Finished Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - The Order of the Phoenix is the Winner!
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RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
Anyone else find it at least somewhat suspicious? Cmon, it's kinda scummy.
I have a strong feeling about this, it looks way too towny to me. I'm not voting yet tho, as I said, just a feeling.Lenny said:
Anyone else find it at least somewhat suspicious? Cmon, it's kinda scummy.
RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
Why is that weird? I don't need to pretend to be town, I am town. I genuinely want to help the town and modkilling another townie would not help the town. The day must be really slow if you're trying to get something out of that.
Why is that weird? I don't need to pretend to be town, I am town. I genuinely want to help the town and modkilling another townie would not help the town. The day must be really slow if you're trying to get something out of that.
RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
I agree that he's really suspicious, and he is the person I want to die the most, but he hasn't been online since December 31st, meaning he's gonna get modkilled anyway. If he can avoid being modkilled today, I'm definitely up for lynching him.
I gotta agree with Vom there. This is a bit suspicious. Yes, as a townie you know you are town. But that should be a given that you think you're town. You don't need to mention "well me dying would be bad for the town" because that's obvious.
Again, being very defensive without much of any pressure being on him. This doesn't help your case at all.
PMJ said:
I agree that he's really suspicious, and he is the person I want to die the most, but he hasn't been online since December 31st, meaning he's gonna get modkilled anyway. If he can avoid being modkilled today, I'm definitely up for lynching him.
Lenny said:
I gotta agree with Vom there. This is a bit suspicious. Yes, as a townie you know you are town. But that should be a given that you think you're town. You don't need to mention "well me dying would be bad for the town" because that's obvious.
Lenny said:
Again, being very defensive without much of any pressure being on him. This doesn't help your case at all.
RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
I'm not being defensive, I'm responding to their thoughts. You'd think that if I was scum I'd have picked up on the fact that seeming defensive draws attention to me. Yet I'm still doing it so maybe, just maybe it's my play style? I hate the argument "too defensive". It's a double standard in WW. Speak too much? Defensive. Speak too little? Evading. This is how I play.
I admit saying "I'm town" sounds ridiculous when I read it again but I wasnt trying to pull some tricks. I didn't put much thought into what I was saying, I was just trying to keep you all updated as to why I haven't responded so much. I typed genuinely what came to my mind.
I'm not being defensive, I'm responding to their thoughts. You'd think that if I was scum I'd have picked up on the fact that seeming defensive draws attention to me. Yet I'm still doing it so maybe, just maybe it's my play style? I hate the argument "too defensive". It's a double standard in WW. Speak too much? Defensive. Speak too little? Evading. This is how I play.
I admit saying "I'm town" sounds ridiculous when I read it again but I wasnt trying to pull some tricks. I didn't put much thought into what I was saying, I was just trying to keep you all updated as to why I haven't responded so much. I typed genuinely what came to my mind.
RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
Now, even ignoring what you said before, this response seems scummy. Now not only are you still playing uber-defense, you're being defensive over being town? We can't just take your word that you "didn't put much thought" into your posts, as that's when slips occur. Each of your posts should have thought and reason behind them, as that is how you catch scum, by asking questions on details of their posts. The less details they can provide, the more holes are left. The more holes, the more likely they are to be scum.
I'm not voting though. Try to calm down, stop playing defense, read through what you missed, and come back with a well thought-out post, maybe provide some reads. You haven't contributed much yet, and that's what keeps me suspicious, but I want to know what you think so far about other players. We don't get that info if you only talk about yourself.
There is a time to be defensive though. It just gets scummy when you start being defensive at the drop of a hat. Speaking too much isn't defensive, nor is speaking too little evading. It's what you say and when that makes you seem scummy.Lenny said:
Now, even ignoring what you said before, this response seems scummy. Now not only are you still playing uber-defense, you're being defensive over being town? We can't just take your word that you "didn't put much thought" into your posts, as that's when slips occur. Each of your posts should have thought and reason behind them, as that is how you catch scum, by asking questions on details of their posts. The less details they can provide, the more holes are left. The more holes, the more likely they are to be scum.
I'm not voting though. Try to calm down, stop playing defense, read through what you missed, and come back with a well thought-out post, maybe provide some reads. You haven't contributed much yet, and that's what keeps me suspicious, but I want to know what you think so far about other players. We don't get that info if you only talk about yourself.
RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
Alright, here are my reads after catching up on Day 3.
Suspicions:
Squirtle Squad: I don't know much about Harry Potter lore, but nobody countered PMJ's findings of all the things wrong with the claim except Twisted Turtwig I believe (who I write about below). However, he is inactive at the moment, so it may be a wasted lynch. I still think his behavior throughout the game has been pretty scummy.
TwistedTurtwig: When the heat was on Squirtle Squad, he tried to change the topic onto Camoclone, then onto PMJ. Could be coincidence and he just followed his feelings on people, but he also thought Squirtle Squad's claim was legit and thought he was town. They could be scum buddies. However, he did claim Hagrid in the beginning, right? There was no counter-claim...so who knows. grantm1999 made the exact same point in Day 3 about potential buddying.
Ice Espeon: Told dogger to hold off on the night saving spell. Not saying that popping the ability off right now is the best time, but anything to delay such a powerful role raises a red flag in my mind. He also has been laying low pretty well the entire game and avoiding modkills.
Drohn: I know he's busy, but he pops in, posts once in Day 3, and leaves. Just someone to watch out for.
Camoclone: He hasn't been "himself" the entire day, but I don't like using that argument. Still, it's something to take note of.
PMJ: He went after Squirtle Squad pretty hard, but with decent reasoning. Whether that's scummy behavior, I'm not sure. What I do think, though, that one of them is scum. Either PMJ or SS.
If SS ends up flipping scum, I'd say look into Twisted Turtwig. If PMJ flips scum, I'm not sure who we should look into as nobody budied him much. Those are the two little groups I saw going at it Day 3. Right now, I'm not sure who I lean towards. Lynching Squirtle Squad will give us a read on more players than lynching PMJ, but as grantm1999 said, lynching another townie will be devastating right now, so whoever we pick has to be the best available target.
Strong town feelings on: Jeremy1026, Machamp The Champion, bbninjas, Celever, dogger, Teal
All the above players have provided a lot of activity and just give off a very town feel.
Players I have no idea about: TheGuy, KoN, Vom, Brave Vesperia, Wailord_2
Alright, here are my reads after catching up on Day 3.
Suspicions:
Squirtle Squad: I don't know much about Harry Potter lore, but nobody countered PMJ's findings of all the things wrong with the claim except Twisted Turtwig I believe (who I write about below). However, he is inactive at the moment, so it may be a wasted lynch. I still think his behavior throughout the game has been pretty scummy.
TwistedTurtwig: When the heat was on Squirtle Squad, he tried to change the topic onto Camoclone, then onto PMJ. Could be coincidence and he just followed his feelings on people, but he also thought Squirtle Squad's claim was legit and thought he was town. They could be scum buddies. However, he did claim Hagrid in the beginning, right? There was no counter-claim...so who knows. grantm1999 made the exact same point in Day 3 about potential buddying.
Ice Espeon: Told dogger to hold off on the night saving spell. Not saying that popping the ability off right now is the best time, but anything to delay such a powerful role raises a red flag in my mind. He also has been laying low pretty well the entire game and avoiding modkills.
Drohn: I know he's busy, but he pops in, posts once in Day 3, and leaves. Just someone to watch out for.
Camoclone: He hasn't been "himself" the entire day, but I don't like using that argument. Still, it's something to take note of.
PMJ: He went after Squirtle Squad pretty hard, but with decent reasoning. Whether that's scummy behavior, I'm not sure. What I do think, though, that one of them is scum. Either PMJ or SS.
If SS ends up flipping scum, I'd say look into Twisted Turtwig. If PMJ flips scum, I'm not sure who we should look into as nobody budied him much. Those are the two little groups I saw going at it Day 3. Right now, I'm not sure who I lean towards. Lynching Squirtle Squad will give us a read on more players than lynching PMJ, but as grantm1999 said, lynching another townie will be devastating right now, so whoever we pick has to be the best available target.
Strong town feelings on: Jeremy1026, Machamp The Champion, bbninjas, Celever, dogger, Teal
All the above players have provided a lot of activity and just give off a very town feel.
