Finished Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - TOWN WINS

[Professor Palutena]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

We have no solid evidence of who is a wolf. As much as I'd like to get rid of one, what if we hit a town person instead? We just got the wolves closer to winning.

We have something to work off of. If we vote "No Lynch", then we're still going to get the wolves closer. Only difference is that we're actually handing them that step towards victory by voting "No Lynch".

Take a risk. If there is something suspicious, go after it.

 

[PMJ]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

Honestly, the only person that has provided any decent reasoning behind their lynch vote is Meaty. That being so, there's still not much of a reason to go for a lynch in the dark. Being aggressive on night one isn't great, since doing that can benefit the wolves while putting the townies at a disadvantage, even though just laying back and doing nothing can be just as harmful. But I'm still hanging back for now, since there isn't any rush given the information we have, and I don't feel the need to lynch so soon.

I disagree. I see no reason to No Lynch because we can afford to lose a townie at this point in the game. Statistically we will miss before we hit, so why would we waste an opportunity to maybe hit a wolf?

Say we No Lynch today. That's a 0% chance of lynching a wolf.

Now say we lynch someone (anyone). Looking at last game as an example, Puff had a 7 in 31, or 22.6%, chance of hitting a Rocket on Night 0 with his ability. We have similar odds now. I don't know if DNA picked 7 Vigilantes, but the point is that no matter how many they are, we have a nonzero percent chance of hitting a wolf, and there's no reason we should waste it.

By your own admission, No Lynch is just as harmful as a shot in the dark, but why would you go for the 0% chance when you might get lucky? It's not like we're going to get a startling revelation on Day 2 that will change everything. This is what I see happening:

>No Lynch Day 1
>someone dies
>get another vague clue (or not - we don't know if the message ability is X-Shot or not)
>still no new leads
>Cinesra/Teal/safariblade/TDL gets lynched anyway because we still have nothing to go on and we "might as well"

We have ten days to vote. By voting No Lynch now, we are losing those days to discuss things. Anything, it doesn't matter. We shouldn't just throw it away. Rescind your No Lynch votes, please.

 

[9Tailz]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

>9Tailz
>doesn't want to vote and get more information
>casts vote seven minutes, one vote, and literally no new information

all right then

yep. I failed changed my mind.

 

[Bisharp37]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

We have ten days to vote. By voting No Lynch now, we are losing those days to discuss things. Anything, it doesn't matter. We shouldn't just throw it away. Rescind your No Lynch votes, please.

Didn't realize we had 10 whole days.
Unvote:No lynch

Let's wait for some more evidence..

 

[Zyflair]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

Well, if we're going to talk about the note, then there's been something that's bothering me about it.

First of all, let's assume our mystery writer exists. Then let's assume that the writer can also scan. Then we have the question: is the writer able to scan two people at once? I doubt this. Somehow, I think that the message could be talking about only one person. For all we know, the "not teal" could actually mean nothing and just includes that specific color to be misleading. If the grey part is true, then Cinesra isn't red, or a wolf. Under that logic, that makes Cinesra only either a townie or an indie, which makes the risk of lynching him a bit more than safariblade.

Of course, maybe there is a role that actually could reveal a correlation between Cinesra and Teal... Mindgames. >.>

 

[Glace]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

The only things bothering me are 9Tailz and Bisharp changing their minds with little evidence, and always seeing King Piplup view this thread (its amazing how many people are hidden) and having posted twice.

 

[Zyflair]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

The only things bothering me are 9Tailz and Bisharp changing their minds with little evidence, and always seeing King Piplup view this thread (its amazing how many people are hidden) and having posted twice.

They're new players. what can you expect?

inb4 one of them play like cornbread.

 

[Nengeni]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

I'm going to hold off until we have 1-2 days left to give my vote... We should always try and get as much information as we can.

I think everyone should do the same. Ending this day with a no lynch when we have another 7+ days seems crazy.

 

[King Piplup]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

The only things bothering me are 9Tailz and Bisharp changing their minds with little evidence, and always seeing King Piplup view this thread (its amazing how many people are hidden) and having posted twice.

Ha, well, I'm mostly getting a feel for how games go here before I jump in and do something stupid and get lynched .

At this point there isn't a ton I have to add, as where I usually play, No Lynch is considered the worst possible play, so I'd rather at least see how things start to pan out.

