Finished Werewolf XXXI: Grima's Rebirth - GAME OVER! TOWN WINS!

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What would the point of you having the ability that upon me getting killed has a 50% chance that you would get killed inmy place unless it was added to a safeclaim that you took?

I'm guessing it's to balance the fact that I'm guarding both of you.
 
Just checked I can confirm it's in his ability claim.

Ability: Loyal Knight
You are a sworn knight of Ylisse and the bodyguard of Chrom and Lissa, a duty you take very seriously. You put away the weapons, polish them, you even take the rocks off the road and...let’s stop there, shall we? If Chrom or Lissa would be killed, there is a 50% chance that you will die instead.
 
I can think of the best of reasons: because the GM's wanted it that way. Now drop it. And please, /please/ use punctuation marks. Your posts are getting harder and harder to understand.
 
Why is everyone disregarding @Ice Espeon? Fine, they haven't been the most active, but if we policy lynch EM so that the thread becomes more legible and he is in fact Chrom, IE is cleared beyond doubt.

I townread simsands hardcore rn and wouldn't even be thinking of his lynch if not for bb's results.
I'm making a pretty early gambit if I was town to be revealing a seer/lie-detector early, and after how morda nearly ran off with the game last game, smart me would realise that such a gambit would be much less likely to work. This means that logically simsands will be more likely flip as scum, and assuming they do, we save an entire day.
WIFOM. I think if simsands is scum it's likely you're the other scum. We don't know that you're a lie detector; you could be a seer, and your safeclaim is a lie detector because seers on the town would be too powerful. Even though lie detectors are similar to seers in terms of power (they just require the target to be cooperative) anyway.

My main issue is that bb is a cavalier/wyvern lord rn, looking at his votecount and assuming there's not a third mayor class. I can't find any character which actually fits the lie detector role well on the town which works with these classes. I can think of one or two if he's seer, though. And I can think of several scum seer roles -- both Grimleal and Valmese.
 
If not simsands, who do you think should be lynched ? If it's still KX, what is the case and how much info can we get from it?
 
If not simsands, who do you think should be lynched ? If it's still KX, what is the case and how much info can we get from it?
Either KX or Prof P. I'm not gonna build a case beyond what I've already posted about them so far itt because simsands will be lynched today, and I have other things to do. Info we can get from it? A fair amount if we look into interactions.
 
If not simsands, who do you think should be lynched ? If it's still KX, what is the case and how much info can we get from it?

There's not really any other option other than bb, unless we can clear up this mess with another lynch, but I don't see that happening.
 
Now that I can finally read posts without my mind strained from working till midnight, here are my thoughts on what happened earlier in the Day.

I'll ##UNPRESSURE: mordacazir for now; improved posts and participation.

While helpful on an otherwise uneventful Day 2, I'm still wary about bbninjas' claim and the subsequent reveal on simsands. After all, bb hasn't posted anything on his role or ability aside from what he has simply stated about it, which is easy to lie about. My main concern is that the lie-detector doesn't have any public confirmation of it being activated or working. And I don't think the role flip results completely prove it in this scenario. Because, no matter what alignment simsands flips, it doesn't confirm that bb's claimed ability was at work here. All it does is prove whether bbninjas lied or not about his conclusion on simsands' alignment. If he lied, he'd definitely have a lot to answer for, so I think that if he were scum and simsands was town, it would be too risky and so I find that scenario unlikely.

But, if simsands were to flip scum, unlike the consensus that I've read so far, I think bbninjas would NOT be completely cleared town at all afterwards. Because there's still the possibility that bbninjas is scum throwing his buddy hard under the bus. A little extreme, but not impossible. Something similar has happened in one of the older games (I think it was TheGuy's), and bbninjas has showed in the previous WW game that he's capable of making gambits. As long as that possibility exists, I can't put him as completely cleared in my list. I'm not saying he is scummy or suspect should he turn out correct on simsands' alignment, it's just that he won't be proven town. Simply put IMO, he'll go from 50 town-50 non-town chance that we are all normally at to become 75 town- 25 non-town chance, instead of 100 - 0. At first glance that sounds pointless, since you could call him "almost" town, but that ratio matters when our numbers are lesser and we'll be scrutinizing role claims and ability activation/results to decide who's truly town. Remember that it's possible for a player to be declared seemingly town in the earlier days but end up looking/flipping/proving scum in latter days upon closer analysis.

