Finished Mafia LVIII: Project Fusion- GAME OVER: Mafia Wins!

[NinjaPenguin]

At the end of your response you said that you feel like your votes are always good ones and people should pile on. Then why wouldn’t you just vote? What’s the real harm? Surely you can still find association tells, piling on to you I doubt will be the only thing people do. I’d like to hear your real motive.

I’m keeping my vote on you until you give an undebatable and valid reason. I’d change my vote if you can provide the former.

I can make a good vote that I feel is the best option now, but I can also wait and get valuable association tells so I can make a more informed and better decision. I don't really want to get into the intricacies of VCA because that makes scum better at avoiding being caught by it but in basic not knowing my opinion makes everybody else (think they) have more power to control their outcomes. By tomorrow it will be time when we need to shift towards deciding on the lynch for today and I'll place a vote then but for now I don't have the time to get info via pressuring (this would be the optimal play here instead of sitting back, but sitting back is better than plopping down a vote and not doing anything with it) so I'll instead focus on what can give me the best info with the time I have and that's taking a step back, asking questions, and analyzing what everybody does left to their own devices.

Also everybody piling on is anti-town simply because I'm human and can be wrong so I always think it's beneficial by EoD to have two wagons (outside of redchecks and LYLO) at the very least because of the VCA and lack of stagnancy it provides. Even when both wagons are town, the way people treat them can be revealing in a way that everybody piling onto one mislynch cannot. My votes are what I believe to be the best ones for that day so I get why they ought to be sheeped that day, but people not piling on is more beneficial for gamestate theoretically as long as they believe they are voting the scummiest player (i.e. while piling on my wagon results in more scum on average being lynched today, not doing so results in more scum on average being lynched over the duration of the game). Do you get what I'm saying?

tl;dr I don't have enough time to properly pressure and I don't have enough confidence in my reads so I'm doing this for now.

Do you scumread me more than you scumread Zone and Morda currently or is there another reason for your vote?

 

[NaganadelIsBeast]

I can make a good vote that I feel is the best option now, but I can also wait and get valuable association tells so I can make a more informed and better decision.

So do that instead of only responding to me like you did in your previous post. Ask some more questions like you didn’t in this or your other recent post. You said the best thing to do was to step back and ask questions. But then you said voting would be the optimal play, so I’m a little confused...

(this would be the optimal play here instead of sitting back, but sitting back is better than plopping down a vote and not doing anything with it)

If it’s the optimal play, why not just do it? Who says you didn’t have to do anything with it?

Also everybody piling on is anti-town

IMO you’re super convinced that people will sheep you and only you, which is very potentially wrong. On another note, what harm is there to the town if they agree with a claim you made.

tl;dr I don't have enough time to properly pressure and I don't have enough confidence in my reads so I'm doing this for now.

Do you scumread me more than you scumread Zone and Morda currently or is there another reason for your vote?

I thought in your last post you said that you said that you think all votes you make are good ones right? I think if you can take a mere ten minutes to look back, you can find a decent vote. A lot has happene

I vote you to pressure you, and it worked. I need nonrefutable evidence for my vote to be removed.

 

[Scattered mind]

Day 2 Vote Count #4

4 votes for a majority
The player with the most votes is tagged
If you think there’s anything wrong, just ask

TeamAqua4Life #HEYNICK (0) - ZoneQ11
@NaganadelIsBeast (1) - ZoneQ11, Ephemera
@Zone Q11 (1)- NaganadelIsBeast
@mordacazir (1)- Celever

Not voting: TeamAqua4Life, NP, mordacazir, ZoneQ11

@mordacazir - this is the second warning you get. Please post at least once a rl day. You have till the next vote count to post or you will be subbed out/modkilled.
Next activity drop there will be no warnings and you will be automatically removed from the game. Ew that is a long warning. Anyway you get what I'm saying.

Day 2 ends in about 45 hours from this post.

 

[Zone Q11]

@scattered mind, what happened to Naga's vote on NP at Post #191?

@NaganadelIsBeast, I don't know what came to you, but whatever it is, keep it going.

@Celever, I have a proposal: Let us wait one whole RL day, and see whether Morda is modkilled or not. If he doesn't get modkilled, I'll vote him as well.

In the meantime, let's see where this goes.

##VOTE NinjaPenguin

 

[Scattered mind]

@scattered mind, what happened to Naga's vote on NP at Post #191?

I don't see ##UNVOTE
so the older one takes it to the VC.

 

[Zone Q11]

I don't see ##UNVOTE
so the older one takes it to the VC.

...alright then, let's play it that way.

 

[Celever]

@Celever, I have a proposal: Let us wait one whole RL day, and see whether Morda is modkilled or not. If he doesn't get modkilled, I'll vote him as well

Oh yeah, sure thing.

