RE: Mr XY
Nintenfreak said:
Okay, so dig this. This is why I think this leak is somewhat possible.
One of the things about lies is that it's really easy to tell when people are making crap up. You have two groups of students and each student either makes up coin flips or actually flips a coins, and they do it for, say, 1000 flips. You don't know which is which, but you can guess. You come across one set of flips and it looks like this
H T T H H H T T T H T H T T H H
and you come across another set of flips and it looks like this
H T T T T T T T T T H H T H T T H T
The second one is probably real. Why? Because if you're trying to make something up you're going to make it look more neat and uniform than it otherwise would be. Bringing it back to this, though; this guy has a lot of data and it looks really random, he's got some wild things that no rational person who wanted to be believed would suggest. A person making something up is far more likely to go with something they'd personally enjoy than a lot of Baby Pokemon and Really Unnecessary Evolutions; they'd have the cool idea suggested a million times as basically every idea,
If I were Mr. XY and I wanted to be believed, I would not have had said Starmie would evolve. Starmie's already powerful and there's no good reason for it. It's not the kind of thing you'd lie about if your goal is to be believed.
Good post! I think Mr. XY in all likelihood is an uncommonly successful hoax, who understands what you just wrote, since his bases are covered pretty well. The burden of proof is on him, so it's reasonable to disbelieve him, but a lot of people here disbelieve him for the wrong reasons, such as:
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They don't like the pokemon in his dex, or think they're unlikely for Game Freak. Imagine someone told you before Gen. IV that Magmar was getting an evolution with cannons for hands, and Electabuzz was getting one with wires coming out of its butt. Specific descriptions of pokemon very often sound fake, until you see them and get used to them.
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Starmie and Claydol are too powerful to get evolutions. This is probably true, but Porygon2 got one with a 515 base stat total, only 5 less than Starmie. The evolutions could get differently distributed stats, without a substantially higher BST. As for eviolite, nothing says Game Freak even has to bring that back in Gen VI - see the Custap Berry. I doubt they'd drop it though, it makes so many pokemon more viable. Worst case you just end up with Claydol in OU and Starmie in Uber.
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There are too many unused type combos in his dex. I happen to think this, but in a game that's going 3D and bringing back a lot of old pokemon (think Sinnoh), it's not hard to see GF maybe going in a different direction with the new pokemon they introduce. They have more familiar pokemon like Patrat to fill those other, more familiar roles.
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There's never been an accurate leak this early. There's never been a simultaneous international release before, either. It stands to reason that the games are already being localized, even seven months until launch. Giving American team members access to pokemon in a pre-reveal state, which they haven't had before. This is probably the biggest circumstance Mr. XY is taking advantage of.
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The game concept is too out there, such as the traveling back in time with the use of mirrors. This does sound too science-fictiony, considering (I believe it was) Masuda scoffed before at the idea of pokemon in space, and wants the games to stay realistic. But it's not like the Entralink or Dream World make a whole lot of sense. The only difference is they're not part of the main plot.
-I saw someone suggest
he'd be fired by now. Only if he doesn't know how to use a proxy, or can't, say, walk to a public library. It's not that difficult to post something to 4chan or whatever it was without being found out.
The only thing I don't see is the incentive to leak; you're violating your contract and the trust of a great employer, with minimal risk but absolutely no gain. I don't see the point of that, but maybe it's just me. It's a lot easier to imagine someone making stuff up for fun, which of course is almost certainly the case. It's probability; there's only a small group working on the game and an enormous group able to speculate and pose as insiders.