That and Nationals has me so preoccupied its hard to think straight. Expect some kind of post of use during my drive to Indy tommorow...
~KP

 

[Glace]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

Oh, my bad, I could have sworn I saw your name on the PokeGym one...

 

[PMJ]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

I'm confident the mystery writer exists. Games where the moderator misleads or outright lies to the players is called bas[/b][/b]tard modding, and is highly frowned upon unless the mod mentions this in the beginning. I don't think he's doing it to screw with the town, either, because then he would be unfairly biased and he can't be if he is to be seen as a fair mod.

Chillarmy said we should read the introduction carefully for some helpful clues. Here's what I'm getting from it:

1. Dusty Gulch has a sheriff. If DNA is sticking to typical mafia roles, this person most likely has a double lynch vote. Check the No Lynch votes. Do they add up correctly? If not, one of them could be the sheriff.

2. The Texas Ranger has information on the town. This could actually refer to the note left on Night 0. He's "read some records" on the town, which very well could let him start the game with info on two people. The fact that it was Cinesra and Teal leads me to believe that if this assessment is true, they were randomly selected. Seems a bit hard to believe. But I think we can safely assume that whoever the Texas Ranger is knows _something._

3. The Texas Ranger is town-aligned. He seems intent on protecting the town from the Vigilantes, too much so to be neutral.

As mentioned before, the fact that the "Arsenic is grey not teal" was written in different handwriting proves it came from a non-wolf source. The Texas Ranger, perhaps?

 

[King Piplup]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

Oh, my bad, I could have sworn I saw your name on the PokeGym one...

Oh no, you did...However that's where voting No Lynch is a sin and not complaining about Exams in every post means your doing it wrong.

 

[Bisharp37]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

The only things bothering me are 9Tailz and Bisharp changing their minds with little evidence, and always seeing King Piplup view this thread (its amazing how many people are hidden) and having posted twice.

Maybe that's just you being slightly paranoid...and maybe that's just me being indecisive.I really don't want a townie lynched Day 1 but as PMJ and maybe some other's stated we're are going to have To Be Aggressive if we want to win.But it could also be argued that you're a just a wolf that wants to get to night as quickly as possible...After seeing posts saying that we have Ten Whole Days Left..I decided to actually think more about who to vote for and further analyze what little clues we actually have that and seeing we were so close to ending the day already..

 

[Zyflair]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

... I count 11 voters for No Lynch at the time DNA posted the update status. Can someone verify this? Some might indeed have a double vote role.

 

[Cobalt Phoenix]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

11 Voters for No Lynch is correct.
3 on this page, 8 on the previous.

 

[Puff-Sun]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

Huh. So that gives us the info that one of the people who voted for No Lynch was the Mayor role, which could potentially be the Sheriff.

 

[Cobalt Phoenix]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

My bad on the count: It was 2 on this page (page 6 for those looking at 50 posts per page): myself and KA. And Nine others: sb, DoubleNikeSocks, puff, one approved, Glace, 9tailz, Zyflair, and Infinity.

 

[Glace]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

Ugh I am probably just being impatient but I still think that talking over 10 days won't make a difference...

but ugh, fine. And haha at the clues we have...

The clues we have:

For Voting out TDL

1. He has been a wolf before (no, this is not directed at you Dark Void).
2. He has a "come at me" play style.

For Voting out safariblade

1. He hurt the town 2 games ago, and I guess he hurt us last game but I don't see how tbh...
2. He misquoted a sentence.

For Voting out Cinesra

1. He is grey (which probably means not a wolf because wolves are colored red...)
2. He has a disliked playstyle

 

[Nengeni]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

So if we have people start to unvote... We can narrow down our playing field.

Or do we not want to find out who has this role because it could potentially be harmful to the town?

 

[PMJ]

RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT

The following people voted No Lynch at the time of DNA's update:

- safariblade
- doublenikesocks
- Puff
- Infinity
- One Approved
- Glace
- 9Tailz (voted twice)
- Zyflair
- oyeah1988
- King Arceus

That's only ten people. (I'm seeing people say 11. Did I miss someone?) DNA edited his post to include KA's vote, so we know he was aware of it, which means something's wrong.

If the vote count is accurate, that means one of the following is true:

- 9Tailz can cast two votes and someone else has a double vote as well
- Someone has a triple vote

One thing I can say with certainty is that when Chillarmy did his vote tally, it matched the number of people who voted. Therefore, safariblade, doublenikesocks, and Puff all have a vote weight of 1.