What does it take to win a BR or a City event?

Well, here's the cool part. I just played BlazeRay with Garchomp C and went 3-1.
My loss was to Machamp, but ONLY due to time.
 
ThePokemonProfessor said:
Exactly, now increace the chances.
If you run 4 Spiritomb, 4 Call Energy, 4 Bebe's, 2 Luxury Balls, and some Great Balls maybe, there is at least a 154% Chance you will get at least one of those. Therefor, you and ensured a good start.
But then you need to worry about not overdoing it. In say Shuppet-Donk, you're drawing at least 20 cards per turn usually, you NEED to get an Expert belt, but you don't want anymore then 1. If I we're to run 4 of them in my deck to enure I get one, I'd end up with all 4 most of the time, witch would screwup my Uxies, therefor causing me to draw less, so I get less PokePowers and Poke Turns
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But it can't be 154% chance because a 100% chance means I always get one. And no matter what you do as far as probability it isn't impossible to get one useless basic and six energy.
StealthAngel667 said:
Yeah, well, what with consistency and all, sometimes it just won't work. I tested my LuxApe deck about 50 times before playing it, and from the 6 tournament matches I played with it, I lost 4 because it took 5+ turns to draw into a Supporter (of which I played 10, go figure) or other useful cards.
So basically, you should always have a backup plan in case these things happen. A lot of top tier players throw in a single Chatot to help in these cases.
Anyway, thing is, sometimes even with the best deck you still can't win. And a lot depends on your matchups. So in a way, yes, luck is involved.
Concluding, you should playtest a lot, but results from the past won't guarantee results in the present.( That's a dutch expression, lol. )
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The problem there may be mainly because you didn't shuffle enough or shuffled in a bad way. If you shuffle really well, that sucks. Lol.
 
Celebi23 said:
But it can't be 154% chance because a 100% chance means I always get one. And no matter what you do as far as probability it isn't impossible to get one useless basic and six energy.
StealthAngel667 said:
Yeah, well, what with consistency and all, sometimes it just won't work. I tested my LuxApe deck about 50 times before playing it, and from the 6 tournament matches I played with it, I lost 4 because it took 5+ turns to draw into a Supporter (of which I played 10, go figure) or other useful cards.
So basically, you should always have a backup plan in case these things happen. A lot of top tier players throw in a single Chatot to help in these cases.
Anyway, thing is, sometimes even with the best deck you still can't win. And a lot depends on your matchups. So in a way, yes, luck is involved.
Concluding, you should playtest a lot, but results from the past won't guarantee results in the present.( That's a dutch expression, lol. )
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The problem there may be mainly because you didn't shuffle enough or shuffled in a bad way. If you shuffle really well, that sucks. Lol.
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To your first point, no, it is possible. I started a game against Kingdra donk once, 3 steel(basic), 3 electric, and an unown G. A guy who posts here, his name is The Captain, he posted in my cities report, he judge shuffled my deck and thats what I got.
 
^
Okay here's some easy probability for you guys-
Let's say you play Kingdra, you obviously need a horsea start to donk(usually)
You play 4 horseas so
1 in every 15 cards is horsea
That means that since you essentially start w/ 8 cards that you'll get horsea start about 1/2 times, a bit less though because that's including 8 cards, if you get say something else you prolly can't donk. So then you play a different decks that needs to get a good start-Call OR spiritomb or Gastly, that deck has 12 cards it needs to start so
12 in 60 equals
1 in every 5 cards you get will be a card required for a good start-
Clearly some decks are more consistent than others and that's why Gengatomb did good towards the end of cities, sure SPs have that engine but they NEED a Cyrus to get started, Gengatomb can get other stuff and thus get better starts most of the time. Some decks are just plain out more consistent, you are playing SPs which can be INSANELY inconsistent w/out a Cyrus especially if you don't run claydol, so just putting that out there.
 
Yeah I know but he's saying there's more than a 100% chance to get a card you need in your starting hand which is simply not possible. The cards are perfectly capable of lining up with the top seven being 6 energy and 1 Uxie. While it's unlikely, it isn't impossible.
 
