What does this mean?
Yup.
My Ability results in my death. That's how it confirms me.
Finished Mafia 53: Twilight's Kingdom
- Thread starter PMJ
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So you are confirming that there is no actual way to prove you are town without you dying?
So Celever gave us a scum, Ninjas is confirmed town and you... Are a duplicate JOAT role that cannot be confirmed.
Noted, still waiting for Celever's input.
So Celever gave us a scum, Ninjas is confirmed town and you... Are a duplicate JOAT role that cannot be confirmed.
Noted, still waiting for Celever's input.
...
Your "feelers" are making you vote somebody that is likely town? And you aren't even trying to keep up with the thread? Or contribute at all? Am I reading this right?
There is nothing in that post which explains why you want to disregard the whole dream result thing and go off lynching Zone instead.
How much of the thread are you reading? Mariano claimed seer/JOAT a while back. The odds of him being scum aren't too high, and in all honesty I can't even tell why you're voting him in the first place.
Because I die tonight and BB supposedly becomes confo town. All evidence points toward Zone being scum. I feel more confident hitting zone then I do hitting the 50-50 of BB-Celever. NP is also a good choice as we need to get rid of him before MYLO and getting that out of the way now is way better then doing it later. Also I don’t completely trust you.
Are you saying that you will die tonight using the ability? Or are you suspecting scum will kill you?
I know you already said your ability results in your death, I just want to confirm you are using it tonight.
I do believe either Drac or Zone is scum, I am okay with either of them being lynched, but not getting info from the trio of suspected players doesn't help either.
If you were to die tonight, then we'll know to lynch Celever tomorrow after Zone today, since he'd be the only remaining one from Jabber's list.
If Zone is the scum, as it's probably another 50/50 between him and Drac, then I think there'd only be one scum left, yeah? The numbers don't make sense for there to be 4 scum + 1 indie. For my money it's either Celever or Jabber at that point (assuming Camo is telling the truth).
I do believe either Drac or Zone is scum, I am okay with either of them being lynched, but not getting info from the trio of suspected players doesn't help either.
If you were to die tonight, then we'll know to lynch Celever tomorrow after Zone today, since he'd be the only remaining one from Jabber's list.
If Zone is the scum, as it's probably another 50/50 between him and Drac, then I think there'd only be one scum left, yeah? The numbers don't make sense for there to be 4 scum + 1 indie. For my money it's either Celever or Jabber at that point (assuming Camo is telling the truth).
His likely town in other view. I never formed that view on him as far as my previous post. I read the thread but half the time it full of paragraph blocks that contained to much info that I easily mixed them up.
I read all the post but I don't remember most of them. Not much that really attract my attention. I might have missed "Seer" claimed that you stated.
##UNVOTE
The first one. I will die tonight using my ability.
So... Camo is basically asking us to trust him. This is a pretty similar scenario to when I suggested trusting Luis (to kill NP); Camo was one of those who was most vocally opposed to the idea. What makes this trust exercise different? If Camo has a way to screw with the town (e.g. an extra nightkill), we're pretty much up the creek.
Would GM Drac have been blocked by Camo's Ability 2? (And didn't NP also claim being blocked at some point?)
Anyways, have some number crunching. These are the numbers if we lynch Camo today (and he's town), and then mislynch the day after that:
D4: 6-2-1 ---> mislynch Camo 5-2-1 ---> 1 nightkill ---> D5 4-2-1 ---> mislynch 3-2-1 ---> 1 nightkill ---> D6 2-2-1. This leaves the game in NP's hands; shaky odds, but probably the safest. (If NP causes the night to skip with his Ability then we have solid odds, but this is again reliant on NP / NP not being blocked.)
If we let Camo (town) live the night, he dies, and we lynch Jabber or Cel (and they flip town), we have:
D4: 6-2-1 ---> mislynch Jabber / Cel 5-2-1 ---> Camo dies, nightkill --> D5 3-2-1. We are guaranteed to hit scum (Cel / Jabber); N5: 3-1-1 ---> nightkill ---> D6 2-1-1. Not bad. However, if we mislynch again, we have: 0-1-1, game over. If two townies die during a single night at any point in future, we cannot afford to mislynch more than once, at any point. The most likely final 4 would be Zone, GM Drac, Keeper, NP, and I wouldn't be confident with a correct lynch then.
We have the exact same numbers if Camo (scum) lives the night, and if we mislynch Jabber or Cel, assuming that their will be a double nightkill at some point (necessary precautions). If there is no double nighkill, the numbers are actually great for us: (D5 4-2-1 --> lynch Camo for lying --> 4-1-1 --> D6 3-1-1.)