Though that means I have to place my vote on someone else. As I said, I think the 3Ns are town and honestly Zone too (though this may be an incredible double bluff where he forms his meta as one thing and then as scum diverges from it so we all say "well, he'd never do that as scum" and then he endgames and wins lol).

Of the remaining options, well.... there isn't one.

##UNVOTE
##VOTE: Ephemera

This isn't just baseless gut process of elimination. I can't find a rationale for the statement "Ephemera is posting from a town perspective". I can't find one for the inverse either (that they're posting from a scum perspective), but I can find a rationale for Nick, NP, Naga and Zone to support their posting from a town perspective.

I just get this unassailable vibe that Ephemera is trying to play us.

 

[NinjaPenguin]

Lmao Naga's posting either comes from a deep tunnel or a scum perspective and I can't even tell which because he's not listening to anything. I explained why it's better to not place a vote rather than place one if I don't have the requisite time to pressure with it and apparently you're refusing to listen so there's nothing I can do about it. This is mafia and you'll never have hard evidence but I have some pretty good one that after literally everybody townread me yesterday it makes no sense why I wouldn't be carrying the nightkill last night if I was scum (but yet Nick tracked me going nowhere).
I do find it quite interesting how you've completely dodged my question about me being higher on your readlist than Zone/morda multiple times even though it is a key thing to help me understand your own alignment when I've taken the time to help you understand the thought process behind why I've done something (then again, it's not like you've cared to read my response and actually think about what I've said (e.g. that second quote in your response is a huge strawman when I literally said I don't have the time to properly apply pressure which would become incredibly obvious if you read what I said or the tl;dr)). If you'd answer that question with anywhere near the amount of detail I've been trying to provide you, that would be great.

We've got to start deciding on a lynch so currently I'm at about:
Nick-Cel town
Zone-Naga-Ephemera lean town (Zone townier than the other two, the other two in no particular order)
Morda lean scum

I can't find a singular post that says "Morda is posting from a town perspective." Morda also fits well into a team with all of the above townleans, of which at least one has to be scum.
I think it's also ridiculous to wait out the day for a potential modkill before voting morda here because if he starts posting and it doesn't happen, we likely don't have enough time to fully consider a morda wagon's composition since everybody will be joining in a relatively short period of time. We can still vote morda and talk about our metaphorical 2nd place votes which I think would be much more useful too in terms of looking at progression.
So let's:
##VOTE: Mordacazir
@@2ND PLACE if Morda town: Ephemera
Mostly because I have no clue why Naga (and Zone to a lesser extent, but Zone is also townier than Ephemera) interacts with morda in this way if he's scum and morda is town. Ephemera's treatment of morda has been more noncommittal which can work as a team but also can simply work if they want to keep morda's mislynch equity.
@@2ND PLACE if Morda scum: Naganadel
Their progression on morda (town->scum without ever applying a vote despite morda being lower on their readlist than me) there makes Naga the best connection to morda as scum here.

 

[Celever]

I think it's also ridiculous to wait out the day for a potential modkill before voting morda here because if he starts posting and it doesn't happen, we likely don't have enough time to fully consider a morda wagon's composition since everybody will be joining in a relatively short period of time. We can still vote morda and talk about our metaphorical 2nd place votes which I think would be much more useful too in terms of looking at progression.

For me, I think it's better to iron out the second-place option more concretely on the off-chance mord comes in and claims a provable role. The best and clearest way to do that is with votes. Especially considering inactivity around deadline, where Piplup claimed too close to deadline and therefore was wrongfully lynched.

@mordacazir, as soon as you get into this thread claim your role. Me, NP and Zone are all for definite voting you at deadline, and that's enough for a lynch if the other 4 players don't band together against a player voting for you (me, NP or Zone) and that seems inconceivable right now.

 

[NinjaPenguin]

For me, I think it's better to iron out the second-place option more concretely on the off-chance mord comes in and claims a provable role. The best and clearest way to do that is with votes. Especially considering inactivity around deadline, where Piplup claimed too close to deadline and therefore was wrongfully lynched.

That's what my "if morda is town" second option is. If he claims a townie provable role, you can count my vote on Ephemera for now.

 

[Ephemera]

Ok. Two matters to be addressed here, one quicker than the other.
Long post, please read though...

First: Naga's tunneling of NP. (did i use the word tunneling right? i hope so)
Naga saw NP as scummy at the start of the day. Iirc, it was because of his inactivity, so when NP posted, Naga backed off. Then NP didn't want to vote b/c he was afraid of people sheeping him, a valid point. Naga digs into this, asking NP why he won't vote, wants a undebatable reason. Not the most valid tunnel. Naga seems quite sus, even more than D1.

However, let's get to the bigger point: Morda.

Morda has been inactive for a while, and may either get mod killed or subbed out if he doesn't post soon.
Let's examine the possibilities of what might happen.

