We already have an example of a deck with 2 stage 2 pokemon in it that can get 1-3 of them set up T1 with relative ease in the form of Deciplume. There is literally no difference in how easily Tsareena can get set up from a big fat pokemon line standpoint. There is a massive difference in what the two decks are trying to do though and that's why I don't think the deck will work initially. Whether it ever works is a matter of what Pokemon decides to release in the future.
We are going to have to agree to disagree with respect to the "impact" statement. Right now, you are right. Sableye doesn't belong at the top of this set's list. Long term, I think it will outclass all but Lele and Field Blower.
I suppose that's true, though I would simply argue that playing Decidueye GX or even Trevenant is a better idea.
There may come a point where Sableye outclasses Aqua Patch, but that only happens if Water no longer becomes a threatening deck, which doesn't look like the case any time soon. It will never outclass Garbodor because Garbodor literally forces people to change how to build decks by hitting a mechanic that is so naturally important to the game at this point. Stopping Supporter play is one thing. Forcing fear in to people for playing Items, which have no limitations, is a completely different giant all together. Plus, if you really think about it... Sableye isn't tanky. Most things can kill it fairly easily, which I will get to later.
I could be convinced to put it behind Choice Band as well...I have seen enough decks running Silver Bangle and the impact that card can have to know how much that 30 extra damage can hurt.
Also keep in mind that Silver Bangle couldn't be used with EX Pokemon at the time. Not only does Choice Band hit more targets, you can attach them to EX/GX Pokemon, making it strictly better.
But all it takes is one mistake card by pokemon and Sableye becomes absolutely crippling. There is nothing else in the format that has the potential to stop opponents in their tracks as early as T1 if going second.
Vileplume AOR
Hoothoot BKT
Those two immediately came to mind and I'm pretty sure there are others, but that will do. But, to actually solidify my point, the only place those have made an impact are with Decidueye GX, which provides a residual damage that they simply lack. Realistically, they're good together because they cover each other's weaknesses. What truly covers the weakness of Sableye? If I tech it in to Decidueye, I have to split Basic Energy and the deck already plays a small amount. I could play it in something like Trevenant/Vileplume/Sableye, but is it worth it then? Hoothoot worked so well because he also used a DCE, so it wasn't like the Energy had to change. Can Sableye do the same when it comes down to it?
Don't get me wrong, I am not a person who is some kind of alarmist ZOMG THAT CARD R BROKEN type of person. I don't think it is broken. Unlike the other cards though, I think it has the chance of becoming absolutely meta defining in the next couple of years in the same way Garbodor was meta defining for months when there was trainer based tool removal this season. To be honest, I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see Yveltal decks make great use of it right away as a mid to late game card to help stall out an opponent from using Lysandre or N.
Here's the problems with Sableye from Guardians Rising. First and foremost, it requires you to play a Darkness Energy instead of DCE or something more splashable, meaning the number of decks that can truly play it start to become limited. Second, it has 60 HP, which is a small number and, quite frankly, not good when it comes to starters. 70 HP would make a much different case when it comes to being able to escape OHKOs. As it is now, Tauros GX can nautrally OHKO it, Decidueye can snipe them with 3 Set-Ups, Yveltal EX can OHKO it with 2 normal Energy attachments even if you have nothing on it, Lele can OHKO it if you attach an Energy... the list goes on and on. Finally, it doesn't have a free Retreat, which isn't a requirement, but is kind of a bummer.
Now, I will say that perhaps it could work in something like Yveltal EX or maybe Umbreon GX, where you can easily spread around damage. Then, you can have moments during the mid/late game where you can put up Sableye, lock them out of Supporters, and perhaps stall them for a while, setting up Umbreon GX or Yveltal EX. That might be an option that is worth teching Sableye in to, but keep in mind that this is not a full-on Meta-defining strategy. If anything, that Darkness Energy requirement makes it incredibly hard for Sableye to become truly Meta-changing because it limits what it can and will be able to go in to (and that's not considering all the other problems I have already listed).
I completely agree with you on this set being great. I am pretty excited about it and think it at least *feels* like we might get some truly interesting decks out of this list similar to how we have gotten a couple of interesting decks out of SUM. The one you mentioned earlier about streaming Koko has been giving me all sorts of happy thoughts as lightning happens to be my favorite type LOL!
I still have a feeling that Acerola will turn Tapu Koko GX in to a deck. Granted, we'll see when the time comes, but being able to essentially loop Koko over and over is nasty. Plus, they're force to OHKO the thing and that's a tall order, especially with things like Fighting Fury Belt still being a card.
Anyway, as always I really enjoyed your insight into the cards and their impact on Japan's meta. I think it is great that you take the time to share and several of the things you mentioned have me planning decks LOL!!!!!
Not a problem! I don't mean to sound condescending, so never take it that way. ^^
I always do my best to attempt to look at cards from a practical perspective. That's why I don't think Sableye is a bad card. After all, if you are able to set up a Vileplume with FoGP and go in to Sableye, your Opponent is forced to either answer with attacks or wait for something to give. The thing is that I look at all cards with the same sort of mentality, so while that set up is really great... how often are you really going to get it? Is there a way to actually win? Keep in mind that Sableye has to attack and he doesn't do any damage, etc etc. Then, I look at other cards, like Tapu Lele GX and Field Blower. How many decks will use these cards? A lot because they provide a way for the majority of decks to do "something" that is positive. So, keep in mind that I do support the idea. If anything, I would love to see it work because, quite frankly, it sounds mean if it does.
So, I hope this helps in some regard, whether realizing what problems need to be solved to make it work or realizing whether or not the combo is practical or whatever it may be. So long as something new is learned, I am personally satisfied.
-Asmer