Would GM Drac have been blocked by Camo's Ability 2? (And didn't NP also claim being blocked at some point?)
Anyways, have some number crunching. These are the numbers if we lynch Camo today (and he's town), and then mislynch the day after that:
D4: 6-2-1 ---> mislynch Camo 5-2-1 ---> 1 nightkill ---> D5 4-2-1 ---> mislynch 3-2-1 ---> 1 nightkill ---> D6 2-2-1. This leaves the game in NP's hands; shaky odds, but probably the safest. (If NP causes the night to skip with his Ability then we have solid odds, but this is again reliant on NP / NP not being blocked.)
If we let Camo (town) live the night, he dies, and we lynch Jabber or Cel (and they flip town), we have:
D4: 6-2-1 ---> mislynch Jabber / Cel 5-2-1 ---> Camo dies, nightkill --> D5 3-2-1. We are guaranteed to hit scum (Cel / Jabber); N5: 3-1-1 ---> nightkill ---> D6 2-1-1. Not bad. However, if we mislynch again, we have: 0-1-1, game over. If two townies die during a single night at any point in future, we cannot afford to mislynch more than once, at any point. The most likely final 4 would be Zone, GM Drac, Keeper, NP, and I wouldn't be confident with a correct lynch then.
We have the exact same numbers if Camo (scum) lives the night, and if we mislynch Jabber or Cel, assuming that their will be a double nightkill at some point (necessary precautions). If there is no double nighkill, the numbers are actually great for us: (D5 4-2-1 --> lynch Camo for lying --> 4-1-1 --> D6 3-1-1.)
Is Mariano considered 'cleared' only because he role-scanned Keeper and then claimed thinking he caught scum? If Camo is town then I would be very comfortable with a a Mariano lynch, because I don't think there would be two JOATs.
Speaking of which, what other JOAT abilities have you used so far @Mariano11887?
Generally, I don't like how Zone has gotten quite, and I still don't like that Cel has disappeared because I've definitely seen him reading the thread.
Speaking of which, what other JOAT abilities have you used so far @Mariano11887?
Generally, I don't like how Zone has gotten quite, and I still don't like that Cel has disappeared because I've definitely seen him reading the thread.
...just to make sure: Are you completely disregarding my claim of Celever being town? If so, then it is fine. If not, then please re-evaluate.
Not L-1. It is L-2. Had he been L-1, then I would have been the one to strike last. Unfortunately I was still on V/LA when bbninjas made it L-1.
It's called tunneling. Anyone whom I have played with had always had done this becaudr of my play style which is constantly regarded as flip flopping. Sigh.
In case anyone asks, here is how I see you all:
Cel - Confotown
Mariano - Confotown
bb - Confotown (Because nobody counterclaimed his role.)
Keeper - Town
NP - Harmless Indie
Jabber - Townlean (Because I forgot all information about him.)
Drac - Scumlean (For his recent behavior of voting Mariano.)
Camo - Scum (For quite literally everything I have said, attacking me, and still not letting NP go after everything I said.)
Oh, right, I had forgotten that Zone scanned Cel. It is possible that we have a Zone / Cel / Luis scumteam I suppose, but it would be very risky considering how early in the game they cleared / bussed each other. If either one of Zone or Cel got lynched / killed and flipped scum, the other is dead next - so they would be dancing on a knife's edge all game (unnecessarily, mind you).
@Zone Q11, can you claim the full ability that you used to scan Cel?
@Zone Q11, can you claim the full ability that you used to scan Cel?
To be honest, yeah. That is what I think of him.
Well I would've voted Camo had he not been in L-2...
I already did. It's the one that Camo uses to attack me, saying that it was a misquoted or edited safeclaim even though I don't know what happened to it either.
The idea of Celv + Zone working together to lynch out Luis for town cred is only seeming more and more likely. Better post in a bit.
Hm... do you want me to full claim to make you change your mind? Because I do have a passive that prevents me from dying once by lynch. ...if you think that us wasting a Day is worth it.
Anyone genuinely pursuing Cel + Zone + Luis scumteam is being tinfoil and should stop oof.
I don't townread Drac after today anymore, he's a fine lynch. So is NP.