Celebi23 said:
Yeah I know but he's saying there's more than a 100% chance to get a card you need in your starting hand which is simply not possible. The cards are perfectly capable of lining up with the top seven being 6 energy and 1 Uxie. While it's unlikely, it isn't impossible.
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That is true, you can't win all of them, but you can make it extremely unlikely.
Let's take Steven Silversto's deck as an example, it uses six energy total. Technicaly it is enough to get 1 bad basic and 6 energy, but you can make it impossible. How? Shuffle alot and shuffle good. If u shuffle good then it's impossible for all 6 of the energy to be next to each other. If you're really that worried about it, before a match put all your energy next to each other. When you shuffle with say a 6 pile shuffle it's impossible to get 6 energy and a bad basic. (This is taking a deck with 6 energy as an example though, if you have more energy there is a very slight chance of it still happening)

Edit: 200 Posts FTW
 
Dude, it isn't impossible. I don't personally know anyone who shuffles as well as I do and in Battle Roads I drew 4 energy, Uxie, Energy Gain and a Poke Turn for my starting hand one game. The fact is that the top seven cards in your deck can be 6 energy and an Uxie in a deck that is well-shuffled.
 
^that is a fact. random means random! ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN AND YOU CAN MANIPULATE YOUR LUCK ALOT WITH THE RIGHT CARDS BUT AT THE END OF IT ALL ITS STILL A CARD GAME.which allows for uncontrollable draws.
 
think positive and be confident. good things will come your way. till then just practice, vs. anyone you can, get to know the game inside and out. be comfortable with your deck, study it, figure out its flaws and fix them. luck comes and goes, im not gonna go as far as to put a mathematical equation on it but like many others have said just don't put yourself in situations where you might have to resort to luck. as for drawing a bad hand, look its going to happen, not just to you but your opponent as well, whats going to determine the winner of the match is not luck but the person who is most prepared. dont get me wrong luck does play a role but its not the main factor.
 
Or if you're highly superstitious, you can be like my friend, who says the heart of the cards will help him prevail. I just think the kid watched way too much yugioh, because unfortunately that tactic made him go 0-5 at cities.
 
from a two time city champion i believe i can give some valuavle info on what i do, a lot of people say its all in the luck and how good your deck is my issue with this is pokemon has a big luck factor but it generally doesnt make a big impact on tournement performance. to me its all about NOT net decking and practice. no body know your deck like you sure you can copy and paste a list and play it half decent but when questioned about every card in it i sincerely doubt you could tell me why this card and not another one. play with what you know, by this i mean if you know X deck is big dont play something that doesnt perform 100% against X deck be prepared to make changes according to your meta. getting better at the game requires time and dedication. consistancy is key.
there are a lot of different variables that affect tournement performance.
 
Celebi23 said:
Yeah I know but he's saying there's more than a 100% chance to get a card you need in your starting hand which is simply not possible. The cards are perfectly capable of lining up with the top seven being 6 energy and 1 Uxie. While it's unlikely, it isn't impossible.
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Yeah, that whole 100% is a joke(I tried to show real math to prove them wrong :p
But shuffling it's always possible to get a bad start, I don't care what ANYONE says, it can/will happen and if you get it, you just have to fight on and hope that the 8th card is a good one :p

edit-When I played Gyarados this weekend I had not one,not two but THREE lone Magikarp starts and I won two of them(the one I lost was a topdeck to a warp point....)
 
shadoworganoid said:
@to everyone.
Im not say I rely on luck to win, Im saying, Luck is what stops me from winning.

Practice I know.

But Practice does not affect the odds of getting a decent oppening hand.


You could be the best player in the WORLD, and if your opponening hand consists on 4 energy, a few recovery cards, and a single basic pokemon, you arent going to win. UNLESS you can top deck somthing that will save you. But for that, you need luck again.
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If you feel that your loses are accounted to some outside force. Then the outcome will always be the same. If the only answer is in something that you can't change, find a different question. Ask yourself, "is there anything i can do to be better" and then search for an appropriate answer.

I meant no offense by this post, from what i have seen, you are a decent player and have wicked ideas, i hope you take this post in a "non emotional" way and approach it "educationally" :)
 
lol, dont worry. Its fine.

Besides, I played BlazeRay with Garchomp C last week and went 3-1. So far, choosing a Teir 1 deck is helping.
 
^
Yes I agree that's usually my approach(except when I played Rotom as a Joke deck :p
Just a thought though, try to figure out your Metagame too, that's why i played Gyarados
2 LuxApe
1 Blazeray
1 FlyChamp
1 Dialga/Garchomp
1 Gengatomb

While I know those aren't all great matchups I had a list that worked around it(no Unown G, but I found better ways to beat those decks) and I walked in confidently and well would've made top cut if not for byes....
Also I had praticed w/ it for about 4 months.(not at tourneys but I loved my list)
 
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