Players I have no idea about: TheGuy, KoN, Vom, Brave Vesperia, Wailord_2
RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
Mostly due to a lack of spare time, with school, college applications, and all that jazz. I'll be more active through the rest of the day phase.
You hit the nail on the head, Lenny. I followed my intuition during the last day phase, although rev3rsor's exposure drew me away from Camo and PMJ. I still genuinely believe SS to be town, although it's a shame that he's likely to be modkilled. I could have benefited from him being alive. I plan on containing to look into PMJ, so expect a case on him later on today.
Ohhhhhh no you don't, Drohn. You can't just pop in here like that, vote, then disappear. While I still have my suspicions of Camo, the fact that he's still alive isn't enough evidence to prove anything. For now...
##VOTE: Drohn
Get back here.
bbninjas said:
Mostly due to a lack of spare time, with school, college applications, and all that jazz. I'll be more active through the rest of the day phase.
Lenny said:
You hit the nail on the head, Lenny. I followed my intuition during the last day phase, although rev3rsor's exposure drew me away from Camo and PMJ. I still genuinely believe SS to be town, although it's a shame that he's likely to be modkilled. I could have benefited from him being alive. I plan on containing to look into PMJ, so expect a case on him later on today.
Drohn said:
Ohhhhhh no you don't, Drohn. You can't just pop in here like that, vote, then disappear. While I still have my suspicions of Camo, the fact that he's still alive isn't enough evidence to prove anything. For now...
##VOTE: Drohn
Get back here.
PMJ
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RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
It's not (all I did was state my case on him). Then like three people jumped down my throat for it. Scum partners to the rescue.
Looking forward to hearing a case on me so I can explain why it's ludicrous and without merit.
Lenny said:
It's not (all I did was state my case on him). Then like three people jumped down my throat for it. Scum partners to the rescue.
Looking forward to hearing a case on me so I can explain why it's ludicrous and without merit.
RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
You can say what you'd like, but even the most complete testimonies have their holes when they're not the truth!
PMJ said:
You can say what you'd like, but even the most complete testimonies have their holes when they're not the truth!
RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
I've already given reasons on Lenny, and I will fully analyze him later when I'm not supposed to be doing school. I would suggest just lynching Lenny and then me if he flips town, though I can see why (in others' opinions) that is a risky play. I am confident that Lenny is not town.
I've already given reasons on Lenny, and I will fully analyze him later when I'm not supposed to be doing school. I would suggest just lynching Lenny and then me if he flips town, though I can see why (in others' opinions) that is a risky play. I am confident that Lenny is not town.
RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
true^
true^
RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
Alright, there are 19 players left. There were 30 to start. For the sake of argument, I'm going to assume that there are 6 wolves remaining, and 1 indie remaining. This would mean that there were a total of 4 indies and 6 wolves to begin with, for a total of 10 non-town out of 30 total players. This gives the town a 2/1 ratio of town to non-town, which normally is too unfavorable for the town, but it looks like all (or at least most) of the town have some sort of beneficial ability/abilities AND a single use spell. However, 8 town (and 3 indies) are dead. This brings us to a ratio of 12/7 town to non-town. This is only 8.3% worse than how we started. So, we actually can afford a mislynch if it guarantees us a non-town the next day.
Dogger is (almost completely) confirmed town, so that brings us to 18 lynch candidates. I'm going to eliminate myself for the sake of argument, bringing us to 17 lynch candidates. I understand that the ministry group is sorta soft cleared, but I'm going to include them here anyway. Purely statistically speaking, if we lynch Lenny, we have a 6/17 chance of lynching scum, or about 35%. Now, any given person can use this logic against any other given person, so I've got some reasoning (familiar, sure) against Lenny in addition.
- He went a little nuts after I applied barely any RVS pressure with the simple statement that he is scum. I did not provide any evidence, the same as the other silly RVS votes. Yet Lenny is the one who had to argue for the whole day and the next day (iirc?) that he was not scum, feeling the need to defend himself against an accusation with no reasoning.
- His posts are mostly fluff, and those that aren't fluff are scummy (which has been agreed upon by others as well).
- There's nothing that evidences him as town. Nothing. I think the same can be said for me, but there's a difference. I am town and Lenny is not. We can prove that Lenny is not town by simply lynching him.