Now, as for simsands, I think he plays no differently from how he usually does, though he is less aggressive and less involved in the discussion as he was in the previous two WW games. The suspicion on him is entirely on bbninjas' claim; I haven't read any complaint about his posts themselves. As for his role claim, it is unfortunate (ironic?) that he is on the same boat as bbninjas in that there's no easy or direct way to prove his role (dying doesn't count unless he could revive or something). Just from the amount of info that can be gleaned from his situation, I'd be inclined to vote him, but he's close to lynch it looks like, so I'll hold off for now.

The parallel communications between E_M, simsands and GM Draclord is kind of odd though. What are the odds of separate private communication ending up involving the same person with how many of us there are? I think it's possible that, if simsands were to flip scum, the QT with one of the other could be a scum chat in disguise. Well, E_M is 100% town, so that lessens the possibility on his side. I can see it with GM Draclord though, considering how hard he is to read, but this is a far-branching theory for now and is a thought to be set aside for another day.

As for E_M's bizarre play, I can kind of understand the frustration, but he is still a town player that we believe. I would not support a policy lynch on him. Lynching him would be a loss to us, no matter how you spin it. The town's strength lies in its numbers, after all.
 
Now that I can finally read posts without my mind strained from working till midnight, here are my thoughts on what happened earlier in the Day.

I'll ##UNPRESSURE: mordacazir for now; improved posts and participation.

While helpful on an otherwise uneventful Day 2, I'm still wary about bbninjas' claim and the subsequent reveal on simsands. After all, bb hasn't posted anything on his role or ability aside from what he has simply stated about it, which is easy to lie about. My main concern is that the lie-detector doesn't have any public confirmation of it being activated or working. And I don't think the role flip results completely prove it in this scenario. Because, no matter what alignment simsands flips, it doesn't confirm that bb's claimed ability was at work here. All it does is prove whether bbninjas lied or not about his conclusion on simsands' alignment. If he lied, he'd definitely have a lot to answer for, so I think that if he were scum and simsands was town, it would be too risky and so I find that scenario unlikely.

But, if simsands were to flip scum, unlike the consensus that I've read so far, I think bbninjas would NOT be completely cleared town at all afterwards. Because there's still the possibility that bbninjas is scum throwing his buddy hard under the bus. A little extreme, but not impossible. Something similar has happened in one of the older games (I think it was TheGuy's), and bbninjas has showed in the previous WW game that he's capable of making gambits. As long as that possibility exists, I can't put him as completely cleared in my list. I'm not saying he is scummy or suspect should he turn out correct on simsands' alignment, it's just that he won't be proven town. Simply put IMO, he'll go from 50 town-50 non-town chance that we are all normally at to become 75 town- 25 non-town chance, instead of 100 - 0. At first glance that sounds pointless, since you could call him "almost" town, but that ratio matters when our numbers are lesser and we'll be scrutinizing role claims and ability activation/results to decide who's truly town. Remember that it's possible for a player to be declared seemingly town in the earlier days but end up looking/flipping/proving scum in latter days upon closer analysis.
Nice, someone else has stated this ;)
The parallel communications between E_M, simsands and GM Draclord is kind of odd though. What are the odds of separate private communication ending up involving the same person with how many of us there are? I think it's possible that, if simsands were to flip scum, the QT with one of the other could be a scum chat in disguise. Well, E_M is 100% town, so that lessens the possibility on his side. I can see it with GM Draclord though, considering how hard he is to read, but this is a far-branching theory for now and is a thought to be set aside for another day.

As for E_M's bizarre play, I can kind of understand the frustration, but he is still a town player that we believe. I would not support a policy lynch on him. Lynching him would be a loss to us, no matter how you spin it. The town's strength lies in its numbers, after all.
EM isn't 100% town, and has admitted to attacking other townies with his weapon at night. The town's strength lies in its numbers, I agree. EM is actively going out of his way to reduce these numbers.
 
Alright, EM's calmed down enough for me to not want to policy lynch him.

##UNVOTE: Empoleon_Master
##VOTE: simsands

Now, simsands. The lie detector is a difficult thing to get around for simsands. If simsands flips town bb is scum. If simsands flips scum bb is town.
 
Nice, someone else has stated this ;)

EM isn't 100% town, and has admitted to attacking other townies with his weapon at night. The town's strength lies in its numbers, I agree. EM is actively going out of his way to reduce these numbers.

Which other townie?
 
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