Finished Mafia 53: Twilight's Kingdom

[Keeper of Night]

##VOTE: Celever

The inconsistency in Zone's reveal of you being town, and you hearkening back to that clearing you when you know full well that Zone himself is a huge suspect right now doesn't help your case even a little bit. Not right now anyway.
You're absolutely right that 1 mafia in the next two days is what we want, and the best way to do that is to lynch you today. If you're scum then we're done here. If you're town and Camo doesn't die tonight, then he's scum and we get him tomorrow. If you're town and Camo does die tonight then we get Jabber.

If Celever is the scum, then we get Zone next. If Celever is town, then after following the above steps, we know Drac has to be the remaining scum. Either way, lynching Celever clears one side or the other, giving us the most information going into tomorrow.

Even if you don't agree with that logic yourself, Celever, you cannot say lynching Jabber "ties a bow on this saga" because if he does flip town then we're back to exactly where we are today. Except Camo may or may not be dead. The difference between lynching you and lynching Jabber, though, is we know Jabber would buff scum permanently. We don't need to trade info for that if we can help it.

 

[bbninjas]

You're absolutely right that 1 mafia in the next two days is what we want, and the best way to do that is to lynch you today. If you're scum then we're done here. If you're town and Camo doesn't die tonight, then he's scum and we get him tomorrow. If you're town and Camo does die tonight then we get Jabber.

If Celever is the scum, then we get Zone next. If Celever is town, then after following the above steps, we know Drac has to be the remaining scum. Either way, lynching Celever clears one side or the other, giving us the most information going into tomorrow.

If we follow with this plan, and if Celever is town, we lose if we mislynch again - that means that we need to be 100% certain on Drac (or whoever gets lynched Day 6). We need to get 1 mafia in the next two days, sure. But we also need to get 2 mafia in the next 3. Those are different odds.

 

[Keeper of Night]

If we follow with this plan, and if Celever is town, we lose if we mislynch again - that means that we need to be 100% certain on Drac (or whoever gets lynched Day 6). We need to get 1 mafia in the next two days, sure. But we also need to get 2 mafia in the next 3. Those are different odds.

If we can clear Zone (or incriminate him) by lynching Celv it puts us in the best possible position. We'll know tomorrow which of Camo/Jabber/Zone needs to be lynched based on all claims.

 

[Zone Q11]

Hm... do you want me to full claim to make you change your mind? Because I do have a passive that prevents me from dying once by lynch. ...if you think that us wasting a Day is worth it.

Welp. I assume that nobody pays attention to me then. As per usual.

 

[bbninjas]

Yeah, I think you're right. The more I think about it, the more I think we can pull off two correct lynches consecutively since I'm not worried about you or Mariano.

Welp. I assume that nobody pays attention to me then. As per usual.

That's why no one's proposing lynching you first.

 

[bbninjas]

What do you think about Keeper's plan, Zone?

 

[Zone Q11]

That's why no one's proposing lynching you first.

...wut? Nobody proposes to lynch me because they don't pay attention to me? What do you even want to say by this?

What do you think about Keeper's plan, Zone?

Again: Wut?
Keeper's plan is to lynch Celever. You know, the guy that I said to be town based on my ability?
And the next target is -oh let's see: Me?

Are you kidding me?

 

[Celever]

Yeah, I think you're right. The more I think about it, the more I think we can pull off two correct lynches consecutively since I'm not worried about you or Mariano.

Why not? Like, jw. We're at the point where we have so many clears that not properly considering Keeper or Mariano isn't a play we can make.

##VOTE: Celever

The inconsistency in Zone's reveal of you being town, and you hearkening back to that clearing you when you know full well that Zone himself is a huge suspect right now doesn't help your case even a little bit. Not right now anyway.
You're absolutely right that 1 mafia in the next two days is what we want, and the best way to do that is to lynch you today. If you're scum then we're done here. If you're town and Camo doesn't die tonight, then he's scum and we get him tomorrow. If you're town and Camo does die tonight then we get Jabber.

If Celever is the scum, then we get Zone next. If Celever is town, then after following the above steps, we know Drac has to be the remaining scum. Either way, lynching Celever clears one side or the other, giving us the most information going into tomorrow.

Even if you don't agree with that logic yourself, Celever, you cannot say lynching Jabber "ties a bow on this saga" because if he does flip town then we're back to exactly where we are today. Except Camo may or may not be dead. The difference between lynching you and lynching Jabber, though, is we know Jabber would buff scum permanently. We don't need to trade info for that if we can help it.

This is sub-optimal because it uses 2 cycles to accomplish what could be accomplished in one. Plus, if we lynch Jabs and he does flip scum, Camo no longer has to kill himself tonight so we could potentially have a very optimal play by lynching him. Lynching me is always mediocre because it's removing the least likely option for scum first which I understand the logic behind and it's a failsafe of sorts, but equally nah, your scenario of "if Cel's town and Camo does die tonight then we get Jabber" works just as well for "if Jabs is town and Camo does die tonight, then we get Cel". Why do you prefer the first scenario over the second?

What specifically changed about Drac for you, @Celever?