- I had more reasons, but am most unfortunately drawing a blank at the moment.
Now let's go with the hypothetical event that we lynch Lenny and he actually is town. Then, I will obviously seem extremely scummy. I will probably be lynched. That will be two mislynches, plus the two night kills, bringing our number to 8/7, still not losing us the game. There is also the possibility of the wolves killing off the indie (unless they know who the remaining indie is, not probable, but possible). That would bring us to 3/2, a much more comfortable ratio. By then (in either scenario), we should have at least 1 or 2 wolves figured out.
Alright, there are 19 players left. There were 30 to start. For the sake of argument, I'm going to assume that there are 6 wolves remaining, and 1 indie remaining. This would mean that there were a total of 4 indies and 6 wolves to begin with, for a total of 10 non-town out of 30 total players. This gives the town a 2/1 ratio of town to non-town, which normally is too unfavorable for the town, but it looks like all (or at least most) of the town have some sort of beneficial ability/abilities AND a single use spell. However, 8 town (and 3 indies) are dead. This brings us to a ratio of 12/7 town to non-town. This is only 8.3% worse than how we started. So, we actually can afford a mislynch if it guarantees us a non-town the next day.
Dogger is (almost completely) confirmed town, so that brings us to 18 lynch candidates. I'm going to eliminate myself for the sake of argument, bringing us to 17 lynch candidates. I understand that the ministry group is sorta soft cleared, but I'm going to include them here anyway. Purely statistically speaking, if we lynch Lenny, we have a 6/17 chance of lynching scum, or about 35%. Now, any given person can use this logic against any other given person, so I've got some reasoning (familiar, sure) against Lenny in addition.
- He went a little nuts after I applied barely any RVS pressure with the simple statement that he is scum. I did not provide any evidence, the same as the other silly RVS votes. Yet Lenny is the one who had to argue for the whole day and the next day (iirc?) that he was not scum, feeling the need to defend himself against an accusation with no reasoning.
- His posts are mostly fluff, and those that aren't fluff are scummy (which has been agreed upon by others as well).
- There's nothing that evidences him as town. Nothing. I think the same can be said for me, but there's a difference. I am town and Lenny is not. We can prove that Lenny is not town by simply lynching him.
- I had more reasons, but am most unfortunately drawing a blank at the moment.
Now let's go with the hypothetical event that we lynch Lenny and he actually is town. Then, I will obviously seem extremely scummy. I will probably be lynched. That will be two mislynches, plus the two night kills, bringing our number to 8/7, still not losing us the game. There is also the possibility of the wolves killing off the indie (unless they know who the remaining indie is, not probable, but possible). That would bring us to 3/2, a much more comfortable ratio. By then (in either scenario), we should have at least 1 or 2 wolves figured out.
RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
It is also probable that there are 5 wolves remaining, which strengthens some points and weakens some of my argument, but would be overall better for us
It is also probable that there are 5 wolves remaining, which strengthens some points and weakens some of my argument, but would be overall better for us
RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
You could benefit from him being alive? Why? Because you're scum buddies? I haven't seen any other reason why you specifically could benefit from him being alive.
At least you'll know how it feels.
TwistedTurtwig said:
You could benefit from him being alive? Why? Because you're scum buddies? I haven't seen any other reason why you specifically could benefit from him being alive.
PMJ said:
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RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 4 ends January 11th, at 23:59 GMT
If you acknowledge that the same argument could be used for you (or anyone else, actually), then why are you using it as part of your argument to get Lenny lynched?
Your whole argument to lynch him is poor altogether. It still feels like you're on a witch hunt. Respect if you're trying to not out yourself as a power role, but at this point the town is falling apart. If you have some sort of results that would help you confirm Lenny is actually scum rather than trying to use the flimsy non-arguments you used above, then maybe you should just come forward with those results?
If you acknowledge that the same argument could be used for you (or anyone else, actually), then why are you using it as part of your argument to get Lenny lynched?
Your whole argument to lynch him is poor altogether. It still feels like you're on a witch hunt. Respect if you're trying to not out yourself as a power role, but at this point the town is falling apart. If you have some sort of results that would help you confirm Lenny is actually scum rather than trying to use the flimsy non-arguments you used above, then maybe you should just come forward with those results?
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