Yes, our chances on Day 1 are low. And yes, our chances if we lynch batui4 are 0. But! If we can extract the murderer's pattern more quickly, we'll actually have better chances on Day 2 of catching the murderer. Remember, this is only the first day, and we have NEVER been able to catch the murderer on Day 1. Ever.
Alright, I understand that reasoning. However, there is a good possiblity that the murderer wasn't actually about to kill Batui, and that they just said that to confuse us about the pattern. Therefore, lynching batui might hurt us because we won't know if the murderer planned on following through or not, so we could not determine his/her patterns.
And note how my first post says "first lynches". This includes the lynches on days 2 and 3. I'm not doubting your opinion of the quality of batui4's clues, I'm just changing my strategy to follow recent events.
But why would we want to give the murderer an extra day or two before we get good hints? That part doesn't make sense to me.
Following my own logic, I would provide good CoG clues and would be a good early lynch. However, keep in mind that I have yet to survive past the first couple of days of the game (thinks back to the time when Jirachi (Joeypals!! the murderer) rallied everyone against me). Also consider the fact that I have usually (unwittingly) identified the murderer on the same day as my own lynching/modkill (remembers Murder III, when the Council of Ghosts first came to order: I identified the murderer but was modkilled when I tried to close and seal a forbidden RP arc). I would greatly appreciate a chance to actually play.
Okay, seems to me like you are trying to make two points here. 1:I'm useful, don't kill me. And 2:I'd love a chance to play a long game. 1 is exactly what the alpha slime and leader of the shadow descendants said in the recent WW game, so that isn't a very good defense. 2 seems like you are being a mudkip and preying on our emotions by being cute and misunderstood. Just my take on it.
Speaking of things that usually happen, I have yet to be chosen as the murderer. I know it sounds like a weak defense (Don't lynch me, I'm not guilty!), but it's the sad truth (sad because I would really like to try my hand at puppetmaster). Coincidentally, in my own version of the game on SPPf, certain players are preferred by the Random Number Generator over others in terms of choosing the murderer. Take that however you wish.
Alright, I'm going to take that as you are an experienced player who hasn't been chosen to be murderer yet. That makes you a logical choice for murderer. Just sayin'.