From where I stand, it makes the most sense to lynch Jabs today. I don't hugely want to and still think it was a fairly nonsensical gambit to pull as mafia, considering Zone had already claimed me as town, and Twilight was still unclaimed. But it could simply be that he wanted a public townie on the list to make it more believable (if PMJ had just sent him the top 3 suspects we'd all shelve the lead immediately and lynch him) and he simply didn't think about Twilight. My issue is just that the mafia team were still in a somewhat advantageous position, so it's such an odd gambit for them to choose to make today. Something seems intuitively wrong with arguing that Jabs is scum.
But looking at it purely rationally and not intuitively, lynching Jabs today ties a bow on this saga and allows us to move on. We know bb is town (I had my suspicions to start with but I remembered a previous PMJ game where my role was confirmed town by flavour, no one believed me when I said it was, and in post-game PMJ said that yes the role was designed to be cleared via flavour). We know I'm town (me and Luis weren't big scumspects at the time and Zone was being chipped away by Camo but didn't have much other public support. The only way I'm not town is with that specific scumteam, and you can call this WIFOM all you want, but there's no way that scumteam wouldn't've tried to ride out lynches on Drac, Camo, bb, Keeper or Jabs, as all 5 were overall more suspicious than any of us at the time which would make the gambit less-so risky and moreso boneheaded). This leaves Jabs and Camo today. We lynch Jabs today and Camo dies tonight, we lynch Zone tomorrow and probably win, or Drac the day after and p much definitely win. We lynch Jabs today and Camo doesn't die tonight, we lynch Camo tomorrow and are in a pretty good position anyway. 1 mafia lynch per 2 day phases is a good ratio.
Who do I personally think is scummiest right now? Probably Drac, yeah, followed by Keeper. But that doesn't mean anything now because one of Camo or Jabs has to be mafia, which unless we did have a 4-person mafia team all along, means one of Drac and Keeper has to be town. I'd sooner give the BoD to Drac over Keeper, because I think a mafian would've panicked and showed more signs of flux in reads / been told by his team to change up his playstyle because it's making him suspicious. Keeper has appeared a lot townier throughout, but I'm unsure about a lot of the positions he's held. I would have to go back to mill through and that's unlikely because school (hence why I haven't been here (and didn't wanna sign up in the first place)) but eh there you go.
For now, ##UNVOTE ##VOTE: Jabberwock
I don't townread Drac after today anymore, he's a fine lynch. So is NP.
From where I stand, it makes the most sense to lynch Jabs today. I don't hugely want to and still think it was a fairly nonsensical gambit to pull as mafia, considering Zone had already claimed me as town, and Twilight was still unclaimed. But it could simply be that he wanted a public townie on the list to make it more believable (if PMJ had just sent him the top 3 suspects we'd all shelve the lead immediately and lynch him) and he simply didn't think about Twilight. My issue is just that the mafia team were still in a somewhat advantageous position, so it's such an odd gambit for them to choose to make today. Something seems intuitively wrong with arguing that Jabs is scum.
But looking at it purely rationally and not intuitively, lynching Jabs today ties a bow on this saga and allows us to move on. We know bb is town (I had my suspicions to start with but I remembered a previous PMJ game where my role was confirmed town by flavour, no one believed me when I said it was, and in post-game PMJ said that yes the role was designed to be cleared via flavour). We know I'm town (me and Luis weren't big scumspects at the time and Zone was being chipped away by Camo but didn't have much other public support. The only way I'm not town is with that specific scumteam, and you can call this WIFOM all you want, but there's no way that scumteam wouldn't've tried to ride out lynches on Drac, Camo, bb, Keeper or Jabs, as all 5 were overall more suspicious than any of us at the time which would make the gambit less-so risky and moreso boneheaded). This leaves Jabs and Camo today. We lynch Jabs today and Camo dies tonight, we lynch Zone tomorrow and probably win, or Drac the day after and p much definitely win. We lynch Jabs today and Camo doesn't die tonight, we lynch Camo tomorrow and are in a pretty good position anyway. 1 mafia lynch per 2 day phases is a good ratio.
Who do I personally think is scummiest right now? Probably Drac, yeah, followed by Keeper. But that doesn't mean anything now because one of Camo or Jabs has to be mafia, which unless we did have a 4-person mafia team all along, means one of Drac and Keeper has to be town. I'd sooner give the BoD to Drac over Keeper, because I think a mafian would've panicked and showed more signs of flux in reads / been told by his team to change up his playstyle because it's making him suspicious. Keeper has appeared a lot townier throughout, but I'm unsure about a lot of the positions he's held. I would have to go back to mill through and that's unlikely because school (hence why I haven't been here (and didn't wanna sign up in the first place)) but eh there you go.
For now, ##UNVOTE ##VOTE: Jabberwock
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