RE: Werewolf XVII II: The Greatest Idea (Day 7)(D/L 8/14)
Alright, here comes my in-depth analysis post. Will also serve as an explanation. Huge wall of text ahead.
Current players alive:
Luckyfire
TheGuy
James86134
Machamp The Champion
Jay
Nengeni
Fancy
Shocker
That makes for 9 players alive.
ROLES no longer in-game (may be inaccurate)
Vanilla Werewolf
Vigilante
Cop
Doctor
FBI Agent
Innocent Child
Werewolf Mason
Tracker
Unlyncher
Werewolf Roleblocker
Mafia Lover
Mafia Godfather
Roles likely to still be in game
Vanilla Townie
Lyncher
Miller
Lover
Roles confirmed still in-game
Mason(Machamp The Champion)
Alignments killed
12 townies dead
2 mafia dead
4 wolves dead
1 indie dead
UPDATE: THERE IS LIKELY TO BE ANOTHER WOLF UNLESS ALPHA WEREWOLF IS NOT REQUIRED
We haven't seen the alpha werewolf die. Unless the leader roles are not required to be apart of the wolf team, there is probably one more wolf. This also means there is a possibility there are 3 mafia left. HOWEVER, if leader roles are not required to be apart of a wolf/mafia team, then it is more likely that the wolves are dead, and there are 2 mafia left.
Reasons I agreed with Haunted Water/Red Rain:
The first time, it was because I was already making a post for PMJ. I clicked preview post, saw Haunted Water post, and decided to rework my post a bit, and then post it. I also did not vote for PMJ.
The second time, was quite admittedly, me being a bit dumb, but it was suspicious to me at the time. Looking back, it was obvious the wolves/mafia were going to kill anyone with a Doctor role.
Third time wasn't really an agreement. At the previous analysis post, I did not see the reasoning for Haunted Water's bandwagon at the time. However, I was explained to, and I understood.
Also, I already stated around a game day before the game day HW was lynched that I was starting to gain suspicion of Haunted Water. At that time, I felt his defense around being accused was a bit much. I would've voted for him earlier yesterday, but I had certain life issues to deal with.
(This refers to a certain post that I think was made by Machamp The Champion who listed 3 posts as evidence of his theory of me being too attached to Haunted Water.)
I will probably do player analysis at a later date, though I do note TheGuy could be lyncher, and I am the lynchee, as he seems especially eager to vote for me, though this could be false, as Blui did not seem inclined to vote for me at all. (Though this also could be him attempting to stay low or not make it blatantly obvious, and TheGuy supports this evidence by only voting for me when a bandwagon is starting.
Here is a nightkill analysis, and which kills I think may be mafia/werewolf. Now, before I do this one, I will state that I think the mafia was likely to have certain targets in mind. Based off confirmed mafia nightkills and confirmed werewolf kills, it seems the mafia wanted to go for rarely posting players.
First night: (Mainly unsure about this one)
SheNinja said:
Astra has been killed. He was Vigilante. 50/50
Teal has been killed. He was FBI Agent. 50/50
Lenny has been killed. He was Innocent Child. Was likely to be Astra's kill.
Night 2:
SheNinja said:
Glace has been killed. They were Doctor. Likely both teams came for him.
Night 3:
SheNinja said:
RaichuGirl has been killed. She was Vanilla Townie. Likely to be mafia, as RaichuGirl could've been suspected of being a wolf, and thus, was likely targeted to eliminate a threat to them. One of the reasons behind this logic is that the mafia seemed to have more strategy.
MDL has been killed. He was Vanilla Townie. Likely to be the wolves.
Night 4:
SheNinja said:
Rally has been killed. He was Werewolf Mason. Confirmed mafia kill. He was likely chosen because he kept to himself and seemed inactive. However, he was not known for being experienced.
King Arceus has been killed. He was Cop. Confirmed wolf kill. At this point, it seems the wolves randomly chose.
Night 5:
Sir Taco said:
PMJ
You are a Tracker.
Alignment: Town
Ability #0: Track Dat Stuff
Once per night, as often as you like, you may PM me the name of a player. You will then learn who that player targeted with their ability/abilities during that night.
Win Condition: All threats are neutralized while at least one Town-Aligned player is alive.
Confirmed wolf kill. This kill is obvious, because PMJ was a threat to the to the wolves because he could find out if a certain person was a wolf or not.
TwistedTurtwig
You are a Vanilla Werewolf.
Alignment: Werewolves
Ability #0: Conference
You may speak with any other Werewolf-aligned players (if any) at any time. This QuickTopic will be used. *url snip*
Win Condition: All threats are neutralized and Werewolves amount to at least half of the remaining players while at least one Werewolf-Aligned player is alive.
Confirmed mafia kill. It seems that the mafia at this time were targeting mainly rarely posting players
Night 6:
SheNinja said:
ChillBill has been killed. He was Werewolf Roleblocker. Same as night 5.
SoldiersSpirit has been killed. He was Mason. Could've annoyed the wolves, or they thought his reckless voting could've got one of them.
All in all, it seems the wolves were mainly inexperienced, and kept quiet to themselves, while the mafia seemed to have an idea of what they were doing.
End analysis post. If there are any problems or anything incorrect in this post, please tell me.