Because most of the better options have become townier, lol. I don't hard scumread anyone right now.

 

[Celever]

hugs zone

I read your posts.

I mean, I'm the last person you need reading them right now.

But I do Dx

 

[Zone Q11]

hugs zone

I read your posts.

I mean, I'm the last person you need reading them right now.

But I do Dx

Welp. At least one person reads them...
Sigh. Still no response on whether I should claim or not though, and I have to work soon... Which means I am gone for 8 hours.

...welp. I have one or two breaks, so please give me the answer then. Because I don't think I will ever be seen considered as a town at this rate.

 

[Celever]

Welp. At least one person reads them...
Sigh. Still no response on whether I should claim or not though, and I have to work soon... Which means I am gone for 8 hours.

...welp. I have one or two breaks, so please give me the answer then. Because I don't think I will ever be seen considered as a town at this rate.

Claiming you is unnecessary because everyone is looking at this game like more of a chess game than they are using their reads right now

 

[Keeper of Night]

...wut? Nobody proposes to lynch me because they don't pay attention to me? What do you even want to say by this?

Again: Wut?
Keeper's plan is to lynch Celever. You know, the guy that I said to be town based on my ability?
And the next target is -oh let's see: Me?

Are you kidding me?

Only if he flips scum, because then you'd be lying, see? If he flips town you're clear. It only makes sense.

This is sub-optimal because it uses 2 cycles to accomplish what could be accomplished in one. Plus, if we lynch Jabs and he does flip scum, Camo no longer has to kill himself tonight so we could potentially have a very optimal play by lynching him. Lynching me is always mediocre because it's removing the least likely option for scum first which I understand the logic behind and it's a failsafe of sorts, but equally nah, your scenario of "if Cel's town and Camo does die tonight then we get Jabber" works just as well for "if Jabs is town and Camo does die tonight, then we get Cel". Why do you prefer the first scenario over the second?

I literally already answered this:

The difference between lynching you and lynching Jabber, though, is we know Jabber would buff scum permanently. We don't need to trade info for that if we can help it.

So you're absolutely right the scenario works both ways. Think of it this way though, assuming that by lynching you and Camo dying we then confirm that Jabber is scum, yes?
So by that logic we clear Zone. The remaining scum is Drac. We lynch Drac, then the next day we lynch Jabber. We confirm who the scum are without purposely buffing them.
I find this scenario very unlikely since I fully read Jabber as town, but I do consider it possible.

I'm allowing 1 mislynch in this plan. That mislynch has to be today, and it has to get us as much information as possible. Unfortunately, Celv, regardless of whatever read I have on you, you being tied to both Jabber/Camo and Zone separately makes you the ideal candidate.

 

[Celever]

Only if he flips scum, because then you'd be lying, see? If he flips town you're clear. It only makes sense.


I literally already answered this:

So you're absolutely right the scenario works both ways. Think of it this way though, assuming that by lynching you and Camo dying we then confirm that Jabber is scum, yes?
So by that logic we clear Zone. The remaining scum is Drac. We lynch Drac, then the next day we lynch Jabber. We confirm who the scum are without purposely buffing them.
I find this scenario very unlikely since I fully read Jabber as town, but I do consider it possible.

I'm allowing 1 mislynch in this plan. That mislynch has to be today, and it has to get us as much information as possible. Unfortunately, Celv, regardless of whatever read I have on you, you being tied to both Jabber/Camo and Zone separately makes you the ideal candidate.

How would that clear Zone?

 

[Keeper of Night]

Because if you flip town then Zone's claim was right and it clear up the inconsistency in his quoted reveal. I can't see why scum would try and clear a townie.

 

[Celever]

Because if you flip town then Zone's claim was right and it clear up the inconsistency in his quoted reveal. I can't see why scum would try and clear a townie.

For towncred.

 

[Keeper of Night]

For towncred.

...So are you making a case against Zone here? Because I liked that lynch too. Problem is we don't have any better evidence for that than what we've been given by Jabber here to warrant a wrong lynch elsewhere.
Funny how you're trying to throw the one guy attempting to bail you out under the bus now that you're in danger of being lynched. My vote stands.

 

[Celever]

...So are you making a case against Zone here? Because I liked that lynch too. Problem is we don't have any better evidence for that than what we've been given by Jabber here to warrant a wrong lynch elsewhere.
Funny how you're trying to throw the one guy attempting to bail you out under the bus now that you're in danger of being lynched. My vote stands.

I'm not trying to throw him under a bus. I'm just pointing out that your plan is flawed, and it is, because you reached the end of the line with your arguments, so oof.

I mean, it was flawed from the off for everyone but you because you're a perfectly valid scumspect.

But now it's flawed FYPOV too.

 

[Keeper of Night]

I'm not trying to throw him under a bus. I'm just pointing out that your plan is flawed, and it is, because you reached the end of the line with your arguments, so oof.

I mean, it was flawed from the off for everyone but you because you're a perfectly valid scumspect.

But now it's flawed FYPOV too.

