vote" under suspicion.
(i wanna watch she-raaaaaaaa)
...ahem. After that side note, i guess.
Near EoD, lily "panic-votes" cel to make it a 5-person wagon.
I can see two worlds here:
a) She's town, she townreads me, and thus votes to save me. Simple, easy, explains most things. The "panic-vote" terminology isn't necessarily out of the blue, she's played mafia once before, even though she was the D1 miselim.
b) She's scum, panicked at EoD, voted Cel. When asked for an explanation, buddy mega tells her to explain via panic-voting. This, unfortunately, also makes sense.
I have no idea which is more likely, and I can't ask Lily. Ugh.
(i wanna watch she-raaaaaaaa)
...ahem. After that side note, i guess.
Near EoD, lily "panic-votes" cel to make it a 5-person wagon.
I can see two worlds here:
a) She's town, she townreads me, and thus votes to save me. Simple, easy, explains most things. The "panic-vote" terminology isn't necessarily out of the blue, she's played mafia once before, even though she was the D1 miselim.
b) She's scum, panicked at EoD, voted Cel. When asked for an explanation, buddy mega tells her to explain via panic-voting. This, unfortunately, also makes sense.
I have no idea which is more likely, and I can't ask Lily. Ugh.
I agree that it'd be pretty weird for scumbuddies to buddy so blatantly, but the validity of the bb wagon shouldn't be a point against scum!scattered; on the contrary, being so valid he could have shrugged it off later into the game without major suspicion.
@Jadethepokemontrainer so it begins...
Yeah, I don't think her saying "panic-vote" holds too much weight, even if unusual. I think it'd be better to look at who she panic-voted instead of why - since we obviously can only speculate on the latter. Why vote Celever? Especially after bb and I weren't too kind on that wagon, to put it ligthly.
Say, @Jabberwock , I don't suppose you'll tell us which it is if we ask nicely? Serious question.
i'm gonna lock vom town now. i really doubt she can be scum after her. whole body of work???? it just feels so townie.
re: lily voting cel.
I figure she wanted a cel eviction over me either way – as town she townreads me, and as scum she prefers me to have a vote over cel, who a) will not be a likely wagon later on, and b) doesn't trust lily as much as I did at the time.
the explanation being panicking also unfortunately works from either alignment – it makes sense that you panic at EoD whatever happens.
Why. Why can I not get anything solid out of this.
re: lily voting cel.
I figure she wanted a cel eviction over me either way – as town she townreads me, and as scum she prefers me to have a vote over cel, who a) will not be a likely wagon later on, and b) doesn't trust lily as much as I did at the time.
the explanation being panicking also unfortunately works from either alignment – it makes sense that you panic at EoD whatever happens.
Why. Why can I not get anything solid out of this.
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