Naw, see you're cornered is the problem. Watching you squirm is fun though.
My role is out there, revealed, I'm an ability seer and bomb, both of which have been major points of discussion at several points. You either believe it or you don't at this point. All my results (save my own ability) have been counted and shared in-thread. And if we can believe Mariano is town (which let's face it, he like 99% is) then it strengthens that claim because I had no chance to modify my role (or safe-claim) at all.
No plan here can be 100%. But lynching you does, still, without question, give the best reads on Camo, Jabber, and Zone going forward. You can't argue otherwise because nobody is as uniquely tied to them like you are.
Leave everybody else aside for this puzzle. Including me or any other scum reads you have. We know one of you, ninjas, Camo, or Jabber is scum. 100% that has to be the case. If we limit this problem to you 4 (3 with ninjas being confirmed) we can very, very easily move forward from that point since Camo can self-destruct tonight. I'm not going to keep repeating myself, but we can't lynch Camo today. It's either you or Jabber, and Jabber has more risk involved and he has no connection to Zone or Drac at all.
We need better reads on the two outliers here to move past this situation, because there's only one scum left after we're through it.
bb just pointed this out, but the fact that Zone has seered me doesn't really give us any more information. If we were to lynch me then the main scumspects would still be Drac, Camo, Jabs, and Zone. Here the course splits off into if I'm mafia then you lynch Zone, if I'm town you lynch either Jabs or Camo depending on if Camo suicides or not. Either way, you hit mafia. The next day, you're either left with a Drac vs Jabs scenario, or a Drac vs Zone scenario. Either way, Drac'll get lynched, and we'll probably win off that.
If we were, instead, to lynch Jabs today then the scumspects would be Drac, Camo, Cel, and Zone. Here, it splits off into if Jabs flips mafia, Camo doesn't have to die tonight and we get to lynch Drac and then I guess Zone if necessary over the course of the next 2 days and basically win because the other mafia is probably in there. If Jabs flips town, then you lynch either me or Camo depending on if Camo suicides or not (which he won't, cos I'm town :U). And we're left in the same position of lynch Drac, lynch Zone if necessary, and we win from that.
In short, whether we lynch me or Jabs today baaasically doesn't matter in the long-term. Lynching Jabs has the potential for optimality, though, as if Jabs just straight-up flips scum Camo doesn't have to kill himself.
Whoops - looks like I misinterpreted what you were implying by "Welp. I assume that nobody pays attention to me then. As per usual.". You were pointing out that noone weighed in on whether or not you should full claim, not that people were ignoring your lynchproof claim.
What Keeper said.
I appreciate that you think you (and Zone) are clear beyond reasonable doubt, but I am not on the same page. I can see you busing Luis (especially if he was in risk of a modkill at that time), and I can see you developing a plan with Zone, because this would leave you unsuspected for the remainder of the game. Perfect. Beyond those indicators, I have no particular reason to see you as town (especially in contrast to Keeper and Mariano). Mariano incorrectly thought he caught Keeper as scum, and outside an elaborate dumbtell play, this reads genuine. He's then clearly very confused about Keeper's bomb claim (i.e. he's misinformed), and has appeared quite certain that Keeper is lying --- but if Mariano is scum, he knows that Keeper is town and should be telling the truth, making his efforts eventually pointless. Keeper has been very thorough (and consistent) with his evaluation of Jabber's dream, which has significantly improved my read on him, because it shows that he's not pushing an agenda (i.e. keep him and a buddy safe). He's also been actively helpful (and again, apparently underinformed) through his use of his Farewell Ability scan, and the information that he gains clearly informs his choice of lynch (consistency ++).
That's fine, and I'm not necessarily saying Keeper and Mariano are mafia. But I don't think they're less-so than myself or Zone are, and I just think you should keep an open-minded plateau. If we lynch Jabs today we totally avoid having to properly read any of the 4 of us (at least for 2 more days) anyway so it's by-the-by, but we've had players who everyone assumes is town for not infallible reasons ride out the rest of the game plenty of times on this site.
bb said:
You coincidentally disappeared from the thread while we had some of the most significant discussions of the game. You still managed to avoid explaining why you had been reading Drac the way you had (you basically said that it no longer mattered). The fact that you are so strongly opposed to the idea of you specifically being lynched, the only viable play if you're scum, does not help make matters clearer. A townsperson would, theoretically, be flexible and thoughtful.
I mean, it has been my first week back at school, and so therefore an adjustment (I have to take the train there now Dx). Like ik activity excuses are annoying but I haven't been on Discord because my phone borked too, and I missed the deadline in Taskmaster, which definitely isn't something I'd do for the sake of mafia, before anyone suggests that it is. Hell, I even referred to this time period in the pre-game, so :L
I've said from the start that it was primarily gut read and unwillingness to equate bad play with scummy play. Every case on Drac has been about bad play, from what I've seen, and no one's actually pointed out why he's mafia over unhelpful townie. My read has changed because of PoE. That's all.
This is a perspective debate that's happened in online mafia for aeons and will continue to happen for aeons more. Some people think that a town should allow themselves to be lynched for the sake of the greater good. Some believe that a town shouldn't. I fall into the second camp because it's invariably against a town's win condition to allow themself to be lynched, as that's using the town's main tool to widen the gap between town and anti-town to instead close the gap between the town and anti-town's numbers, and the best laid plans of mice and men, besides. Not that this debate even necessarily applies to this situation, because as shown further up in this post, lynching Jabs is on-paper the better play anyway.
bb said:
I'd say that Jabber is just as "cleared" as you are. I am pretty convinced that scattered protected Jabber Night 1, which is why scattered chose Jabber for the dream. The only instance in which this doesn't clear Jabber is if I was the nightkill target that night, which I think is unlikely since I just joined the game. Between a Cel lynch or a Jabber lynch, I think your lynch would result in clearer information (although I am still working this through).
Disregarding the Luis lynch, I'd agree with you. Including it, I just think it's a lil weird to put us on an even platform. It's not necessarily wrong, just weird, FMPOV.