Naw, see you're cornered is the problem. Watching you squirm is fun though.
My role is out there, revealed, I'm an ability seer and bomb, both of which have been major points of discussion at several points. You either believe it or you don't at this point. All my results (save my own ability) have been counted and shared in-thread. And if we can believe Mariano is town (which let's face it, he like 99% is) then it strengthens that claim because I had no chance to modify my role (or safe-claim) at all.

No plan here can be 100%. But lynching you does, still, without question, give the best reads on Camo, Jabber, and Zone going forward. You can't argue otherwise because nobody is as uniquely tied to them like you are.

Leave everybody else aside for this puzzle. Including me or any other scum reads you have. We know one of you, ninjas, Camo, or Jabber is scum. 100% that has to be the case. If we limit this problem to you 4 (3 with ninjas being confirmed) we can very, very easily move forward from that point since Camo can self-destruct tonight. I'm not going to keep repeating myself, but we can't lynch Camo today. It's either you or Jabber, and Jabber has more risk involved and he has no connection to Zone or Drac at all.
We need better reads on the two outliers here to move past this situation, because there's only one scum left after we're through it.

 

[PMJ]

It is 5 to lynch. Numbers in parentheses represent the post number of the vote.

@Camoclone - Ability Effect (918), Ability Effect (918), @NinjaPenguin (919) @bbninjas (946) L-2
@Zone Q11 - Camo (920) @Keeper of Night (929), Camo (970) L-4
@Jabberwock - Camo (922) @Mariano11887 (924) @Celever (998)
bb - Jabber (955)
]Keeper - Mariano (961)
Mariano - @GM DracLord (966)

Not voting: Camoclone, bbninjas, Zone

This is recent as of post 1017. Everyone is tagged for activity.

Day 4 ends Sunday, September 9, at 4 PM CST (Timer), or whenever someone is lynched.

Reminder you have until end of day to submit an answer for the final Friendship Activity.

 

[bbninjas]

...wut? Nobody proposes to lynch me because they don't pay attention to me? What do you even want to say by this?

Whoops - looks like I misinterpreted what you were implying by "Welp. I assume that nobody pays attention to me then. As per usual.". You were pointing out that noone weighed in on whether or not you should full claim, not that people were ignoring your lynchproof claim.

Again: Wut?
Keeper's plan is to lynch Celever. You know, the guy that I said to be town based on my ability?
And the next target is -oh let's see: Me?

Are you kidding me?

What Keeper said.

Why not? Like, jw. We're at the point where we have so many clears that not properly considering Keeper or Mariano isn't a play we can make.

I appreciate that you think you (and Zone) are clear beyond reasonable doubt, but I am not on the same page. I can see you busing Luis (especially if he was in risk of a modkill at that time), and I can see you developing a plan with Zone, because this would leave you unsuspected for the remainder of the game. Perfect. Beyond those indicators, I have no particular reason to see you as town (especially in contrast to Keeper and Mariano). Mariano incorrectly thought he caught Keeper as scum, and outside an elaborate dumbtell play, this reads genuine. He's then clearly very confused about Keeper's bomb claim (i.e. he's misinformed), and has appeared quite certain that Keeper is lying --- but if Mariano is scum, he knows that Keeper is town and should be telling the truth, making his efforts eventually pointless. Keeper has been very thorough (and consistent) with his evaluation of Jabber's dream, which has significantly improved my read on him, because it shows that he's not pushing an agenda (i.e. keep him and a buddy safe). He's also been actively helpful (and again, apparently underinformed) through his use of his Farewell Ability scan, and the information that he gains clearly informs his choice of lynch (consistency ++).

You coincidentally disappeared from the thread while we had some of the most significant discussions of the game. You still managed to avoid explaining why you had been reading Drac the way you had (you basically said that it no longer mattered). The fact that you are so strongly opposed to the idea of you specifically being lynched, the only viable play if you're scum, does not help make matters clearer. A townsperson would, theoretically, be flexible and thoughtful.

I'd say that Jabber is just as "cleared" as you are. I am pretty convinced that scattered protected Jabber Night 1, which is why scattered chose Jabber for the dream. The only instance in which this doesn't clear Jabber is if I was the nightkill target that night, which I think is unlikely since I just joined the game. Between a Cel lynch or a Jabber lynch, I think your lynch would result in clearer information (although I am still working this through).

//

Anyone feel free to answer, but I'd specifically like @Keeper of Night's response: If one of Jabber or Camo is lynched and flips scum (or in Camo's case, confirmed a liar), shouldn't that automatically clear Cel and maybe Zone because we can't have 4 mafians? If both Jabber and Camo are town, that would incriminate Cel and Zone. That means we should achieve the same result no matter who is lynched, and if Jabber is scum, we'd have to lynch him and let him buff scum at some point anyway.

Leave everybody else aside for this puzzle. Including me or any other scum reads you have. We know one of you, ninjas, Camo, or Jabber is scum. 100% that has to be the case. If we limit this problem to you 4 (3 with ninjas being confirmed) we can very, very easily move forward from that point since Camo can self-destruct tonight. I'm not going to keep repeating myself, but we can't lynch Camo today. It's either you or Jabber, and Jabber has more risk involved and he has no connection to Zone or Drac at all.

Can you repeat why this is?