Morda doesn't post, and gets modkilled
Two paths this could take:

• Morda flips town -> see section on Morda seeming town below
• Morda flips scum

If Morda flips scum, NP's position as town gets almost cemented. I don't think any scum would pressure their scum buddy as much as NP has tunneled Morda.
Given that Zone and Nick are likely town, this leaves me, Naga, and Celever, who also has been pressuring Morda a lot today.
So, process of elimination, Naga is most sus if Morda flips scum. Granted, Morda saw Naga as sus a lot D1, continuing until now, but if I've eliminated the other possibilities, the remaining must be so.
Ergo:
I'll push for Naga's lynch if Morda dies and flips scum.

If Morda posts
Celever wants Morda to post his role, which is appropriate, given that if he doesn't, he'll likely be lynched.
This leads to two more possibilities.

• Morda doesn't cooperate, seems scummy, or something of that sort -> Morda lynch
• Morda posts his role, and seems town

If morda is/seems town, Celever and NP seem to want me as a lynch candidate.
I should approach this carefully. I can be aggressive all I want when pressuring someone else, but I have to reason properly to defend myself.

NP thinks I'm potential scum if morda is town b/c I've been noncommittal regarding Morda's suspiciousness.
I have indeed been relatively neutral about morda, but only because I found other people more sus.
D1, I found Piplup's reasoning to be lacking, and went for him, only to have him claim provable town too close to lynch time. However, I believe that my pursuing of Piplup was correct at the time.
D2: I currently find Naga more suspicious, and more worth pursuing, than morda. At least, I thought pressuring Morda would have little reaction, due to his inactivity.
Also, Morda has indeed been defensive enough to seems slightly suspicious, but not enough to merit close pursuit from even more people, in my opinion.
NP's reasoning is sound, but it's just that I think others were worth pursuing more at the time.

This isn't just baseless gut process of elimination. I can't find a rationale for the statement "Ephemera is posting from a town perspective". I can't find one for the inverse either (that they're posting from a scum perspective), but I can find a rationale for Nick, NP, Naga and Zone to support their posting from a town perspective.

I just get this unassailable vibe that Ephemera is trying to play us.

Celever wants me as a lynch if morda seems town b/c he can see all the others being town, or having town motives.
I don't really get this...
How to address this...
Reading people can be wrong, you know. Simply having a town-seeming rationale behind posts can be manipulation by scum, but I won't get into that.
However, rationale isn't everything.
Could you give more thoughts than that?
Given that we may reach lylo tomorrow, or even today if morda is modkilled, I think a lynch on me if morda is town/seems town should have more basis.

Defense section is done. Now let's get to the info we get.

If morda is town or seems towny, this makes things different.
Zone and Nick are probably town in any case. This leaves four people.
I have given arguments against myself.
Given that there are likely two scum (otherwise we'd be at lylo right now), the two would be some combination of Naga, NP, and Cel.
Naga seems sus, and their views on Morda seem to flip-flop quickly, as well as their views on others.
NP has been going at Naga, and Naga at NP, for some part of D2. I doubt they would be scumbuddies.
Thus, only one of them would be scum, and their scumbuddy would be, from elimination, Celever.
I personally think Naga would be more likely scumbuddies w/ Cel, b/c Cel helped out Naga a lot D1, I believe NP made a post calling him out on it.
But Celever would be the more certain vote... have to think about this.
Thus, if morda seems town, or flips town, I'll be pushing for a Celever or Naga lynch.

Final possibility, and the one that I can't predict:

Morda doesn't post, and a sub takes his place
Well. I guess the sub would be sus, but I don't know. The behavior of the potential sub would be quite unpredictable right now.
I'll analyze this if I get to it.

TL,DR:
If morda seems/flips town, Naga/NP and Celever are likely scum, I think.
If morda is scum, or seems scummy, Naga is likely his scumbuddy. Lynch whichever of them is still alive.
If morda gets subbed out, I really don't know.

 

[Ephemera]

(gosh it was hard to organize my thoughts there)

 

[Ephemera]

Addition:
In the meantime, I'll keep my vote on Naga, cuz it's an overlap in the possibilities.

 

[NaganadelIsBeast]

Oops, sorry Zone.

##UNVOTE

I do find it quite interesting how you've completely dodged my question about me being higher on your readlist than Zone/morda multiple times even though it is a key thing to help me understand your own alignment when I've taken the time to help you understand the thought process behind why I've done something (then again, it's not like you've cared to read my response and actually think about what I've said (e.g. that second quote in your response is a huge strawman when I literally said I don't have the time to properly apply pressure which would become incredibly obvious if you read what I said or the tl;dr)). If you'd answer that question with anywhere near the amount of detail I've been trying to provide you, that would be great.

To be fair, I never dodged your question about you being higher on my read list than Zone/Morda. I said I voted you to pressure you, and it worked. So not sure what you’re finding interesting. I have read your posts though. My reasoning behind this is that if you can take the time to write giant posts like that, you can also take the time to go back and find a decent vote. You are making a strong argument, so I’ll keep my vote off for now (mostly because I want to see morda’s role). I’ll go into full depth about that question.

I put you higher than Zone and Mord because I’m not as suspicious of you as them. I have stated why I’m sus of Zone, and I’ve taken the time to listen about how morda’s posts are NAI, and thus people are sus of me because of my changing opinion on Mord. (Which is another story). Anyway, when I went back to collect some notes, I found your and Zone’s small argument about sheeping. I thought that Zone should’ve pursued that further, so I voted you to pressure you. It worked. In your response, you stated you felt all your votes were good ones and people should pile on. But you also said that you don’t have the time. I said in my response if placing a vote is the optimal play, why not do it. As I said, my reasoning behind that is if you have time to write huge posts like that, you must have the time to go back and find a good vote. There’s my answer.

 

[Celever]

@Ephemera what's your basis for reading Zone (and Nick, but moreso Zone) as town above myself, NP and Naga?

 

[Zone Q11]

I can't find a rationale for the statement "Ephemera is posting from a town perspective".

I can't find a singular post that says "Morda is posting from a town perspective."

Surely I am not the only one seeing this? Is this meant as a joke? There was a two hour gap between Cel's post and NP's, so this being a coincidence is unlikely.

At the moment I don't see Mera being a scum, given the fact that they've given us that long post.
If Morda flips town, I could only see NP as a scum who puts Mera at second place only to have Cel vote with him the very next Day.

This is mafia and you'll never have hard evidence but I have some pretty good one that after literally everybody townread me yesterday it makes no sense why I wouldn't be carrying the nightkill last night if I was scum (but yet Nick tracked me going nowhere).

Wouldn't it be reverse psychology? It is because that you are town that TIs like Nick look at you, which would mean that it is more logical for your scumbuddy to have done the nightkill.

 

[NinjaPenguin]

@Ephemera What is your current prediction for morda's flip? Also, if he flips scum but Naga flips town, who would you think is most likely to be his partner? Sorry if you answered these two questions already.

Zone and Nick are probably town in any case.

Why? This seems like thread consensus but what's your particular reason for following it?

I believe NP made a post calling him out on it.

I don't believe I ever did so. I called out Cel yesterday before Piplup's flip though if that's what you're talking about.

My reasoning behind this is that if you can take the time to write giant posts like that, you can also take the time to go back and find a decent vote.

Nah it takes more than just finding a decent vote but adding good pressure behind it. Pressuring is a lot more time intensive than just writing steam of consciousness like I do.

I’m not as suspicious of you as them

Do you still feel that way?

Surely I am not the only one seeing this? Is this meant as a joke? There was a two hour gap between Cel's post and NP's, so this being a coincidence is unlikely.

Yeah it's a joke.

If Morda flips town, I could only see NP as a scum who puts Mera at second place only to have Cel vote with him the very next Day.

What if he flips scum?

Wouldn't it be reverse psychology? It is because that you are town that TIs like Nick look at you, which would mean that it is more logical for your scumbuddy to have done the nightkill.

Are you saying Nick checked me because he read me as a townie or do you have TMI and know I'm one?
With the exception of watchers, TIs should always check players who they see as scummy or neutral (I've heard debate between the two but nobody thinks town) to confirm/deny suspicions and remove people from the PoE so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

 

[Zone Q11]

Yeah it's a joke.

Alright then.

What if he flips scum

In that case Naga is obviously dead meat.

Are you saying Nick checked me because he read me as a townie or do you have TMI and know I'm one?
With the exception of watchers, TIs should always check players who they see as scummy or neutral (I've heard debate between the two but nobody thinks town) to confirm/deny suspicions and remove people from the PoE so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

Huh? What use would there be for a Tracker-Watcher if it doesn't visit a town? Moreso about the Watcher-part.

It seems that we have different opinions on this topic. Welp, one way to find this out: @TeamAqua4Life #HEYNICK, why did you choose NP as your target N1?

 

[NinjaPenguin]

In that case Naga is obviously dead meat.

What if he flips scum and Naga is somehow town?

Huh? What use would there be for a Tracker-Watcher if it doesn't visit a town? Moreso about the Watcher-part.

Not with Nick's motion detector, since he couldn't actually see who/how many players visited his target, only that they were visited, which is no help at all. With motion detector, the tracker half is what matters.

 

[NaganadelIsBeast]

Nah it takes more than just finding a decent vote but adding good pressure behind it. Pressuring is a lot more time intensive than just writing steam of consciousness like I do.

Do you still feel that way?

Oh, it does? I thought it took less time than that.

And yes, I still feel that way.